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Power Outage in Ottawa

If you follow the minor leagues at all, you're aware (maybe, maybe you're not) of the complete lack of anything resembling power coming from our new AAA affiliate north of the border in Ottawa. The question is, do we know why this is happening? Will this all work itself out in the end? Does it even matter? So many questions, so let's try and find a few answers..

Star-divide

First, let's get this part out of the way...the Ottawa Lynx are not loaded with prospects. On the offensive side, catcher Jason Jaramillo is the only position prospect on the roster. On the pitching side, we have a few more prospects in Bisenius, Happ and Segovia, but there really aren't many reasons to get excited about this team, and really, not even many reasons to check the box scores. However, Ottawa's offense, particularly their long ball prowess (or lack there of) has been downright shocking. Here are the raw numbers

Runs: 216 (11th of 14)
Hits: 475 (6th of 15)
2B: 89 (11th of 14)
3B: 8 (12th of 14)
HR: 11 (14th of 14)

That's right....it's not a misprint. They have hit a total of 11 home runs in 1,776 AB...a ratio of 1 HR every 161.5 AB. That's....well...that's shocking. The second worst team, home run wise, is Rochester with 27 HR. Let's quick look at other leagues in baseball

PCL (AAA): Leader; 65 (Memphis), Last; 30 (Toledo)
EAS (AA): Leader; 43 (New Hampshire), Last; 18 (Portland)
TEX (AA): Leader; 63 (Frisco), Last; 34 (Arkansas)
SOU (AA): Leader; 52 (Jacksonville), Last; 27 (Huntsville)
CAL (A+): Leader; 72 (Lancaster), Last; 27 (Rancho Cucamonga)
CAR (A+): Leader; 60 (Kinston), Last; 17 (Wilmington)
FSL (A+): Leader; 43 (Sarasota), Last; 18 (Fort Myers, Daytona)
SAL (A-): Leader; 59 (Greensboro), Last; 22 (Savannah)
MWL (A-): Leader; 41 (Beloit), Last; 19 (Fort Wayne)

Ok, there you have it, the Lynx have the single lowest HR total in minor league baseball. Here are the bottom 5

Ottawa: 11
Wilmington: 17
Fort Wayne: 18
Daytona: 18
Portland: 18

The significance of this is, the other 4 teams, with the exception of Portland, are A ball teams, mostly filled with younger players and prospects. It's not surprising to see younger players struggle to hit home runs with great frequency. Portland is in the Eastern League, which is AA.

The next thing we need to do is look at Ottawa's home park. Park Factors are expressed on a 1.0 scale, with more than 1 being hitter friendly, and below 1 being pitcher friendly. Ottawa's 3 year HR factor is 0.90, which favors pitching and lowers home runs. However, this number ranks in a tie for 38th toughest in the minors, tied with Hagerstown, Midland and Tuscon. Let's have a quick look at the other league bottom dwellers in terms of park factor

Portland: 18 HR (1.06)
Daytona: 18 HR (1.32)
Fort Wayne: 18 HR (1.07)
Wilmington: 17 HR (0.72)
Ottawa: 11 HR (0.90)

This is a bit more telling. Daytona plays in a very friendly hitter's park, but have managed only 7 more HR. Wilmington plays in one of the toughest home run hitting parks, and they have 6 more home runs. Portland and Fort Wayne are moderate hitter's parks in terms of the home run factor.

The last area to look at is the actual players. Here are the 8 guys with the most AB's for Ottawa this year, their 2007 performance, and their career numbers in the same categories. The key is simple:

2B/H = % of hits that went for doubles
HR/H = % of hits that went for a home run

Roberson, TOTL: 2018 PA -- 15.6% 2B -- 5.2% HR
Roberson, 2007: 0209 PA -- 16.3% 2B -- 2.0% HR

Thurston, TOTL: 3800 PA -- 17.9% 2B -- 4.8% HR
Thurston, 2007: 0195 PA -- 16.3% 2B -- 2.0% HR

King, TOTL: 2963 PA -- 19.6% 2B -- 7.1% HR
King, 2007: 0173 PA -- 14.6% 2B -- 4.2% HR

Collier*, TOTL: 2466 PA -- 18.1% 2B -- 7.7% HR
Collier*, 2007: 0171 PA -- 15.7% 2B -- 3.9% HR

Burnham, TOTL: 4089 PA -- 23.2% 2B -- 10.6% HR
Burnham, 2007: 0166 PA -- 33.3% 2B -- 00.0% HR

Sandoval, TOTL: 4019 PA -- 17.8% 2B -- 3.4% HR
Sandoval, 2007: 0163 PA -- 09.9% 2B -- 2.4% HR

Jaramillo, TOTL: 907 PA -- 23.8% 2B -- 6.1% HR
Jaramillo, 2007: 156 PA -- 02.9% 2B -- 8.6% HR

Rushford, TOTL: 3300 PA -- 20.6% 2B -- 8.0% HR
Rushford, 2007: 0143 PA -- 21.4% 2B -- 0.0% HR

---------------

Well, there ya have it. For most guys, doubles are up and in almost every case (except Jaramillo), home run percentages are down. To add insult to injury, Lou Collier, who had hit 2 of our 11 home runs this year, retired last week. It's understandable trying to fill a roster with minor league vets, but weren't there any better options than Jim Rushford?

In any event, there really is no reason to even look at Ottawa box scores this year, and looking at the home run totals will probably only result in more astonishment/frustration/pain.

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Re: Power Outage in Ottawa
It always seems like the Phils' best prospects are clustered in the lower levels, but I can't ever remember as clear a distinction between Lakewood/Clearwater and Reading/Ottawa as is the case in 2007. You're absolutely right--aside from Jaramillo and Costanzo (both of whom have been mostly depressing anyway), there's nobody worth following even semi-regularly in the high minors. Further down, there's Marson, Golson, Donald (promoted to CLW today, btw), Cardenas and others who are both doing better right now and seem to have a lot of room for further gains.

I guess this beats the alternative, given that the Phillies' position core guys are all under 30. But it ain't good, and it certainly doesn't help as far as trying to add talent through trades.

by dajafi on Jun 4, 2007 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Power Outage in Ottawa
I don't remember there being a whole lot of hitting prospects worth following in the low minors two years or so ago. To me, this seems pretty consistent with what one might have predicted back then for AAA in 2007.

by taco pal on Jun 4, 2007 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Power Outage in Ottawa
typo (kind of), where I said most guys doubles are up. It's true in some cases, but for the most part, everyone has seen their power go way down. Maybe it was the cold temperatures, maybe it's the ballpark, or maybe it's just the fact that we have guys like Rushford and Roberson, and we can't even find mercs like Randy Ruiz that can mash.

I'm real excited about a number of guys in A-/A+, I'm even more excited about the rosters for Williamsport and the GCL, and I'm pretty giddy about the draft, though I have a feeling one of our first two picks will be a clunker. However, I think if you were to look at AA and AAA, we might have the worst system in baseball, even worse than Washington and San Francisco.

by FTN414 on Jun 4, 2007 4:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Power Outage in Ottawa
I'm not a religious man, but this leads even me to pray for health at Broad (really 11th now) and Pattison).

by David S. Cohen on Jun 4, 2007 4:45 PM EDT reply actions  

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