Unfortunately, the Phillies current situation is one that actually defies statistical analysis to a certain extent. Let's look at the pitchers invovled.

Jamie Moyer is 44. He has no comparables. Look at how his VORP and WARP3 are projected to fall off a cliff next year. While I don't have access to his projections for last year, I'd guess he was projected to pitch poorly then as well. I also believe that Jamie Moyer is one of those pitchers who consistently exceeds his FIP projections, much like a knuckleballer would (I don't have any data to back this up, other than that his FIP exceeded his ERA by an average of .46 runs over the last 3 years.)

Adam Eaton's projections are also skewed by his injury riddled season(s). I don't believe that projections systems can tell the difference between an injury and the year a player loses it.

That said, personally, I think Lieber will be about as good as a pitcher as Eaton will be next year. Signing Eaton was basically a mistake, though not necessarily an avoidable one, as I highly doubt Gillick could have predicted he could get Garcia. Nonetheless, let's imagine what that $8 million could have gotten us instead.

The following are outfielders that signed for 3 less than $3.5 million a year for 3 years or less:
Frank Catalanotto
Trot Nixon
David Dellucci
Rondell White (maybe)

Relievers that signed for 4 years or less at leass than $5 million a year:
Chad Bradford
Jamie Walker
Justin Speier
Octavio Dotel (maybe)

Now, some of those players would have required giving up draft picks, which may have not made them worth signing. However, if you pick a player from each of those columns above, I'd certainly take the pair over Lieber or Eaton.

With Garcia's injury concern as of earlier tonight ("bicep tightness"?), the team's inability to trade Lieber might be a relative blessing in disguise.

The issue with this post is that there is no age listed.  Moyer is 44.  Lieber is 37.  Eaton is 29.  That makes this a little more defensible.  I don't really like the Eaton signing, but next year, the Phillies will have Garcia and Lieber possibly both leave as free agents, and Moyer will be 45.  The rotation would be Myers, Hamels, and three spots to fill.  I do kind of like the idea of having Eaton signed.

Still, I agree that this signing will affect my opinion of Gillick a lot.  I have hated some of his trades and bad bench/bullpen signings, but he has shown some good moves now and then.  His decision to put $24MM to three years of Eaton doesn't appear very good based on numbers, but if Gillick does have a good instinct for less tangible things, he would show it with signings like this.