The Good Phight: FanPosts

FOXSports Reports Phils Lead Race for DeRosa

2009-11-19T06:25:37Z

http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/17644/20091118/source_phillies_lead_race_for_derosa/

Personally I was hoping for Beltre, but I guess we'll see what happens. DeRosa is definitely a solid player but I see him as about the same average, a little better power, worse defensively when comparing him to Feliz. I just think Beltre could also have an Ibanez-like season. Not only because he is coming from Safeco as Ibanez did, but also because he will be hitting with much better protection in our lineup.

Official: Goodbye Bruntlett

2009-11-16T23:23:08Z

PHILADELPHIA (AP)—Utilityman Eric Bruntlett (notes), who scored the winning run in the final game of the 2008 World Series, became a free agent after refusing a minor league assignment from the Philadelphia Phillies.

Bruntlett batted just .171 (18-for-105) in this season after hitting .217 in 212 at-bats in ’08. Bruntlett got more playing time last year because of an ankle injury to shortstop Jimmy Rollins (notes) in April and because he was a late-inning defensive replacement for former left fielder Pat Burrell (notes).

Bruntlett scored the go-ahead run in Game 5 of the World Series against Tampa Bay after entering as a pinch runner for Burrell in the eighth inning.

Pitchers John Ennis (notes) and Tyler Walker (notes), catcher Paul Hoover (notes) and infielder Andy Tracy (notes) were sent outright to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the Phillies said Monday.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-philliesmoves&prov=ap&type=lgns

All I can do is laugh, he thinks hes better then a AAA contract.

Silly Season: Halladay Rumors

2009-11-10T16:21:29Z

Promoted from FanPosts. -- WC

No breakfast links today, so I have to vent. These Halladay to Philly rumors are getting more and more ridiculous. According to Jim Salisbury, Ruben Amaro emerged from the GM meetings yesterday and stated, in no uncertain terms, that the team’s three off-season priorities are: "third base, bullpen, bench." When pressed about starting pitching, he reiterated that "we’re more bullpen-intensive than anything else." No Halladay. Case closed, right?

Nope. Despite Ruben’s clear words, Salisbury nevertheless claims that "more than one baseball official" with knowledge of the teams plans insist that the Phils are very much in the running for Halladay. So do we taken Ruben at his word, or he just blowing smoke? The Philadelphia media is certainly doing their part to fan the flames. The Inquirer posted an on-line poll asking whether the team should acquire Halladay without consideration of cost or consequence to the farm. Comcast Sportsnet Philly even speculates that we may be dangling Cole to get the trade done. And the new GM in Toronto has now reiterated his predecessor’s mantra that he’ll have to be "wowed" to trade Halladay. Sigh.

The alleged rationale for pursuing Halladay is the "win-it-now" theory before our core players leave or decline. Basically, we would trade players or top prospects for a one year rental, not unlike what the Brewers previously did with Sabathia. But is there any precedent for Philly ever doing this? Wouldn’t this be a radical departure from the way in which the team does business? This organization is finally firing on all cylinders with great players, a good front office, and a promising farm. I wish Ruben would just say we’re not pursuing Halladay and be done with this nonsense.

What To Do At Third Base?

2009-11-10T04:48:49Z

Now that a decision has been made to cut Pete Happy loose, at least for the time being, the major question of this offseason has become what Amaro will do to fill the hole at the hot corner.

Basically, it boils down to this: Get an upper-level free agent to play everyday, get a platoon bat to go with Greg Dobbs, or trade prospects for an Alex Gordon type or a true upper-tier third baseman.

Thoughts after the jump.

Free agent possibilities:

Mark DeRosa (Type B, age 34) - .250/.319/.433 for CLE/STL in 2009. OPS+ of 100. Down year. Generally OPSed around .800 as a starter prior to this year. Wrist surgery in late October. Attended UPenn. Most likely solution; has been linked to Phillies before.

Chone Figgins (Type A, age 31) - .298/.395/.393 for ANA in 2009. OPS+ of 108 with 42 SB/17 CS. top free agent third baseman. viewed as excellent defender. Hasn't been much noise that the Phils have interest here. Would be a true top of the order hitter, allowing either Rollins or Victorino to move to the seven-hole.

Adrian Beltre (no compensation, age 30) - .265/.304/.379 for SEA in 2009. career avg OPS+ of 105. Gold Glove in AL in 07 and 08. consistent 25-HR power throughout career. only 477 ABs this year due to injuries. would come cheaper than Figgins and be an upgrade over Feliz if healthy. not as patient a hitter as DeRosa or Figgins.

Joe Crede and Troy Glaus have both been mentioned, but Crede posted a miserable OPS+ of 83 last year and Glaus was hurt the whole year.

If healthy, Glaus could be the best option, with a career triple slash line of .255/.359/.497 for a career OPS+ of 121. Age is a concern as well, as next year will be his age 33 season.

Trade possibilities:

Alex Gordon (age 25, KC) - triple slash of .232/.324/.378 in 189 PAs last year. could be a classic buy-low option. Bill James is bullish on his 2010 potential, forecasting an .822 OPS. if they can acquire him for Michael Taylor it could make sense to do a deal. Lefty batter with platoon splits is probably not a good fit for the Phillies lineup.

Scott Rolen? Michael Young (too pricey)?

Within:

The Phillies have no one in their minor league system with the potential to play third base at the major league level right now. It appeared Jason Donald might be that guy, but he is obviously now the property of the Cleveland Indians. Greg Dobbs is fit to bat against righthanders, but is worthless against lefties and isn't up to par with the glove.

My opinion:

Troy Glaus is the best option out there if healthy and interested in coming to Philadelphia. His powerful righty bat could slot into the middle of the order nicely. Imagine a three-through-seven of Utley, Werth, Howard, Glaus and Ibanez. Pretty nice, right? However, he made $12 million in 2009 and 2008, so he'll be more expensive than Feliz. The lost season could discount his value, but how much depends to be seen. Unfortunately, there haven't yet been any rumors linking him to the Phils. He also carries the advantage of requiring no compensation picks.

DeRosa is the most realistic and likely possibility. He provides a nice blend of affordability, power, and defense. I would not be upset if the Phils went after him.

Figgins is the premium guy out there, for obvious reasons. However, I don't see the Phils paying his price.

Beltre would be an upgrade as well. He'll give you better defense and the familiar lack of walks and patience. He is probably going to come cheaper than Glaus, and definitely cheaper than Figgins.

I expect DeRosa as target numero uno. If Rube doesn't get his man, I'd look for the Phils to step back and see how the market plays out before committing to anyone.

I'm tired of the money argument.

2009-11-07T19:50:12Z

I am a Phillies fan, but I am tired of the Yankees spend too much argument. I am only tired of it, because I see fans on here wondering what the Philies are going to do at third base and pitching. Our fans have poured millions and millions of dollars into that stadium the past five years. The Owners can't use that small market nonsense anymore. Just off the money they made this postseason they should be able to lock up Lee and make a run at Lachey, and overpay for Figgins. Instead of complaining about how the Yankees spend too much we should be complaining that our ownership is still to stingy. I don't want to hear the lame argument that revenue is not garanteed, and how the postseason is not a garantee. We are not Pittsburgh, We are not going to go away if we have a down year or two as long as we know the ownership is making efforts to give us a winner. In the down years the Vet was a toilet and the ownership bailed out on all of us. They said they needed a stadium and they got it.

If you take a number like 70 dollars for a playoff ticket and multiply it by 45,000 and multiply that by the 8 home games. That's 25 million, there is probably another 12-15 million in concessions, and another 60 million in merchandise, I am sure there is money from FOX and TBS. They should spend it, the Yankees do.

The other end of this argument is as much as it sucks too watch the Yankees buy title after title it is way better to watch them lose to the Marlins and the Diamondbacks.

trade

2009-11-07T17:03:58Z

the most important thing the phils can do this offseason is to trade an outfielder .. Werth is coming into his own as a star so i think its safe to say we keep him. that leaves victorino and ibanez. if someone would give us value for ibanez i would do it in a second, however given his age and declining numbers there wont be many takers. that leaves us to victorino. shane put up decent but not great numbers this season, and is very good defensively. however, michael taylor is ready now. he will easily give us similar output to shane with more upside. he has better power and just as good speed, the guy really is a 5 tool player. so the phils can ill afford to pull a howard and leave him sit in minor leagues. trading shane for a pitcher would improve our pitching and not lose much in our lineup. the giants were rumored to be sending cain this way for victorino and a prospect. that ship has long sailed and i dont expect our average outfielder to fetch a star like cain, but there our guys such as javier vasquez and erik bedard who would bolster our rotation. which outfielder would u trade and for who?

Predictions of minors call ups' for next year

2009-11-06T21:28:05Z

whats going on guys? my first post here (obviously im on bleeding green), but i wanted to bring up some of the phillies minor league tallent. Who do you think will come up? and what predictions of them do you have?... this is also baring any trade speculation.

-honestly i am starting to think that Drabek is ready to be a fifth starter. it pains me to think Moyer will be starting again next year (although i have the utmost respect for him). I believe the rotation of Lee, Hammels, Blanton, Happ, Drabek has the "potential" to be a great one. i put that in " " because it depends on how Drabek can pitch in the majors and if Happy can not have a sophomore year slump.

-between brown and taylor i feel that one of them is ready to make an impact on our roster. I was also hoping they would do a platoon between Ibanez and one of the two during the season like they did with Werth/Jenk.

beside that i thought the season was great guys. while i am disheartened that they lost the world series it puts a chip on our shoulder next year. GO PHILLS!!

Not Philly Enough

2009-11-04T21:42:39Z

Promoted from FanPosts, some laughs on an otherwise gloomy day... WC

This week, the Inqy's Frank Fitzpatrick wrote an article claiming that there was simply "not enough Philly" in Cole Hamels, and that this would eventually get to him. I realized that this impenetrable logic also spells doom for many other Phillies, who just may not be Philly enough to make it in this town.

1. Jimmy Rollins
He's too busy doing Red Bull endorsements and bowling for charity to really get his head in the game. And he loves Jay-Z, who's from NY. What kind of Philadelphian listens to Jay-Z?? Or hip-hop, for that matter-- god knows it's not blue-collar enough, always talking about champagne, bling, and whips that couldn't even haul a half-ton of gravel.

2. Shane Victorino
He's from Hawaii (if that IS his real birth certificate). Plus, he replaced Aaron Rowand: the greatest Philadelphia athlete of all time. Shane runs too fast and plays too well to ever have to run into a wall to make a catch, and that's not how we get it done in Philly.

3. Chase Utley
Much like his Hollywood pal, Cole Hamels, Chase Utley is just another slicked-back Cali pretty boy. And he never smiles during games, which just shows that he doesn't have the heart or love of the game that great players need to succeed.

4. Ryan Howard
The man does ads for Subway cheesesteaks. Nothing he could do on the field can make up for that.

5. Jayson Werth
Ok, I want to give it to him because he really does have the facial hair to be Philly enough. But who the hell spells a nice normal name like Jason with a Y? Way too fancy, if you ask me. And he almost looks like he's having TOO much fun. He should take a page from Chase Utley's handbook, and get more serious about the game.

6. Raúl Ibáñez
Seriously, what Philly fan wants a jersey with that many accents on it?

7. Pedro Feliz
No one likes him anyway. Also, Geno's wouldn't even serve him a steak.

8. Carlos Ruiz
He's from Panama. Isn't that where Abreu was from? And we all know how THAT worked out.

9. Cliff Lee
Did you hear him the other day when he said he wasn't nervous before the WS? That just shows he doesn't take the game seriously enough. Everyone knows Happ should've started Game 1 instead.

10. Brad Lidge
He's not performing as well as he used to, but gosh darn it does he try hard! He's got a great face of hair. Despite us being the defending champions, he makes us look and feel like underdogs. And if there's one thing Philly loves, it's an underdog. There you have it-- Brad Lidge is the Philliest Phillie we've got.

Phillies Breakfast Links, November 5, 2009: Too Depressed to Eat Breakfast, Ma Edition

2009-11-05T13:04:16Z

My last few playoff fill-ins on Breakfast Links were wonderful opportunities, for which I remain grateful. This morning, however, I have been passed a bitter cup: Skipper has tapped me to take one for the team on the morning after losing the World Series. Per Skip: Post some links and get out of there. Get on with the offseason while the Blog Lords get a head start cleaning out their lockers. But it breaks my heart. Just hard to watch. Just, just...Hurt.

So I tried to give the Yankees props. I'll even cop to the notion that they were the better team, and think that Matsui being the first Japanese player to win Series MVP is a great story, way better than this one, even though it came at the expense of Chase Utley. And if you thought last night sucked for you, imagine if you were this guy. Even, to a lesser degree, this guy.

But then I took a look at this:

Ghosts of '57 Game 7 remain just that

I swear this was one of the first postgame links out there last night. But for crissakes, the lede that you take is that it's a damn shame there's no game 7 in Yankees Stadium, and this continues a 52-year drought of game 7s? Right there-RIGHT THERE-I tapped into the vein of deep Yankee Loathing from which I will never return. It just seems like this is what America would be like if the Nazis had won. Don't believe me? Then try this.

So even though I feel like one of those guys in the late afternoon at the Aqueduct, stooped over below the day's post-racing cigarette haze picking through discarded betting slips looking for a winner, there really is reason for optimism as a Phillies fan, say, compared to the last team that managed to beat the Yankees in the World Series. Still hurts though, even though this '09 team didn't quit. Even though Manuel has plenty of room to be second-guessed.

Transit union chief says he's "most hated" man in Philadelphia. Joe Buck and Tim McCarver breathe easier. Everyone else has to walk or ride their bike to work. Meanwhile, in New York, well, you know.

Ogasawara busts out but keeps poker face.Game 3 of the Japan Series. Maybe somewhere over in Japan there's a slugging third baseman. And now it's official: the Japan Series is the baseball equivalent of Branson, MO. Go Ham Fighters!

That's all I have stomach and time for this morning. Feel free to add your links in the comments. Thanks again to all for a fun season. Until right now. Wait 'til next year.

Next Year!

2009-11-05T04:59:21Z

Who's excited for next year?

Full year of Cliff Lee?

Hamels will return to form.

Chooch turning into a stud.

More Werth antics.

Beating the Mets!

How long til pitchers and catchers report?

Crazy Phillies Fan Who Offered Sex for World Series Tickets Tells All!

2009-11-03T23:30:46Z

boxofmess.com/?p=4118

Check out this article on Susan Finkelstein. Who is this? She is the woman who was arrested for offering sex for Phillies World Series Tickets on Craigslist. In this interview she tells all about what happened and how she was arrested by the police in a degrading way. This is a great read for anyone!!!

Make sure you spread this link as this site is the only one to interview her along with CBS. I personally like the interview a lot myself and so will you.

Larry Bowa comes close to call the Phillies cheaters

2009-11-03T18:18:40Z

http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2009/11/dodgers_third-base_coach_larry.html

I'm sure you have heard that Larry Bowa said he has heard other teams calling the Phillies cheaters, that they steal signs. I have not seen evidence of this (pictorially), so the glove doesn't fit yet (yes I made a bad OJ pun there). However this is a concern, and I might question my fanhood to the Phillies if this turns out to be true. It is against the spirit of the game (even if it is there historically, even if it was in The Shot Heard 'Round the World). This to me would equate what the Yankees have been doing for years, trying to buy a championship. Not the hard way, like last year for the Phils.

However, it has not been mentioned that the Yankees were constantly going to the mound in the ALCS. I remember that they pulled a 5 minute stall tactic by having the catcher go to the mound, coach, throwing to first, catcher going to mound numerous times to get to Mariano Rivera - before a pitch was thrown. Plus other times trying going to the mound in the same at bat. In Anaheim, there is no center field seats, there is the rock pile, where some media sit. Only seats to left and right of center. Honestly, it was sick, I really hope MLB makes a rule for number of times a catcher or fielder can visit the mound, much like coaches and managers.

Poll

If the Phillies are proven to steal signs, would you care?

Yes

38 votes

No

104 votes

Don't care

35 votes

177 votes | Poll has closed

STFU You

2009-11-03T14:06:12Z

Look, some person who is not smart, most people around here probably hate you. You may have hit your wife in public, or maybe you have complained about your role 100s of times, and there might be a reason why people call you a 10 cent head. Maybe I have always backed you, just because I thought you could pitch well or do something else worthwhile.

Since someone like you hasn't done crap for us this year, get the hell out. That bling on your finger, if you were here last year? That is due to Cole Hamels. I know you can't read this you probable illiterate douche, but maybe you can have a team official or somebody else act it out for you.

TALKING SHIT RIGHT AFTER THE PHILLIES WON A GAME TO KEEP FROM BEING ELIMINATED IS RETARDED.

What the hell could possibly go through that air-tunnel in your head where in such euphoria after a big win, the first thought that you maybe had is to deride your teammate or someone you know, regardless of the stupid things he said. I am glad you won't be back next year or sometime in the undetermined future.

[Edit: Sotry made more ambiguous to not to refer to anyone in particular.]

World Series Simulation, Game #6

2009-11-03T05:53:38Z

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
PHI	NYA	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	NYA	64.97%	64.66%	61%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability. Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible. Not an easy thing to do.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	NYA 4-3
2	NYA 3-2
3	NYA 5-4
4	NYA 6-5
5	NYA 2-1
6	PHI 4-3
7	NYA 4-2
8	PHI 3-2
9	PHI 5-4
10	NYA 5-3
11	NYA 3-1
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 7-6
15	NYA 6-2
16	NYA 6-4
17	NYA 6-3
18	NYA 5-1
19	PHI 4-2
20	PHI 5-3
21	PHI 2-1
22	NYA 3-0
23	NYA 7-2
24	PHI 6-5
25	PHI 6-4
26	NYA 7-1
27	NYA 4-0
28	NYA 7-3
29	PHI 5-2
30	NYA 7-4
31	PHI 3-1
32	PHI 6-3
33	NYA 6-1
34	NYA 7-5
35	NYA 8-3
36	PHI 4-1
37	NYA 8-7
38	NYA 1-0
39	NYA 2-0
40	PHI 7-4
41	NYA 5-0
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 7-6
44	NYA 8-4
45	PHI 6-2
46	NYA 6-0
47	NYA 8-2
48	NYA 8-1
49	NYA 9-3
50	PHI 7-3
51	PHI 5-1
52	NYA 8-5
53	NYA 8-6
54	NYA 9-2
55	PHI 2-0
56	PHI 8-6
57	NYA 9-4
58	PHI 8-4
59	NYA 9-8
60	PHI 8-3
61	NYA 7-0
62	NYA 10-2
63	NYA 9-1
64	PHI 6-1
65	PHI 8-5
66	PHI 4-0
67	PHI 8-7
68	NYA 9-5
69	NYA 8-0
70	PHI 7-2
71	NYA 10-4
72	PHI 3-0
73	NYA 10-3
74	PHI 1-0
75	PHI 8-2
76	NYA 9-6
77	PHI 7-1
78	NYA 10-1
79	NYA 10-5
80	NYA 9-0
81	PHI 9-8
82	PHI 9-4
83	PHI 5-0
84	NYA 11-3
85	NYA 11-5
86	PHI 9-5
87	PHI 8-1
88	PHI 9-2
89	PHI 9-3
90	NYA 11-2
91	NYA 11-1
92	PHI 9-6
93	NYA 9-7
94	NYA 10-6
95	NYA 11-4
96	PHI 10-3
97	PHI 9-7
98	PHI 6-0
99	NYA 10-9
100	PHI 10-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
P.Martinez	6.4	3.994	2.521	1.17	1.465	5.524
A.Pettitte	7.0	5.164	2.746	0.78	1.255	4.360

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	J.Rollins	.2986	D.Jeter	.3301
2	S.Victorino	.2937	J.Damon	.3450
3	C.Utley	.3195	M.Teixeira	.3843
4	R.Howard	.3124	A.Rodriguez	.3837
5	J.Werth	.3282	H.Matsui	.3533
6	R.Ibanez	.3052	J.Posada	.3590
7	B.Francisco	.2921	N.Swisher	.3454
8	P.Feliz	.2810	R.Cano	.3233
9	C.Ruiz	.2821	B.Gardner	.3003

Jeff Passan Rips Phillies Decision to Not Pitch Lee in Game 4

2009-11-02T21:48:42Z

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-leegamefour110209&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

In my opinion, this is one of the dumbest things I have ever read. Joe Blanton one up'd CC Sabathia in every category except runs and innings pitched last night. Cupcakes gave up less hits, struck out more, and walked less than Sabathia (his WHIP was lower, too). The poor offense (and He-who-shall-not-be-named) is what cost the Phillies game 4, not the lack of Lee. Passan has now lost all credability with me. Thoughts anyone?

Fun with statistics

2009-11-02T19:29:45Z

Collective World Series Batting Line

Yankees: .235/.311/.394 -- .705 OPS -- 5 HR -- 6 2B
Phillies: .220/.297/.447 -- .744 OPS -- 7 HR -- 9 2B

Collective World Series Pitching Line

Yankees: 36.0 IP -- 29 H -- 15 BB -- 36 K -- 1.22 WHIP -- 4.98 FIP
Phillies: 35.0 IP -- 31 H -- 10 BB -- 41 K -- 1.17 WHIP -- 3.57 FIP

Pythagorean Expected Record

Yankees: 2.3 - 1.7 (19 RS, 16 RA)
Phillies: 1.7 - 2.3 (16 RS, 19 RA)

Granted, the pythag is based on a 4-game sample size, but I think that on the whole, everything above is instructive on one key point: the Yankees aren't really dominating this Series on any level. The overall statistics paint a picture of a pretty close Series, but of course, the 3-1 deficit tells us differently.

Now, there are two statistical categories that can show why such a discrepancy in overall results can come from such similar statistical profiles: performance with runners in scoring position, and batting average on balls in play. I don't have the former data for this Series, but I went back through the play by play to figure out the latter, and I don't think anyone who's watched the Series will be surprised at the result...

World Series BABIP

Yankees: .302
Phillies: .253

Oh well, what can you do? As noted philosopher Forrest Gump once said, "Shit happens." It's scant consolation for Phillies fans as we sit here in a 3-1 hole in the World Series, but perhaps it can dispel the myth that the Phillies just haven't showed up to play this Series.

Yankees fan going to game 5

2009-11-02T15:39:23Z

Just want to see the game.

I am a die-hard Yankees fan that dosent shit on other teams except Boston, but going to the game tonight with my daughter and I have never been to Philly. Will I be treated fairly or should I not go becuase how rabid Philly fans are, from what i have heard. Just hope for a great game, cant wait to see this pitching duel between Lee and Burnett.

World Series Simulation, Game #5

2009-11-02T06:34:11Z

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Sunday at 10:00PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	A.Burnett vs C.Lee	PHI	57.45%	63.03%	60%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator says the Phillies will most likely live to play another day, mostly due to the deft pitching of Cliff Lee. There is around 5-1/2 percentage points of difference between the Simulator and Vegas on Game #5. AccuScore's numbers are out and they are taking the middle ground.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 3-2
2	PHI 4-3
3	PHI 2-1
4	PHI 5-4
5	NYA 3-2
6	PHI 3-1
7	PHI 4-2
8	PHI 4-1
9	NYA 4-3
10	PHI 5-2
11	NYA 2-1
12	PHI 5-3
13	PHI 5-1
14	NYA 5-4
15	NYA 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 3-1
18	PHI 3-0
19	PHI 6-2
20	PHI 4-0
21	PHI 1-0
22	PHI 2-0
23	NYA 5-3
24	PHI 6-3
25	PHI 5-0
26	PHI 6-4
27	PHI 6-1
28	NYA 5-2
29	PHI 7-2
30	NYA 6-5
31	NYA 4-1
32	PHI 6-0
33	NYA 1-0
34	NYA 6-4
35	PHI 7-3
36	PHI 7-6
37	NYA 2-0
38	PHI 7-1
39	NYA 6-3
40	NYA 6-2
41	PHI 7-4
42	PHI 7-5
43	PHI 8-2
44	NYA 5-1
45	PHI 8-1
46	PHI 8-3
47	NYA 7-4
48	PHI 7-0
49	NYA 3-0
50	NYA 7-6

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
A.Burnett	6.4	6.233	2.847	0.948	1.381	4.522
C.Lee	7.4	5.892	1.241	0.596	1.089	3.157

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3159	J.Rollins	.3413
2	J.Damon	.2896	S.Victorino	.3456
3	M.Teixeira	.3479	C.Utley	.3818
4	A.Rodriguez	.3287	R.Howard	.3886
5	R.Cano	.2995	J.Werth	.3504
6	N.Swisher	.2954	R.Ibanez	.3609
7	M.Cabrera	.2704	P.Feliz	.2965
8	J.Molina	.2449	C.Ruiz	.3091
9	A.Burnett	.1366	C.Lee	.1341

Hamels, Neyer, Martino

2009-11-01T22:06:21Z

Since Cole Hamels' 2009 season has been covered in some depth on TGP, I thought people might find this Andy Martino blog post to be of interest.

A few thoughts:

First, Martino's criticism of Neyer is entirely fair here. I'm a longtime fan of Neyer's work and I actually agree with his ultimate conclusion about Hamels, but it can't be denied that he always has been and continues to be one of the most egregious straw-manners in the business, and that's exactly what he does to Salisbury in the linked post. Neyer could have just made his point instead of feeling like he needed to first find some sportswriter to cast as his foil. This is a piss-fight that could have been avoided.

Second, I wonder if Martino's belief that certain things have gone "wrong" with Hamels' season is necessarily at odds with the view that most of us share here - that Hamels' peripherals in 2009 are similar to his peripherals in 2008. Maybe there's a way to synthesize both viewpoints. For example, I wonder if Hamels' peripherals have changed at all as the season has gone along. If they have, that could support the "Verducci" hypothesis - that he's been wearing out as his innings have accumulated. Just from eyeballing the game log, his home run rate sure seems to have skyrocketed in the postseason, at least. His pitch counts have also definitely increased lately - are pitch counts necessarily a function of luck?

Third, on more of a big-picture note: while I understand that throughout the history of baseball, pitchers have never shown an ability to sustain high BABIPs and low BABIPs for very long periods of time, it begs the question: is that necessarily because outlying BABIPs are purely a matter of random chance, or could it be because outlying BABIPs are affectable by player adjustments? I don't know if there's any way to conclusively answer this question, but my initial reaction is that both possibilities are equally plausible.

World Series Simulation, Game #4

2009-11-01T16:35:09Z

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 9:30PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
NYA	PHI	C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton	NYA	62.26%	62.51%	65%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator thinks that Joe Blanton is mismatched against CC Sabathia. And now that the Vegas lines are up, so does Vegas and AccuScore for that matter. Vegas and the Simulator are in almost perfect agreement as to the likelihood of a Yankees victory. 38% win probability is not a huge underdog, so a Phillie victory is quite possible, but either Joe Blanton is going to have to be on top of his game, and or CC Sabathia is going to have to be hittable like he was to Chase Utley in Game #1. Most likely scores 7 thru 14 are the blackhole that the Phillies need to avoid. :)

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 4-3
2	PHI 3-2
3	NYA 3-2
4	NYA 4-3
5	PHI 2-1
6	PHI 5-4
7	NYA 4-2
8	NYA 3-1
9	NYA 2-1
10	NYA 5-4
11	NYA 5-3
12	NYA 4-1
13	NYA 5-2
14	NYA 5-1
15	PHI 4-2
16	PHI 6-5
17	NYA 6-2
18	NYA 6-4
19	NYA 6-3
20	PHI 5-3
21	NYA 4-0
22	NYA 6-5
23	PHI 3-1
24	NYA 3-0
25	NYA 6-1
26	NYA 7-2
27	NYA 5-0
28	PHI 5-2
29	NYA 2-0
30	NYA 7-4
31	NYA 7-3
32	NYA 7-1
33	PHI 6-4
34	PHI 1-0
35	NYA 6-0
36	NYA 1-0
37	PHI 7-6
38	NYA 7-5
39	PHI 4-1
40	NYA 8-1
41	NYA 8-2
42	NYA 8-3
43	PHI 6-3
44	NYA 7-0
45	NYA 8-4
46	NYA 7-6
47	PHI 2-0
48	PHI 6-2
49	NYA 9-2
50	PHI 7-5

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
C.Sabathia	7.1	6.845	2.008	0.694	1.132	3.390
J.Blanton	6.6	5.589	2.117	1.236	1.332	4.915

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	D.Jeter	.3298	J.Rollins	.3115
2	J.Damon	.3429	S.Victorino	.3057
3	M.Teixeira	.3952	C.Utley	.3207
4	A.Rodriguez	.3840	R.Howard	.3057
5	J.Posada	.3655	J.Werth	.3307
6	R.Cano	.3247	R.Ibanez	.3045
7	N.Swisher	.3545	P.Feliz	.2884
8	M.Cabrera	.3051	C.Ruiz	.2863
9	C.Sabathia	.1340	J.Blanton	.1352