The Good Phight - All PostsSmall victories, large defeats.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/33221/favicon.ico2024-03-18T09:00:00-04:00http://www.thegoodphight.com/rss/current/2024-03-18T09:00:00-04:002024-03-18T09:00:00-04:002024 Season Preview: the State of the Bullpen
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<img alt="Wild Card Series - Miami Marlins v. Philadelphia Phillies - Game One" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/peudJsrNcXLHNnYhYX9bDf72RYg=/0x2:8192x5463/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73214922/1704954283.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Let’s keep a good thing going</p> <p id="nK9MlY"><em>Players in camp: José Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti, Austin Brice, Connor Brogdon, Max Castillo, Dylan Covey, Seranthony Dominguez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Yunior Marte, Griff McGarry, Luis F. Ortiz, Ricardo Pinto, José Ruiz, Michael Rucker, Nick Snyder, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm, Spencer Turnbull</em></p>
<p id="EiOSaq"><em> Expected to make the roster: José Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm, two of the following: Connor Brogdon, Yunior Marte, Spencer Turnbull, Luis F. Ortiz</em></p>
<p id="C0waNH"><em> </em></p>
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<p id="OLsONA"> Bullpens are typically not flashy. An individual member may be (yes, closers, we’re looking at you), but taken as a unit, there’s really only two reasons you’ll hear about a bullpen: either they’re good enough to attract wider attention, or they’re enough of a liability to demand it. Fortunately for the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>, their 2023 bullpen was the former. They pitched less than any other bullpen in baseball (543.1 innings), but contributed an outsized amount; per fWAR they contributed more wins (6.8) than all but two other bullpens (those of the Dodgers and Orioles). Their combined ERA of 3.58 was in the top third of the league, as was their combined FIP. By any measure, they were a potent force. With most of last year’s unit returning (Craig Kimbrel being the most notable departure), they’re poised to be one of the biggest strengths of the Phillies once again. </p>
<p id="HQNdRQ"> José Alvarado is a name familiar to all Phillies fans, and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. Since being acquired from Tampa Bay after the 2020 season, Alvarado has been a mainstay of the Phillies relief corps. His first season in Philly was shaky, with a walk rate among baseball’s very worst. But Alvarado regained his control in 2022, and since then he’s been a true weapon. In 2023 he ditched his already scarcely seen curveball and four seamer, leaving just the sinker and cutter. Variety is clearly not the spice of Alvarado’s life, and clearly he doesn’t need it: Alvarado posted a career best ERA of 1.74 across 41 innings in 2023; his WHIP of 1.16 was his best since 2018. The cutter was thrown slightly less often than its partner, and seemed to be the deadlier of the two, producing whiffs 44.5% of the time for a batting average of .181 against, as compared to 24.6% and .210 for the sinker. Alvarado figures to be a steadying presence once again in 2023; you’ve come to expect him when the leverage is high, and his success in those situations comes as no surprise.</p>
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<p id="rWHHI2"> In his 6<sup>th</sup> season with the Phillies, Seranthony Dominugez is the elder statesman of the bullpen, but after 2024 he has a few questions to answer. He’s been a highly effective reliever for the Fightins before and certainly can be again, but his 2023 season was not up to his usual standard. His ERA of 3.78 was a substantial downgrade from the mark he set a season before, and his strikeout rate plummeted from 29.5% in 2022 to 21.4%, a career-worst. He simply didn’t make batters miss as much in 2023, with all of his pitches inducing fewer whiffs than they had a year prior. Batters hit his slider less than they had in 2022, but every other pitch he thew was hit more often in 2023 than the year prior. His velocities and pitch mixes remained relatively constant, but something clearly wasn’t working quite right. Still, his track record of success suggests his 2023 is more likely to be aberration than emergency. </p>
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<p id="LCVsGD"> It’s not common for fans to get excited about a rookie reliever, but you can see why Orion Kerkering is a name well known to the Phillies faithful. Namely, that deadly slider. It’s the sort of pitch that makes fans dream and opponents fling their bats, the sort of pitch that gets classified as that hard-to-define, know-it-when-you-see it- thing called <em>stuff</em>. This is the year that expectation becomes actual, whatever that actual ends up looking like. The sample size for Kerkering at the major league level is too small to be meaningful, but there’s every hope that Kerkering will prove himself to be a truly lethal threat coming out of the bullpen this year.</p>
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<p id="lC6DVl"> Those are the biggest names in the bullpen, but the Phillies will have plenty of capable, if less famous, hurlers to turn to. Jeff Hoffman will look to build on a career-best year in 2023, in which his K% spiked to 33.2, nearly 10% better than his previous best. He also dropped his BB% to under 10% for the first time, while inducing batters put the ball on the ground more and over the fence less. All he has left to prove is that he can do it again. Gregory Soto, entering his second season with the Phillies, has a bit more to prove. He was a different pitcher in 2023, with his excellent fastball used less, and his increasingly impressive slider used much more. His BB% dropped into the single-digits for the first time, although his control is still nothing to write home about. His ERA of 4.62 and his xERA of 2.79 told two very different stories; Soto will have to show in 2024 that the latter is more reflective of who he is now. Matt Strahm showed the ability to start when needed last year, but he’ll be in the bullpen to start 2024, where his solid 2023 numbers (K% 30.8, BB% 6.0) suggest reliability in addition to the versatility.</p>
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<p id="GbeG9v"> Other members of the Phillies bullpen are looking to right the ship in 2024. Andrew Bellatti is coming off of a down year (ERA 5.11, K% 22.1, BB% 10.6), but if he can return to the form he displayed in 2022 (ERA 3.31, K% 33.9, BB% 10.9), he’ll be a solid asset again. The same is true for Connor Brogdon, whose 2023 also featured a career high in ERA (4.03) and a career low in K% (20.5). Yunior Marte produced middling results last year (ERA 5.03, K% 20.9, BB% 9.3); he’s entering just his 3rd MLB season, but at the age of 29, he’ll have to show that he’s got untapped potential if he wants to keep his spot. Then again, as the example of his rotation-mate Hoffman shows, 29 isn’t so old that a career’s shape is necessarily set in stone. Similarly, Luis F. Ortiz, having reached 28 with only 27 MLB innings under his belt, will have to sharpen his arsenal if he wants to become a bullpen regular. Dylan Covey showed the potential to be a solid reliever in 2023, but his low propensity to get punchouts (K% 15.6) is a concern; a shoulder injury means he won’t be on the roster on Opening Day. </p>
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<p id="WJowPH"> There are a few new names in camp for the Phillies at the moment: Michael Rucker, acquired from the Cubs after being DFA’d, will look to make improvements with the input of new coaches, as will Jose Ruíz, signed to a minor league contract after last playing for the Diamondbacks organization. Spencer Turnbull, signed to a 1-year contract after starting his career with the Tigers, will look to bounce back from a middling 2023; though his overall stats don’t leap off the page, the fact that he’s got a major-league no-hitter on his resumé certainly does. His past as a starter gives him the ability to serve as a capable long reliever.</p>
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<p id="2tlw97"> One more name merits special mention, and it’s one that you’ve likely heard before, although perhaps not in conjunction with relief. Griff McGarry, one of the Phillies’ top prospects, <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/3/12/24098039/griff-mcgarry-moved-to-the-bullpen-for-now">has just been moved to the bullpen</a>. For some time now observers have noted that his profile—ferocious stuff, questionable control—may be better suited for a relief role. There’s no guarantee that McGarry will show up in the Citizens Bank Park bullpen in 2024 (or that he’ll end up staying on the relief path, as a return to starting was mentioned as a distinct possibility by Rob Thomson), but keep an eye out.</p>
<p id="iTOPgG"> Bullpen performance, like so much in life, is not guaranteed to remain the same. An injury here, a regression there, and a once-mighty unit can look pedestrian once again. Still, it is undeniable that the Phillies have the pieces needed to assemble one of baseball’s standout bullpens once more. What a relief.</p>
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https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/3/18/24104272/2024-season-preview-the-state-of-the-bullpenJaredRFrank2024-03-18T08:00:00-04:002024-03-18T08:00:00-04:00Zack Wheeler: Opening Day starter
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<img alt="Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kFt_BsANw7kT5Htw_ZeSrtGrnDY=/0x0:6214x4143/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73214779/2062546227.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p><em>Expected? Maybe. Deserving? Sure is.</em></p> <p id="QkDJ7b">It’s been a bit of an expected move, one that felt more like an predetermined outcome, but on Sunday the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> made the decision official. Zack Wheeler will start for the team on Opening Day.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rob Thomson says that Zack Wheeler will start on opening day.</p>— Alex Coffey (@byalexcoffey) <a href="https://twitter.com/byalexcoffey/status/1769454381349359681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 17, 2024</a>
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<p id="X3Fxem">Aaron Nola has started the past six Opening Day games for the Phillies, so some thought that the honor would be his to continue, but now it’ll be Wheeler.<a href="https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/zack-wheeler-named-phillies-2024-opening-day-starter"> It’s actually something that Nola himself has endorsed to happen</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p id="GbwLwx"><em>“Wheels should take it,” Nola said. “He’s earned it, man.”</em></p></blockquote>
<p id="xmuGy9">I’ve always wondered what the players feel about something that is largely ceremonial. On paper, it doesn’t really matter who starts the first game so long as whoever does makes all of his starts during the season. You, of course, will be facing the opposition’s best pitcher as well, so putting out your best pitcher to face him is the norm. But in those first few games, teams tend to be little more conservative with how much their starters throw being as how they’re still coming off of spring training. Bullpens play a pretty big part in the decision that day, so having a fully stocked bullpen is almost equally as important as who toes the rubber for the first pitch.</p>
<p id="P7GaT2">Yet I’ve always wondered whether the players put much stock into who is going to get the ball that first day. Is it spoken about openly about the desire to be the Opening Day starter, or do they really care if they go first, second, third, etc.? Likely, it’s something that is a badge of honor, a sign of a team’s belief in who they consider to be the top dog.</p>
<p id="nsZkUH">All that doesn’t really matter. It’ll be a pleasure to see Wheeler battle Spencer Strider in a few days time.</p>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/3/18/24104387/zack-wheeler-opening-day-starterEthan Witte2024-03-18T07:00:00-04:002024-03-18T07:00:00-04:00Rise and Phight: 3/18/2024
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0clUTZ5MTw067H3cw-mQDrME9IM=/1x0:3999x2665/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73214672/usa_today_22800405.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p><em>It’s been seven years since someone other than Aaron Nola started on Opening Day</em></p> <p id="bSDGqY"><a href="https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/phillies-zack-wheeler-confirmed-for-opening-day/">Zack Wheeler is getting the ball on Opening Day,</a> which ends the streak that Aaron Nola had going with the team. It’s something that will get sports radio all a’flutter, but this shouldn’t exactly be unexpected. Wheeler is the best pitcher on the team and deserves the honor of being the first starter the team sends to the hill.</p>
<p id="xvohpm">On to the links.</p>
<h3 id="FJoNP2"><em><strong>Phillies news:</strong></em></h3>
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<li id="4a6n7a">Two of MLB’s most notable mascots were sent to the United Kingdom....but not London. <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F5344049%2F2024%2F03%2F17%2Fwrexham-new-york-mets-philadelphia-phillies%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegoodphight.com%2F2024%2F3%2F18%2F24104297%2Frise-and-phight-3-18-2024" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">They went to Wrexham?</a>
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<li id="IqtXoP">
<a href="https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-bryce-harper-stiff-back-rob-thomson-unconcerned-20240317.html">Bryce Harper has a bit of a stiff back, but there shouldn’t be an issues for Opening Day</a>.</li>
<li id="Q0Yw3S">
<a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/phillies-2024-season-preview-projected-lineup-rotation-and-three-questions-about-world-series-hopefuls/">A pretty interesting read from an outside source about the Phillies.</a> The three questions they pose are pretty spot on.</li>
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<h3 id="xgyu3P"><em><strong>MLB news:</strong></em></h3>
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<li id="4oJfPj">
<a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F5345567%2F2024%2F03%2F15%2Fastros-blake-snell-pursuit%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegoodphight.com%2F2024%2F3%2F18%2F24104297%2Frise-and-phight-3-18-2024" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">It seems that Blake Snell and the Astros are having talks</a> that are getting heated now that Houston is missing some arms.</li>
<li id="WJhK3D">
<a href="https://x.com/JonHeyman/status/1769099682595144041?s=20">Eury Perez needs to see a doctor about his elbow</a>, which would be an issue if there is damage there.</li>
<li id="KmNgnv">Gerrit Cole does not need surgery right now and <a href="https://x.com/BryanHoch/status/1769030127206175228?s=20">will instead rehab the elbow for about a month</a>.</li>
<li id="bZ8soX">
<a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F5339521%2F2024%2F03%2F15%2Flife-as-mlb-rule-5-pick%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegoodphight.com%2F2024%2F3%2F18%2F24104297%2Frise-and-phight-3-18-2024" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">This was a good read about the spring training life of a Rule 5 draft pick</a> and the stress they are going through.</li>
</ul>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/3/18/24104297/rise-and-phight-3-18-2024Ethan Witte2024-03-17T07:00:00-04:002024-03-17T07:00:00-04:00Rise and Phight: 3/17/2024
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<img alt="MLB: MAR 17 Spring Training - Tigers at Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qB_FBP54fKtFwC-KhdLc3JBlyHM=/0x377:3200x2510/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73212867/1231775759.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Táimid chun gach rud a bhuachan </p> <p id="8A0pMX">Top o’ the mornin’ to ya and happy St. Patrick’s Day! </p>
<p id="vSD8kn">Fun fact: the first professional baseball league in the world was formed on St. Patrick’s Day in 1871. It took place, appropriately, in a bar called Collier’s Café. </p>
<p id="oquN6g">The influence of America’s Irish community on the development and history of baseball is significant and filled with colorful characters. Just look at Pud Galvin and Hugh Duffy. If you’re interested in learning more, check out this <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/irish-nationalist-links-to-the-rise-of-baseball-in-america-1.3946767">Irish Times piece on the rise of baseball in America</a>, or <a href="https://www.irishamerica.com/2009/08/the-irish-in-early-baseball/">this article on the Irish’s role in the early years of baseball</a>, or this other <a href="https://irishbaseball.org/irish-baseball-history/">thing about the Irish in baseball history</a>. </p>
<p id="SLr8F6">There was also some baseball played yesterday. In the Spring Breakout, Aiden Miller looked like he’s ready to ride that right-handed swing to a long career in the majors. Over in Jupiter, Johan Rojas had his own breakout. Not that anyone should put too much weight on Spring Training performances, but is he finding his groove and climbing out this slump? Or was yesterday an anomaly?</p>
<p id="mmy2CV">Read more about all of this and more in the links.</p>
<h3 id="Gn3LnX"><em>Phillies news:</em></h3>
<p id="lTpt1w">Alex Coffey recaps yesterday’s performances by <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-whit-merrifield-johan-rojas-miami-marlins-spring-training-20240316.html?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=ios&utm_campaign=app_ios_article_share&utm_content=VD5CQGKXOFHUFOEMOWVGZPWQIU">Max Castillo, Johan Rojas, and Whit Merrifield in the Phillies’ tie against the Marlins.</a></p>
<p id="toDhTY">Speaking of Spring Breakout, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/mick-abel-justin-crawford-aidan-miller-shine-at-spring-breakout">how about that Mick Abel?</a></p>
<p id="lm0bhF">Speaking of Mick Abel, Dave Dombrowski spoke with Todd Zolecki about his take on <a href="https://view.mail.mlblists.com/messages/17106025019351da64f3fde9e/raw">Phillies’ prospects and what the bench and bullpen might look like come Opening Day</a>. </p>
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<h3 id="9CQCQ0"><em>MLB news:</em></h3>
<p id="yhgFFC">It looks like a very relieved <a href="https://nypost.com/2024/03/16/sports/gerrit-cole-reveals-his-yankees-injury-confident-hell-pitch-this-season/">Gerrit Cole won’t need surgery</a> after all.</p>
<p id="n3ytfg">The Padres’ GM, <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/dylan-cease-trade-examining-a-j-pellers-penchant-for-trading-away-padres-top-prospects-over-past-decade/">A.J. Preller, has a thing for trading away prospects</a>, the most recent example being the three he shipped off to acquire Dylan Cease. </p>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/3/17/24102585/rise-and-phight-3-17-2024Brian_McQuilkin2024-03-16T09:30:00-04:002024-03-16T09:30:00-04:00The Phillies’ roster flexibility can help their depth
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<img alt="Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YZ_1ozcBhEE8-SYOKpwLTNDuqn8=/0x0:4500x3000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73211511/1572919151.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p><em>It’s not perfect, but it’s something</em></p> <p id="yQ4Dal">Publicly available research has been a boon for the baseball industry. Baseball sites such as Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs and the work they have accomplished has led to a greater understanding of how the game functions on the part of the readers. It has forever shifted the way we consume the game, how we compare players not just across the current group, but also across generations. If you’re anything like me, you’re checking those, and other, sites each and every day to get maybe just a little bit smarter about the game.</p>
<p id="Yah2h1">At Fangraphs, <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-new-way-of-looking-at-depth/">Ben Clemens wrote an interesting piece about depth</a>. The main purpose of the article was trying to see how each team’s player depth can be tested and how it will affect the playoff odds they produce. I’d encourage you to read it in its entirety, but the basic gist is easy: when teams lose their best players, their projected winning percentage drops as a result and affects their playoff odds. The Braves were the team that was used since they have the best player in the game right now in the form of a fully realized Ronald Acuna, Jr. Should something befall him, their winning percentage will be greatly affected, but the rest of their roster will help them into a playoff spot, or so the projections say. It’s when the teams start losing their fifth and sixth best players that they start to see issues. </p>
<p id="GDECEE">Except the Rays, but they’re a freaky deep roster.</p>
<p id="dQ3woy">It got me thinking about the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> and their depth. Are they that deep at all? Does their roster cover for that depth with positional flexibility?</p>
<p id="n4M0up">Using the team’s depth chart available on their website and Fangraphs’ list of projected fWAR, I put together a rough depth chart of what they’ll look like if everything went according to plan this year:</p>
<div id="WmZ3uu"><div data-anthem-component="table:12275492"></div></div>
<p id="O3Q6Q3">The first team offense looks like they’re going to be pretty good. Having two players in the everyday lineup that look to be, at least, four win players is a good starting for a team with <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> aspirations. There isn’t accounting here for breakouts or slumps, so having this as a midpoint for the team seems fair.</p>
<p id="W9hwNc">What isn’t taken into account is the potential for shifting around should injuries befall the team. Look at how the backups are put in. Should Trea Turner succumb to an injury and be required to miss time, the initial idea is to put Edmundo Sosa there. As anyone who follows the team knows, that would probably not be the case. In that scenario, Bryson Stott would likely move to shortstop for however long was needed while Whit Merrifield would climb to the keystone and form the other half of the double play combination. By WAR, this seems to be a push. Merrifield would be worth 0.4 WAR while Sosa accumulates the same. But as we’ve seen in the past, when Sosa has regular playing time for an extended period, he’s gets exposed offensively and becomes a liability. He’s not so bad as to be unplayable, but his current role of playing once or twice or a week with some defensive substitutions sprinkled in suits him just fine. Merrifield is more accustomed to being a starter in the league. He wasn’t great last year, but people across the board would probably rather him get the bulk of the playing time than Sosa.</p>
<p id="XQcHfk">The same goes for the outfield. We’re already seeing the gears shift in regards to center field playing time with Johan Rojas struggling mightily at the plate this spring, but the team has done a nice job of covering themselves in case there is an issue they feel they need to address. Brandon Marsh returned to the field this week and acquitted himself well, showing no ill effects from surgery. His ability to provide solid, if not plus, defense in center field covers the team there while opening a spot for someone like Merrifield or Jake Cave or Cristian Pache in left field. </p>
<p id="PS5055">This roster and positional flexibility can help mask some of the issues the team has with its depth. Take a look at any minor league depth chart and you will find nary an option that you’d feel confident in if that player needed to step in for a few weeks. There’s some help there now - Kody Clemens and Weston Wilson come to mind - that might provide a spark for a few days, maybe even weeks, but overexposure is the risk these players have. There hasn’t even been minor league contract backfill the team can get thanks to a rather difficult path to playing time in the major leagues these types of signings look for. So, the team has created its own depth by acquiring players that can play multiple positions at least a bit below average. Merrifield can play in left, handle second base and might be able to stand at first. Sosa can play basically the entire infield, save first base. Marsh can roam all over the grass while Pache and Cave can at least handle the corners. Alec Bohm would probably slide to first base if something were to happen there and on and on. </p>
<p id="DYkJfo">No one will claim the Phillies have the depth that a team like the Rays or the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> do. Those teams have that depth due to superior player development systems that are able to churn out prospects that can help in a pinch. The Phillies have something a bit different. It’s not the definition of depth in the way we usually think of it. Instead, it’s creating depth a more creative way to make up for the shortcomings of the farm system. It’s a risky way to do business. It’s reminds me of a Jenga tower. Sure, you can knock out one, maybe two blocks and still have a structure standing, however wobbly it may be. But too many blocks get pulled and suddenly that tower is brought down. The team has to hope that their building blocks are as sturdy as they have been in the past. </p>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/3/16/24093290/the-phillies-roster-flexibility-can-help-their-depthEthan Witte2024-03-16T07:00:00-04:002024-03-16T07:00:00-04:00Rise and Phight: 3/16/2024
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<img alt="MLB: All Star-Futures Game" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rIz-yly0BhRAR-Qbx7JX7LAG-0M=/0x0:4708x3139/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73211284/usa_today_21011626.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>National League Futures designated hitter Justin Crawford (13) of the Philadelphia Phillies hits an RBI-sacrifice fly against the American League Futures during the second inning of the All Star-Futures Game | Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Miller, Crawford, Abel highlight the first Spring Breakout </p> <p id="27SvWv">One of the most enjoyable aspects about following prospects is the unexpected. Do the players who seem destined for greatness burn out and fade away? Do the guys who seem unremarkable develop into the next Harper or Wheeler? Your guess is as good as the best scouts. </p>
<p id="6x66RN">Today at 1:00 we get to enjoy watching the top <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>’ prospects display what they got. You might need a MLB.TV or ESPN+ subscription to catch it, but it will be worth it if you have the opportunity. </p>
<p id="EUbcqE">And keep an eye on that Eduardo Tait kid. He’s one to watch.</p>
<p id="3LAE7f">On to the links.</p>
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<h3 id="weBRDc"><em>Phillies news:</em></h3>
<p id="Sf56dm">Need a primer the Spring Breakout game and who to watch? <a href="https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/phillies-tigers-spring-breakout-2024-faq">Check out MLB’s preview and FAQ of the Phillies v. Tigers matchup.</a></p>
<p id="iFGEty">Spring <em>must </em>be here because it’s fresh-faced prospects for as far as you can see. <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F5339511%2F2024%2F03%2F15%2Fsam-aldegheri-italian-pitcher-phillies-mlb%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegoodphight.com%2F2024%2F3%2F16%2F24102112%2Frise-and-phight-3-16-2024" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">If you can see all the way to Italy, that is</a>. (<em>Athletic</em> subscription required)</p>
<p id="nDf1of">The Phillies <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/phillies-jordan-luplow-signs-minors-deal-with-phi/">signed a minor league contract with 30 year old outfielder Jordan Luplow on Friday</a> after he was cut from the Braves. Through his career he’s batted well in the minors and struggled in the majors. Maybe we can fix him. </p>
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<h3 id="VTa2Hj"><em>MLB news:</em></h3>
<p id="p0rJqO">Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome say the Astros are hot for Snell, <a href="https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/blake-snell-simulated-game-astros-free-agent/1713645/">but could the Giants pull snag him at the last minute?</a> Probably not. </p>
<p id="cVrsaE">J.D. Davis, recently with the Giants until Matt Chapman took his job at third, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/athletics-j-d-davis-deal">signed a one year deal with the A’s.</a> Brad Pitt insists he’ll be in the lineup every day no matter what Kotsay says to the contrary. </p>
<p id="fmfPou">Everything must go! <a href="https://apnews.com/article/pittsburgh-pirates-mlb-ebeb82bd118fb86e269c6a538c285cbb">Bucs sign Michael A. Taylor to a one year deal</a>. Put your money on the Pirates and A’s facing off at the end of October. </p>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/3/16/24102112/rise-and-phight-3-16-2024Brian_McQuilkin2024-03-15T12:00:00-04:002024-03-15T12:00:00-04:002024 Season Preview: Starting Rotation Best Case Scenario
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<img alt="MLB: MAR 08 Spring Training - Astros at Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BfAPNvlOvJmhXHIgAC_LX3up0mE=/0x152:3200x2285/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73209680/2061706200.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Phillies rotation could be an absolute unit in 2024.</p> <p id="djjvNt">Even if the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> starting rotation doesn’t hit their absolute “best case scenario” in 2024, they should still be one of the best in Major League Baseball.</p>
<p id="9I1Z9y">That’s a really nice way to enter the season, knowing you have three starters you can count on — Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez — all of whom are battle tested and with playoff experience. They have a young, seemingly up-and-comer in Cristopher Sanchez, and a veteran right-hander who is dealing with velocity issues and a subpar 2023 season. </p>
<p id="hzlpft">The Phils added minor league depth this off-season with former Tiger Spencer Turnbull, former Braves top prospect Kolby Allard, and the veteran Nick Nelson providing some interesting arms, as well as a top-100 pitching prospect in Mick Abel looking to make some noise with a solid season in AAA Lehigh Valley.</p>
<p id="C5ahxY">But let’s dream on the big league rotation for just a second. What is the best case scenario?</p>
<p id="HqpaD2">First, Zack Wheeler could win the Cy Young Award, and this isn’t even a bold prediction. He’s already had a runner-up finish and, with his new contract extension in hand, should be primed for another big season. Especially since he’s going to be featuring a new pitch.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Zack Wheeler, Disgusting 86mph Splitter. <a href="https://t.co/qQapwxFXyO">pic.twitter.com/qQapwxFXyO</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1767246226406175164?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 11, 2024</a>
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<p id="9p44EW">Folks, this is a NEW pitch. He’s never thrown this in games before. It’s totally unfair.</p>
<p id="PeCOb6">For Nola, the best case scenario is a return to his 2018 form, when he almost won the Cy Young Award. For that to happen, he’ll need to continue looking at the correct pitch clock, continue to get more comfortable with runners on base and limited throws to first, and to stop giving up so many goshdarn home runs. His 32 homers allowed were 7th-most in baseball last season. </p>
<p id="vg9qWK">This spring, Ranger Suarez entered camp on time and in perfect health. The result has been a dominant spring in which he looks like he’s ready to truly being that left-handed No. 3 starter the team has needed for a full season. </p>
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<p lang="und" dir="ltr">Ranger Suárez's 2Ks in the 2nd. <a href="https://t.co/5pWO8E06Ir">pic.twitter.com/5pWO8E06Ir</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1768327278314828017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2024</a>
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<p id="i8jeJ1">He’s 2-0 with 12 innings pitched in his three spring starts thus far and has yet to give up a run, with 12 strikeouts and a WHIP of 0.80. Sure, it’s just spring, but just look at that filth! </p>
<p id="PPp3F1">Sanchez is expected to pitch against the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com">Astros</a> on Friday. He’s only appeared in one game due to an illness, but he was outstanding in that first game, with a velocity increase of about 2 mph on his fastball. The best case scenario for Sanchez is making sure he can maintain his newfound command last year with a mid-90s fastball that would generate more swing-and-miss. If he can find that, he can be every bit the No. 3 starter in this rotation.</p>
<p id="9i1Gd5">As for Taijuan Walker, expectations are low, as he’s likely the team’s No. 5 starter, at least in terms of talent. His velocity was down in his previous spring start, only hitting 89-90 mph. That is worrisome, given his inability to maintain a strong velocity from start to start last year. He got a late start in the spring with a bad knee and is only now ramping up. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start on the injured list, and I’m entirely sure what his best case scenario would be.</p>
<p id="XXmCWk">So, let’s turn to ZiPS projections, which forecasts a range of outcomes, and <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-philadelphia-phillies/">we’ll look at their 80 percentile numbers</a> for 2024. Here’s how they shake out:</p>
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<li id="J98yyr">Zack Wheeler: 3.02 ERA, 4.7 fWAR</li>
<li id="wxQUFd">Aaron Nola; 3.26 ERA, 4.5 fWAR</li>
<li id="M4uWG6">Ranger Suarez: 3.51 ERA, 3.2 fWAR</li>
<li id="LgJvf9">Cristopher Sanchez: 3.90 ERA, 2.7 fWAR</li>
<li id="6hzon6">Taijuan Walker: 4.23 ERA, 2.4 fWAR</li>
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<p id="2TKv5Q">Obviously the bestest best case scenario is for this group to stay healthy all season with very few missed starts, especially for Suarez, who generally misses a month of the season and often struggles to find his groove again when he does come back.</p>
<p id="wDZuAB">It would also be ideal for Abel to put up solid numbers in AAA and to be called upon in case something does happen to one of the top five. Turnbull could also be an interesting player to watch. His stuff was good enough to throw a no-hitter in 2021 and, had he not been beset by Tommy John surgery and other ailments the last two years, may have become an All Star for Detroit by now.</p>
<p id="QOestf">There’s a lot to like about the Phillies’ starting rotation and, if the best case scenario does occur, they’re going to challenge the Braves and <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> for the best record in the National League.</p>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/3/15/24101777/2024-season-preview-starting-rotation-best-case-scenarioJohn Stolnis2024-03-15T09:00:00-04:002024-03-15T09:00:00-04:002024 Season Preview: Starting Rotation Predictions
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cOXf2xLxOpZYU6HqYNXYCq0j-6w=/0x0:4841x3227/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73209130/usa_today_22760945.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>How will this go?</p> <p id="FnAzlF">The <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> starting pitching looks to be one of the strongest units in baseball. </p>
<p id="FBzXVG"><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP">Fangraphs has them ranked second</a>, only behind the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Los Angeles Dodgers</a> in projected WAR. They’ve spent north of $370 million to put this group together. </p>
<p id="wQTBQD">They’ll likely pitch plenty of innings given how the Phillies like to use their rotation. Rob Thomson has become known as someone with a quick hook but his starters pitched 899 innings last season, third most. </p>
<p id="EcEjlQ">How will they perform? Can we expect to see something similar? I’ll look through each of the five and offer some predictions. </p>
<p id="Kaa6OI"><em>Timmy Turner Voice: </em>What could possibly go wrong? </p>
<p id="U54c43"><strong>Zack Wheeler</strong></p>
<p id="mnDpMT"><a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/phillies-zack-wheeler-contract-extension.html">Wheeler inked a three-year extension about eleven days ago</a>, making him a Phillie for the next four seasons. </p>
<p id="oCn4QN">He casually put up a 5.9 fWAR season in 192 innings pitched. He casually showed up time and time again in the postseason. And now he’s casually working on a splitter. </p>
<p id="vgi5xO">It’s looked good in spring training with a few whiffs. He will need a little bit of time to fully get the command down but it will eventually become a true weapon. </p>
<p id="CbU7qv">It feels a lot like how he developed his sweeper last year. The pitch became one of his best weapons in October after some shakiness in the regular-season. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Zack Wheeler, Disgusting 86mph Splitter. <a href="https://t.co/qQapwxFXyO">pic.twitter.com/qQapwxFXyO</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1767246226406175164?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 11, 2024</a>
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<p id="kR9lXz">Wheeler isn’t deGrom-lite anymore. His fastball velocity has declined each of the last two seasons but he’s morphed into a different kind of pitcher. </p>
<p id="4shJrF">He can game-plan for anyone. Against righties, he can just pound a sinker-sweeper combination east and west. He demonstrates a perfect four-seam fastball-cutter-curveball combination to lefties. He even showcased a front-hip two-seam to lefties. </p>
<p id="itocSR">Instead of pitching like deGrom where he could spam two insanely annoying pitches, he’s now more like Max Scherzer. He has a full arsenal of weapons to attack hitters as he ages. </p>
<p id="RkSSH4"><em>Prediction: Top three in NL Cy Young voting</em></p>
<p id="daG3Lr"><strong>Aaron Nola</strong></p>
<p id="Bes5wk">In 2022, Nola put together the second-best season of his career and finished fourth in Cy Young voting. In 2023, he gave up a lot more home runs and needed the innings to keep up a good WAR. </p>
<p id="bCdw8N">The Phillies signed him to a seven-year $172 million contract in November, banking on that he’s probably somewhere in the middle. </p>
<p id="2h2JeQ">There should be fewer home runs allowed, maybe a home run to a fly-ball rate closer to 12% than over 15 like last season. He should be able to leave a few more men on base this year to help keep his ERA down. The outfield defense with Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas won’t hurt either. </p>
<p id="A7uAer">What’s been great to see is that Nola’s changeup has looked good in camp. He lacked a true third option in his arsenal last season. He’s been throwing it more off his running sinker, rather than closer to the right-handed batters box. It’s a good tweak for him. </p>
<p id="5cvyaJ">I’ll buy into something in the middle for Nola. I don’t think he’s going to be an ace but a very good number two who pitches about 200 innings. </p>
<p id="025wzQ"><em>Prediction: Nola finishes with at least 5.0 fWAR</em></p>
<p id="W7WuXd"><strong>Ranger Suárez</strong></p>
<p id="1Upsyf">Suárez has two different versions of himself. There’s the regular-season version and the post-season one. </p>
<p id="B7Lv0N">In the regular season, his fastball typically sits around 92-94, his command isn’t going to be as sharp, and he has to conserve weapons to go through the lineup three times. </p>
<p id="Z4VSsq">Then in the post-season, his fastball is a tick higher, he’s throwing perfect sinkers into righties, and he can get pulled after five innings. </p>
<p id="HBa1OK">Compare his playoff performances to someone like Jimmy Butler on the Heat. You know he’s going to turn it up a gear and bring a finals run out of nowhere. </p>
<p id="yrKLxB">Maybe this season changes some things. He’s finally in camp healthy and he’s right in the middle of his prime. It would also really benefit him financially because he’s a free agent after the 2025 season. </p>
<p id="FmNRgc">There is one trend that I think will improve for Suárez. His ground ball rate went from elite to just good in 2023. He sat in the mid to high 50s in 2021 and 22 before dropping down to 48.5% in 2023. Given that he’s good at keeping the ball down in the zone, I think this will come up. </p>
<p id="8RLv5l"><em>Prediction: Finishes with between a 3.80 and 4.30 ERA and pitches a career-high in innings</em></p>
<p id="maUvUL"><strong>Cristopher Sánchez</strong></p>
<p id="XOmKfh">Sánchez impressed in a short 2023 stint with a 3.44 ERA in 99.1 innings pitched. He thrived off having outlier movement in his sinker and changeup that overcame velocity concerns.</p>
<p id="4unsbA">He had a little bit of trouble with the long ball but compensated for that by throwing a ton of strikes and not walking anyone. Maybe he should throw fewer strikes to mitigate the homers better. He didn’t need major changes to repeat his success. </p>
<p id="EfeCdf">Sánchez made more that may or may not go well. He’s throwing more than a tick harder and he’s trying to figure out a cutter for right-handed hitters. The velocity has sacrificed movement on the rest of his arsenal. </p>
<p id="pYyZIV">What will win out? Velocity is generally a good thing to add but it doesn’t work for everyone. </p>
<p id="FABU2I">Framber Valdez threw nearly two miles per hour harder in 2023 but his ERA jumped from 2.82 to 3.45. His ground ball rate went down twelve percent because his sinker flattened out. </p>
<p id="dTrwPG">Sánchez may be a different case because he wasn’t even at average velocity last season. His changeup still has good separation (even if that isn’t a big deal anymore) and he is still throwing strikes. </p>
<p id="HOpD0X">It’s hard to know if these changes will make him better or worse. I do think they will make him different. </p>
<p id="DGDKdE"><em>Prediction: Less groundballs, more strikeouts, less home runs. </em></p>
<p id="4VkuBl"><strong>Taijuan Walker</strong></p>
<p id="Bp7Dhr">Walker’s first season in Philadelphia was eventful. He started the season off with an ERA over five and a half in the first two months. Next, he went on a run through June and July that made him look like a front-line starter. Then it went back up to over five down the stretch. </p>
<p id="oITwWj">After signing for 18 million dollars annually, he did not pitch a game in the postseason. Sánchez started game four of the NLCS because they could trust him. Michael Lorenzen got the mop-up duties because he could warm up quickly. </p>
<p id="gHR6Ts">It comes down to fastball velocity for Walker. It sets up his splitter much better because he can throw his four-seam fastball up in the zone with a little bit of bite. When he’s sitting 93-95, he can get good results. </p>
<p id="nnJrko">However, when he’s fatigued and the fastball is sitting around 90 mph, he doesn’t have the command to overcome it. His splitter doesn’t get the same swings and misses as before. His stuff is too prone to getting hit around. It’s sort of like watching Kyle Kendrick pitch. </p>
<p id="OHsg8p"><a href="https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-starting-rotation-taijuan-walker-injury-news-20240309.html">Walker added weight this off-season </a>to hopefully address these concerns. His first spring start didn’t look great stuff-wise but he was sidelined with a knee injury before that. </p>
<p id="Ru15u5">It’s hard to feel hopeful he can sustain velocity throughout a full season. It’s declined each of the last two seasons and he’s 31 now. He was never the healthiest pitcher in the world before that. </p>
<p id="evtSws"><em>Prediction: ERA closer to 4.80 and about 150-160 innings</em></p>
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https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/3/15/24101135/2024-season-preview-starting-rotation-predictionsanthonyesbensen