Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
by WholeCamels on Feb 20, 2007 12:15 PM EST
in News
29 comments
It's Spring Training, which means it's time for our second annual Community Projection series. Here's what we do: Predict the final season stat totals for the designated players in the listed categories. Then, we'll compile them and average the amounts to see what TGP's readers, as a community, think the players will do. Then, we report back in October for bragging rights to see how you did individually.
Feel free to base your projections on anything you want... statistical projections, hunches, decreased totals due to injury, tea leaves, that pain in your knee that acts up when Chris Wheeler says "Here we go again!" Have fun.
Our first CP is for the new presumptive ace of the staff, Freddy Garcia.
GS - 34
IP - 211.2
W - 14
L - 10
ERA - 4.33
WHIP - 1.31
BB - 56
K - 143
HR - 33
I'm going out and predicting a disappointment of Millwoodian proportions; not terrible by any means, but far from the "first-real-ace-since-Schilling" pitcher that many seem to be predicting. I'm particularly nervous about the steady decline in his peripherals over the past few seasons. I see this continuing, and I see Garcia finishing the season as the rotation's third best pitcher, and I wouldn't be totally shocked if Eaton winds up doing better.
Freddy Garcia Projections must be posted by 5 pm on Friday, February 23rd to be included in the Community Projection.
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Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP : 208
W : 17
L : 9
ERA: 4.22
WHP: 1.29
BB : 60
K : 165
HR : 35
by Shore on Feb 20, 2007 12:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
I like him a little better than you do, but will admit that it might be wishful thinking on the notion that the extra month in '05 and the WBC last spring eroded his 2006 peripherals a bit.
GS - 33
IP - 209
W - 17
L - 11
ERA - 4.08
WHIP - 1.24
BB - 49
K - 149
HR - 33
by dajafi on Feb 20, 2007 12:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: IP
215.3 IP, 13 wins
I'm thinking somewhere along the lines of bad luck, so-so performance, and bullpen implosions when predicting 14 wins for Freddy.
Maybe the CP should also include an over/under on the first in-season use of the headline "Freddy's Dead" in a major Philadelphia area news publication.
I'm setting it at May 31st.
by WholeCamels on Feb 20, 2007 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's not the Philly press...
Good point about Myers--didn't he also have bad luck with run support that year? Between that and too much Cormier behind him, he might have been lucky to win 13.
by dajafi on Feb 20, 2007 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP - 210
W - 17
L - 11
ERA - 4.10
WHIP - 1.21
BB - 45
K - 145
HR - 30
by phatj on Feb 20, 2007 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP - 205
W - 16
L - 10
ERA - 4.23
WHIP - 1.30
BB - 44
K - 162
HR - 32
by fredex1 on Feb 20, 2007 1:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Freddy masters splitter, dominates in walk year
IP - 216.2
W - 17
L - 9
ERA - 3.96
WHIP - 1.20
BB - 44
K - 147
HR - 30
by Chris R on Feb 20, 2007 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP- 221
W- 18
L- 7
ERA- 3.98
WHIP- 1.27
BB- 68
K- 151
HR- Zero, you guys predicting a pitcher to hit 30 homeruns is ridiculous...j/k, he'll allow 29.
by Carson on Feb 20, 2007 4:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP- 215
W- 16
L- 9
ERA- 4.02
WHIP- 1.29
BB- 72
K- 155
HR- 31
Funny how most of us predict in the 14-17 range. It's pretty pathetic how a pitcher who wins that 'many' games can still make the NL top 10 in wins.
by The Don of DC on Feb 20, 2007 7:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP - 210
W - 16
L - 10
ERA - 4.23
WHIP - 1.28
BB - 56
K - 155
HR - 28
I think he'll be who he is in a slightly above average year for him (given it's a walk year) a one-year Philly playing for the payday.
by phillychuck on Feb 20, 2007 8:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP : 215
W : 15
L : 11
ERA: 4.05
WHP: 1.22
BB : 52
K : 155
HR : 25
by Matt Swartz on Feb 20, 2007 10:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP-201
W-16
L-8
ERA-3.98
WHIP-1.17
BB-40
K-135
HR-28
by HankA on Feb 21, 2007 11:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP : 188
W : 15
L : 7
ERA: 4.15
WHP: 1.27
BB : 62
K : 176
HR : 29
I'm sure he'll get hurt at some point and miss a few starts, though not a ton. (c'mon, this is Philly: anyone who's placed with high expectations gets hurt and/or stinks it up)
I think his K's will probably be pretty high, considering the number of high-strikeout/low-contact hitters the NL has. He'll get the run support that Myers DIDN'T get last year.
by maxr on Feb 21, 2007 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
GS : 33
IP : 199.67
W : 16
L : 10
ERA: 3.95
WHP: 1.34
BB : 53
K : 125
HR : 30
by David S. Cohen on Feb 21, 2007 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
Anyway,
GS : 32
IP : 207
W : 15
L : 11
ERA: 4.31
WHP: 1.38
BB : 60
K : 151
HR : 32
Despite his trends, strikeouts will go up a little just by virtue of the fact that he'll get to face pitchers 2-3 times every start.
by taco pal on Feb 21, 2007 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
by taco pal on Feb 21, 2007 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
by WholeCamels on Feb 21, 2007 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
by taco pal on Feb 23, 2007 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
I'll be the one to stick his neck out for the following reasons:
1 - New league - they haven't seen much of him.
2 - I'll take his word for it that the post season and the WBC hurt his velocity last year.
3 - He pitched well down the stretch.
GS : 34
IP : 217
W : 19
L : 7
ERA: 3.42
WHP: 1.18
BB : 51
K : 182
HR : 26
And he'll still only be the second best starter on the team!
by AWH on Feb 21, 2007 7:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
second best?
You're right that the projections are pretty closely bunched, but I think this is because the guy has been so consistent from one year to the next. I agree there's a shot that the league shift and the additional rest could hugely boost him, as might the prospect of playing for a Zito-esque contract next winter.
by dajafi on Feb 21, 2007 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: second best?
by AWH on Feb 21, 2007 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: second best?
You've got the three of them combining for north of 50 wins. If that's the case, it should be a pretty great summer... could happen, just never seems to work out that way for the Phils. Maybe we're due.
by dajafi on Feb 21, 2007 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
2 since 1997 when Curt went 17-11.
Randy Wolf in 2003 went 16-10 with a 4.23 ERA in 200 innings and Jon Lieber (yeah, the guy we want to toss) went 17-13 with a 4.20 ERA in 218.3 innings. Not saying it won't happen, but Garcia is our third best pitcher on this staff. If he gets 16 wins, we are in pretty darn good shape.
Factor in that he gives up quite a few homers, doesn't overwhelm you with his strikeouts, I think he'll see a few 5 -6 inning games in the CBP lowering his win total. I think 13-14 is a much more likely number.
by jonk on Feb 22, 2007 2:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
And how many 17+ game winners were there in the entire NL last season? Yup, zero.
I agree that 2006 was something of an outlier in that regard, but I see 17 wins as a very optimistic projection for Garcia (somewhere around 90th percentile).
by WholeCamels on Feb 22, 2007 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP : 215
W : 19
L : 9
ERA: 3.62
WHP: 1.19
BB : 52
K : 164
HR : 27
i'm a tad more optimistic as well. his numbers against the national league in his career have been very very good. and i think he can ride some of that 'new' to the NL thing for a while.
by Jamie on Feb 22, 2007 3:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP: 219
W: 15
L: 10
ERA: 3.93
WHP: 1.25
BB: 47
K: 152
HR: 29
by Alex Falzone on Feb 22, 2007 12:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
IP: 216
W: 16
L: 12
ERA: 4.40
WHIP: 1.32
BB: 66
K: 152
HR: 35
by fuzzycopper on Feb 22, 2007 8:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
by fuzzycopper on Feb 22, 2007 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Freddy Garcia
I'll guess:
30 games
190 innings
14 - 10
4.40 ERA
1.31WHIP
48 BB
130 K
32 HR
by allentown on Feb 25, 2007 8:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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