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The playoff roster

The two off-days between Sunday's decisive win and Wednesday's NLDS opener give the Phillies a chance to do a few important things: shake off the hangover, catch up on sleep, and decide what 25 players they want to bring to the field for the first round.

Before setting out whom I'd put on that 25-man roster, let's take a minute to review the oft-unclear rules about eligibility:

Playoff Rosters: Playoff rosters must be set at 25, not including disabled players, on August 31. For each player on the 60-day DL, teams may add players to the eligible list during the playoffs at the same position, provided that they were in the orginization on August 31... Teams must choose 25 players from their playoff eligible list before each round of the playoffs.

This explains how, in the classic example, Francisco Rodriguez was able to help the Angels win the title in 2002 despite still being in the minors on Aug. 31. He replaced Steve Green, who had been on the 60-day DL. As it happens, the Phillies have a half-dozen guys--Zagurski, Hernandez, Madson, Lieber, Garcia, and Mathieson--on the 60-day. So they can pretty much do whatever they choose.  

Star-divide


Here's my first-round roster:

Catchers (2): Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste
Infielders (7): Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Greg Dobbs, Tadahito Iguchi, Abraham Nunez, Wes Helms
Outfielders (5): Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Michael Bourn
Pitchers (11): Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, Kyle Lohse, Jamie Moyer, Brett Myers, Tom Gordon, J.C. Romero, Geoff Geary, Clay Condrey, J.D. Durbin, Fabio Castro


That leaves Rod Barajas, Pete LaForest, Chris Roberson, Antonio Alfonseca, Jose Mesa, Adam Eaton, Kane Davis and John Ennis that I can think of cheering from the bench.

The decision to take Helms over Barajas is predicated upon Ruiz being ready to go on Wednesday and start every game of the NLDS. If Carlos isn't close to 100 percent, you probably need Rod as the fallback.

As for the last two pitching slots, I'd take Durbin as the long man and Castro as a second lefty, but I expect the team to go with Alfonseca and either Mesa or Davis. I just don't trust Alf any farther than I can throw him (i.e. not at all), and Mesa still has no stuff. Davis might come in to strike someone out, but his command is worse than the other two guys.

Also interesting will be how Charlie Manuel sets his rotation. Hamels obviously takes the ball for Game One, but then it's ambiguous. I'm guessing Kyle Kendrick will start the second game, though Lohse could be an option as well. Jamie Moyer is probably unavailable until next weekend; does he start Game Three with Lohse for Game Four if needed, or should Lohse pitch out of the bullpen with Hamels coming back on short rest?

Finally, if the Phils get through the NLDS, they might get Ryan Madson back for the League Championship Series. Adding Madson to the Trusted Three of Myers, Gordon and Romero could flip the bullpen to an actual strength--hard to believe, Harry.  

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Re: The playoff roster
This is my hope

Ruiz
Howard
Utley
Dobbs
Rollins
Burrell
Rowand
Victorino

Coste
Iguchi
Nunez
Helms
Werth
Bourn
Barajas

Hamels
Kendrick
Moyer

Lohse
Myers
Romero
Gordon
Geary
Condrey
Durbin

I think carrying more than 9 pitchers is pointless. First off, it's all hands on deck in the playoffs. You know that Romero, Gordon and Myers will pitch in every close game. Condrey is there to pitch an inning or two in a non-close game, Geary can pitch every day, and Durbin is the emergency long guy. Can anyone make a compelling argument as to why we'd need more pitchers?

by FTN414 on Oct 1, 2007 1:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
No second lefty? I know that stuff is often overstated, but you might want to try and somewhat neutralize a Helton or Gonzalez.

by dajafi on Oct 1, 2007 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
Castro struggled throwing strikes. You need guys in the playoffs who can get the ball over the plate and who know what they are doing. I don't think throwing Castro in there is the best answer. I think Romero is going to pitch in every game they need a lefty, and Manuel will just hope for the best.

I think that it would be a crime to run out of bench players in a playoff game, and we know how quickly Charlie can burn a bench up with his defensive substitutions.

You know, thinking about it more, maybe you put Eaton on the roster and use him as a pinch hitter/pinch runner. I certainly wouldn't let him throw a baseball though.

by FTN414 on Oct 1, 2007 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
I agree with FTN here.  I don't think we need 11 pitchers.  The games are spaced, and you only bring in reliable pitchers anyway.  Plus, I wouldn't want to give Manuel the option of using clunkers.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 1, 2007 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
Just got back from the City Hall rally.  Everyone on the team was wearing sunglasses - just as if they were all hungover or something (it's kind of off-and-on sunny and cloudy today).

But several guys spoke, of course, and they all sounded fine.  Big cheers for Coste, Rowand, Howard, Utley, and of course MVP chants for Rollins.  Utley even tried out some announcements to see how well we could boo (without saying which team they played for):  "Now batting: Brian Giles!  Matt Holliday!  Todd Helton!"  Considering the number of fair-weather fans out there, I was impressed at the prompt recognition of Matt Holliday as one of the Enemy.

Speaking as someone who sometimes finds himself watching What Not to Wear (truly, a loathsome show, but the GF gets hooked sometimes) - well, let's just say Tim Gunn or the Fab Five would be giving these guys a total, top-to-bottom wardrobe makeover.  Utley looked like he was trying out for Starsky and Hutch; J-Roll looked like he was showing up for a guest spot on Yo! MTV Raps circa 1988.  Jayson Werth - not even sure what that was, but it looked like he sewed it himself.

by The Navigator on Oct 1, 2007 1:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
Highlight of the day was definitely Myers in that crazy jacket dancing across the stage...or Hamels and Moyer standing next to each other and looking like father and son!

by das411 on Oct 2, 2007 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
I don't Castro in a big spot and certainly not a playoff game.  He's too wild, will throw nothing but fastballs because he will always be behind and will steal a roster spot.  I'd rather have Alfonseca (gulp) against either a left or righty with his sinker and experience than Castro, just because he is a lefty.  I agree with leaving Eaton off the roster.  He offers you nothing at this point except long term relief in a blowout and what's the point of that?  Use Durbin for that.  At this point, put Eaton on the shelf, talk to him after the season about coming to camp in better shape and hope for th e best because he shouldn't be anywhere near a Phillies mound in the playoffs unless they are decimated by injuries, and if that happens, it probably won't matter anyway.  Go Padres!  Rockies are scary hot right now...I'll pass on them.  

by delb3175 on Oct 1, 2007 2:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
Yup, no need for Eaton. I've read/heard in a couple different places that he has a minor injury in his hand or something that's contributed to his troubles; if so, consider that as yet another reason why he should head home and try again next February.

by dajafi on Oct 1, 2007 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
Seriously. Say we have a 7 run lead in Game 1. You bring in Condrey or Durbin. Say we somehow end up down 6 runs (doubtful), then you bring in Condrey or Durbin. There really is no place that Mesa or Alfonseca would pitch. The bullpen hierarchy would be

Myers
Romero/Gordon
Lohse
Geary

That's 5 guys there. I don't see a situation where you need Mesa or Alf, because Condrey has pitched just as well or better over the last 3 months. With an off day between Game 2/3, you can use the above 5 guys in every game and still not need Condrey.

by FTN414 on Oct 1, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
I don't want any pitcher that just fills innings.  The Phillies' offense is so potent, that almost no lead is safe for the opposing team, regardless of their pitcher.  That means that a 4 or 6 or even 8 run deficit cannot signal the time for just a "fill-in" pitcher.  They need to keep all games as close as possible because this offense can come back.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 1, 2007 2:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
How does the roster change depending on who wins the playoff tonight? I'd be comfortable carrying 9 pitchers against the Padres; the probability of a high-scoring extra inning game, the type where you might need 5 or 6 pitchers, isn't very high. I'm not sure of that vs. the Rockies, who have a pretty good offense.

Also, what happens if the Phillies get blown out, especially in game 1 or 3? You don't want to use the Big 3 in that situation, but unless Condrey can give you 5 or 6 innings, you might have to. I know it's the playoffs and all, but given how hard they've been ridden the past month, I think you want them as fresh as possible when it really matters.

I'm not opposed to carrying only 9 pitchers per se. If they're going to use Bourn to shadow Burrell, then maybe you want a speedy pinch runner and Laforest as a left-handed bat could be useful, especially against the Padres who don't have a bona fide lefty killer. There's a lot more mixing and matching to do with the hitters, but more contingency planning with the pitchers. How would you weigh them?

by enterpsmith on Oct 1, 2007 3:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Condrey
I thought the most interesting stat I've seen in a while is that Condrey in 33/35 starts, he has an ERA of like 1.6. The other 2, he has an ERA of like 40.0. That's pretty damn good, if you think about it.

by Alon on Oct 1, 2007 4:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
I know its everyones worst fear for eaton to make the roster.. but how probable is it that he doesn't make the cut?  I'm not sure i'm much more comfortable with durbin out of the pen than I am with eaton... also, he is certainly more valuable if we are in an emergency and need another bench guy.

by char6587 on Oct 1, 2007 5:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
I actually WANT Eaton on the roster.  I can easily go without Condrey or Castro or Durbin.  I don't want Eaton to actually pitch, but we paid this guy 8 mil a year, and he is here for the next two years.  Assuming he has no injury, he can be on the roster and pitch long relief if we have no other choice.  I know he'd understand, but I think it would even show free agents out there how the Phillies work if they keep Eaton on the roster.

And he can hit in a pinch if necessary.

by jonk on Oct 1, 2007 9:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
Condrey has been a much more valuable pitcher than Eaton over the duration of this season. Condrey has 3 real bad games on his ledger that killed his ERA, but he's been very reliable. In the 5th or 6th inning of a playoff game, I'd rather give him the ball than Eaton.

by FTN414 on Oct 2, 2007 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
If it gets to us needing Condrey, we have other options like Durbin (who I'd replace as well) who probably will be just the same (heck, even Eaton may be).

My point wasn't what we "need" for post season, cause we don't "need" 11 or 12 pitchers.  But we do "need" to keep our free agent involved since he is here for 2 more years.  I am not looking at deserve, I am just looking at the bigger picture.

by jonk on Oct 2, 2007 4:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
Re putting the Model Dictator on the roster as a second lefty, I don't think it matters what any of us thinks of him or the idea. It's not going to happen. It seems to me that Charley doesn't trust him at all and buried him in September. I can't remember Fabio getting in even in mop-up duty.

by Dalton Bouchee on Oct 1, 2007 11:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
I'd actually put him on now that we are playing the Rockies.  Having another lefty, no matter who it is, to be able to face Helton has got to be a plus.

by jonk on Oct 2, 2007 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: The playoff roster
I'd rather have a pitcher who can get guys out, regardless of what hand he throws with, over a green rookie who is prone to bouts of wildness. If you want a lefty, use Happ. I trust him more than Castro, to be honest.

by FTN414 on Oct 2, 2007 12:56 PM EDT reply actions  

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