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Naptime in Nashville

The Tigers got Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The Dodgers got Andruw Jones. The Phillies got someone or something called Lincoln Holdzkum.

It's a bit of a downer when the addition of two longshot Rule 5 pitchers--Holdzkum, a former Boston farmhand who might challenge for a bullpen spot, and Travis Blackley, a onetime Mariners (surprise!) prospect--constitutes the biggest Phillies news from the Winter Meetings, which conclude today. At the same time, it's possible that the groundwork was laid this week for a couple moves of note later this winter. The Dodgers' signing of Jones--for two years and $36 million--might increase the odds of Aaron Rowand returning to the Phils, and another former Phillie also has expressed interest in coming back.

Star-divide



That guy is Carlos Silva, the groundball-throwing right-hander traded to Minnesota in the Eric Milton deal four years ago. Scott Lauber reports that Silva's agents have reached out to Pat Gillick and associates about a return engagement:

Carlos Silva wants to pitch for the Phillies -- again.

At least that's what Silva's agents, Barry Praver and Scott Shapiro, are telling people around here. But Silva, one of only three free-agent pitchers (Tom Glavine and Andy Pettitte were the others) to win at least 13 games last season, wants a four- or five-year contract. And, as we know, Phillies GM Pat Gillick is opposed to such long-term deals for pitchers. So, whatever interest Silva's people have shown toward the Phillies this week hasn't been reciprocated. Again, that's according to Praver and Shapiro.

Now, you could argue Silva isn't worth a four-year, $48 million contract. He's 55-46 with a 4.31 ERA in six seasons with the Phillies and Twins, and he's never won more than 14 games (in 2004). Over the past two seasons, he's 24-29 with a 5.01 ERA. And when assistant GM Mike Arbuckle said yesterday, "We don't want to pay for a Cadillac when we're getting a Ford Focus," free agents like Silva popped into my mind.

But, given this market for pitching, it's hard to see Silva's price coming down. So, as the offseason chugs along, the Phillies may have to ask themselves this question: How much is it worth to deepen the back of a rotation that features still-unproven Kyle Kendrick, 45-year-old Jamie Moyer and injured/ineffective Adam Eaton?

Silva probably isn't worth the deal Lauber posits. At the same time, though, the team's options are shriveling. Paul Hagen points out that the demand for pitching is so intense that Glendon Rusch, a careerlong mediocrity who didn't pitch last season, is drawing interest from many teams and won't commit to anyone unless he's guaranteed a rotation spot. Another rumor is that the Phils made a big play for Baltimore ace Erik Bedard, offering Shane Victorino and Kyle Kendrick among others--and couldn't even get close.

With that in mind, the fact that all Silva costs is money and a draft pick--valuable as those are--is compelling. Over the last four seasons, pitching for a generally under-powered Twins lineup, Silva won 47 games and made 124 starts. At age 29 as of next April, he's out of the so-called "injury nexus," and with the exception of his gruesome 2006, he's always kept the ball in the park--a big deal for anyone pitching at OFJOAB. Silva records few strikeouts and gives up an astonishing number of hits--the risks of consistently throwing three grounders for every two flyballs--but compensates with a superb walk rate.  

Given Silva's durability and relative consistency, adding him as the #3 or #4 starter would stabilize the rotation. Projected over the next four years, his 2004-2007 performance might well be worth what he'll command in a deal. It's not a glamorous move, and certainly not without risk, but Silva might make more sense for the Phillies than anyone else now available.

Another note from Lauber: if the Padres non-tender third baseman Morgan Ensberg next week, as widely expected, the Phillies are likely to show interest. Ensberg is a little duplicative of Wes Helms, but probably has a better glove and more power potential.

Poll
Would you give a four-year deal for $45 million or so to Carlos Silva?
Yes
32 votes
No
75 votes

107 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments

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Re: Naptime in Nashville
HoldzkOm, apparently.

I like Silva. That's just a ton of money though. It's hurts my brain to think that 20% of our payroll next year could be allocated to Carlos Silva and Adam Eaton next year.

by taco pal on Dec 6, 2007 12:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
Did I mention I was talking about next year?

by taco pal on Dec 6, 2007 12:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
I hadn't thought about it that way. Ouch indeed.

by dajafi on Dec 6, 2007 1:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
This is another reason why I'd like the Phillies to take on a salary dump like Morris.  One year of overpaying to give our young guys time instead of 4 years of overpaying.  Its funny we have to pay for someone we gave up with Abraham Nunez (but the scrappy white version) years ago.  We didn't  offer Milton arbitration that year so we did not get draft picks (not sure if we'd have even received picks).

I'm curious what the Phillies outfield plans were if the Bedard trade went through.  Don't get me wrong I think he's one of the few players worth the risk.... but who was going to play center?  Pat the Bat :)?

by Homer on Dec 6, 2007 1:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
Then again, nearly thirty percent of our budget was tied up in Eaton, Garcia, and Lieber last year. So we'd be improving at least!

by taco pal on Dec 6, 2007 3:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
And two of those guys are gone. Plus Rowand is likely gone. COuld the payroll actually shrink this year?
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Dec 7, 2007 12:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
I think this is the second time Holdzkom's been drafted in the Rule 5 draft.  Maybe we can strike Victorino gold again

by Homer on Dec 6, 2007 1:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
This is ugly.  And part of it is thanks to Gillick giving Adam Eaton that outrageous contract last year.  What pitcher who can log more than 100 starting innings can possibly claim he isn't worth a multi-year contract worth more than $15M now?

by David S. Cohen on Dec 6, 2007 2:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
As co-founder of the Shane Victorino fan club and full-fledged member of the Kyle Kendrick fan club, I would be devastated if we traded these two young assets for one - albeit, a talented - pitcher.  The way I look at it: how many more games will Bedard win for us than Kendrick?  At how much more of a cost will those wins come?  And, how many games do we lose because of the loss of Victorino?  Who do we replace Victorino with?  IMO, we gain a great pitcher, but lose out on the deal.
With that in mind, I think you have to make a move for Silva (if we can't get Kuroda).  He is exactly the type of pitcher that we need in our park and is entering his prime on the upswing.  It hurts giving him that type of contract, but we can't allow the mistake (one of them) of the 06/07 offseason to compound itself into further mistakes because we're tentative.  If there are cheaper/more flexible/better options out there, obviously, let's go after them.  But I don't think we are in a position to disregard Silva...especially when he is the one contacting us!

by The Avery on Dec 6, 2007 5:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
Very very well said.

....what on earth was Ed Wade thinking trading Silva and the pre-Nunez, Nick Punto, for Milton???

by das411 on Dec 7, 2007 12:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
There's a rumor now that the Phils have "mild interest" in Mike Mussina. At $11 million owed for next year, coming off a 5.16 ERA, strikeout rate down... eh. At least it's just one year, and if the Yankees don't want a particularly good prospect for him, fine. I guess. It's tough to get excited about anyone we're connected to these days.

by dajafi on Dec 10, 2007 6:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Naptime in Nashville
    Well, I could live with adding Moose along the same lines one or two of the other guys here could live with Morris...especially if the Yanks don't ask for much in return and maybe even kick in a little toward his salary.

    I think that it'd be better than signing Silva. I know that there are a few points in Silva's favor, but at those contract terms? Sometimes I think that, when the choices come down to "doing nothing" and "doing something stupid", you're better off with "nothing". At least you've still got the resources to do something smarter later. It's the Rowand thing all over again, although I suspect that Aaron would be the safer deal of the two.

     Speaking of Aaron, I think that "re-sign Rowand" would have been the answer to the question of what they would have done if the Orioles had taken Victorino in a Bedard deal.

by Dalton Bouchee on Dec 11, 2007 6:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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