Starting last year, I began doing player projections for Phillies players, potential Phillies players, and some rivals' players.  I've been refining my 2008 projections over the past few weeks of the season.  Some of my projections last year were pretty good, though others were admittedly terrible.  I will include those later in this post, so that you can see the limits of my projection abilities.  As for summary statistics, I was far better with projection hitters than pitchers.  For the 40 position players I worked on (with 250 PAs or more), the correlation between my projected OPS and their actual OPS was .749.  For the same set of 40 players, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA was .771.  For the 35 pitchers I projected (with 50 IP or more-- and it was mostly relievers), the correlation between my projected ERA and actual ERA was .155 and for the same 35 pitchers, PECOTA had a correlation of .273.  So those were pretty bad.  

I hope to improve those this year!  Projected playing time is assuming the Phillies do not make any moves (or for current free agents, assuming they sign them to start).  So onto the projections:

PLAYERS

C  Carlos Ruiz       .265/.331/.423 in 500 PAs, 12 HR, 18.0 VORP

*Admin Note: Moved to the front page

1B Ryan Howard    .281/.394/.587 in 670 PAs, 48 HR, 58.4 VORP
2B Chase Utley      .311/.385/.552 in 655 PAs, 28 HR, 61.5 VORP
3B Greg Dobbs      .273/.329/.433 in 480 PAs, 12 HR, 10.6 VORP
SS Jimmy Rollins   .290/.344/.499 in 750 PAs, 25 HR, 52.4 VORP
LF Pat Burrell         .263/.395/.498 in 575 PAs, 28 HR, 32.0 VORP
CF Shane Victorino .285/.349/.439 in 510 PAs, 11 HR, 27.4 VORP (*19.4 for same numbers in RF)
RF Jayson Werth    .272/.380/.438 in 600 PAs, 17 HR, 24.2 VORP

C  Chris Coste         .278/.313/.432 in 252 PAs, 9 HR, 8.7 VORP
3B Wes Helms         .268/.323/.431 in 300 PAs,  7 HR,  5.0 VORP
CF Michael Bourn   .273/.357/.398 in 200 PAs, 2 HR, 2.6 VORP

If resigned,
CF Aaron Rowand   .290/.349/.473 in 650 PAs, 21 HR, 33.7 VORP (but dropping Victorino's VORP by 8 in switching him to RF)

PITCHERS

STARTERS
Cole Hamels  195.0 IP, 3.55 ERA, 2.1/8.3/1.20 BB,K,HR/9, 50.6 VORP
Jamie Moyer  190.3 IP, 5.06 ERA, 2.6/5.0/1.56 BB,K,HR/9, 12.9 VORP
Adam Eaton   137.3 IP, 5.70 ERA, 3.6/5.8/1.57 BB,K,HR/9, -0.6 VORP
Kyle Kendrick 180.7 IP, 4.08 ERA, 2.2/4.1/1.20 BB,K,HR/9, 24.1 VORP

RELIEVERS
Brett Myers    81.3 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.1/10.2/0.89 BB,K,HR/9, 23.2 VORP (*revised, explained below)
Ryan Madson 82.0 IP, 4.39 ERA,  3.4/7.2/1.10  BB,K,HR/9, 11.7 VORP
Geoff Geary   75.0 IP, 4.56 ERA,  2.9/5.6/1.08 BB,K,HR/9,   8.0 VORP
Tom Gordon  50.3 IP, 4.11 ERA,  3.4/6.8/1.25 BB,K,HR/9,   8.6 VORP
Clay Conrey  60.0 IP, 4.35 ERA,  3.0/5.1/1.05 BB,K,HR/9,   9.0 VORP
JC Romero    54.7 IP, 3.95 ERA,  5.9/6.6/0.82 BB,K,HR/9,  11.4 VORP

All in all, assuming we do not resign Rowand and go with Victorino/Werth as CF/RF, and Bourn as the 4th outfielder, resign Romero as the LOOGY, this is not a shabby team to start with.  My guess at the expenses of signing the 21 people above (and Barajas' buyout and Thome's owed money) would be about 81.6MM.  Filling the other four spots with filler players of 0 VORP would give about 83.2MM and would yield about 901 runs scored and about 817 runs against, good for a record of 89-73.  Naturally, I worry that Gillick is poor at finding even players with 0 VORP, but this is a good starting point.

I have tried to see where I'm being irrationally optimistic.  Usually, you would expect some regression to the mean-- but in fact, my projections are coming out the opposite.  Why is this?  If I'm very high on certain people, let me know.  I'll post some of the main assumptions now for each of the projections that I did, and please give me feedback on these.  In general, I think a number of stars on the team are young with potential for improvement and players like Howard and Ruiz played slightly below their previous performance levels, while career year's like Rollins' came only as a result of a few skills re-emerging at the same time.  The hitting also had a more EQR (917) this year than it did actual runs scored (892), indicating that a similar batting line would generally result in more runs.  The pitching still looks pretty bad, but the only person who could even regress backwards to the mean was only Hamels--only 23 this year.  The rest of the pitchers were far below their career averages, and probably can be expected to improve.  In detail, I'll summarize each player's projection and my logic behind them.

CARLOS RUIZ: Effectively, I'm predicting a modest spike in slugging percentage.  Looking through his minor league numbers, it seems that 6 HRs was a bit lower than you would expect-- in fact, I had projected 20 HR going into this season.  What seems to be true throughout his minor league career is that he tends to improve his second year at every level.  His .505 slugging percentage in AAA was good for an EqSLG of .491 according to Baseball Prospectus, and indicates to me that he has a reasonable shot of slugging a few more extra-base hits this year.

2006 Actual:       .261/.316/.435 in majors, .307/.378/.505 in minors
2007 Projection: .266/.333/.445
2007 Actual:       .259/.340/.396
2008 Projection: .265/.331/.423

RYAN HOWARD: Effectively, I'm predicting similar OBP and SLG with an increase in batting average.  His K/AB% jumped from 32.1% and 31.2% in 05/06 to 37.6% in 07.  I'm predicting a slight 'regression' to the mean of 35.2%.  His BABIP also dropped from .358/.363 in 05/06 to .336 in 07.  Some of that is perhaps due to The Shift, but I expect a bit of a boost back to his major league-- and minor league-- career tendencies of line drives and gappers, and giving him a BABIP of .345.  His BB rate may drop a little-- he's chasing more pitches out of the zone, and his HR/FB may settle close to where it is (I'm saying 33%), which might let his OBP and SLG remain the same, while he slingshots a few more singles through The Shift.  Howard is one of the primary reasons why I don't expect the Phillies run projection to regress this year--he should see a spike in production.

2006 Actual:        .316/.425/.659
2007 Projection:  .309/.416/.618
2007 Actual:        .268/.392/.584
2008 Projection:  .281/.394/.587

CHASE UTLEY: I clearly underestimated Utley going into this season.  I thought his BABIP of .346 was too high for a guy who hit 19.5% line-drives, but in fact, his BABIP jumped to .368.  While I expect him to drop to him .348 this year, I also expect his homeruns to creep up a little bit.  He hit 8 more doubles this year than last, 1 more triple, and 10 fewer homeruns.  I'm expecting a few more homeruns and a few less doubles.  Still recording a top-notch season, I do not quite expect him to re-contend for a batting title.  He should get a SLG boost from a few more fly balls landing on the other side of the wall, at least.

2006 Actual:       .309/.379/.527
2007 Projection:  .290/.362/.511
2007 Actual:       .332/.410/.566
2008 Projection:  .311/.385/.552

GREG DOBBS: I would never have guessed Dobbs would be more than a replacement level player this year, but he certainly showed a good deal of power, if not a propensity to hack.  I don't expect him to repeat his power-- extra base hits in 10.5% of his at-bats seems a bit high given his minor league numbers were lower, but close to 9% seems possible as long as he is sheltered from lefties.

2006 Actual:     .370/.393/.556 in majors (28 PA), .314/.375/.451 in minors
2007 Projection: (none)
2007 Actual:      .272/.330/.451
2008 Projection: .273/.329/.433

JIMMY ROLLINS: I think the batting average is up around .290 and is going to stay.  His lower than usual BABIP in 2006 explained his relatively low .277 that year, and I correctly predicted his BABIP would spike back up to average, while expecting a drop-off in power.  Well--his power has hung around, as he pitches/PA jumped from 3.70 to 3.83 this year and his flyball rate skied from 36.9 to 44.7%.  I expect a flyball rate somewhere in between those, but his HR/Flyball should stay around 10-11% again, especially in CBP.  As a result, while his ISO might go back to something closer to .200 this year (it was .235 in 2007), he still should be able to put up a slugging percentage near .500.

2006 Actual:       .277/.334/.478
2007 Projection:  .291/.343/.442
2007 Actual:        .292/.341/.524
2008 Projection:  .290/.344/.499

PAT BURRELL: For all The Bat's inconsistency, his yearlong numbers are surprisingly predictable.  As with many T.T.O. (three true outcomes) hitters, Burrell's numbers just won't vary that much.  At 31 years old, I might have expected a little bit of a drop-off from Burrell, but I'm actually not quite sure where.  His walk rate climbed by nearly two points since 2006 and over four points since 2005, while his strikeout rate dropped thee points--an indication of a better batting eye and better bat control.  His flyball rate even went up this year, despite a slight drop in BABIP.  I could see those two numbers returning close to their pre-2007 levels, but the strikeout to walk ratio might not get all the way back up.  As a result, despite a slight drop in ISO, I expect Burrell to post another solid season--full of inconsistency--yet ending up where he started.

2006 Actual:       .258/.388/.502
2007 Projection: .256/.381/.492
2007 Actual:       .256/.402/.502
2008 Projection: .259/.392/.491

SHANE VICTORINO: Victorino seems to have found a plateau at a pretty stable level of hitting production, and I'm not projection much difference.  While I do think he should keep his steals up (I'm saying 35 in 40 tries this year), three triples seems a little low this year for a guy with his speed, and I expect he will double that this year and increase his slugging percentage by a few points.  He still is young, and perhaps he may see a spike in power too.

2006 Actual:        .287/.346/.414
2007 Projection:  .281/.342/.424
2007 Actual:        .281/.345/.423
2008 Projection:  .285/.349/.439

JAYSON WERTH: Health is the key for Jayson Werth.  If he can put together 600 PA's, he's going to be a valuable commodity--and he may be a steal.  With just 4 years of service time, he probably will only cost between one and two million.  He's not a .300 hitter, and there's no reason to expect that again.  He struck out in 29% of his at-bats this year, but he still walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances.  He should maintain numbers similar to those, while his BABIP of .391 should plummet at least 40 points or so.  If he can keep that up--and keep his extra-base hits coming at about 9% of his at-bats as he has the past few seasons, he should put up a solid season.

2006 Actual:         .234/.338/.374
2007 Projection:   .245/.335/.445
2007 Actual:         .298/.404/.459
2008 Projection:   .272/.380/.438

CHRIS COSTE: His minor league numbers seem to belie his major league results--or vice versa.  It's tough to tell.  I'll hedge and project a decent batting average, a low walk rate, and a few extra-base hits every now and then.

2006 Actual:         .328/.376/.505 in majors, .177/.236/.272 in AAA
2007 Projection:   .275/.322/.414
2007 Actual:         .279/.306/.419 in majors, .287/.319/.472 AA, .233/.317/.289 AAA.
2008 Projection:   .278/.313/.432

MICHAEL BOURN: Bourn will be 25 in 2008, and the big question is whether he can hit the ball with any power.  He's going to strike out--his minor league numbers indicate he will do so in around 20% of his at-bats.  While he only struck out 21 times in 119 at-bats this year, he probably will increase that rate a little.  At the same time, his speed and groundball rates should be good for a solid .330 BABIP, and that should keep his average up around .270 even if he cannot start hitting homeruns.  His walk rate should keep his value up too, and I think 11% seems like a reasonable rate.  With a little gap power, he could be a starter, but he remains a difficult projection.

2006 Actual:       .125/.182/.125 in majors, .283/.368/.428 AAA, .274/.350/.365 AA.
2007 Projection:  .265/.344/.353
2007 Actual:        .277/.348/.378
2008 Projection:  .277/.353/.388

WES HELMS: Regression past the mean was the name of the game in 2007 for Helms, and progression back to the mean seems believable for 2008.  He clearly can get extra-base hits in more than 8.6% of his at-bats like he did in 2007.  I'm guessing around 10% of them.  His walk rate fell off this year too, and I'm projecting a slight bump back this year.  All in all, as much as I want Wes Helms gone, he probably will be used a little bit more strategically this year (against lefties, please!), and that should help his numbers look a little more acceptable.

2006 Actual:        .324/.390/.575
2007 Projection:  .288/.374/.497
2007 Actual:        .246/.297/.368
2008 Projection:  .268/.323/.431

PITCHERS:

COLE HAMELS: Hamels' ERA dropped this year because his walk rate dropped.  In fact, his walk rate in 2007 was more in line with his minor league numbers, and so I'm guessing he repeats his walk rate.  His homerun rate is probably going to vary from year to year, but this year is probably a pretty good approximation of what to expect on average.  His flyball rate was about average this year, and so I don't expect that to change much.  Homeruns on 1 out of every 8 flyballs or so is about what to expect from a pitcher who plays half his games at CBP.  I am somewhat unsure about his strikeout rate.  It dropped a little bit this year--he struck out 26.5% of batters he faced in 2006 and just 23.8% of them in 2007.  Some of his high strikeout rate in 2006 could be a result of batters taking pitches in deep in counts, which was not as much of a problem this year, but on the other hand, some of Hamels' lower strikeout rate is a result of a few low strikeout games in August before he left with injury.  So maybe his strikeout rate will go up.  On the other hand, he's bound to regress a little bit just because he struck out so many more people than average this year, and yet, he may actually improve as he gets older.  I stuck with pretty much the same rate for 2008 with a bit of regression, and so a repeat performance of 2007 seems reasonable.

2006 Actual:       4.08 ERA, 3.3/9.9/1.29 BB,K,HR/9 in 132.3 IP.
2007 Projection: 3.89 ERA, 3.1/9.0/1.23 BB,K,HR/9 in 185.0 IP.
2007 Actual:       3.39 ERA, 2.1/8.7/1.23 BB,K,HR/9 in 183.3 IP.
2007 Projection: 3.55 ERA, 2.1/8.3/1.29 BB,K,HR/9 in 195.0 IP.

JAMIE MOYER: "He's older than he's ever been, and now he's even older".  He struck out a few more people than usual this year, but walked a few more as well.  I'm guessing that was mostly the result of playing a whole season in the national league.  Otherwise, his numbers look very similar to last year.  I'm guessing that he misses a few less bats as his skills deteroriate more and as a result, a few more flyballs, and a few more homeruns.  I'm still expecting him to eat a few more innings, but I'm just expecting those eaten innings to bite.

2006 Actual:       4.30 ERA, 2.2/4.6/1.40 BB,K,HR/9 in 211.3 IP.
2007 Projection: 4.86 ERA, 2.5/4.5/1.48 BB,K,HR/9 in 185.0 IP
2007 Actual:       5.01 ERA, 3.0/5.7/1.36 BB,K,HR/9 in 199.3 IP.
2008 Projection: 5.06 ERA, 2.6/5.0/1.56 BB,K,HR/9 in 190.3 IP.

ADAM EATON: There are two optimistic aspects to my 2008 projection for Adam Eaton.  The first is that he has never pitched as badly as he did in 2007 and it's unlikely that he would repeat such an atrocious performance, and the second is that in case he does, it's unlikely he can stay healthy for 30 starts again.  Every aspect of his performance seemed to show a decline in 2007.  He threw fewer strikes--2.5% fewer than last year; he gave up more flyballs--3.7% more than last year.  He struck out only 13.2% of hitters--down from 14.8% in 2006 and 17.6% in 2005.  He walked more hitters--9.7% of them, and he only walked 8.2% in 2006 and 7.8% in 2005.  All in all, he cannot stay this bad.  He should end up somewhere between where he has been and where he was this year.  The result still is terrible, but not as terrible.

2006 Actual:       5.12 ERA, 3.3/6.0/1.52 BB,K,HR/9 in  65.0 IP.
2007 Projection: 4.80 ERA, 3.3/6.3/1.30 BB,K,HR/9 in 110.0 IP.
2007 Actual:       6.29 ERA, 4.0/5.4/1.67 BB,K,HR/9 in 161.7 IP.
2008 Projection: 5.70 ERA, 3.6/5.8/1.57 BB,K,HR/9 in 137.3 IP.

KYLE KENDRICK: Kyle's inability to strike people out did not hinder his ability to prevent runs this season.  The key was that he kept the ball on the ground--48.6% of balls in play were grounders, and that led a lot of double plays and not too many extra base hits.  He also kept his walk rate down to 1.86 per nine innings.  This is lower than any of his minor league strikeout rates, so I'm projected a bit of a spike in his walk rate.  His BABIP surrendered was .285, which seems low for a groundball pitcher in CBP without a superior defensive unit behind him, so I'm guessing that jumps to .295.  The other key to Kendrick's low ERA was that his LOB% (as measured on fangraphs.com) was 76.9%.  That seems very high for a non-strikeout pitcher, and so I'm guessing that falls back to 72%-- still good, primarily due to his decent double play potential wiping out baserunners.  All in all, I think he can be a league average starter, primarily through a low walk rate and an above average groundball rate.  His success is going to rely strongly on those two facts.  I'm projecting a 48% groundball rate and 2.2 BB/9, and a slight boost in K's.

2006 Actual:      2.15 ERA, 3.0/10.6/0.00 BB,K,HR/9 in 46.0 IP in A,
            & 3.53 ERA, 2.6/5.5/1.04 BB,K,HR/9 in 130.0 IP in A+
2007 Projection: (none)
2007 Actual:      3.21 ERA, 2.0/5.5/0.33 BB,K,HR/9 in 81.3 IP in AA
        & 3.87 ERA, 1.9/3.6/1.19 BB,K,HR/9 in 121.0 IP in majors
2008 Projection: 4.48 ERA, 2.2/4.1/1.20 BB,K,HR/9 in 180.7 IP

BRETT MYERS:  I'm going to go ahead and assume he's a reliever, though I do have an idea of what my projection would be of him as a starter.  His groundball rate remained the same this year at about 46%, and I'm not guessing that changes.  There were two keys to Myers' success as a reliever this year.  One is that he gave up only 4 homeruns in 53.3 IP--a rate that seems unlikely to maintain given his unchanging groundball rate.  The other is his high strikeout rate--28.7% of hitters, up from 23.0 and 22.7% as a starter in 2005 and 2006.  Myers actually struck out 27.1% of the 70 hitters he faced as a starter in his three starts in 2007, and was second in the league in strikeouts during the second half of 2006.  Chances are that he has improved his ability to strikeout hitters, and so I'm guessing he maintains a strikeout rate around 27% this year, and as a result can keep his ERA down in the lower 3's as a result.  Naturally, with only 81 innings, that's only going to take him so far. *NOTE: I have revised Myers' projection a little bit. His Groundball rate as a reliever was actually 52.9%, a difference statistically significant enough to justify revising his HR numbers and hence his IP and ERA.

2006 Actual:       3.91 ERA, 2.9/8.6/1.32 BB,K,HR/9 in 198.0 IP
2007 Projection: 3.85 ERA, 2.8/8.4/1.28 BB,K,HR/9 in 215.0 IP
2007 Actual:       4.33 ERA, 3.5/10.9/1.18 BB,K,HR/9 in 68.7 IP
2008 Projection: 3.21 ERA, 3.1/10.2/0.89 BB,K,HR/9 in 81.3 IP

RYAN MADSON: Madson is impossible to project.  I expected great things out of him in 2006, nothing out of him in 2007, and received the opposite both years.  His BABIP seems to be very volatile--it went from .364 in 2006 to .269 in 2007.  His groundball rate may have played a role in that--it was 47.3% in 2007 and only 42.8% in 2006.  His 47.8% in 2005 indicates that perhaps his solid groundball rate is a function of being a reliever, so I'm guessing he stays close to that in 2008.  With his BABIP seemingly all over the place, I'm guessing it's largely random, and going with a guess of .305.  His K rate rebounded a bit this year after a slight drop as a starter, but his walk rate did jump.  That may go back down a little, but he should come out somewhere near the middle.

2006 Actual:       5.69 ERA, 3.4/6.6/1.34 BB,K,HR/9 in 134.3 IP
2007 Projection: 4.70 ERA, 3.0/6.8/1.20 BB,K,HR/9 in 88.0 IP
2007 Actual:       3.05 ERA, 3.7/6.9/0.80 BB,K,HR/9 in 56.0 IP
2008 Projection: 4.39 ERA, 3.4/7.2/1.10 BB,K,HR/9 in 82.0 IP

GEOFF GEARY: Geary threw 66.5% of his pitches for strikes in 2006 and only 60.3% of his pitches for strikes in 2007.  That pretty much told the story.  His ERA was a deceptively low 4.41 in 2007, but his run average was way up at 5.88.  His 11 unearned runs were a result of a lot of hard-hit balls in play; after all, it's tough to give up unearned runs on a strikeout.  This year, he got behind in the count, walked more batters, and many of them scored.  His groundball rate stayed close to 50%, and it's reasonable to expect that again.  He has trouble missing bats, and so he will still give up his share of homeruns, too, even with the low groundball rate.  I expect a little rebound in his walks and strikeouts, and ending up with an ERA of 4.56.

2006 Actual:       2.96 ERA, 2.0/5.9/0.59 BB,K,HR/9 in 91.3 IP
2007 Projection: 3.73 ERA, 2.6/6.1/0.85 BB,K,HR/9 in 82.0 IP
2007 Actual:       4.41 ERA, 3.3/5.1/1.07 BB,K,HR/9 in 67.3 IP
2008 Projection: 4.56 ERA, 2.9/5.6/1.08 BB,K,HR/9 in 75.0 IP

TOM GORDON: Gordon seemed to fall apart this year, but in reality, his numbers are not actually all that surprising.  His K rate had been declining for a few years before it spiked in 2006.  His 7.2 K/9 in 2007 was similar to his 7.7 K/9 in 2006.  His homerun rate was very high this year, but only as a result of 16.3% of his flyballs being homeruns--a skill which is usually not persistent, and so I leave it at 12.5% as it tends to be for pitchers who spend half their time in CBP.  Gordon's groundball rate was 49% this year, splitting the difference between his 53% in 2005 and 45% in 2006.  I'm guessing he ends up around 48% in 2008, while keeping his innings total low, and maintaining a strikeout rate a hair below his 2007 numbers.  As a result, I'm guessing his ERA will land around 4.  That would change if his K rate declines further.  Since Gordon was used as a ROOGY in a number of situations this year, I'm guessing that it does not.

2006 Actual:      3.34 ERA, 3.3/10.3/1.37 BB,K,HR/9 in 59.3 IP
2007 Projection: 3.48 ERA, 3.3/8.5/1.30 BB,K,HR/9 in 62.0 IP
2007 Actual:       4.73 ERA, 2.9/7.2/1.58 BB,K,HR/9 in 40.0 IP
2008 Projection: 4.11 ERA, 3.4/6.8/1.25 BB,K,HR/9 in 50.3 IP

CLAY CONDREY: Condrey's numbers says average while his transaction record screams fringe--he was sent to back and forth across the Canadian border throughout 2007.  His K rate as always remained low--around 4.9.  I expect something similar to that in 2008.  His control remained pretty good, though he did only 61.4% of his pitches for strikes and walked 2.9 per nine innings.  However, another solid groundball rate of 46.4% to follow his 47.9% rate in 2006 indicates he should keep enough balls out of the bleachers.  I'm guessing his numbers look pretty average again, perhaps with a low strikeout rate.

2006 Actual:       4.39 ERA, 2.8/5.0/0.94 BB,K,HR/9 in 28.7 IP in the majors
               & 3.24 ERA, 2.6/4.9/0.18 BB,K,HR/9 in 51.3 IP in AAA
2007 Projection: 4.35 ERA, 2.8/4.6/0.95 BB,K,HR/9 in 60.0 IP
2007 Actual:       5.04 ERA, 2.9/4.9/0.72 BB,K,HR/9 in 50.0 IP in the majors
                & 2.45 ERA, 2.0/4.1/0.00 BB,K,HR/9 in 19.0 IP in AAA
2008 Projection: 4.35 ERA, 3.0/5.1/1.05 BB,K,HR/9 in 60.0 IP

JC ROMERO: You would have wondered what exactly J.C. stood for if you looked at Romero's ERA in 2007, but if you looked any of his other numbers, you would bet that might just go up in 2008.  After all, he walked 16.9% of batters he faced, while striking out 17.7% of them.  His BABIP hid his true skill level-- .243 (during the regular season of course)--it was a result of a lot of groundballs going at infielders instead of between them.  Still, his groundball rate was 60% this year, only a few points higher than it had been in 2006 and 2007.  I do expect a 57% groundball rate from him this year, and as a result, only about 0.82 HR/9.  He should also keep his ERA down if he continued to be used as a LOOGY--entering games with one or two outs, rather than starting innings, might keep his LOB% up.  It was 89.8% in 2007.  I say he could stick with 76% in 2008, and that might be good for an ERA around 3.95.

2006 Actual:       6.70 ERA, 6.2/7.6/0.56 BB,K,HR/9 in 48.3 IP
2007 Projection: (none)
2007 Actual:       1.92 ERA, 6.4/6.7/0.48 BB,K,HR/9 in 56.3 IP
2008 Projection:  3.95 ERA, 6.0/6.6/0.82 BB,K,HR/9 in 54.7 IP