O Happy Day

by dajafi on Feb 16, 2006 12:49 PM EST in News

The four sweetest words in the English language: "Pitchers and catchers report."

If you can't be optimistic today, it's never going to happen. Looking around the Philly press, even Old Man Grumpus Bill Conlin seems to have caught the bug, as he implies that GM Pat Gillick is playing possum with his "not good enough" comments.

Then again, there's Bill's Daily News colleague Marcus Hayes--who after years of parroting the team line seems bent on showing his independent bona fides with a gloomy forecast predicting third place "at best." Given that the Marlins are pulling a "Major League" (but without Willie Mays Hays, Cerrano, Arnie from LA Law, or a Hollywood-mandated happy ending) and the Nationals have Ryan Zimmerman and a whole lotta nuthin, I have trouble seeing the Phils any lower than third; considering that the Mets are wafer-thin in the rotation and that the Braves are as or more dependent upon "young overachievers" (to use Marcus Hayes' formulation) as the Phils, upward mobility seems more likely than down, at least through these rose-colored glasses.

What Hayes fails to grasp, in his gloomy assessment of the Phils' pitching outlook, is that the team has more options at the back end of the rotation, and those options bring more upside, than last year's club. If Ryan Franklin, Ryan Madson, and Cory Lidle all struggle, let's see what Tejeda, Floyd, Brito, Rodriguez, Hamels, Haigwood and later Wolf can do. By the end of the season, it's reasonable IMO to expect that no more than three of the opening five starters will remain in the rotation, and that the team will be sharply better as a result.

Charlie Manuel is wearing the happy specs too, based on this interview with Randy Miller:

1. How are you feeling about your team at this point?

"We've got some question marks. But at the same time we've got some players, some young players, and quite a few pitchers I don't know. Basically, spring training will be real interesting. We've got a lot of guys to look at. That will keep us busy."

2. What's your primary concern right now?

"We have to stay healthy and be in shape when the season starts. I thought last year we were ready, but we got off slow. [April] was the worst month we had, and it put us in the hole."
...
9. Gillick says everyone - including his manager and coaching staff - are subject to daily evaluation. Are you worried about your job security?

"I feel like if I do my job, I won't have to worry about keeping my job. I feel like Pat Gillick is going to see me manage, how I run our club, how we play. Hey look, man, I've been in this game 40-some [bleeping] years. You think I'm worried about losing my job? I'm going to do my job. I'm not going to lose my job. We're going to come out and play. For me to worry about losing my job, damn. ... If that ain't negative, what is? In order for me to be good, damn, I've got to be positive. That's who I am."

I like Cholly, I don't care what everyone says. I really do believe that his steady hand in the clubhouse helps more than his sometimes-baffling in-game decisions hurt... though I still hope he gets better at the latter.

Personally, today marks the three-week countdown until I head down to Florida to catch some sun and spring baseball. So I got that going for me.

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cholly

if that's what he said, then he's alot smarter and aware than most give him credit for.

by gr on Feb 16, 2006 5:53 PM EST 0 recs

Well Said

I agree completely djafi, I read Hayes' comment and thought the same thing...there is no way we are finishing below Florida or Washington. Third at worst, not best. Florida obviosuly will be terrible and Washington overachieved last year AND got worse in the off-season. The Braves may do what they always do, but the Mets rotation looks shakier than the PHils and they have NO depth after trading Seo and Benson. And on offense, there is no comparison.

I know its early, but I feel like making a prediction:

91-71, two games behind ATL and...WILD CARD!

by kdon on Feb 16, 2006 9:12 PM EST 0 recs

sounds good to me

I'm not ready to make a prediction, but I'm almost certain that third is a floor, not a ceiling. You're right about the Fish and Nationals. Hayes doesn't get that the Mets shipped out 400-plus average or better rotation innings with their Seo and Benson deals, and they don't have anything like the depth and options we do. Their attack will be better, but Reyes is no leadoff hitter and Floyd, Delgado and LoDuca are all risks to get hurt or decline. And they've mostly depleted their farm system, so reinforcements will be hard to come by.

I really don't know how to evaluate the Braves at this point. They need a closer, a healthy Larry Jones Jr and a rebounding Renteria. (Yeesh, that sounds like a euphemism for something really dirty...) But they've got so much young talent in the bigs already, and are so loaded toward the top of their farm system, that there's both upside on their 25-man and a lot of depth to trade from--something Schuerholz is generally superb at.

My guess is that the Braves roster on July 31 looks very, very different than it does today; how much better they get in the next five and a half months will determine whether they win division title #16.

by dajafi on Feb 16, 2006 9:27 PM EST up 0 recs