The Good Phight

Should Kendrick have bunted?

The Navigator — Wed, 14 May 2008 15:13:21 -0000

Tues. night, bottom of the sixth, Phils up 4-3 at the time. Kendrick has made it out of the top of the sixth with the lead and he's due up second. Carlos Ruiz manages to reach base. Now what do you do? Kendrick's probably done no matter what happens, because it's after an off day and the bullpen is all set to go JC, Flash, Lidge.

We could save a bench player for later, in what looks to stay a close game, and have Kendrick bunt Ruiz over. But here's the thing: Kendrick is, like all Phillies pitchers younger than 45, a terrible bunter. And it's only a one-run lead and we need to increase it, with nine outs to go and the bullpen not likely to be perfect forever. And a pinch hitter is more likely to be able to swing away if that becomes necessary.

But here's another thing: we're confident we don't need to change up plans and have the hitter swing away. Even if Ruiz moves up to second on a PB or something, there's still none out and the best move with the nine hole is to bunt him to third. With a strong bullpen due up, stretching a one-run lead to two by playing for one run is a pretty good move with your nine-hole hitter, and as long as you're going to bunt for sure, why not use the pitcher?

Because he's a terrible bunter. We can't be taking gambles with the thinnest possible lead and a long way to go in the game - we need someone we're confident can get the bunt down.

But here's one other thing: Kendrick's not going to get better at bunting unless he practices bunting. He's got to get up there in game situations and work at it, so that maybe when it really, really counts in late September he'll be competent at it. And no, this isn't a safe time like a ten-run lead, but bunting with a ten-run lead is bad baseball manners anyway. Saving the pinch hitter for later, letting Kendrick give it a try when there's none out and you're leading with your bullpen set up might be the right move.

Is it? I can't quite decide. I think the answer is, no, you can't gamble with a one-run lead; if Kendrick's not pitching the seventh, you need a sure bunter up there. You don't save bench players - at least, not when you've still got a full bench - for later when you'e got a clear use for them now. But I'm not sure about this. Because the Phils pitchers have to, have to, have to get better at bunting somehow, just like Utley had to hit lefties poorly for a while to figure them out.

As it happens, we sent up Taguchi and he laid down an acceptable, albeit not great, bunt. But I have a thought: maybe we don't burn Taguchi there. Maybe we send up someone else to bunt, someone who's shown he's good at it. Someone who's old enough to be Kendrick's daddy. Yeah, that's right: pinch hitter Jamie Moyer.

JRoll

jonk — Wed, 14 May 2008 10:52:09 -0000

It is a little tough to get on him since he was on the DL for a month, but here is his current line:

.276 BA .300 OBP .500 SLG .800 OPS

Hidden in that line is that he has 1 walk in 58 ABs. Yeah, just 1 walk. (He also has a HBP)

Call me crazy, but 1 walk in 17 games just doesn't cut it for me. Maybe he feels like he has to swing the bat to get back into rythym or maybe the MVP should be hitting and not walking. I am not sure, but we will be hurting if he doesn't show more patience at the plate.

Brandon Watson

columbusOHcubsfan — Sun, 11 May 2008 17:03:38 -0000

I have always wondered why Brandon Watson hasn't gotten a good shot at playing at the major league level. Over the last 3+ years he has put up great minor league stats. In 2005 he was voted a PCL all-star and last year he had a 43-game hit streak and was one of the strongest outfielders in the IL. HIs average during that hit streak was an outstanding .350. He looked like a major league quality player.

Despite his great play he only has played in a total of 40 major league games in a span of 3 seasons. Even though he didn't hit well, he didn't recieve a chance to play enough. In 2008, Watson is hitting .288, a team high for average. I think Watson should get a chance to play somewhere. Would you guys have any spot for this guy on your team?

Dave Zirin on Sports Blogging...

FuquaManuel — Fri, 09 May 2008 00:26:35 -0000

Apparently sportswriter Buzz Bissinger said some pretty nasty stuff to blogger Will Leitch from www.deadspin.com on Bob Costas' show on HBO.

Well, political sportswriter Dave Zirin has chimed in on the Sportswriters vs. Bloggers debate...and he is on our side.

Some of you may remember Bill Conlin's little tirade back in November that really underscored the worries of Sportswriters in a world where information is flowing more democratically than it ever has before.

Pitching

foos05 — Thu, 08 May 2008 12:52:53 -0000

Well heading into last offseason, our major focus was pitching... So how'd we do overall? Closer - Lidge... hasn't blown a save or given up a earned run yet... sounds good to me. Bullpen in general - we're actually getting really good production out of our bullpen this year. Romero has performed well, Gordon continues to look sharp. Seanez is actually turning out to be a good pick up... Madson - ehhhh and Condrey not so much either... Hopefully along the lines we'll pull up another lefty and move Clay back down. Now, the starters... ugh... well let's just say it's not the best sign when Gordon and Romero have more wins than four of our starters. It's actually getting to the point where I'm comfortable in the 9th inning with a one run lead seeing Lidge come out, rather than, "Oh god please, let them hold on..." Also, my view used to be, "Well, if [insert starters' name] can go 6 or 7, hopefully we build up a decent lead and the bullpen only gives up a run or two and we hang on..." It's really getting to the point where my thinking is now, "Jesus, [starter], make it through 6, keep it close and give it to the pen. Let them actually stop the bleeding and let's get the bats going..."

I know this would look alot different if we were scoring earlier in the game, but we're not. I think overall, our starters need to shape up a little here... Any recent news on Benson?

35 game checkup on the Lidge trade

char6587 — Thu, 08 May 2008 05:39:58 -0000

was it worth it? I feel like there are five ways to look at this:

1) Lidge's worth as a closer

2) Myers' worth as a starter

3) Worth of Bruntlett

4) The cost of not having Bourn

5) Cost of not having Geary

So.

Is 1+2+3 > 4+5?

I know its only 35 games in. I know lidge has not had any opportunities to prove his worth in "clutch" situations. I know that bourn is 25 and brad is 31. I know that lidge is getting 6.4 mil and bourn is getting .4 mil. Still though, it's hard not to love how this is turning out.

bonus question!

who has more hits, Ryan Howard or Micah Owings?

(okay, fine... but did you hesitate?)

What's Moyer worth?

The Navigator — Tue, 06 May 2008 17:53:27 -0000

If you were Ruben Amaro Jr., would (that is, should) you sign a league-average pitcher to a multi-year deal for 2009+? And would it make a difference if that pitcher was currently 45 years old?

Moyer is, so far this year, almost the definition of a league-average pitcher. His ERA is 4.15 in a league with a 4.34 average; his WHIP is 1.59. He's throw at least 199 innings in each of the last seven seasons. Watching him last night, I found myself appreciating how slender and flexible he is - I hope to match that when I'm 45 - and admiring his approach at the plate. Set aside his two hits, although they were pretty tasty; focus on that bunt. How rare is it to see a Phillies pitcher who regularly lays down good bunts?

Anyway, the point is, he looks like he could keep this up for another three or four years. Throwing that 76-MPH slop up there can't be taxing his arm too much. The guy I saw last night looked like a good candidate to be throwing 175+ innings of league-average ball in 2010.

So, how crazy would it be to offer a multi-year deal to a guy who'd be 46 in the first year? That's insane, right - baseball malpractice? I'm just posting this here because I caught myself thinking that it might not be insane, and that we could actually regret <i>not</i> resigning Moyer next year, a la Lohse.

19-14

jonk — Tue, 06 May 2008 07:14:41 -0000

Is a .575 winning percentage. Looking back and ignoring the first week of each season, this is the best winning percentage the Phillies have had since May 14, 2006 when they were flying high with a 22-15 record for a .594 winning percentage.

The Phils had just finished off a sweep of the Reds to put an exclamation mark on a nice 2 weeks where they went 13-1. At the end of the streak, the middle of the lineup consisted of 5 hitters with an OPS of .900 above (Utley, Abreu, Howard, Burrell and Victorino).

Of course, the Phils then went 2-9 over the next 11, and 16-32 over the next 48. Yeah, let's hope that doesn't happen again.

Breaking Down Chase Utley

phatj — Sun, 04 May 2008 20:12:24 -0000

No, I don't want to physically injure the NL MVP frontrunner. Let's take a closer look at what he's doing this season.

Utley is currently sporting a ridiculous 1.227 OPS, by far the best of his career (he hit .976 last year) The home runs are the most obvious improvement: he's already hit more than half as many as he did in the five months he played last season. He's on pace to hit 68 for the year, which would be 3rd best of all time.

Not only is he hitting more home runs, he's hitting more extra-base hits overall. It's not just doubles turning into homers. He's on pace for 52 doubles, which is behind the crazy pace he hit them at last year, but still would have been enough to lead the league.

But what's behind the power surge? His other stats don't look exceptional. His batting average is significantly up, but it has steadily improved every season. His strikeut rate is slightly down and walk rate is a bit up (the latter largely owing to being IBBed a few times due to Howard's struggles), but both are also in line with career trends.

What is unexpected is that his groundball rate is sharply down while his line drive and flyball rates are both up:

via www.fangraphs.com

Also, per the Hardball Times, his HR/FB rate is by far the best of his career, at 23.4% (vs. a career rate of ~13%). This isn't an unusual HR/FB rate compared to other sluggers, however -- Barry Bonds bettered Chase's ratio in 3 of his last 4 seasons, and Ryan Howard has hit more home runs per fly ball in every year but this one.

What isn't off the charts, surprisingly enough, is Chase's average on balls in play. It's at .348, which is well above average, but not remarkable nor unsustainable. It's actually down from last season, when his BABIP was .362.

What does all this mean? I don't know, except that it seems extremely unlikely that he'll be able to keep up this pace. Utley doesn't have the physique usually associated with this kind of slugging, although the fact that his HR/FB rate isn't extraordinary is a good sign. The single biggest key to his success thus far would seem to be his GB/FB/LD rates. If he can keep smashing liners and flies all year even if some of his other numbers regress, he may well cruise to the MVP award.

Utley claims NL Player of the Month honors

WholeCamels — Sat, 03 May 2008 21:47:17 -0000

Extry! Extry! Read all about it!

From the article:

For setting the highest definition of excellence, Sharp, the presenting sponsor of the National League Player of the Month Award, presents Chase Utley with a 52" AQUOS®. Sharp AQUOS is the "Official High-Definition Television of Major League Baseball." Chase will also receive a specially designed trophy to mark his achievement.

Ya know, Chase ol' pal, if you ain't be needin' that tell-o-vision set, I can think of someone who DOOESSSS!!! wink.

Outman, Castro to Bullpen; Recall Ahead?

dajafi — Fri, 02 May 2008 13:49:57 -0000

A quick one this morning from the Reading Eagle:

Word came down from Philadelphia Thursday to shake up the Double-A club’s pitching staff, with Josh Outman and Fabio Castro sent to the bullpen.

The move of Castro isn’t a surprise: All but one of his 26 appearances with Philadelphia over the last two seasons have come out of the bullpen.

For the 23-year-old Outman, however, it’s big news since he’s been projected as a starter and a potential member of the rotation in Philadelphia.

The order to get him accustomed to coming out of the bullpen signals that the Phillies see him helping them, and soon. He could very well be in the big leagues by mid-June.

“They feel like the need in the major leagues (right now) is for a left-handed reliever,” said Phillies minor league pitching coordinator Gorman Heimueller. “I think he suits that (role). I have no doubt that he’s got the stuff to do it.”

J.C. Romero is the only left-hander in Charlie Manuel’s bullpen in Philadelphia.

I'm generally in favor of breaking in young pitchers in relief roles, though there's a question of whether Outman has made enough progress with his secondary pitches that this won't slow his long-term development, assuming he's still ticketed for the rotation long-term. But the time to win is now, and he could be a weapon in the bullpen. The same is true for Castro, who has filled a LOOGY role with the Phils at times over the last two seasons and has quality pitches but lacks command.

The moves indicates that the Phillies have little or no confidence in Steve Kline, the veteran lefty reliever now pitching for triple-A Lehigh Valley, and little or no interest in recently released LOOGY Ray King.

Is It Time To Bench Pedro Feliz?

pacino — Thu, 01 May 2008 04:14:31 -0000

Also posted at HTM

When Pedro Feliz was signed to a 2 year, 8.5 million dollar deal in the off-season I had my reservations about the whole thing. Basically, I looked at these things called 'facts' and wondered why the Phillies should be starting a guy with a ludicrously low on-base percentage (OBP). Here were my thoughts on the signing:

So what do I think? I think he’ll be a slight upgrade over Nunez/Dobbs/Helms, but he’s no great shakes. He’s a below-average hitter, as his career 84 OPS+ shows(100 is average). He’s a terrific defensive third baseman, but does that make up for his horrible patience at the plate? Somewhat, but that’s only because of the trash that was thrown out at third base the past couple seasons. Feliz is not a big upgrade, he’s a VERY small upgrade…VERY small. It seems like a waste of money, to be honest. We could’ve spent no money and gotten production that was only a little worse. Considering I feel a large part of offense is getting on base, his horrendous .288 career OBP is worrisome. His career EQA (basically an offensive metric which attempts to put everything together independent of park and league effects) is .244. .260 is league average, FWIW. Helms’ career EQA is .263.

Well, it looks like I've been largely vindicated. Feliz is posting career lows in damn near every category except one...he actually has 7 walks. However, that may be due to a combination of his spot in the order and the hitting philosophy of the Phillies ballplayers and hitting coach rubbing off on him somewhat. Problem is, when he tries to swing that bat he just can't get it to fall to a spot without a defender there ready to scoop it up. He went 0-3 last night against the San Diego Padres to drop his average to a putrid .209, while his OBP dropped to .265 and his slugging percentage fell to .363. That adds up to a 628 OPS, which is a little handy-dandy indicator showing just how horrible he's been at the plate. To put that in perspective, Wes Helms, the man the Phillies basically told to not come back this season because of how much he struggled, amassed a 665 OPS in 2007 in 280 at bats. Their OPS+ is nearly identical, with Feliz at 67 in 2008 (with 100 being league average) and Helms at 68 in 2007.

The above means I was wrong in at least one respect. I stated Feliz would be an ever so slight upgrade at third base. He's actually provided no discernible upgrade in offensive production, and while his defense is better than Helms', that does little to cover up the massive problem at third.

But we have a solution! The Phillies have a potential fix for third base and it wouldn't cost them a dime. Oh, they might have a little egg on their faces, but they'll get over it. They could pull Greg Dobbs from off the bench and give him some more regular playing time.

BUT HE'S A PINCH-HITTING SPECIALIST! one might say. Perhaps, but in 35 AB thus far he's amassed a 982 OPS. Last year he had a 780 OPS in 324 AB. They started to really lean on Dobbs last season as they phased out Helms, why not again?

BUT WE PAID FELIZ ALL THIS MONEY! Teams have dead money on teams all over the league. The goal is to win, not to try to validate irresponsible free agent signings. Dobbs was a cheap get. He's shown since 2006 in Seattle that he's a major-league hitter. He's nothing special at the hot corner in regards to defense, but the man can hit fairly well. Why not go back to his bat? A near 800 OPS would do wonders for this offense. He's been getting about 2 starts a week..why not flip-flop his at bats with Feliz? No harm can come from it if Dobbs starts to struggle because Feliz is already one of the worst hitters in the league right now. Only good can come from this move.

While the Phillies are a meritocracy in other positions, such as centerfielder, they are seemingly willfully ignoring the potential to easily upgrade third base. It's time to bench Pedro Feliz.

Feliz BB/GIDP ratio

jonk — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 05:43:29 -0000

Right now he is slightly over 1 (woo hoo) with a 7:6 BB/GIDP ratio. This is a pretty decent indicatior of patience. Patience comes in many forms, but it is very important with a runner on base. This is akin to hooking up with a girl and getting to first base with her. The last thing you want to do is to GIDP, if you know what I mean and I think you all do. Alas, they don't call him Pete Happy for nothing.

Stay tuned as this is entertainment at it's finest!

Phils claim IF Oscar Robles

dajafi — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 20:36:32 -0000

So sayeth Zo, who adds that Robles will go to Lehigh Valley. Here are his career stats. According to Wikipedia--not necessarily the most reliable source--Robles holds the major league record for most career steal attempts without success (he's 0 for 8, with all attempts in his 2005 campaign with the Dodgers).

My verdict: move on, nothing to see here. He and Chris Woodward can swap I-suck stories for the Stink Pigs; I'd rather see Reading infielder Jason Donald get the call, if another reinforcement is needed.

Myers Having Velocity Issues

FuquaManuel — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 18:10:19 -0000

Apparently, the coaches are concerned about Brett Myers' recent drop off in velocity.

Myers, formerly a pitcher who hovered around 92 mph with his straight stuff, has consistently been in the mid to high 80s this season - rarely breaking 90. This rather precipitous decline in velocity has been problematic for Myers as his ERA+ of 83, his ERA of 5.11, and his 10 home runs through 37 IP indicate. It is suggested in the article that the decline in velocity has also led Myers to change his approach on the mound by compensating with more cutters, some of which he has hung in the zone and...well...you know the rest.

Dubee has suggested that Myers begin playing long toss before his starts to rebuild arm strength; Myers does not like to play long toss.

Dubee has also suggested that Myers try and rely less on his cutter and more on his curve to change speeds and make his fastball appear faster; Myers has continued to rely on his cutter.

Stubborn? I wouldn't put it past him.

In any event, something needs to change. Our already suspect starting rotation cannot afford mediocrity from a pitcher who was widely expected to be one its two anchors.

NEWSFLASH!!!

jonk — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 05:36:17 -0000

THE PHILLIES WILL END APRIL WITHOUT A LOSING RECORD FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2003!!!!!

YAHOOOEY!!!

BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH

HIT THE 75 WORD MARK!!! YAHOOEY!!!!

Eaton's Pumpkin Moments

dajafi — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 17:23:49 -0000

Adam Eaton's 2008 season through five innings on April 20: 0-0, 24.2 IP, 9 ER, 20 hits, 9 walks, 14 strikeouts, 3.28 ERA, 1.18 WHIP.

Since: 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 hits, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts, 17.18 ERA, 3.82 WHIP

This actually isn't quite fair, since all the damage done to Eaton in last night's 6-5 win at Pittsburgh came in the fourth inning. Before then, I thought he looked fairly sharp, getting swings and misses and generally attacking the strike zone with his three offerings. But, just as in the previous game against the Mets--when he looked very good through five innings and then ran into disaster in the 6th--when he lost it, it didn't come back.

I don't know what to make of that with a 30 year-old veteran. Cole Hamels and Kyle Kendrick, pitchers of very different innate ability, both have shown the kind of poise to shake off early damage and give their team a chance to win. Eaton seems to respond more the way Brett Myers did early in his career when he'd get into trouble: he speeds up his approach and tries to throw harder--which generally leads to him throwing straighter, and getting pounded.

Eaton clearly didn't like Manuel's early hook last night. But it worked--the Phils won the game--and just maybe this will get through to him that he needs to find a better response when trouble comes.

Extend Burrell

PhillyBruin — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 06:05:54 -0000

I know it was just last year when i was booing every at bat of burrell but this year is nuts! hes leading the league in RBI and hitting over .300. I hope its not just another contract year breakout but i think we need to resign him asap. he has said many times he loves philly and would never waive his no trade clause no matter who we tried to trade him too. seems like he loves it here and if we try to sign him now to another long term deal we might ge thim cheaper than if we need to fight for him as a free agent. and honestly, we need him. we have no solid left fielders in the system and especially no one that can replace 100 RBI per year. thoughts?

Tell me you're not jealous

The Navigator — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 03:30:25 -0000

The wife and I made last-minute plans for an overnighter to Pittsburgh and I can finally see PNC Park. I'd love nothing more than to see the Phils do well. So who are the Saturday night Phils I get to see? Evidently they're gonna look something like:

Eric Bruntlett, Brad Harman, Carlos Ruiz and his .484 OPS, Greg Dobbs, Utley, Burrell, Worth, Jenkins, [the three top relievers are unavailable after two days on in a row, so once Kendrick leaves in the fourth, I guess Durbin goes two, then Madson, Condrey? Seanez for sure!] and starring...

Kyle Kendrick! Woo-hoo!

At least I'll get to see PNC and have a Primanti Bros. sandwich with french fries inside. Oh, and we're facing Matt Morris and his 9+ ERA. Damn. Actually that's good - I think my wife gets bored with pitching duels - no chance of that! Although she also gets sick of games that go on for four hours...

Rollins injury -- Worse than we thought?

char6587 — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 06:24:15 -0000

This is terrible news... Seems like Jimmy could be out a lot longer than we originally thought. Time to get used to Brunty?

Is it unreasonable to ask Chase Utley to play both second AND short? maybe we could work something out where he bats two times in the order, once from the left and once from the right side of the plate? hmm...

that decision to use Rollins as a PH is just looking better and better...

Source: Jimmy Rollins Has Broken Bone in Ankle By Perry

A source has contacted OTR that Jimmy Rollins’ injury is more than just a sprained ankle. Jimmy Rollins actually has a broken bone in his ankle. On April 20th, Jimmy was placed on the 15 day DL for a sprained ankle, but he could stay on the DL longer than first anticipated.

The 2007 National League MVP has only played in 12 of the 21 games this year, but the Phillies have managed well without him. However, Rollins is a vital piece to this team if they have any chance of winning back-to-back National League East titles.