Community Projection: Ryan Howard

by WholeCamels on Mar 28, 2007 10:47 PM EDT in News Comment 16 comments

H-Bomb

AVG: .302
OBP: .445
SLG: ~~.670~~ .597
HR: 48
R: 112
RBI: 139
SB: 0

A slight slip in the triple crown stats, but Howard is actually going to be a better hitter in 2007. He's going to draw a ton of walks, of both the regular variety and the "take our chances with Pat Burrell" type, and he'll continue to punish just about everything else.

EDIT: Thanks to jonk for pointing out that I failed to revise his SLG down when I bumped his OBP as I was working this out. I think it'd take about a jillion doubles to get a .670 SLG with only 48 homers.

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Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

AVG .309
OBP .416
SLG .618
HR 47
R 110
RBI 135
SB 0

by MattS on Mar 28, 2007 11:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

AVG: .310
OBP: .450
SLG: .675
HR: 44
R: 108
RBI: 125
SB: 0

Morons will wonder where his power went, and think of this season as a disappointment.

by phatj on Mar 28, 2007 11:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

I thought Bake was smoking crack for having Howard slug .670 with an OPS of 1.115, but then phat decided to out crack him. Howard isn't a doubles guy, but I'd like to know how many he'd need to hit with 44 homers and a .310 average to slug .675. I guess we are looking at 130+ walks, and that helps, but those are some gaudy numbers.

Personally, I think Howard hits around .290-.300 with an OBP around .400 and a SLG around .600. If he breaks 1.000 OPS, I will be surprised (but not too much so).

by jonk on Mar 29, 2007 12:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

Assuming ~700 PAs with ~130 BBs, he'd have about 210 "extra bases" (AB X IsoP) given phatj's numbers. Take out what he gets from homers (44 X 3 = 132) and you're left with just under 40 doubles. Not impossible, but he only had 25 last year, with one triple. Then again, he had 17 and 2 in half the PAs in 2005...

by Seth on Mar 29, 2007 3:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

...but on the other hand, he was walking a lot less in '05. Anyway: AVG: .290 OBP: .430 SLG: .605 HR: 47 R: 112 RBI: 130 SB: 1 (Davey Lopes!) His BABIP is probably due for a correction, and nobody in the post-juiced era hits almost 60 HRs every year. Let the hand-wringing about strikeouts and protection begin.

by Seth on Mar 29, 2007 4:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

Thanks for putting effort to my laziness. Yeah, I guess it definitely seems more reasonable, though, it is 12 more doubles than last year. It is interesting how similiar the numbers are, but just slight changes causes significant differences.

Lastyear he had 581 ABs and this simulation is predicting 570. 11 more ABs and 14 less homers add up to just 12 more doubles (or about). Either way, he'll need to be a stud to hit 37 or so doubles, 44 homers AND walk 130 times. I sure hope it happens, cause I think we'll need it.

by jonk on Mar 29, 2007 5:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

No, that's not nearly 40 doubles. It's nearly 80 doubles. 78 extra bases (210 extra bases - 44*3 from homeruns) means 78 doubles which added 1 point of ISO not 2 points. It's one base past a single.

by MattS on Mar 29, 2007 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

Doh. How silly of us. I did the exact same thing. In fact, I did the, had the answer and then didn't pay attention to the data to get it correctly. I figured it seemed a little off, but now my mind is swirling.

by jonk on Mar 30, 2007 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

Just noticed Bake's change, and now I feel bad since I kinda unfairly criticized him and phatj, and seemingly convinced him to drop around 80 points off of Howard's doubles. His .445 OBP will REALLY help him if he hits 49 homers. Like, ridiculously help him since he'll be walking a ton. CBP depresses walks, so, that may have caused a few less this past year, but Seth has made me think he can break the .600 barrier in SLG, maybe around .620.

by jonk on Mar 29, 2007 5:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

You shouldn't feel bad. Howard's HR/fly ball rate is ridiculous, and most of his XBH, given his swing and style, are from fly balls. I think it'd be a pretty substantial sea change to expect (1) a dozen or so of those fly balls to turn into doubles instead, and/or (2) more line drive/hard grounder down the line doubles from Howard.

The last two years, generally, when Howard hit the ball hard enough for an XBH, it went out of the park. He'll probably get fewer XBH this year, but I can't see the rate changing too much. He can't be Babe Ruth for a full season, but he's going to be an on-base machine with huge power, which is still a wonderful thing.

by WholeCamels on Mar 29, 2007 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What, you want me to do math?

Basically, I was figuring that the sudden improvement in Howard's approach at the plate seen after the All-Star break is for real, and was figuring rate stats based on that. I think he's going to hit better than he did overall last year, when given the chance, but he's going to be given fewer overall chances, thus the low HR estimate. In hindsight, I probably have his homers too low.

by phatj on Mar 29, 2007 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the voice of (relative) doom

AVG: .286
OBP: .404
SLG: .538
HR: 39
R: 108
RBI: 115
SB: 1

In the perverse logic of Philadelphia sports, Howard did himself no favors by performing so well last year.

by dajafi on Mar 29, 2007 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Community Projection: Ryan Howard

Last year caught the league a bit unawares and just built on itself. A season where just about everything went right and maybe even a career year at a relatively early age. So .... another good season on tap but a step down. A few more AB, a few less HR and SLG. Also slight drop in obp:

AB -- 600
AVG -- .297
OBP -- .415
SLG -- .635
HR -- 50
R -- 99
RBI -- 131
SB -- 0

by allentown on Mar 29, 2007 4:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs