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A Stroll Through Spring Stats

As the Phils finish enjoying their only day off this month, it seems like a good time to take a quick look at the spring stats. Yeah, in terms of the regular season, they're meaningless more often than not, but still worth some consideration just for whatever they might tell us about trends, trade rumors and position battles.

Let's start with the hitters. It's likely that the most revealing thing about Florida numbers is just how much action guys are getting (and I don't mean in the Pat Burrell-of-yore sense). The Phillies with the most plate appearances thus far are Greg Dobbs (34 AB, 5 BB), Shane Victorino (33, 4), Aaron Rowand (31, 1), and Karim Garcia (30, 1).

Dobbs and Garcia make sense; they're fighting for a job. Both have put up good numbers, though Dobbs (.353/.439/.706) is faring better even after cooling off in the last few days. Garcia is 10 for 30 (.333), but has just 3 doubles in addition to the one walk. Given that Dobbs also can play some infield, he's probably ahead right now. Chris Coste, the putative third man in that battle, only has 17 AB, and 4 hits (2 doubles) plus a walk; to me, that looks like the line of a guy whose role is pretty much assured.

All the at-bats for Rowand and Victorino might be explained by teams scouting Rowand and the Phils trying to reassure themselves that the relatively small-statured Flyin' Hawaiian is up for 150 games or so. With a .424/.486/.485 line, there's little to complain about. He's also 3-4 in steals after going 4-7 for all of 2006. Rowand, on the other hand, has been awful; he's 4 for 31 with one double and the walk, for a line (.129/.151/.162) that would make Abe Nunez blush. For what it's worth, he evidently goes through this every spring... but there also might be some concern that his ankle isn't at 100 percent after last August's season-ending injury. The conspiracy-minded might wish to note that Michael Bourn, the possible heir in centerfield, has a .345/.355/.448 line in 29 at-bats, with 4 steals (no CS) and 11 runs scored, and the team is talking him up.

Oh, and it might mean nothing, but Jimmy Rollins has 8 walks in 29 plate appearances. That's not a misprint, and if he somehow approximates that when the real games start, he could score 140 runs this season.

Star-divide

How about on the mound? If ST hitting stats are nearly worthless as an indication of performance, that goes double for pitching; the big guys often will stay back to throw in minor-league games, or will go through a certain appearance trying to get comfortable with a new pitch or to get used to throwing a specific offering in a specific situation. Particularly since there's no competition for the rotation (there's a decision to be made, mind you, but I think there's very little Jon Lieber or Adam Eaton can do to win or lose a job), let's just focus on the relievers.

The two bullpen candidates who have made the most appearances are Clay Condrey and Brian Sanches, with five each. Neither has fared all that well, though Sanches does have 8 strikeouts in 7 IP. Unfortunately, he's also allowed 9 hits and 4 walks, so he should likely pack warm for Ottawa. Joe Bisenius, Geoff Geary and Justin Germano have appeared in four games each. Bisenius has been the best pitcher in camp, allowing no runs and just one hit in 4.1 IP while striking out six. The interesting question is whether it's more worthwhile to keep him with the big club in a presumably lesser role, or have him closing for the Lynx. Germano is more likely to pitch himself into a job, both because he's performed well (1.50 ERA, 6 strikeouts in 6 IP) and because he'll very likely get claimed on waivers if he doesn't make the 25-man.

Most of the remaining bullpen hopefuls have been, well, awful. Fabio Castro could push the Phils into a very tough decision with a great spring, but that 7.11 ERA means he has a lot of work to do over the next two-plus weeks. Rule V picks Jim Ed Warden (10.80 ERA, 2.4 WHIP) and Alfredo Simon (12.46, 2.77) aren't looking good either. But if you figure Gordon (assuming good health), Madson, Geary, Alfonseca and Smith (his 16.62 ERA notwithstanding) are in, then all three are still alive and battling with Germano and Bisenius for the final two spots.

Yeah, I too am ready for the damn season to start.

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FYP: A Stroll Through Spring Stats
"Oh, and it might mean nothing, but Jimmy Rollins has 8 walks in 29 plate appearances. That's not a misprint, and if he somehow approximates that when the real games start, he could score 140 runs this April. "

Just a little edit.

by jonk on Mar 15, 2007 1:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: FYP: A Stroll Through Spring Stats
Unfortunately, Jimmy's still at least talking like walks are for girly men: http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/baseball/16906535.htm

by dajafi on Mar 15, 2007 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: FYP: A Stroll Through Spring Stats
There's good and bad in that article.  He says he waits for his pitch and that he doesn't need to get hits.  But, he also said he wants 200 and doesn't pay attention to walks.  I hope this is just another stupid Hayes article and another athlete just running his mouth and it having nothing to do with reality.

by David S. Cohen on Mar 15, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: FYP: A Stroll Through Spring Stats
"More so, it's the quality of the at-bat," Rollins said. "That's my plan all year long. It feels good. I don't feel there's a pitch I can't get to. Most of it is mental."

You are so right.

This is why I never pay much attention to what guys say. The above makes little sense.  A quality at bat is one in which you don't go fishing for a pitch out of the strike zone.  Yet Rollins adds that there isn't a pitch he can't reach -- which is pretty silly really since he's domonstrated time and again that the eye high fastball is deadly to him; a guaranteed pop out.

Rollins is walking a ton so far and that is a good thing.  Just keep that up Jimmy and all will be well.  Drive the ball to the opposite field -- take the pitches you can't hit -- and you are an MVP candidate.  I don't think he can actually do that -- his track record is pretty good but very consistent.  Lots of XBH; decent average; few walks.  But if he can walk just a little bit more often he's gonna have a big, big year I think.  

by smitty on Mar 15, 2007 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: FYP: A Stroll Through Spring Stats
smitty, I agree. Further, much as we sometimes get on Jimmy for his impatience, his aggressive approach and confidence feeds the good stuff he does at least as much as it gets him into trouble. I don't really want him to be Pat Burrell when it comes to Three True Outcomes achievements; it's not his job.

There's also this--Rollins' three-year splits when he puts the first pitch in play:

.338/.341/.535 (he was plunked twice--hence the difference between average and OBP)

That ain't bad.

by dajafi on Mar 15, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: FYP: A Stroll Through Spring Stats
Every hitter has a great line on putting the first pitch into play. This is because it's impossible to strike out on the first pitch, thus removing all strikeouts from the batting line, and also because batters are likely to swing at the first pitch only if they get a good pitch to hit or one they're sitting on.

For reference, here are some lines from some other Phillies on the first pitch:

Ryan Howard: .427/.430/1.000
Pat Burrell: .403/.401/.737 (OBP is lower than BA probably because he got thrown out at 2nd or something)
Abraham Nunez: .319/.321/.478

Rollins may actually have a below average line (given his stats as a whole) when swinging at the first pitch.

by christonabike on Mar 15, 2007 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

great point
Shoulda thought of that. I guess I associate it with Rollins somewhat because I remember one of the first times he got really hot--I want to say in '04--it seems liked he was constantly ripping first-pitch offerings into the corner.

More proof that "watching the games" isn't a real good basis from which to draw conclusions...

by dajafi on Mar 15, 2007 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

League averages?
Anyway to get league averages on first pitch numbers?

by David S. Cohen on Mar 15, 2007 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: League averages?
I Bill Felber's "The Book on the Book" he writes a chapter called "The most underappreciated words in baseball."  The chapter describes how much better batters hit with the count in their favor and how poorly they hit with two strikes.

He cites his study that tallied the results of 5,000 pitcher-batter confrontations during the 2004 season.  He determined that guys putting the first pitch in play hit .354 and slugged .571.

by smitty on Mar 16, 2007 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: FYP: A Stroll Through Spring Stats
Getting thrown out at second doesn't reduce OBP....  Sac Flies do though..  Its Hits plus walks plus hit by pitches divided by hits plus walks plus hit by pitches plus sac flies...  Sac bunts are not included.

by Homer on Mar 16, 2007 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: A Stroll Through Spring Stats
If I were the Phils, I'd pitch the starters in B games for the rest of the spring and have the relievers throw all the innings in A games - from start to finish.  Get them lots of innings and see who's doing well.  Right now, 4 or 5 innings (or the complete-spring-translated 10 or so) is pretty worthless.

by David S. Cohen on Mar 15, 2007 11:21 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: A Stroll Through Spring Stats
the competition being what it is, I can't imagine Germano not making the team. I think Simon gets the last spot (since Warden's never even seen AAA ball), but Bisenius is in the ML bullpen before too long.

by perfectdepth on Mar 15, 2007 11:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Simon/Warden
Yeah, I don't see them letting Germano go. He's got too much potential value, as a righty #6 or #7 starter, and his track record in AAA (sub-4 ERAs something like three years running) is too good. He is what he is, a solid 9th or 10th guy on a staff.

Not sure I agree about the two Rule V guys, though; Warden's got a better shot to baffle the league for a couple months with his freaky arm angle, while Simon seems to have little but a straight fastball. He's pitched at AAA, but he's been awful there (6.75 in 10 starts last year). At the moment, I doubt either of them start with the Phils, though I wouldn't be surprised if Gillick worked out a deal to keep one or both.

by dajafi on Mar 15, 2007 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Simon/Warden
I'm not remotely confident about either being a major league talent either...I was leaning more toward Warden after the Rule V draft for the reasons you've said, but if he can't baffle spring training invites, maybe his unique delivery isn't all that deceptive.

by perfectdepth on Mar 15, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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