The Cruelest Month?

by David S. Cohen on Apr 9, 2007 10:28 AM EDT in News Comment 13 comments

T.S. Eliot seems to have pegged it when talking about April, at least from the Phillies perspective, that is. With another miserable start (their third 1-5 start in four years), the Phils are left asking why MLB can't hold off the start of the season until May 1.

What is it about April and the Phils? Ever since they got off to a torrid 17-5 start in 1993, they've had 3 winning months of April (over 13 seasons). This year's 1-5 start doesn't bode well for increasing that number to 4.

The numbers are below for your review. Not including 1993 (the chart includes it at the top just for comparison, not in the totals), the Phils have won 44% of their March and April games, compared to 49% of their May through October games. They have broken even twice before May, had winning records 3 times, and had 9 seasons (including this one so far) of losing records.

I have no answers, so I'm opening up the floor. Why are the Phils so bad in April? Does the instructional staff do something wrong in Clearwater to prepare them? Is it just a fluke? Is there a weather problem going from sunny Clearwater to chilly Philadelphia? (If that's the case, does it affect other teams in a similar situation?) I really don't know, but it seems like something bad is happening here.

And, needless to say, from a fan's perspective, I'm sick of it.

	March/April			May to October
	W	L	%	W	L	%	%Diff
1993	17	5	0.773	80	60	0.571	0.201
1994	9	14	0.391	45	47	0.489	(0.098)
1995	2	2	0.500	67	73	0.479	0.021
1996	13	11	0.542	54	84	0.391	0.150
1997	8	16	0.333	60	78	0.435	(0.101)
1998	12	13	0.480	63	74	0.460	0.020
1999	11	11	0.500	66	74	0.471	0.029
2000	7	17	0.292	58	80	0.420	(0.129)
2001	14	10	0.583	72	66	0.522	0.062
2002	9	18	0.333	71	63	0.530	(0.197)
2003	16	12	0.571	70	64	0.522	0.049
2004	10	11	0.476	76	65	0.539	(0.063)
2005	10	14	0.417	78	60	0.565	(0.149)
2006	10	14	0.417	75	63	0.543	(0.127)
2007	1	5	0.167	0	0	NA	NA
Total	132	168	0.440	855	891	0.490	(0.050)

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Season evening out

I'll throw out a thought. The team is just okay.

I think we get fooled by the way they've played at the end of year. The team typically tears it up over the final months and makes a push for the playoffs only to come short. It seems like that high level of play to end the year fools us into thinking the team is as good as they look.

In short, the team is not as bad as it starts and not as good as it finishes. It's just mediocre overall.

If the team evenly distributed it's losses over the course of the season and missed the playoffs, surely we'd say they just weren't good enough and didn't have the players. However, given the difference in how they play at the start and end of the year we assume they are good enough but just can't start the year off well enough to be in contention at the end.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Apr 9, 2007 10:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Season evening out

But that's just a statement of what happens. Why are they semi-consistently awful at the beginning and much better at the end?

by David S. Cohen on Apr 9, 2007 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: The Cruelest Month?

I think that if you break the chart down into "Fregosi," "Francona," "Bowa," and "Manuel," there's a strong case to be made that this is a Manuel problem. The two absolute worst starts were Francona in 2000 and Bowa in 2002, but over the rest of both those guys' tenures the team started okay or better.

I can't remember if Charlie screwed with the lineups at the start of '05 and '06 as he did last week, though the Polanco/Utley mishegas at the beginning of the 2005 season maybe didn't help.

It's still too little information to draw any solid conclusions, and it's frustrating that the coaching changes of last winter haven't helped here. You can't even blame the usual slow start from Rollins this time. Basically it's just a pisser.

by dajafi on Apr 9, 2007 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: The Cruelest Month?

I'm beginning to think that these April struggles really come down to luck. To be sure, the team were legitimately bad in 05 and 06. But all the arguements commonly used to explain what causes these struggles imply that the team should get better as April goes on and this doesn't happen. In 2005 the run differentials were +4 for the first 5 games, -5 in the second 5, -12 in the third five, and -1 for the last 4. In 2006, they were -10 in the first 5, -1 in the second five, +5 in the third five, and then -2 in the last 4.

It's so counterintuitive I have a hard time believing it, but so far I haven't found a lot to suggest otherwise.

by enterpsmith on Apr 9, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Luck?

Today's disaster certainly was not due to luck.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Apr 9, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: The Cruelest Month?

They didn't help themselves, that's for sure. But consider the FIPs of the Phillies and the Mets.

by enterpsmith on Apr 9, 2007 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: The Cruelest Month?

I was at the game. A business acquaintance had tickets and couldn't go. The Mets fans were mostly decent and only really were rude when Rollins batted or made that critical error. I spoke with a few of them and they thought they would win the game when Hamels went out and the Phillies pen took over. They very patiently sat through most of the game and when Smith came in one of them turned to me and said the game was theirs. They also revealed that during the weekend series with the Braves the bottom third of the Braves lineup did some damage against them while they have no fear of the bottom third of the Phillies lineup. BTW the Braves were really counting on the return of Hampton. It's a major loss for them.

I have two theories for the slow starts. I haven't checked this by studying the individual stats over the years but it's possible they are just a group of slow starters. Some players historically have bad springs and get hot later. Usually teams have a mix of guys who get off to hot starts and guys who get off to slow starts. I know it sounds simplistic but the number of slow starts has to be more than coincidence. The other theory, which I don't like, is that the early expectations weight the players down and after the club seems to fall out of contention the pressure is off and they play better.

by gategem on Apr 10, 2007 4:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: The Cruelest Month?

They certainly have a lot of slow starters. You would think a GM would consider this when building a team, rather than try to throw away one of the few fast starters on the team. I think the pressure angle can't be overlooked either. Was the Rollins' trash talk encouraged by management to sell tickets? Given the Phillies appalling failings in prior seasons it certainly seemed misplaced, especially since baseball isn't really a sport that goes in for that a lot. Did Rollins' error result from putting extra pressure on himself in his first game in NYC?

by allentown on Apr 10, 2007 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: The Cruelest Month?

"I think we're the team to beat" doesn't really qualify as trash talk. It's all been incredibly overblown, with the fans and media making a much, much bigger deal out of it than any of the players involved. To quote Billy Wagner, a guy who knows a thing or two about saying controversial things:

"Jimmy was just speaking what he felt to be the truth. There's nobody in here with any negative thoughts toward him. I don't think his teammates would have respected him much if he came out and said, 'Hey, we're shooting for second place again this season.' "

by Seth on Apr 10, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

slow starters

It's true. Here are the differences for Phils regulars in career OPS in April vs. overall career OPS, through Sunday's games.

Barajas: -.046
Howard: -.180
Utley: -.067
Rollins: -.035
Helms: -.112
Burrell: +.014
Rowand: -.129

I didn't bother to do this for Ruiz and Victorino, since Ruiz has never previously spent an April in the big leagues and Shane didn't become a regular until later last season. Howard's gap probably isn't very revealing either, since 2006 was his first full season. But the rest of them have a few years at this now, and with the slight exception of Burrell (who's off to another strong start), they're all worse in April.

I did this a little for the pitchers, and it's not nearly as pronounced: Myers actually has been much better in April than his overall career numbers, Garcia and Eaton have been slightly better in April, and Moyer and Gordon have been a little worse. So if your feeling has been that the rotation's basically done fine, and the hitters have stunk, well, there's reason for that.

by dajafi on Apr 10, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: slow starters

Very interesting. Can you post stats for Abreu and Lieberthal?

by Celebre Twins on Apr 10, 2007 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: The Cruelest Month?

it looked to me like Rollins was a bit more tense in the field than usual. He almost made an error when Howard made a top class pick at 1st to save a throw in the dirt earlier in the game, and he definatley didn't hit as well as he had been. Looked a little like he bottled it to me.

by fredex1 on Apr 10, 2007 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: The Cruelest Month?

we're obviously not getting the production we expected... don't panic yet.. let's get Howard on track, bring back Garcia and Lieber and then we'll talk...

great analysis by the way...

"Hit it where they ain't"
Phillies Chronicles

by klkatz on Apr 11, 2007 12:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs