The Good Phight: FanPosts

Predictions of minors call ups' for next year

2009-11-06T21:28:05Z

whats going on guys? my first post here (obviously im on bleeding green), but i wanted to bring up some of the phillies minor league tallent. Who do you think will come up? and what predictions of them do you have?... this is also baring any trade speculation.

-honestly i am starting to think that Drabek is ready to be a fifth starter. it pains me to think Moyer will be starting again next year (although i have the utmost respect for him). I believe the rotation of Lee, Hammels, Blanton, Happ, Drabek has the "potential" to be a great one. i put that in " " because it depends on how Drabek can pitch in the majors and if Happy can not have a sophomore year slump.

-between brown and taylor i feel that one of them is ready to make an impact on our roster. I was also hoping they would do a platoon between Ibanez and one of the two during the season like they did with Werth/Jenk.

beside that i thought the season was great guys. while i am disheartened that they lost the world series it puts a chip on our shoulder next year. GO PHILLS!!

Not Philly Enough

2009-11-04T21:42:39Z

Promoted from FanPosts, some laughs on an otherwise gloomy day... WC

This week, the Inqy's Frank Fitzpatrick wrote an article claiming that there was simply "not enough Philly" in Cole Hamels, and that this would eventually get to him. I realized that this impenetrable logic also spells doom for many other Phillies, who just may not be Philly enough to make it in this town.

1. Jimmy Rollins
He's too busy doing Red Bull endorsements and bowling for charity to really get his head in the game. And he loves Jay-Z, who's from NY. What kind of Philadelphian listens to Jay-Z?? Or hip-hop, for that matter-- god knows it's not blue-collar enough, always talking about champagne, bling, and whips that couldn't even haul a half-ton of gravel.

2. Shane Victorino
He's from Hawaii (if that IS his real birth certificate). Plus, he replaced Aaron Rowand: the greatest Philadelphia athlete of all time. Shane runs too fast and plays too well to ever have to run into a wall to make a catch, and that's not how we get it done in Philly.

3. Chase Utley
Much like his Hollywood pal, Cole Hamels, Chase Utley is just another slicked-back Cali pretty boy. And he never smiles during games, which just shows that he doesn't have the heart or love of the game that great players need to succeed.

4. Ryan Howard
The man does ads for Subway cheesesteaks. Nothing he could do on the field can make up for that.

5. Jayson Werth
Ok, I want to give it to him because he really does have the facial hair to be Philly enough. But who the hell spells a nice normal name like Jason with a Y? Way too fancy, if you ask me. And he almost looks like he's having TOO much fun. He should take a page from Chase Utley's handbook, and get more serious about the game.

6. Raúl Ibáñez
Seriously, what Philly fan wants a jersey with that many accents on it?

7. Pedro Feliz
No one likes him anyway. Also, Geno's wouldn't even serve him a steak.

8. Carlos Ruiz
He's from Panama. Isn't that where Abreu was from? And we all know how THAT worked out.

9. Cliff Lee
Did you hear him the other day when he said he wasn't nervous before the WS? That just shows he doesn't take the game seriously enough. Everyone knows Happ should've started Game 1 instead.

10. Brad Lidge
He's not performing as well as he used to, but gosh darn it does he try hard! He's got a great face of hair. Despite us being the defending champions, he makes us look and feel like underdogs. And if there's one thing Philly loves, it's an underdog. There you have it-- Brad Lidge is the Philliest Phillie we've got.

Phillies Breakfast Links, November 5, 2009: Too Depressed to Eat Breakfast, Ma Edition

2009-11-05T13:04:16Z

My last few playoff fill-ins on Breakfast Links were wonderful opportunities, for which I remain grateful. This morning, however, I have been passed a bitter cup: Skipper has tapped me to take one for the team on the morning after losing the World Series. Per Skip: Post some links and get out of there. Get on with the offseason while the Blog Lords get a head start cleaning out their lockers. But it breaks my heart. Just hard to watch. Just, just...Hurt.

So I tried to give the Yankees props. I'll even cop to the notion that they were the better team, and think that Matsui being the first Japanese player to win Series MVP is a great story, way better than this one, even though it came at the expense of Chase Utley. And if you thought last night sucked for you, imagine if you were this guy. Even, to a lesser degree, this guy.

But then I took a look at this:

Ghosts of '57 Game 7 remain just that

I swear this was one of the first postgame links out there last night. But for crissakes, the lede that you take is that it's a damn shame there's no game 7 in Yankees Stadium, and this continues a 52-year drought of game 7s? Right there-RIGHT THERE-I tapped into the vein of deep Yankee Loathing from which I will never return. It just seems like this is what America would be like if the Nazis had won. Don't believe me? Then try this.

So even though I feel like one of those guys in the late afternoon at the Aqueduct, stooped over below the day's post-racing cigarette haze picking through discarded betting slips looking for a winner, there really is reason for optimism as a Phillies fan, say, compared to the last team that managed to beat the Yankees in the World Series. Still hurts though, even though this '09 team didn't quit. Even though Manuel has plenty of room to be second-guessed.

Transit union chief says he's "most hated" man in Philadelphia. Joe Buck and Tim McCarver breathe easier. Everyone else has to walk or ride their bike to work. Meanwhile, in New York, well, you know.

Ogasawara busts out but keeps poker face.Game 3 of the Japan Series. Maybe somewhere over in Japan there's a slugging third baseman. And now it's official: the Japan Series is the baseball equivalent of Branson, MO. Go Ham Fighters!

That's all I have stomach and time for this morning. Feel free to add your links in the comments. Thanks again to all for a fun season. Until right now. Wait 'til next year.

Next Year!

2009-11-05T04:59:21Z

Who's excited for next year?

Full year of Cliff Lee?

Hamels will return to form.

Chooch turning into a stud.

More Werth antics.

Beating the Mets!

How long til pitchers and catchers report?

Crazy Phillies Fan Who Offered Sex for World Series Tickets Tells All!

2009-11-03T23:30:46Z

boxofmess.com/?p=4118

Check out this article on Susan Finkelstein. Who is this? She is the woman who was arrested for offering sex for Phillies World Series Tickets on Craigslist. In this interview she tells all about what happened and how she was arrested by the police in a degrading way. This is a great read for anyone!!!

Make sure you spread this link as this site is the only one to interview her along with CBS. I personally like the interview a lot myself and so will you.

Larry Bowa comes close to call the Phillies cheaters

2009-11-03T18:18:40Z

http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2009/11/dodgers_third-base_coach_larry.html

I'm sure you have heard that Larry Bowa said he has heard other teams calling the Phillies cheaters, that they steal signs. I have not seen evidence of this (pictorially), so the glove doesn't fit yet (yes I made a bad OJ pun there). However this is a concern, and I might question my fanhood to the Phillies if this turns out to be true. It is against the spirit of the game (even if it is there historically, even if it was in The Shot Heard 'Round the World). This to me would equate what the Yankees have been doing for years, trying to buy a championship. Not the hard way, like last year for the Phils.

However, it has not been mentioned that the Yankees were constantly going to the mound in the ALCS. I remember that they pulled a 5 minute stall tactic by having the catcher go to the mound, coach, throwing to first, catcher going to mound numerous times to get to Mariano Rivera - before a pitch was thrown. Plus other times trying going to the mound in the same at bat. In Anaheim, there is no center field seats, there is the rock pile, where some media sit. Only seats to left and right of center. Honestly, it was sick, I really hope MLB makes a rule for number of times a catcher or fielder can visit the mound, much like coaches and managers.

Poll

If the Phillies are proven to steal signs, would you care?

STFU You

2009-11-03T14:06:12Z

Look, some person who is not smart, most people around here probably hate you. You may have hit your wife in public, or maybe you have complained about your role 100s of times, and there might be a reason why people call you a 10 cent head. Maybe I have always backed you, just because I thought you could pitch well or do something else worthwhile.

Since someone like you hasn't done crap for us this year, get the hell out. That bling on your finger, if you were here last year? That is due to Cole Hamels. I know you can't read this you probable illiterate douche, but maybe you can have a team official or somebody else act it out for you.

TALKING SHIT RIGHT AFTER THE PHILLIES WON A GAME TO KEEP FROM BEING ELIMINATED IS RETARDED.

What the hell could possibly go through that air-tunnel in your head where in such euphoria after a big win, the first thought that you maybe had is to deride your teammate or someone you know, regardless of the stupid things he said. I am glad you won't be back next year or sometime in the undetermined future.

[Edit: Sotry made more ambiguous to not to refer to anyone in particular.]

World Series Simulation, Game #6

2009-11-03T05:53:38Z

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability. Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible. Not an easy thing to do.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

Jeff Passan Rips Phillies Decision to Not Pitch Lee in Game 4

2009-11-02T21:48:42Z

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-leegamefour110209&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

In my opinion, this is one of the dumbest things I have ever read. Joe Blanton one up'd CC Sabathia in every category except runs and innings pitched last night. Cupcakes gave up less hits, struck out more, and walked less than Sabathia (his WHIP was lower, too). The poor offense (and He-who-shall-not-be-named) is what cost the Phillies game 4, not the lack of Lee. Passan has now lost all credability with me. Thoughts anyone?

Fun with statistics

2009-11-02T19:29:45Z

Collective World Series Batting Line

Yankees: .235/.311/.394 -- .705 OPS -- 5 HR -- 6 2B
Phillies: .220/.297/.447 -- .744 OPS -- 7 HR -- 9 2B

Collective World Series Pitching Line

Yankees: 36.0 IP -- 29 H -- 15 BB -- 36 K -- 1.22 WHIP -- 4.98 FIP
Phillies: 35.0 IP -- 31 H -- 10 BB -- 41 K -- 1.17 WHIP -- 3.57 FIP

Pythagorean Expected Record

Yankees: 2.3 - 1.7 (19 RS, 16 RA)
Phillies: 1.7 - 2.3 (16 RS, 19 RA)

Granted, the pythag is based on a 4-game sample size, but I think that on the whole, everything above is instructive on one key point: the Yankees aren't really dominating this Series on any level. The overall statistics paint a picture of a pretty close Series, but of course, the 3-1 deficit tells us differently.

Now, there are two statistical categories that can show why such a discrepancy in overall results can come from such similar statistical profiles: performance with runners in scoring position, and batting average on balls in play. I don't have the former data for this Series, but I went back through the play by play to figure out the latter, and I don't think anyone who's watched the Series will be surprised at the result...

World Series BABIP

Yankees: .302
Phillies: .253

Oh well, what can you do? As noted philosopher Forrest Gump once said, "Shit happens." It's scant consolation for Phillies fans as we sit here in a 3-1 hole in the World Series, but perhaps it can dispel the myth that the Phillies just haven't showed up to play this Series.

Yankees fan going to game 5

2009-11-02T15:39:23Z

Just want to see the game.

I am a die-hard Yankees fan that dosent shit on other teams except Boston, but going to the game tonight with my daughter and I have never been to Philly. Will I be treated fairly or should I not go becuase how rabid Philly fans are, from what i have heard. Just hope for a great game, cant wait to see this pitching duel between Lee and Burnett.

World Series Simulation, Game #5

2009-11-02T06:34:11Z

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Sunday at 10:00PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Burnett vs C.Lee	PHI	57.45%	63.03%	60%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator says the Phillies will most likely live to play another day, mostly due to the deft pitching of Cliff Lee. There is around 5-1/2 percentage points of difference between the Simulator and Vegas on Game #5. AccuScore's numbers are out and they are taking the middle ground.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 3-2
2	PHI 4-3
3	PHI 2-1
4	PHI 5-4
5	NYA 3-2
6	PHI 3-1
7	PHI 4-2
8	PHI 4-1
9	NYA 4-3
10	PHI 5-2
11	NYA 2-1
12	PHI 5-3
13	PHI 5-1
14	NYA 5-4
15	NYA 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 3-1
18	PHI 3-0
19	PHI 6-2
20	PHI 4-0
21	PHI 1-0
22	PHI 2-0
23	NYA 5-3
24	PHI 6-3
25	PHI 5-0
26	PHI 6-4
27	PHI 6-1
28	NYA 5-2
29	PHI 7-2
30	NYA 6-5
31	NYA 4-1
32	PHI 6-0
33	NYA 1-0
34	NYA 6-4
35	PHI 7-3
36	PHI 7-6
37	NYA 2-0
38	PHI 7-1
39	NYA 6-3
40	NYA 6-2
41	PHI 7-4
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 8-2
44	NYA 5-1
45	PHI 8-1
46	PHI 8-3
47	NYA 7-4
48	PHI 7-0
49	NYA 3-0
50	NYA 7-6

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Burnett	6.4	6.233	2.847	0.948	1.381	4.522
C.Lee	7.4	5.892	1.241	0.596	1.089	3.157

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3159	J.Rollins	.3413
2	J.Damon	.2896	S.Victorino	.3456
3	M.Teixeira	.3479	C.Utley	.3818
4	A.Rodriguez	.3287	R.Howard	.3886
5	R.Cano	.2995	J.Werth	.3504
6	N.Swisher	.2954	R.Ibanez	.3609
7	M.Cabrera	.2704	P.Feliz	.2965
8	J.Molina	.2449	C.Ruiz	.3091
9	A.Burnett	.1366	C.Lee	.1341

Hamels, Neyer, Martino

2009-11-01T22:06:21Z

Since Cole Hamels' 2009 season has been covered in some depth on TGP, I thought people might find this Andy Martino blog post to be of interest.

A few thoughts:

First, Martino's criticism of Neyer is entirely fair here. I'm a longtime fan of Neyer's work and I actually agree with his ultimate conclusion about Hamels, but it can't be denied that he always has been and continues to be one of the most egregious straw-manners in the business, and that's exactly what he does to Salisbury in the linked post. Neyer could have just made his point instead of feeling like he needed to first find some sportswriter to cast as his foil. This is a piss-fight that could have been avoided.

Second, I wonder if Martino's belief that certain things have gone "wrong" with Hamels' season is necessarily at odds with the view that most of us share here - that Hamels' peripherals in 2009 are similar to his peripherals in 2008. Maybe there's a way to synthesize both viewpoints. For example, I wonder if Hamels' peripherals have changed at all as the season has gone along. If they have, that could support the "Verducci" hypothesis - that he's been wearing out as his innings have accumulated. Just from eyeballing the game log, his home run rate sure seems to have skyrocketed in the postseason, at least. His pitch counts have also definitely increased lately - are pitch counts necessarily a function of luck?

Third, on more of a big-picture note: while I understand that throughout the history of baseball, pitchers have never shown an ability to sustain high BABIPs and low BABIPs for very long periods of time, it begs the question: is that necessarily because outlying BABIPs are purely a matter of random chance, or could it be because outlying BABIPs are affectable by player adjustments? I don't know if there's any way to conclusively answer this question, but my initial reaction is that both possibilities are equally plausible.

World Series Simulation, Game #4

2009-11-01T16:35:09Z

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 9:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton	NYA	62.26%	62.51%	65%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator thinks that Joe Blanton is mismatched against CC Sabathia. And now that the Vegas lines are up, so does Vegas and AccuScore for that matter. Vegas and the Simulator are in almost perfect agreement as to the likelihood of a Yankees victory. 38% win probability is not a huge underdog, so a Phillie victory is quite possible, but either Joe Blanton is going to have to be on top of his game, and or CC Sabathia is going to have to be hittable like he was to Chase Utley in Game #1. Most likely scores 7 thru 14 are the blackhole that the Phillies need to avoid. :)

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 4-3
2	PHI 3-2
3	NYA 3-2
4	NYA 4-3
5	PHI 2-1
6	PHI 5-4
7	NYA 4-2
8	NYA 3-1
9	NYA 2-1
10	NYA 5-4
11	NYA 5-3
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 5-1
15	PHI 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 6-2
18	NYA 6-4
19	NYA 6-3
20	PHI 5-3
21	NYA 4-0
22	NYA 6-5
23	PHI 3-1
24	NYA 3-0
25	NYA 6-1
26	NYA 7-2
27	NYA 5-0
28	PHI 5-2
29	NYA 2-0
30	NYA 7-4
31	NYA 7-3
32	NYA 7-1
33	PHI 6-4
34	PHI 1-0
35	NYA 6-0
36	NYA 1-0
37	PHI 7-6
38	NYA 7-5
39	PHI 4-1
40	NYA 8-1
41	NYA 8-2
42	NYA 8-3
43	PHI 6-3
44	NYA 7-0
45	NYA 8-4
46	NYA 7-6
47	PHI 2-0
48	PHI 6-2
49	NYA 9-2
50	PHI 7-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
C.Sabathia	7.1	6.845	2.008	0.694	1.132	3.390
J.Blanton	6.6	5.589	2.117	1.236	1.332	4.915

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3298	J.Rollins	.3115
2	J.Damon	.3429	S.Victorino	.3057
3	M.Teixeira	.3952	C.Utley	.3207
4	A.Rodriguez	.3840	R.Howard	.3057
5	J.Posada	.3655	J.Werth	.3307
6	R.Cano	.3247	R.Ibanez	.3045
7	N.Swisher	.3545	P.Feliz	.2884
8	M.Cabrera	.3051	C.Ruiz	.2863
9	C.Sabathia	.1340	J.Blanton	.1352

Yahooooooooo!

2009-10-31T18:58:09Z

No Surprise... Blanton Game 4

2009-10-30T19:22:21Z

Charlie just announced in his press conference earlier that "Bazooka Joe" Blanton will be starting game 4 of the WS in CBP. Regardless of your aces and the lefty/righty talk, its kind of disappointing to see the probable NL Rookie of the Year, J.A. Happ not getting a start at all during the postseason.

Thoughts of this decision, more or less if C.C. ends up going on Game 4? (Very possible if Phils take Game 3 tomorrow)

Pinstripe Alley Extends an Olive Branch

2009-10-30T12:17:25Z

Dear Good Phighters,

I'm one of the writers for Pinstripe Alley. In honor of the off day, I want to extend an olive branch in honor of our two mutual loves: great baseball (which we've had plenty of so far, if only the umpires had been watching the same games we've seen) and making fun of the Mets (which, frankly, it's hard to get enough of).

Go here, and create a poster related to the Mets. Come over to the matching post on PA and share your creation. Maybe we'll even talk some baseball.

Enjoy the off day and have some fun.

World Series Simulation, Game #3

2009-10-30T04:30:25Z

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 9:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Pettitte vs C.Hamels	NYA	52.83%	46.70%	52.40%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... It looks like according to Vegas, the Yankees are going to be favored in every game of this series. Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites to win Game #3, while my simulator has the Phillies as slight favorites. The spread between Vegas and my simulator is around 6%. AccuScore has come in with numbers similar to Vegas in terms of win probability, but is predicting an over/under of 10.6 runs, while both Vegas and my simulator see the over/under in the low 9s.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 4-3
2	PHI 3-2
3	PHI 5-4
4	NYA 4-3
5	PHI 2-1
6	NYA 3-2
7	PHI 6-5
8	PHI 4-2
9	NYA 5-4
10	PHI 5-3
11	NYA 4-2
12	PHI 3-1
13	NYA 5-3
14	PHI 5-2
15	NYA 2-1
16	NYA 5-2
17	PHI 4-1
18	NYA 6-4
19	NYA 3-1
20	NYA 6-5
21	PHI 6-4
22	NYA 4-1
23	PHI 7-6
24	PHI 5-1
25	PHI 6-2
26	NYA 6-3
27	PHI 6-3
28	NYA 6-2
29	NYA 5-1
30	NYA 7-5
31	NYA 7-4
32	PHI 7-4
33	PHI 6-1
34	NYA 7-6
35	PHI 3-0
36	PHI 7-2
37	NYA 7-3
38	PHI 8-7
39	PHI 7-3
40	PHI 1-0
41	NYA 7-2
42	PHI 7-1
43	NYA 6-1
44	PHI 2-0
45	PHI 7-5
46	PHI 4-0
47	NYA 2-0
48	NYA 8-5
49	NYA 1-0
50	PHI 8-2

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Pettitte	6.5	5.384	2.508	0.839	1.406	4.375
C.Hamels	6.9	6.031	1.555	0.928	1.262	3.877

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3412	J.Rollins	.3478
2	J.Damon	.3173	S.Victorino	.3453
3	M.Teixeira	.3906	C.Utley	.3656
4	A.Rodriguez	.3735	R.Howard	.3583
5	J.Posada	.3563	J.Werth	.3790
6	R.Cano	.3223	R.Ibanez	.3489
7	J.Hairston	.3036	P.Feliz	.3292
8	M.Cabrera	.2971	C.Ruiz	.3167
9	A.Pettitte	.1435	C.Hamels	.1656

The Phils vs. A.J. Burnett

2009-10-29T20:43:16Z

Interesting numbers from our lineup regulars against the Yankees' Game Two starter. A trend emerges: again and again, the Phillies haven't hit Burnett often, but they've hit him hard. Six of the nine likely starters have homered off A. J. Burnett.

Jimmy Rollins: 50 plate appearances, .256/.340/.396, HR

Shane Victorino: 6 PA, .167/.167/.500, 3B

Chase Utley: 23 PA, .286/.348/.524, 3B, HR

Ryan Howard: 12 PA, .167/.167/.667, 2 HR

Jayson Werth: 7 PA, .143/.333/.571, HR

Raul Ibanez: 17 PA, .267/.294/.333, 2B

Pedro Feliz: 15 PA, .133/.133/.200, 2B

Carlos Ruiz: 3 PA, 1.000/1.000/2.000, HR

Matt Stairs: 12 PA, .273/.333/.818, 2 HR

With the forecast calling for a drier evening than last night's opener, the ball should carry a bit better. If the Phils maintain the great approach at the plate they've had for most of the postseason, they could light up the scoreboard once again.

All quiet on the Yankee front

2009-10-29T14:23:03Z

Im not a troll. I just like to read the opponents blogs now and then just to see what they're saying. I never will comment. Anyway i went to the Yankees blog today and i swear i could hear crickets churping from my speakers. Not one of those smug yankee fans has anything to say. There were a couple that think they are going to win just because Pedro is pitching tonight. They think because he is old that they are going to hit the daylights out of him. I have a huge feeling that Pedro will shut them up just like Cliff did last night. If we can win tonight, im predicting a sweep. Hamels will pitch game 3 and i have a hunch that Charley will play Lee in game 4 just to put them out of their misery. Im making some bold predictions here but after seeing the faces on the fans and yankees players last night, i noticed the ego got knocked right out of them. You could tell that they knew they have no chance. 2-0 tonight! GO PHILLIES!!!