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The Mets' rotation problem and the Garcia trade

It's interesting scanning the Internets to read about the Mets' front office reaction to the news that Barry Zito won't be coming to Queens. This site offers the following:

There's little doubt the Mets have interest in some of the A's young pitchers, and should they finally decide to part with outfielder Lastings Milledge and one or two of their promising young pitchers (Aaron Heilman, John Maine or Mike Pelfrey), it's possible that New York would offer a better package for Joe Blanton. (New York's first choice would be Haren, but to get that trade done, one major-league executive speculated recently, "the Mets would have to back up the truck.'')
...
It would be unwise to shoot a Mets bullet like Lastings Milledge now and find you need him in June or July to solve another need. The advice here is to obtain a proven innings-eater such as Baltimore's Rodrigo Lopez, who like Bronson Arroyo would benefit in going from the AL East to the NL and would not cost much in a trade, plus sign a high-risk, high-reward type such as free agent Tony Armas.
...
The Mets want to trade for a starter. But the White Sox do not appear ready to move another veteran. The A's would have to be overpaid to part with even Joe Blanton, much less Dan Haren or Rich Harden. The Mets don't like the Dodgers' Brad Penny or Philadelphia's Jon Lieber. Minaya concurs that it will be a "long shot" to pry an impact starter. But the Mets do not need to do that now.

Star-divide

And mlbtraderumors has this:

One option is to hit up Billy Beane for Rich Harden or Danny Haren.  Bob Klapisch reports that Omar Minaya spoke to Beane ten days ago, hoping for a deal of Aaron Heilman and Lastings Milledge for Harden.  Beane countered with Carlos Gomez and one of Milledge/Philip Humber/Mike Pelfrey.  Those talks are proposals are pretty far apart.

Let's just focus on those A's pitchers for a minute. Joe Blanton is 26 years old, and in 2006 he went 16-12 with a 4.82 ERA as opponents hit .309 against him. Dan Haren is also 26 and pitched better last season, going 14-13, 4.12 with an outstanding K/BB ratio of 176/45. Rich Harden is 25 and went 4-0, 4.24 in an injury-shortened season, but looked for all the world like an emerging ace in 2004-5 with a combined 21-12 record and nearly a strikeout per inning.

All things considered, Haren is probably the prize of the group; Harden's got as much or more upside, but his health questions probably depress his value a tad. Even for Harden or Blanton, Beane evidently won't take a combination of Milledge, one of the more complete outfield prospects in the game, and Heilman, who could start or set up for most teams. My prediction is that if the Mets and A's do get together on a deal, it will be Blanton or Harden for three of the Mets' top prospects--Milledge or Gomez, Pelfrey or Humber, and another arm further from the big leagues.

Compare this to the deal Pat Gillick made in trading two probably lesser prospects (depending on how much you like Gio Gonzalez) for Freddy Garcia, whose career performance has compared well to that of any of the A's starters. Garcia's more expensive, of course, and he's just a year from free agency. But to a team like the Mets, with essentially unlimited resources, neither of those considerations count for much. And they'd probably prefer a somewhat older guy who's pitched and won in the postseason to a kid who's thrived in the low-intensity Oakland market but has yet to be tested on a bigger stage.

It's hard for me to believe that the Mets couldn't have made a better offer for Garcia than what Chicago took from the Phils. Maybe Omar Minaya, whom I think is a pretty good GM for that team, was so fixated on Zito or other options that he didn't pursue a deal with the White Sox as adroitly as he could have. Maybe Minaya and Kenny Williams don't mesh well. But whatever the case, today it looks like the Phils might have gotten a big win over the division rival they're chasing.

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Makes sense
I've barely even read any rumors linking the Mets to anyone but Zito. Certainly it's impossible to know what was discussed behind closed doors, but it sure seems like they had blinders on in their pursuit of Zito.

I have to wonder, why didn't the Mets just pay the guy? I think we all agree that he got too much money, but what free agent doesn't? That's the nature of the free agent market. The Mets have the money and are in a win now mode. If they could win a title now when they have Glavine/Pedro/Wagner wouldn't the big money they owe Zito late in the contract be worth it? Especially for a team that can afford it?

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by JasonB on Dec 29, 2006 1:18 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

luxury tax?
That's all I can come up with--where the Giants weren't pushed over the threshhold by this deal, the Mets would have been, so the "real" price for Zito's services might have cracked $20m/year.

I also wonder if the player's preference was to stay in the Bay Area. Couldn't really blame him for that; I love both towns, but the culture change for a west coast guy could be rough.

by dajafi on Dec 29, 2006 1:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

east vs west
that whole 'west coast guy' vs 'east coast culture shock' gets more play than it should, probably, but this is one case when i'm inclined to buy it.

by gr on Dec 29, 2006 1:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that last paragraph
is an interesting concept. perhaps gillick beat minaya to the punch or for whatever reasons, the mets didn't like what they saw in garcia. hard to say. seems to me the mets just got caught playing a fruitless waiting game (i resisted the urge to use "caught looking").

but on the As point, i just don't see beane trading away one of those pitchers for that package to the Mets. none of the A's "big 3" is close to free agency -- i think they all still have at least 2 years, and haren has 3 or 4. the mulder and hudson deals were in their last years. its a not a deal he has to do because, frankly...milledge, humber, pelfrey: are any of them can't-miss? those are the mets top 3 prospects, according to many rankings. don't get me wrong, its a nice package, but...

by gr on Dec 29, 2006 1:26 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yep, good point
I was thinking about that too. Generally, Beane doesn't move guys unless and until they're about to get beyond his means and his control. I think all three of those A's pitchers are as far from f/a as Utley is, or farther. If the Mets blew him away--and I maybe differ with you in believing that three prospects from their system might qualify--I could see it, but he certainly won't be lowballed for any of them.

by dajafi on Dec 29, 2006 1:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Blanton
He is the one guy among the A's 3 young guns who I can see Beane dealing. The only thing that will prevent Harden from becoming a true ace is arm trouble. Haren is quickly developing into a legit #2. Both of these guys are probably untouchable as it would be almost impossible to acquire that combination of performance, potential, and cost.

Blanton is clearly a step or two below Harden and Haren. He has average to below average stuff and little upside. He appears to be a #3/4 innings eater. While such a pitcher has value to the A's on the mound, he may have more value in trade with a team as desparate for pitching as the Mets. Considering that the A's lack an impact outfielder and starter in the high minors, I could see Beane jumping all over a Blanton + grade C prospect for Milledge + Pelfrey/Humber deal.

by Celebre Twins on Dec 29, 2006 3:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

humber and pelfrey
both look pretty good -- great college stats -- but perhaps i was influenced by FTN's analysis yesterday of their shortcomings.

by gr on Dec 29, 2006 3:09 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's tough
To really gauge what a player can do when they have so little pro ball experience. Pelfrey sits in the 93-95 mph range with his fastball, but can dial it up to 97 with regularity, and his fastball has violent sinking/tailing motion to it, which induces a ton of groundballs. That's a good thing, for sure, and his fastball is considered by a lot of talent evaluators to be one of the best in the minors. But, because of how good his fastball is, he's never really "needed" secondary pitches. This is where I get confused, because you'd think that smart college/high school coaches would understand the importance of secondary pitches, and even if a guy doesn't need to rely on them at the high school or college level, he'd want to keep the pitches sharp, or at worst, usable. Pelfrey was excellent in college, and because of his fastball strength and his pitching acumen, he has a ton of upside. I didn't want to make it appear that I didn't like his chances, I just think he's at least 1 year, maybe 1.5 years away from being ready to be a positive contributor. Learning a breaking ball and developing depth to a changeup at Shea Stadium is probably not the ideal learning environment, but the Mets brass might not have much of a choice.

As for Humber, he's in the same boat as Jeff Niemann from the D-Rays. No one has ever doubted his stuff, but Rice pitchers have experienced little or no success in recent years at the top level, and many of them have suffered major arm injuries, which have hit Niemann, Humber and Townsend, the "Big 3" from a few years ago. Obviously, teams tend to look past the injury trend and draft them anyway. Boston took Bryce Cox in the 3rd round in 2006, and according to some, he's got one of the filthiest sliders in all of baseball. Will his elbow fall apart in a year too? Who knows. I definitely think Humber can be a great pitcher, but will his health allow it?

by FTN414 on Dec 29, 2006 3:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

damn
i replied below. this site still fakes me out sometimes.

by gr on Dec 29, 2006 5:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

on prospecting
i think your point yesterday was that they weren't ready now but i went a step farther and read it to mean that they each have their gavin floyd-itis of a certain ilk. what struck me yesterday was your mention of their weakness of secondary pitches. i played ball all through high school and such and have always had appreciation for the finer points of the game, but never pitched beyond occasional relief. this past season was the first when i really started to pay attention the intricacies of pitching and pitches. so, its all alittle new to me, but very engrossing.

after watching floyd and madson this past season, the importance of secondary pitches obviously really strikes a chord. seems like once a pitcher gets into his mid-20s, he doesn't develop a knockout slider or curve anymore. maybe some guys do, but no one off the top of my head. at that point, it seems to me that most often, the choices are splitter or change. one of those guys, pelfrey or humber or maybe both, is/are 24.

i've never seen pelfrey, but i wonder if his arm slot has anything to do with his lack of impact pitches past his fastball. isn't that one of the major barriers? at the high school level, coaches probably aren't as willing to play with that sort of technicality if they have a guy with stud qualities who can more than get by. why fool with that? with college, especially a major program, that's no excuse.

by gr on Dec 29, 2006 5:04 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pelfrey
If you're curious about his motion, head here

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050607&content_id=1079411&vkey=news_nym &fext=.jsp&c_id=nym

It's his scouting video. Use Explorer, it never works in Firefox.

Now, I'm not a pitching coach, but I think from that arm slot, he'd be able to develop and slider or curve. He's much higher up than a guy like Heilman. As you can see, he does have an electric fastball, that's why the promise is there.

by FTN414 on Dec 29, 2006 6:46 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and boras is his agent
thanks, i think i've found a brand new, time-killing distraction. his slot looks to be right on the 3/4 quarters angle, maybe a hair below it. but, then again, i don't know much either.

now i'm going to go back and find the gvin floyd scouting video and figure out what happened to him. hey, there could be a future in this.

by gr on Dec 29, 2006 9:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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