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The Truth About Shane Victorino

Shane Victorino is from Hawaii:  True.
Shane Victorino is the Phillies rightfielder:  True.
Shane Victorino is having a career year:  True.
Shane Victorino has benefited from Davey Lopes' tutelage:  True.
Shane Victorino is a Phillie because of Ed Wade:  not exactly.

The common lore about Victorino is that he was a Rule 5 pickup by the 2005 Phillies, a team then run by Ed Wade.  It's a feather often ascribed to Ed Wade's cap, as Christina Kahrl did last week in an article about free-talent all-stars.  But, it's not entirely true.

Now, don't get me wrong here.  This is not another Good Phight piece bashing Ed Wade.  In fact, I think it's fair to say that a lot of us here see some serious strengths he had, if not so clearly when Wade was here, definitely in retrospect.  He assembled some top-notch front-line talent, especially hitters and especially through the farm system.  There were lots of other problems he had, but he did have his positives.

But, Victorino being a Phillie is not entirely a positive in Wade's favor.  Why not?  Because at the end of spring training 2005, the Phillies actually offered Victorino back to the Dodgers for the paltry sum of $25,000.  The Phillies didn't want Victorino; they just wanted the cash.

But let's rewind and tell the whole story below the fold.

Star-divide

Victorino was drafted in the 6th round of the 1999 draft by the Dodgers.  He was 18 and signed immediately.  After three years in the Dodgers' low minors, Victorino was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and taken by the Padres in 2002.  The Rule 5 draft requires a team to keep the player on the major league roster or return him to the original team, so the Padres played Victorino at the major league level in 2003 to disastrous results.  In 73 at-bats, Victorino posted a first-half-2006-Nunez-esque .151/.232/.178 line.  On May 28, the Padres returned Victorino to the Dodgers, who kept him in the minors the rest of the year.

Victorino spent another year in the Dodgers minor league system, this time at AA and AAA.  In AA, Victorino showed a bit of power (16 home runs in 293 at-bats), but in AAA, he struggled with a .235/.278/.335 line.  That wasn't good enough for Mr. Assistant MoneyBall GM, Paul DePodesta, who was running the Dodgers at the time.  He left Victorino unprotected in the 2004 Rule 5 draft, and the Phillies, then run by Ed Wade, swooped him up.

For this, the Phillies, and Ed Wade, deserve credit.  They saw promise in Victorino and brought him to the organization.  That promise is clearly paying off now, as the Phillies have a very cheap and very valuable commodity in right field.

But the Phillies, via Ed Wade, almost lost Victorino.  In spring training 2005, Victorino was given a chance to make the team's bench.  But, in 54 at-bats, he hit just .167 with a puny .296 slugging percentage.  The Phillies didn't think their major league roster had room for Victorino, so they offered him back to the Dodgers on March 31, 2005.  According to Rule 5 procedures, the Dodgers could have had him for a mere $25,000 (half the $50,000 the Phillies paid the Dodgers to get Victorino in the first place).  Ed Wade saw Victorino had promise, so he gets credit for that, but he quickly gave up on him.

Victorino would be a Dodger today if it weren't for DePodesta's stupidity in not taking Victorino back for a trivial amount of money.  The Phillies are now benefiting, but it's not because of Ed Wade's wisdom; it's because of DePodesta's error.

To further drive home Ed Wade's deficiencies with Victorino, Wade's handling of Victorino may have, among other things, cost the Phillies the playoffs in 2005.  Remember, in 2005, the Phillies missed the playoffs by one game (one horrible horrible game).  While Wade let Charlie Manuel give 107 at-bats in 2005 to inning-Endy Chavez and his .215/.243/.299 line, Victorino came into his own in Scranton, showing speed (17 stolen bases), power (18 home runs, .534 slugging), patience (51 walks, .377 on-base percentage), and defense (14 outfield assists), all the attributes he's showing now for the big-league club.  Maybe the season would have gone differently if Chavez, along with his late-inning pinch-hit failings, had been replaced mid-season by Victorino.

Of course, we'll never know.  But, we do know, and we should definitely remember, that Ed Wade deserves some credit for Victorino, but by no means all of it.  If DePodesta had coughed up a mere $25,000, Victorino would be hitting Phillies' pitching this afternoon, instead of the other way around.

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Re: The Truth About Shane Victorino
What's kind of baffling to me is the idea that the Padres thought he could hold his own in MLB four years ago. Victorino was 22 and hadn't done anything the year before at AA (.258/.328/.318). He did hit pretty well in spring training in '03, and I guess they figured they could bury him on the bench and then reassign him to the minors in '04. But this was always a guy who had more raw talent than baseball experience or "understanding of how to play".

Wade does deserve credit for nabbing him in December 2004--a move that I thought was nonsensical at the time, and for which BP, BA and the other gurus hooted at him. And I don't really blame him for offering Vic back to the Dodgers that spring; the 2005 Phillies were expected to contend, and it didn't look like he was ready based on his work in March. The blame sits with DePo.

by dajafi on Jul 18, 2007 2:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The Truth About Shane Victorino
The cognoscenti's view of Victorino at the time was pretty negative. I remember John Sickels wrote an article right after that Rule 5 draft in which he said that the Phillies had made the dumbest pick of the draft. At the time Victorino had no record in the minors of demonstrating any on-base ability, nor had he shown any power except during a half-season at AA when he was on the old side for that level (age 23).

I'm not an Ed Wade basher, but on Victorino he just got lucky. DePodesta made a mistake in not taking him back, but only because you should always take minor leaguers back if they're offered to you on general principle, not because Victorino had shown any potential at that point. And Wade made the right decision in offering him back to the Dodgers. The Phillies weren't going to carry him on the roster for the whole season in 2005.

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2007 2:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The Truth About Shane Victorino
For taco pal and dajafi - I agree, Wade made the right decision at the end of spring training.  But, for that, he got lucky.  He shouldn't now get full credit for being the oracle on Victorino.

by David S. Cohen on Jul 18, 2007 3:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The Truth About Shane Victorino
Agreed. In fact, no one here deserves credit (except Victorino himself) and no one deserves a ton of blame. It just is what it is.

If there's anything Wade deserves credit for, it's Bobby Abreu. Even though it was mostly negotiated while Wade was still Assistant GM, that deal was his baby.

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2007 3:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: The Truth About Shane Victorino
Absolutely.  That and getting Thome to come were huge for Wade.

by David S. Cohen on Jul 18, 2007 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: The Truth About Shane Victorino
It is not true that the Phillies wanted the $25K more than they wanted Victorino.  They may foolishly have wanted the 25-man roster spot for a stiff who wasn't as good as Vic, but they clearly wanted Victorino.  It is also possible that Ed and company read the situation correctly and knew that he would not be accepted back and that they would be able to send him to minors for more seasoning and consistent play, which they felt he needed.  Endy is a different story.  He did better elsewhere than he did for Phillies.  Not sure why.  Would Vic have been better, or was he not ready?

by allentown on Jul 19, 2007 11:55 AM EDT reply actions  

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