Bourn, Carrasco win Owens Awards

by dajafi on Sep 14, 2006 10:01 PM EDT in News

In a season of great pitching performances and awful hitting up and down the Phillies' minor-league system, outfielder Michael Bourn and right-handed starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco have been named as the Paul Owens Award winners for best player and pitcher, respectively, in the organization.

Bourn is a slightly over-age speed guy who started 2006 at AA, where he played for all of last season. His numbers there were, frankly, disappointing: .274 average, .719 OPS, 36 walks and 67 strikeouts in 319 at-bats. So he showed a power hitter's K rate, but just 15 extra-base hits. A look at Bourn's Reading splits doesn't even suggest that he particularly picked it up as the year went on--but he was promoted to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre nonetheless in early July. Bourn started out scalding hot, batting .319 for that month with an .856 OPS and four triples. He cooled off considerably in August, though: .207/.281/.379/.661. A .256 batting average on balls in play for that month might indicate some bad luck, but at this point Bourn looks like a bench player in the big leagues. Bourn was a combined 45 for 50 in stolen-base attempts. But a quick scan of the team's other ostensible position prospects--guys like Greg Golson, Mike Costanzo, and Brad Harman--suggests that the choice wasn't a bad one. (Actually, Costanzo's full-season numbers turned out pretty decent; he's one to watch next year.) Personally, though, I would have given it to Carlos Ruiz, who hit extremely well at Scranton (.307/.389/.505/.894, 16 HR) and could well be the Phils' starting catcher next year.

As we noted a bit more than a month ago, though, the news is much, much better on the pitching side, where Carrasco was one of perhaps five fully worthy candidates for the Owens Award.

Carrasco is a 19 year-old Venezuelan flame-thrower who bounced back in a huge way after a very rocky 2005. He finished this season 12-6, 2.26 with 65 walks and 159 strikeouts in 159 innings. He also combined on a no-hitter with since-traded relief prospect Andy Barb. With a mid-90s fastball, plus change-up and developing curve, Carrasco could be the team's best overall prospect.

Among the other strong candidates, though, were lefty J.A. Happ, a 23 year-old lefty who went a combined 10-9, 2.69 between high-A, AA, and AAA with 162 strikeouts in 160.2 innings; Zack Segovia, a 23 year-old righty who bounced back strong from 2004 Tommy John surgery and a subpar 2005 to go 16-6, 2.82 between high-A and AA; Scott Mathieson, who went 10-3, 3.40 between AA and AAA with 135 strikeouts in 127 innings before struggling in the majors (and now heading for Tommy John surgery); and Kyle Kendrick, a 22 year-old righty who went 12-9, 3.17 between A and high-A.

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Carrasco

How common is it for a young pitcher like Carrasco to have the light suddenly go on one season?

His K rate is way up this year; 8.98 K/9 vs. 6.61 in his first two seasons. On the other hand, his walk rate is up as well. The most significant change, though, and one which might be a bad sign for the future, is the tremendous drop in his hit rate: 5.81/9 vs. a previous career average of 11.20. But this is balanced by a return to GCL form in home run rate: down to just .339 per nine innings.

I guess what I'm getting at is that I wouldn't expect him to duplicate that performance next year, at least in terms of ERA, nor should we expect that hit rate to stay so low.

But maybe I'm wrong; is this kind of breakout common?

by phatj on Sep 15, 2006 8:51 PM EDT reply actions

He's still pretty young

I would think it is more common, especially at his age. I mean he's only 19. I don't know his background--maybe he didn't start to pitch until recently and he could still be learning how to pitch. He could also be still maturing physically so he could still be adjusting his delievery to reflect his relatively new body.

The problem with players under 20 or 21 it is tough to tell much about these players from stats alone. You need a good scouting report from someone who has seen or, better yet, worked with these players.

xats

by xatsman on Sep 15, 2006 9:43 PM EDT reply actions

matt maloney

arguably, the best pitcher in the system this year was maloney, not carrasco. maloney had a lower era and a higher strikeout rate. (although carrasco is probably a much better prospect.)

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2006 6:49 PM EDT reply actions

I love this discussion

how many times over the years did a young player get compared to another to show who is better. I can't remember the last time this happened. awesome. The Phils actually have young good pitching prospects and more then one.

by Philsin06 on Sep 24, 2006 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels

Off the top of my head.

by phatj on Sep 24, 2006 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

I personally never looked at floyd

as this pitcher that was going to be great. He was a high draft pick that really didn't do much in the minors above AAA. IMO. Hamels has always looked like a stud pitcher. Myers you kinda knew was going to be good. BUT, what I was refering to was multiple pitching prospects. Carrasco, Moloney, Gonzalez, Mathieson, Castro, Smith, Segovia, Happ, Mazone, Hernandez, Germano, even Brito. All of these pitchers being legit ML players.

by Philsin06 on Sep 24, 2006 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

well...

It's actually quite hard to do much in the minors above AAA. ;)

But I get your point. I never thought Floyd was likely to emerge as an ace either. His only really great performance was in 3.5 months at AA in 2004, and even there, his secondary numbers (walks, strikouts, etc) suggested that his W/L and ERA were a bit inflated.

Your full list of guys could indeed make it--but the real hope has to be that two or three of them emerge as above-average pitchers in big roles. That hope seems more realistic now than it has in a long, long time--maybe since about 1999-2000, when I remember thinking we had a ton of good prospects, many of whom worked out okay or better.

by dajafi on Sep 24, 2006 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions