Power Outage in Ottawa
If you follow the minor leagues at all, you're aware (maybe, maybe you're not) of the complete lack of anything resembling power coming from our new AAA affiliate north of the border in Ottawa. The question is, do we know why this is happening? Will this all work itself out in the end? Does it even matter? So many questions, so let's try and find a few answers..
First, let's get this part out of the way...the Ottawa Lynx are not loaded with prospects. On the offensive side, catcher Jason Jaramillo is the only position prospect on the roster. On the pitching side, we have a few more prospects in Bisenius, Happ and Segovia, but there really aren't many reasons to get excited about this team, and really, not even many reasons to check the box scores. However, Ottawa's offense, particularly their long ball prowess (or lack there of) has been downright shocking. Here are the raw numbers
Runs: 216 (11th of 14)
Hits: 475 (6th of 15)
2B: 89 (11th of 14)
3B: 8 (12th of 14)
HR: 11 (14th of 14)
That's right....it's not a misprint. They have hit a total of 11 home runs in 1,776 AB...a ratio of 1 HR every 161.5 AB. That's....well...that's shocking. The second worst team, home run wise, is Rochester with 27 HR. Let's quick look at other leagues in baseball
PCL (AAA): Leader; 65 (Memphis), Last; 30 (Toledo)
EAS (AA): Leader; 43 (New Hampshire), Last; 18 (Portland)
TEX (AA): Leader; 63 (Frisco), Last; 34 (Arkansas)
SOU (AA): Leader; 52 (Jacksonville), Last; 27 (Huntsville)
CAL (A+): Leader; 72 (Lancaster), Last; 27 (Rancho Cucamonga)
CAR (A+): Leader; 60 (Kinston), Last; 17 (Wilmington)
FSL (A+): Leader; 43 (Sarasota), Last; 18 (Fort Myers, Daytona)
SAL (A-): Leader; 59 (Greensboro), Last; 22 (Savannah)
MWL (A-): Leader; 41 (Beloit), Last; 19 (Fort Wayne)
Ok, there you have it, the Lynx have the single lowest HR total in minor league baseball. Here are the bottom 5
Ottawa: 11
Wilmington: 17
Fort Wayne: 18
Daytona: 18
Portland: 18
The significance of this is, the other 4 teams, with the exception of Portland, are A ball teams, mostly filled with younger players and prospects. It's not surprising to see younger players struggle to hit home runs with great frequency. Portland is in the Eastern League, which is AA.
The next thing we need to do is look at Ottawa's home park. Park Factors are expressed on a 1.0 scale, with more than 1 being hitter friendly, and below 1 being pitcher friendly. Ottawa's 3 year HR factor is 0.90, which favors pitching and lowers home runs. However, this number ranks in a tie for 38th toughest in the minors, tied with Hagerstown, Midland and Tuscon. Let's have a quick look at the other league bottom dwellers in terms of park factor
Portland: 18 HR (1.06)
Daytona: 18 HR (1.32)
Fort Wayne: 18 HR (1.07)
Wilmington: 17 HR (0.72)
Ottawa: 11 HR (0.90)
This is a bit more telling. Daytona plays in a very friendly hitter's park, but have managed only 7 more HR. Wilmington plays in one of the toughest home run hitting parks, and they have 6 more home runs. Portland and Fort Wayne are moderate hitter's parks in terms of the home run factor.
The last area to look at is the actual players. Here are the 8 guys with the most AB's for Ottawa this year, their 2007 performance, and their career numbers in the same categories. The key is simple:
2B/H = % of hits that went for doubles
HR/H = % of hits that went for a home run
Roberson, TOTL: 2018 PA -- 15.6% 2B -- 5.2% HR
Roberson, 2007: 0209 PA -- 16.3% 2B -- 2.0% HR
Thurston, TOTL: 3800 PA -- 17.9% 2B -- 4.8% HR
Thurston, 2007: 0195 PA -- 16.3% 2B -- 2.0% HR
King, TOTL: 2963 PA -- 19.6% 2B -- 7.1% HR
King, 2007: 0173 PA -- 14.6% 2B -- 4.2% HR
Collier*, TOTL: 2466 PA -- 18.1% 2B -- 7.7% HR
Collier*, 2007: 0171 PA -- 15.7% 2B -- 3.9% HR
Burnham, TOTL: 4089 PA -- 23.2% 2B -- 10.6% HR
Burnham, 2007: 0166 PA -- 33.3% 2B -- 00.0% HR
Sandoval, TOTL: 4019 PA -- 17.8% 2B -- 3.4% HR
Sandoval, 2007: 0163 PA -- 09.9% 2B -- 2.4% HR
Jaramillo, TOTL: 907 PA -- 23.8% 2B -- 6.1% HR
Jaramillo, 2007: 156 PA -- 02.9% 2B -- 8.6% HR
Rushford, TOTL: 3300 PA -- 20.6% 2B -- 8.0% HR
Rushford, 2007: 0143 PA -- 21.4% 2B -- 0.0% HR
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Well, there ya have it. For most guys, doubles are up and in almost every case (except Jaramillo), home run percentages are down. To add insult to injury, Lou Collier, who had hit 2 of our 11 home runs this year, retired last week. It's understandable trying to fill a roster with minor league vets, but weren't there any better options than Jim Rushford?
In any event, there really is no reason to even look at Ottawa box scores this year, and looking at the home run totals will probably only result in more astonishment/frustration/pain.
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Re: Power Outage in Ottawa
I guess this beats the alternative, given that the Phillies' position core guys are all under 30. But it ain't good, and it certainly doesn't help as far as trying to add talent through trades.
Re: Power Outage in Ottawa
Re: Power Outage in Ottawa
I'm real excited about a number of guys in A-/A+, I'm even more excited about the rosters for Williamsport and the GCL, and I'm pretty giddy about the draft, though I have a feeling one of our first two picks will be a clunker. However, I think if you were to look at AA and AAA, we might have the worst system in baseball, even worse than Washington and San Francisco.
by FTN414 on Jun 4, 2007 4:45 PM EDT reply actions

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