Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

by dajafi on Jun 23, 2007 11:41 PM EDT in News Comment 21 comments

Jon Lieber could have thrown his last pitch for the Phillies.

A MRI exam yesterday determined that Lieber has ruptured a tendon in the bottom of his right foot. Lieber, who injured the foot Wednesday in Cleveland, will seek a second opinion Monday in Philadelphia, but he has been told that if he does not have surgery he could lose strength in his leg.

Lieber said it would take at least six to eight weeks to potentially recover from the injury without surgery. But then he would need to begin a throwing program, and by the time he built up arm strength the season would be near its conclusion.

The Phillies are not sure who will replace Lieber in the rotation, but it is expected to come from within the organization.

Well, that changes some things. "Within the organization" most likely means J.A. Happ, but the Ottawa lefty is just off the DL himself and has struggled with command all season. They could audition a minor-league vet like former Braves farmhand Bubba Nelson. At Reading, there's just-demoted Zack Segovia, 1-9 at Ottawa but a winner with seven scoreless innings in his R-Phils return; just-promoted Carlos Carrasco, who won his Eastern League debut after easily handling high-A; and Matt Maloney, another lefty who double-jumped from Lakewood and has posted a 2.55 ERA in four June starts.

"Within the organization" also could mean Brett Myers, presumably, but Myers told a questioner last week that there was no way he would return to the rotation in 2007. Perhaps another option is Fabio Castro, who's gone from Reading to Philadelphia to Reading and now to Ottawa, posting 38 strikeouts in 30.2 IP through it all. Castro started in winter ball and was very effective, but he'd take some time to stretch out--and you'd still just have a very inexperienced lefthander.

For now, Lieber's replacement is Clay Condrey, back yet again from the minors. The Phils won't need a fifth starter until Friday, when they play a day-night doubleheader vs. the Mets.

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Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

Well.....at least none of those guys are Kip Wells or Mike Maroth...

by das411 on Jun 24, 2007 1:31 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

The Inky this morning made it very clear that Myers is not going back in the rotation. Justin Germano sure would look nice right now in a Phils uniform, dontcha think?

by David S. Cohen on Jun 24, 2007 11:43 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

Carpenter....yea that won't happen.

It will be Happ, at least that's my best guess. If they bring Durbin up and he bombs, they'll lose him on waivers.

by FTN414 on Jun 24, 2007 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

I suspect they may try Madsen in the rotation again. With Alfonseca pitching well, Romero, Myers and Gordon on the way, might as well let Madsen take another shot at starting.

Looks like they began stretching him out today with 40 pitches.

It's not like they have a plethora of choices.

by philsme on Jun 24, 2007 7:39 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

i doubt they were stretching him out, i think it was more due to the circumstances.

by Homer on Jun 24, 2007 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

A story on phillies.com says Madson is not an option.

Meanwhile, J.A. Happ pitched today for Ottawa and was just okay: 5 IP, 8 hits, 3 runs, 4 strikeouts. I guess the upside is that he didn't walk anyone and didn't allow any homers.

by dajafi on Jun 24, 2007 10:39 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

Um...so six scoreless innings from the bullpen today...hmm maybe one bullpen game out of five just might be feasible after all...

by das411 on Jun 25, 2007 2:47 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

Madson is the best option in my book. That's not to say he will be great. But they aren't getting lucky again out of the minors. Heck, who knows if Kendrick can even survive at this level.

by philsme on Jun 25, 2007 6:45 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

Keep your eye on the "Start Carrasco Now!" drumbeat that I suspect may be starting up on talk radio any minute now. The fans in this town don't care about player development, they just care about instant gratification and then boo the player if things go wrong.

I'm still hoping for Myers. Surely he should be able to see now that whatever his personal preferences might be, the team needs him. Otherwise, we should just throw some low-expectation journeyman in there and hope for the best. Condrey? Segovia? Durbin? I'd hate to bring up Happ because I think we'd be rushing him (both in terms of health and development) and there could be long-term consequences. And I have my doubts that there'd be a big benefit in the short term either way.

by taco pal on Jun 25, 2007 12:17 PM EDT reply actions

Carrasco

What are the chances that the WIP hosts have any idea that Carlos Carrasco exists?

I suspect Cole Hamels only barely entered their consciousness when he was absolutely destroying A and AAA last year, and Carrasco isn't close to that level.

by phatj on Jun 25, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Carrasco

I wouldn't say Carlos is too far off Hamels' level, all things considered. The overall peripherals are not as dominating, but Carrasco is also only 20 years old and in AA. When Hamels was tearing through the minors last year, he was 22.

by FTN414 on Jun 25, 2007 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Carrasco

Fair point, though Hamels was certainly dominant in his brief time pitching as a 20-year-old.

by phatj on Jun 26, 2007 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Carrasco

I think you're right insofar as not many people know who he is as of right now. They'll be reading his name in the paper shortly though. It's already appeared a few times and he will be referred to (accurately) as the best prospect in the system. That's all some people will need to know.

I know for a fact that I heard Hamels hype on WIP as early as the season where he struck out - I think it was Jeter - during spring training. I personally remember hearing a few bozos call in to demand that Hamels be promoted to the majors immediately. It wasn't a drumbeat, but that was the first time the average fan had even heard of Hamels.

by taco pal on Jun 25, 2007 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

I guess an X-factor in this is how various candidates would handle an abrupt promotion. Would they go the Hamels route, keeping confident even if they get rocked a few times? Or might they get their heads scrambled like Gavin Floyd?

For the journeymen (Nelson, Durbin) I don't really care; Happ I think would be fine, because he probably expected to be up at some point this year anyway. (I'm much more concerned about his health and stamina.) But the question becomes a little trickier when you're talking about, say, Maloney, and it should be a huge consideration as far as Carrasco. He's too valuable a prospect to screw with, so if they do go that route, now or in a month or two, they'd better be confident that he can handle the whole experience.

by dajafi on Jun 25, 2007 4:39 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

Carrasco is 20 and has pitched all of one game above A ball. Hamels was 22 last year and had pitched at AA and AAA.

by allentown on Jun 25, 2007 4:42 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Lieber to DL; Likely Gone for Season

I don't think Maloney is destined to be anything more than a 5th starter in the bigs, so I'd risk him long before I'd risk Carrasco.

by FTN414 on Jun 25, 2007 4:56 PM EDT reply actions

Myers

Will Carroll, in his column today, noted that despite what the Phillies are saying publicly, Myers is rehabbing as if he'll be re-inserted into the rotation. I don't know what the Phillies would gain by saying Myers is going to the pen while getting him ready to start, but if true, it would help clear up the rotation quite a bit. Garcia had been replacement level this year and a healthy Myers would be an upgrade over Lieber, so we'd be back at status quo ante, with a relatively strong rotation and a work-in-progress bullpen.

by enterpsmith on Jun 25, 2007 5:15 PM EDT reply actions