Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

by dajafi on Nov 20, 2007 5:21 PM EST in News Comment 27 comments

I'm a little hesitant to bump Jimmy Rollins from the top spot on the site so quickly, but this strikes me as potentially significant:

The Phillies today acquired outfielder Chris Snelling from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for cash.

Snelling, 25, hit a combined .246 with one home run and seven RBIs in 30 games with the Washington Nationals and Oakland A's this season. He missed the majority of the year with a bruised left knee. A lefthanded hitter, Snelling has hit .311 in his minor-league career.

"Chris has always had a great bat, but he has battled some injuries in the past," assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said in a statement. "We feel he will be healthy this coming year and adds a lefthanded hitter and some depth to our outfield."

Snelling's another guy Pat Gillick must have known from his Mariners days, but his minor-league track record shows there's more than just familiarity at work here. Snelling has displayed both power and patience through his pro career, highlighted by a .370/.452/.553 line with triple-A Tacoma as a 23 year-old in 2005. The problem, as Amaro's quote suggests, is that Snelling has never stayed healthy enough to show if he can do this at the big-league level; for that matter, he hasn't had more than 400 at-bats in a season since A ball in 2001.

Still, this is a low-risk, low-cost, potentially high-reward pickup, teaming an obviously talented hitter with great instructors in Manuel and Thompson, in a lineup where he'll have minimal pressure to be The Guy. If it all goes right, your platoon partner for Jayson Werth could be in the house.

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Thumbs up

I like it! Doesn't seem to have a ton of power, but that's okay.

by taco pal on Nov 20, 2007 5:31 PM EST reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

if Snelling is getting thrown into the mix for the 25th roster spot, it's a perfectly reasonable move.

but if this is Gillick's answer to the fourth outfielder question, it's a travesty.

by perfectdepth on Nov 20, 2007 5:38 PM EST reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Agreed.

by David S. Cohen on Nov 20, 2007 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Why, what better options are out there? Snelling is a fine pickup and will help this team if he is healthy. If he isn't, then it just cost us a few dollars.

by jonk on Nov 20, 2007 10:17 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

as I said, I have no problem with taking a shot on Snelling and letting him compete for the last OF/25-man spot. if he's healthy, and if he finally delivers on his promise, it's a great value pickup. I look forward to seeing what he can do in spring training.

but--and this is obviously very hypothetical at this point--if you don't make any more moves, it's utterly crazy to count on Snelling for the what, 300+ PA? he'd get as the lefty half of an outfield platoon. if you're a second division team (like, say, the Nationals?), maybe that's fine. but a team that's expecting to contend for the NL pennant should not be handing out major roles to guys like Snelling.

by perfectdepth on Nov 20, 2007 11:08 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Was he signed as the lefty half of an outfield platoon?

A) Do we know that they are going to platoon Werth?

B) Do we know that they are going to use Snelling over Dobbs?

by jonk on Nov 20, 2007 11:44 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

well, as I said (for I think the third time now) I'm speaking in the hypothetical.

but to answer your two other questions:

A) Werth's severe splits (~300 points last year) mean he needs a platoon partner. reports suggest that they're looking for one, but it's possible that they could give Werth a full-time job. I think that's a very bad idea, even before you considering the injury risk.

B) Dobbs can't platoon in the outfield since Gillick &c actually have said that he's platooning at third. barring another acquisition, of course.

by perfectdepth on Nov 20, 2007 11:53 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Injury prone player with good secondary skills. He sounds like the 2008 version of Jayson Werth.

Fine as a 5th OF, but is this really the best we can do? I'll say it again, we're not a small market team, we just behave like one.

by FTN414 on Nov 20, 2007 5:56 PM EST reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Yeah, we wouldn't want to repeat the terrible mistake we made with Werth. Every day last season, I found myself wishing we had shelled out the bucks for a more up-market FA outfielder like Gary Matthews, Tort Nixon, or David Dellucci.

The Phillies' budget size is certainly not immune from criticism on its own merits, but that's a separate question. Being small-market, big-market, or middle-market is basically irrelevant to the wisdom of any one particular move. If a guy is priced below his true value, then you should try to bring him in, period. If he's priced above his true value, then you shouldn't. Those rules apply equally for everyone. The Red Sox have made moves like this.

by taco pal on Nov 20, 2007 6:28 PM EST reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Exactly. If this is "it" as far as an OF pickup goes, I'll be disappointed; if this is a guy who's set to compete with (say) Coste, Bruntlett, Roberson, and even Dobbs for the last spot or two on the bench, I'm really into it.

Too soon to tell, but I tend to believe it's the latter just because Snelling is so injury-prone that no team with any pretensions of being taken seriously would ever count on him.

by dajafi on Nov 20, 2007 7:33 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Definitely, he can't be counted on. Snelling clearly isn't enough by himself.

That being said, I'd rather have the fourth outfielder spot be filled by a second Snelling type rather than some 2007 Trot Nixon equivalent like Reggie Sanders or Darin Erstad (or for that matter, Trot Nixon). One Snelling is too risky, but two Snellings hedges the risk. The right approach to part-time outfielders shouldn't be any different than the right approach to middle relievers - bring in a bunch of low-cost risks and somebody will pan out. The middle-market vets are usually a waste of money. There are exceptions, of course.

by taco pal on Nov 21, 2007 12:24 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

This guy was just released and might be worth a look.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/john-ford-griffin.shtml

by taco pal on Nov 21, 2007 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Just noticed something looking at this guy's stats. It looks like Cube includes college stats in milb totals. This REALLY skews his numbers

Time for a regime change.

by DiamondDerby on Nov 21, 2007 10:21 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

"Injury prone" strikes me as a label more likely to be a false positive than ideas people on this blog regularly bash like momentum and leadership. Is there any data to suggest that one or more prior injuries is predictive of future, unrelated injuries?

by Everybody Hits on Nov 21, 2007 10:35 AM EST reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Will Carroll frequently writes that "staying healthy is a skill." I don't know whether or not he's quantified this or not, but I credit it. If you had to make a bet on whether J.D. Drew or Andruw Jones would play more games next year, knowing nothing except the games-played info on the pages I've linked here, which way would you bet?

by dajafi on Nov 21, 2007 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

I think it probably depends on what kind of injuries we're talking about.

Also, I don't know that this is quantifiable. It would probably make more sense to ask a doctor than to try and count injury stats. Are there any doctors on this blog?

by taco pal on Nov 21, 2007 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

It would floor me if this weren't true. It seems that certain players just hurt themselves (especially pitchers). There are several reasons I would suspect this to be true.

Pitchers compensating for injuries by stressing other muscles (shoulder injuries after elbow injuries)
Re-injuries (e.g. Werth's wrist)
Being out of shape (if Howard shows up overweight again, we will probably have good reason to worry about injury)
Mechanical flaws in general-- especially for pitchers. You don't need to be a scout or a doctor to look at Vicente Padilla and worry he's pitching uncomfortably.
Recklessness (e.g. Aaron Rowand)

There's a million reasons.

by Matt Swartz on Nov 21, 2007 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Matt's list of reasons for injuries is a pretty goodstart on why certain guys get injured. There have always been players who just got hurt all the time. Pistol Pete Reiser was one of the more talented and famous guys like that. The Phils had the late Ron Jones who tore up his knees every year. Bob Horner was like that -- he was hurt every year it seems. Kal Daniels. Who else? Lots of guys we don't remember or we never heard of I'd guess.

I think staying healthy is a skill. There have been too many guys around whose careers have been derailed by numerous injuries. I don't think it's just bad luck all of the time.

Sometimes an injury prone guy does snap out of it and stops getting hurt. Snelling can really hit. He always has. If he can stay healthy for a full season he is probably better than any extra outfielder the Phils could possibly get. But that is one big if.

by smitty on Nov 21, 2007 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

This makes sense. Obviously, you can't tell before the fact whether Guy X Who Gets Hurt All The Time has one of the traits Matt mentioned or whether he's just been unlucky. But that's true of any predictive characteristic, including the statistical ones.

Eric Davis was another one of those injury prone guys. Paul Molitor was an example of someone who suddenly stopped being injury-prone late in his career, although that happened after he started DH-ing.

by taco pal on Nov 21, 2007 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

but...but there's no fancy metric one can plug into a spreadsheet to calculate injury-ness, therefore it must not exist!!

Like others have already said, this looks like a good move so long as he doesn't get too much playing time, but of course if he does then it means either: 1) the team didn't bring back Rowand or 2) one of Burrell/Victorino is injured, both of which may hurt the offense too much to recover from.

Anybody know what kind of defense Snelling would add?

by das411 on Nov 22, 2007 12:56 AM EST reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

"but...but there's no fancy metric one can plug into a spreadsheet to calculate injury-ness, therefore it must not exist!!"

Look man, you look like an idiot when you make comments like this. Most people here and that read this blog either understand the concepts we talk about or at least are open to them. Nobody reads your "mocking" posts and thinks, "WOW, HE SURE GOT THEM!" It is likely the opposite.

So, if you want to show us the error of our ways, try disproving these "stats" you hate or at least show us why they should not be valued instead of making completely stupid remarks like above. There are already too many idiots out there, do let yourself continue to be one.

by jonk on Nov 22, 2007 8:09 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Isn't Will Carroll using a spreadsheet formula to approximate chance of injury on Baseball Prospectus? It's proprietary, but he's using it.

Do you not think that approximating the probability of injury as precisely as possible is important for a business? What do you think actuaries do?

by Matt Swartz on Nov 22, 2007 10:07 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Carroll also does those green light, yellow light, red light things in regards to injury concerns of players at the beginning of every season. They are pretty interesting.

by smitty on Nov 23, 2007 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

UTK

Anyone else notice that a different author wrote the most recent UTK column on BPro? I haven't heard anything, but it makes me wonder if they are replacing Carroll.

by ken on Nov 24, 2007 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

"He missed the majority of the year with a bruised left knee."

Good grief! I'm not sure if I'm supposed to be disgusted by that or be happy that his annual injuries seem to be getting less severe.

Straight cash purchase, right? So, he qualifies as "free talent". As such, there's almost no downside to the deal and there's a lot of possible upside if he manages to stay healthy. As I recall, he's shown more offensive potential in the Seattle system than Dobbs did. Bottom line, Gillick'd be silly if he passed this one up. Even if he ends up starting the year at Allentown, just shoving Roberson down another notch on the corner OF depth chart is a plus.

Nobody answered DAS' question about his defense. I'd like to know if he can handle right field, myself, but all I'm finding so far are comments on his offensive potential and his injuries, with an emphasis on the latter. LOTS of injuries. Inconsistent defensive ratings from BP. Guess I'll have to keep digging. Seattle was using him in right as well as left, so maybe his arm isn't too bad?

by Dalton Bouchee on Nov 24, 2007 10:48 PM EST reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

He was a fine defensive outfielder before all of his injuries. He might still be. I followed his career pretty closely up to a few surguries ago. Back then he was really good. We'll see if he's lost any speed or defensive ability.

by smitty on Nov 26, 2007 8:10 PM EST reply actions

Re: Shhh! Phillies acquire OF Chris Snelling

Smitty,

Thanks. All I've found in the last three days was from McKamey in 2006, "Limited to LF". No explanation as to why they though so. Which, was BEFORE a 2006 shoulder injury, but then again, I couldn't find whether that was to his throwing arm or not. At least five surgeries before 2005. Most of his injuries have been to the knees.

A guess would be that he's probably OK in left; who knows about right; and if he can't get himself out of the dugout, it doesn't really matter. <g> We'll find out in the spring, I suppose.

by Dalton Bouchee on Nov 27, 2007 4:25 PM EST reply actions