Community Projection: Chase Utley

by WholeCamels on Feb 16, 2006 10:18 AM EST in News Comment 5 comments

Having looked at the calendar and counted on my fingers (the most advanced math I can handle), I realized that one Community Projection per week won't let us finish by Opening Day. So we're ramping up production.

In his first full season, the now 27 year old Utley surprised even the most optimistic of his fans, leading the team with a .916 OPS and smacking 28 HRs, all despite spending the first month and a half of the season in a platoon with ML batting champion (and starting third baseman for the 2005 Alternate Universe National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies) Placido Polanco.

Now I think very highly of Chase, but I'm still skeptical that he can maintain what he did last year. The guy played out of his mind and I think there's going to be a little bit of regression. Of course he could surprise me and I'd be very happy, but as it is I anticipate his numbers will level off or backslide slightly:

AVG: .280
OBP: .361
SLG: .494
HR: 25
R: 86
RBI: 91
SB: 14

Keep in mind this is still an excellent ballplayer and probably the best second baseman in the league. The biggest x-factor for Utley is his walk rate, which skyrocketed last year. That's a great indicator of future success, and if there's one reason why I think I might be way off with the above projections, that would be it.

Anyway, post away.

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Comments

Where is he expected to bat?

Hard to guess his R/RBI numbers without knowing what his batting position will likely be.

AVG: .305
OBP: .380
SLG: .550
HR: 30
R: 94
RBI: 108
SB: 22

I don't see much reason to predict decline here. My prediction for slight improvement here is based primarily on the assumption that he'll build on his improvement against LHP over the course of last year. Despite his early-season struggles against lefties (I think at one point he was something like 0-20), by the end of the season his OPS split vs. LHP was a respectable .819, despite a bad .219 batting average.

I also think Chase will be emboldened by his success on the basepaths last year, and will run a bit more.

by phatj on Feb 16, 2006 11:19 AM EST reply actions

slight decline, still great

I'm guessing Utley will bat third or fifth, with Abreu going into the other slot. Agree with Bake that he'll have some dropoff, but his talent and position within the batting order will insulate him pretty nicely, and could render some of his counting stats higher than last year.

AVG: .288
OBP: .375
SLG: .490
HR: 24
R: 101
RBI: 105
SB: 17

by dajafi on Feb 16, 2006 12:32 PM EST reply actions

J. Weitzel

By the end of his career, Utley will be best remembered for great hitting first, power second. Pitchers will not offer up as many pitches low and inside to Utley's zone, but he will adjust by working more balls the other way for hits. He has the potential to be a Top 5 hitter.

AVG: .315
OBP: .382
SLG: .499
HR: 20
R: 107
SB: 18

by Beerleaguer on Feb 16, 2006 1:39 PM EST reply actions