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Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?

In a revelation that shocked approximately nobody, the Phillies announced that an MRI of RHP Freddy Garcia's right shoulder revealed rotator cuff fraying and possible labrum problems.

This development reveals two possible scenarios, neither of them pretty:

  1.  The arm was seriously damaged when the trade happened, pitching this season exacerbated the problem.  But most of the harm had already been done.  The Phillies traded a stud prospect and a talented cipher for a lemon.
  2.  A smaller, correctible problem was not addressed in the offseason/spring training, Garcia was allowed to pitch hurt, which made the problem much, much worse.
If the allegations that the team failed to perform an MRI before making the trade are true, it's just another exhibit in the rapidly growing case against the Phillies.  

Even a superficial look at Garcia's 2006 season reveals that he wasn't the same pitcher as before.  The strikeouts were down along with the velocity.  He had gone from being a serious power pitcher to being a finesse and location guy.

So where do they go from here?  The once six-deep rotation is down to fourthe hit-or-miss Jon Lieber, Jamie Moyer, and Adam Eaton, and the young Cole Hamels.  Kyle Kendrick is not a long term solution.

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There's one obvious solution...
We do have a pretty good young starter coming off the DL very soon.

Frankly, Alfonseca has been pretty good closing out games these past few weeks. The starting pitching has been atrocious. So why not throw Myers back into the rotation and live with Alfonseca closing?

Gordon has been tossing some balls and will be throwing off a mound pretty soon. So eventually he'll be back in the bullpen. Frankly, I can't see any argument that would support that Myers is more needed in the bullpen.

Either that or a trade, but the fact is something must be done. The all star break is about a month away and the Phils are only 4 back of the Mets(which surprises me). They owe it to us and themselves to give this thing an honest shot. Filling out the rotation with AA pitchers and signing Jose Mesa is not giving it an honest shot.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Jun 12, 2007 9:34 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: There's one obvious solution...
If you subscribe to the theory (like I do) that Myers' injury had more to do with the sudden, severe change in workload than anything else, I'd think sending him back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen would only further stress the arm.

Of course, I wouldn't have moved him to the 'pen in the first place, but that particular barn door has closed.

by WholeCamels on Jun 12, 2007 10:00 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: There's one obvious solution...
I wouldn't count on Alfonseca's success to continue.  11 Ks and 9 BBs in 27 innings aren't numbers that inspire confidence; I think he's been lucky, and is heading for a nosedive. And while it's a good sign that Gordon's throwing, "eventually" could still be August, or next year. The Phillies have not indicated a timetable for his return.

Without Gordon or Myers, there are zero reliable, high-strikeout guys in the bullpen. I'm not sure that this is worse than the difference between Myers and Kendrick in the rotation, but I guess it's an argument.

by Seth on Jun 12, 2007 10:24 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
I see a potential problem with putting Myers back in the rotation. I can't think of a quality starter who switched from the rotation to the bullpen to the rotation all in one season. Both roles require different perpetration and both take different tolls on the arm. If Myers is going to start, he's going to need to spend a few weeks in the minors stretching out his arm. But what effect will that have on his arm? He's clearly been overthrowing the ball in relief, with his fastball in the 93-96 range after consistently sitting in the 90-92 range as a starter. Will he continue to overthrow as a starter? Will he end up on the shelf again in August?

The decision to move Myers to the bully has been debated over and over again. I don't think it was the right move at the time, and I still don't, but by trying to "fix it" now and put him back in the rotation, I think you risk doing more long term damage to his arm. Ease him back in, monitor his workload, and hope to get quality innings out of him for the last 3 months. In the offseason, move him back into the rotation.

As for the 5th spot in the rotation, I still think the best course of action is to use what you have from within, or possibly look to make a deal with a team that is out of the running come mid July.

by FTN414 on Jun 12, 2007 10:00 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
This is something else, I wanted to write this in the last post, but didn't think about it until I hit submit.

Why not use the 5th spot in the rotation as a "bullpen game" in a sense? Half the guys in our bullpen never pitch anyway. On that day, start with Condrey for 3 innings, then let Yoel pitch 2 innings, throw Rosario out there for 2. At least it will give those guys regular game action.

by FTN414 on Jun 12, 2007 10:03 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
That's pretty far outside the box for the Phillies. Which isn't to say it's not a good idea, just that I couldn't see them doing it in any planned way.

My guess is they'll make a bad trade.

by dajafi on Jun 12, 2007 10:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
well, the Nats did it a few times back when Frank Robinson was at the helm, and he was never the most inventive manager in baseball. if Kendrick fails, I don't think it's out of the question.

by perfectdepth on Jun 13, 2007 12:11 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
I have a longtime theory that a team could be very successful if it simply had 12 relief pitchers, each of whom would pitch 1-2 innings most games. The money saved by getting rid of scrubs like Garcia and Lieber could be used to get a bunch of good relievers that can usually shut down another team for one inning.

Hey, it works well on the Playstation :)

by maxr on Jun 12, 2007 3:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
Put Myers back in.

Some here will recall that I was one of the biggest proponents for trading Lieber in March, as well as one of the biggest defenders of moving Myers to the bullpen in April. I continue to stand by both of those positions.

But circumstances today are very different. The choice now isn't between Myers in the rotation plus Lieber in the bullpen vs. Lieber in the rotation plus Myers in the bullpen. It's Myers in the rotation plus some random guy at the back of the bullpen vs. Myers in the bullpen plus someone with no major league experience in the rotation.

The claim that Myers' arm will be strained by moving back and forth between starting and relieving strikes me as nothing more than wild speculation. We know that high pitch counts cause injuries because there have been studies on that subject. There have not been studies on whether injuries are caused by moving from the rotation to the bullpen or vice versa. People are frankly just making stuff up here. The reason why no one has moved around like this with success is that no one has ever really tried it. There is a sample size of approximately zero. There is no basis for drawing a conclusion either way.

by taco pal on Jun 12, 2007 10:26 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
"The claim that Myers' arm will be strained by moving back and forth between starting and relieving strikes me as nothing more than wild speculation. We know that high pitch counts cause injuries because there have been studies on that subject. There have not been studies on whether injuries are caused by moving from the rotation to the bullpen or vice versa. People are frankly just making stuff up here. The reason why no one has moved around like this with success is that no one has ever really tried it. There is a sample size of approximately zero. There is no basis for drawing a conclusion either way."

You always seem very sure of your opinions, if I provide you with some insight on this from someone who knows much more about this than both of us, will you acknowledge what I posted?

by FTN414 on Jun 12, 2007 10:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
If you have some information on this phenomenon, could you please post it? I've never seen any studies on the matter, and I'm honestly quite curious.

by Seth on Jun 12, 2007 10:41 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
As you can see, I'm not the only person who had that reaction after reading your comment. If you have any such information (not just some lame scout spouting off, but a statistical study or an opinion of an orthopedist), then you should have posted it the first time.

by taco pal on Jun 12, 2007 10:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
I have an e-mail out. When I get the info, I'll share it.

I think it's kind of just common sense. The reason there is zero sample size is because of how ludicrous the idea really is. You never move a starter to a short reliever to a starter in the same season because of the adverse effect on the arm. Each role requires different preparation and adjustment. Once the arm is adjusted to a certain regiment, you can't just "undo" that and go back to something else.

As I said, I'll post the info when I get it. And if I'm wrong, I'll certainly admit it. However, I think if this little experiment that everyone seems to want does go through, we'll be sitting here lamenting the loss of Myers long term in 2 months.

by FTN414 on Jun 12, 2007 10:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
But do you think Myers really had time to adjust to the new role?  He pitched only 20 innings as a reliever.  I have no basis for saying this, but that hardly seems enough to make me believe that his body has fully adjusted, especially after all this time off.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 12, 2007 11:05 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
I can't say for sure, but you can't just think about it in terms of 20 innings. When was the move actually made? From that point until he got hurt, he was in the mind frame of pitching in relief, and even days when he didn't pitch, he had to prepare as a reliever, not a starter. That's kind of my point. The entire process is different, from the exercises you do, to what you do in between appearances. There is no precedent for this because no team has been foolish enough to risk a valuable asset in that manner.

by FTN414 on Jun 12, 2007 11:09 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
As of now, I'm just not seeing it. Maybe I have no common sense.

It seems to me that it's common for pitchers to successfully transition from starting to relieving in the middle of a season. It seems to me that it's also common for pitchers to successfully transition from relieving to starting in the middle of a season. Obviously, both of these types of transitions have to be done according to certain procedures. New starters are stretched out gradually. New relievers appear in back-to-back games less frequently at first. But nevertheless, both are done fairly often.

So why can't a guy go through two transitions in the same year, as long as both transitions are done gradually? Is his arm going to lose elasticity, like one of those springs from high school physics class? Of course, if you transitioned a pitcher back and forth from starting to relieving without any adjustment periods in between, then that would be a problem. But that would be a problem even if he only made one transition in a season. The number of transitions seems irrelevant to me.

by taco pal on Jun 12, 2007 12:55 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
Similarly, if going back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen is so bad, how is it that a guy can begin a year in a starting rotation, then suffer an injury causing him to get shut down completely, then return to the starting rotation later in the year? That happens all the time. Are you saying that

Starting --> No Pitching At All --> Starting

is somehow better than

Starting --> Relieving --> Starting

?

Or does any pitcher who gets hurt in the middle of the season have to stay out for the remainder of the year? Wouldn't that mean Myers can't come back at all this year, whether in the rotation or in the bullpen?

by taco pal on Jun 12, 2007 12:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
I agree with Taco Pal and others who don't see a problem with Myers returning to the rotation. Here is a link to Myers 2007 game log. Since he started spring training in mid Feb, this is how his season breaks down:

6 weeks preparing to start (spring training)

2 weeks starting real games (4/2 - 4/13)

6 weeks in the pen (4/18 - 5/23)

Considering that he has spent his entire career as a starter, I can't see why there should be a problem returning to this role after only 6 weeks in the pen. Clearly he will have to be stretched out, but there is no reason why this can't be done at the mlb level. I would rather have a 50 pitch start from Myers than a start from a minor leaguer who is clearly not ready.

by Celebre Twins on Jun 12, 2007 1:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Okay.
There's no point in debating it here. If I get anything back, I'll post it, but it won't matter anyway. Put Myers back in the rotation, and we can all complain about that decision when he goes under the knife in August. The bottom line is, you can't point to an example of a guy starting the season as a starting pitcher, being moved to short relief, and then being moved back to the starting rotation. Guys go in the bullpen as long men and mop up relievers, they pitch once a week, not 3 times in 4 days. It's a zero sample data set because no team is dumb enough to try. But that might change...

by FTN414 on Jun 12, 2007 1:09 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
OK, I can't re-print the info I was given, sorry.

In short, a case like this is unprecedented. Guys have gone from starting to being a long man back to starting, but not in terms of short relief. The idea that Myers might be able to go back to the rotation because he only spent a month in relief is possible, but there are no comparisons to this because it hasn't happened.

I can't say more than that. I understand WHY people think moving Myers back is the right move. In the short term, it might be, but if it causes serious arm trouble, then what will people be saying? I've never been the biggest Brett Myers fan, but I think his arm is too important to mess with at this point. If this were his last year before free agency and you knew he was going to bolt, sure, take a risk if you don't care about the rest of his career. But we have two expensive years left on his deal, and he can be a positive value (a good bit of value) to this team, I'd hate to see that wasted for the sake of winning 5 more games.

by FTN414 on Jun 12, 2007 2:49 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
I think the reason it's unprecedented is because no team--other than our beloved Phillies--has ever been stupid enough to put a very good starting pitcher into the bullpen, not out of necessity, but because the GM was stupid and acquired a 6th starter before being able to unload the 5th.

Smoltz went to the pen because he was coming off Tommy John surgery. Schilling was also on rehab. Eckersley was wearing down as a starter by the time he went to the pen. Perhaps there are examples out there, but I can't think of a single instance where a team moved a very good HEALTHY starting pitcher--coming into his prime--into the bullpen.

So the reason it's unprecedented is because the team is hopefully realizing how dumb a move it was in the first place.

by maxr on Jun 12, 2007 3:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
Can we not say that moving him to the pen is possibly what put him on the DL in the first place? Could moving him back to the rotation where he can be on a set schedule just like he has every year of his career so far be easier on his arm?

Does putting him in the role of closer where he'll be up and throwing most nights the easier thing on his arm?

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Jun 12, 2007 4:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
Not to over-simplify, but prior to this year, Myers spent his entire career as a starter and never on the DL a single time.  Then, 20 innings into his relief career, he gets hurt.  Coincidence?  Certainly a possibility, but who wants to gamble on that?  Not me.

by kuff6 on Jun 12, 2007 4:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
When Smoltz returned to the rotation in 2005 at the age of 38, many pundits questioned the move. At the time Smoltz declared the the reason was quite simple, closing put more wear on his arm than starting, citing the problems of getting up and down in the pen versus being on a regular schedule. When we think about closers, it is easy to see that they throw less than a third of the innings of a starter, but sometimes we forget that the pitches thrown while warming up and the lack of pacing while in the game can be very taxing for a pitcher's arm.

by Celebre Twins on Jun 13, 2007 5:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
I have no doubt Smoltz is right. But Smoltz didn't o from starter to closer to starter in 3 months.

by FTN414 on Jun 13, 2007 5:54 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
Back in the olden days, starter closed a lot of games.  You can look it up.  Check out startig pitchers records up into the 60s.  You'll see pretty much all of them made a few appearances out of the pen every year.  I remember seeing Chris Short winning his 20th game (1966?) out of the pen.  

by smitty on Jun 13, 2007 6:28 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
And Short was pretty much cooked after his age 30 season.

by WholeCamels on Jun 15, 2007 11:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
Great.  Robin Roberts and Curt Simmons and Jim Bunning and Warren Spahn and lots and lots of other guys who pitched well past the age of 30 also pitched some games out of the bullpen every year.  There were also lots of "swing men" around who were relievers and starters in the same season.  

There are lots of examples of this kind of stuff in baseball history.  And that's my point.  

by smitty on Jun 15, 2007 6:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
Roberts was dramatically less effective after age 28. he had a resurgence in the 1960s in Baltimore, but the game of baseball was different then and he had to completely reinvent himself. Simmons also suffered arm trouble and, just like Roberts, had to leave Philly and reinvent himself to have success in his 30s.

Spahn is one of the best pitchers of all time. he was freakishly durable. Bunning was also an abnormally sturdy workhorse.

you're naming three guys in the Hall of Fame who played at a time baseball was dramatically different. it proves nothing for the 2007 Phillies.

additionally, the guys you named didn't even relieve that much. per 162 games, Roberts averaged 3 relief appearances. Simmons, 7. Spahn, 5. Bunning, 5. these guys weren't regularly closing out games.

by perfectdepth on Jun 15, 2007 7:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Freddy's (shoulder's) Dead?
Gee whiz guys.  These are just examples of the many, many dozens of guys who started and relieved in the same season.  There have been coments that there is a sample size of zero regarding a guy starting and relieving in the same season and that just is not true.  I could list all of them but ther'snot enough space to list all of those guys.

Joe Nuxall, who wasn't a Hall of Famer and wasn't a freak and didn't suffer devastating arm injuries, started an relieved a bunch of times in the same season.  He pitched a long, long time.  The same is true of Sal Maglie and dozens of other guys.

Further, starters are used in the playoffs as relievers to this day.  

Baseball was indeed different back then.  But that doesn't mean that you can't look at the past and learn from it.  Just look up pitchers in baseball-reference.com and you'll see that many non-hall of Fame, non freakish workhorses were used in both roles.  In fact, for many years most teams had three primary starters and they used bullpen guys to fill in all year as spot staters.  

by smitty on Jun 16, 2007 2:07 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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