The Reason

by David S. Cohen on Aug 16, 2006 2:59 PM EDT in News Comment 10 comments

You want the reason the Phils are suddenly scoring more runs now that they've made "the purge"? Well, here it is. It's really quite simple.

Almost everyone is hitting better. Scratch that. "Better" isn't the right word. Almost everyone on the team is killing the ball compared to what they did earlier this year.

Check out the charts below and be amazed at what this team has done over the past 18 games.

	April 3 through July 28				July 29 through August 15
Lineup Position	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS Δ
1	0.260	0.322	0.420	0.742	0.341	0.409	0.659	1.068	0.326
2	0.332	0.394	0.549	0.943	0.408	0.500	0.776	1.276	0.333
3	0.285	0.424	0.454	0.878	0.318	0.356	0.447	0.803	(0.075)
4	0.243	0.351	0.446	0.797	0.391	0.528	0.783	1.311	0.514
5	0.279	0.362	0.609	0.971	0.264	0.353	0.569	0.922	(0.049)
6	0.271	0.333	0.440	0.773	0.241	0.282	0.367	0.649	(0.124)
7	0.259	0.326	0.400	0.726	0.300	0.372	0.429	0.801	0.075
8	0.241	0.287	0.350	0.637	0.265	0.359	0.382	0.741	0.104
9	0.142	0.189	0.218	0.407	0.190	0.260	0.238	0.498	0.091

Six out of nine lineup spots are doing much better since the purge, all of them quite significantly (.075 or more difference), and three of them, three of the top four lineup spots, are murdering the ball compared to what they did for the entire season until the end of July. And, the three lineup positions that are doing worse (incidentally, the third spot is one of those, where Bobby Abreu has vacated), one of them is only moderately so and the other two are significant (.075 or more) but not a huge difference.

Illustrated differently:

	April 3 through July 28				July 29 through August 15
Field Position	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS Δ
Pitcher	0.088	0.141	0.110	0.251	0.128	0.200	0.154	0.354	0.103
Catcher	0.253	0.291	0.375	0.666	0.329	0.397	0.557	0.954	0.288
First Base	0.276	0.353	0.573	0.926	0.386	0.517	0.771	1.288	0.362
Second Base	0.316	0.380	0.535	0.915	0.310	0.348	0.440	0.788	(0.127)
Third Base	0.260	0.327	0.374	0.701	0.232	0.329	0.261	0.590	(0.111)
Shortstop	0.262	0.325	0.425	0.750	0.350	0.424	0.650	1.074	0.324
Leftfield	0.270	0.372	0.529	0.901	0.310	0.414	0.648	1.062	0.161
Centerfield	0.259	0.323	0.428	0.751	0.256	0.298	0.436	0.734	(0.017)
Rightfield	0.277	0.423	0.427	0.850	0.303	0.386	0.592	0.978	0.128
All Pinch Hitters	0.189	0.239	0.299	0.538	0.444	0.500	0.556	1.056	0.518

Centerfield production has dropped slightly, Utley has been slumping at second, and Nunez is, not surprisingly, even worse than David Bell at third. But, other than them, all six of the other positions are hitting the ball immensely better (.103 or more of a difference), and the Phils are finally getting some good pinch hitting.

How's the offense doing it over the past 18 games? We have the answer: almost every lineup and field position has significantly improved over what it did earlier in the year. That's how a team scores more runs. It's really quite simple.

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re

Nice piece man

http://hugetinymistake.wordpress.com/

by pacino on Aug 16, 2006 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

OBPs

Check out the on base percentages of the 1, 2, and 4 batters in the last 18 games. They've gotten on base roughly 47% of their plate appearances (or, to put it another way, they've made outs in only 53% of their plate appearances). That's an insane top of the lineup. With that kind of production, it's amazing the team has lost any games over the last 18!

by David S. Cohen on Aug 16, 2006 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

competition

I think there's also something to be said for the schedule the Phils have had over this span too, not to mention the solid performances from Hamels and Meyers and some decent work from Wolf. They had an absolutely brutal June, but August has been tame. I wonder what the april 3 - july 28 numbers would look like without the interleague games?

by jl323 on Aug 16, 2006 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

really?

They swept the Cardinals, who are still division leaders, on the road. They'll have played seven against the Mets after tomorrow (and gone 4-2 thus far). They had three against the Braves and three against the Reds. That's a lot of games against teams over .500. Now, the Cardinals and Mets seem to have hit rough patches when they came up on the schedule, but in terms of opponent quality this hasn't been an easy stretch.

by dajafi on Aug 17, 2006 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see your point

I remember last year the Phils were 18-7 or something close to that against the NL West and were swept by the Astros. I didn't look into it first, but I thought we may have some kind of repeat.

I do think this stretch has been relatively easier then the june 13 to july 2 stretch. Playing the AL East combined with rotation issues led to that disaster.

by jl323 on Aug 17, 2006 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

AL East

That was murder, you're right. Most of those teams are better than any NL club, and even the O's and Tampa were playing well at the time.

I have this weird feeling that the Phils' wild card hopes will be determined by how they do against the Astros and Cubs. Win 8 of those 12 games and we should be fine.

by dajafi on Aug 18, 2006 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Even the pitchers are hitting better.

Nice research, DC.

by Behan on Aug 16, 2006 9:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks exclusively to Wolf

In a blowout (one that he helped to create, mind you).

by phatj on Aug 16, 2006 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

But, I have the amazing Day-by-Day Database to thank for this one, as with many of my projects. Dave Pinto created an amazing tool for all sorts of creative analysis. Extreme kudos to him.

by David S. Cohen on Aug 16, 2006 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dave, could you do me a favor

Starting pitching is getting better. Is there a way you can see how the starters have been doing in the last 18 games. Lieber was on the record a month or so ago finding out he was having a mechanic fall, Hamels has been lights out, and the Phils are 4-0 when Wolf has pitched. Myers had issues the last 3 games but the phils won 2 of them. I was at the game on Sunday i didnt think he looked that bad, but those 3 pitches killed him. I am also curious how the RP have been doing. thanks.

by Philsin06 on Aug 17, 2006 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs