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All Your Stolen Base Are Belong to Us

First, let me apologize for that very mediocre headline, which would have been timely sometime in 2002.

Now that that's out of the way, the topic of this article is going to be stealing bases, and how good the Phillies have been at it so far this season.

First base coach and prodigious base stealer Davey Lopes was brought on board this offseason, purportedly to help a team with a propensity for running itself out of rallies smarten up on the basepaths.  Additionally, he was supposed to help some of the team's speedsters, especially the blazing fast Shane Victorino, improve both the frequency and success rate of the bag swiping.

Star-divide



And while some of us (ahem) didn't have much good to say about the hiring of Lopes, the plan seems to be working.  I don't know if we can ascribe all of their success to Lopes, but he certainly hasn't been hurting anything.

So far this season, the Phillies as a team have stolen 70 bases in 80 attempts for an outstanding 87.5% success rate.  The leaders of the charge include Michael Bourn, a perfect 13 for 13 on the basepaths; Jimmy Rollins, a solid 15 for 18; and Shane Victorino, a phenomenal 27 for 29, including his last 23 in a row.

Victorino's improvement is the most noticeable.  Prior to 2007, Shane was a mediocre 11 for 16 as a basestealer, despite foot speed that made him a high school track and field 100m record holder in his home state of Hawaii.  His base stealing in the minors, while prolific, was disappointing
in terms of his success rate -- 182 in 251 attempts, a weak 72.5%.

Working on the assumption that a success rate of 75-80% is necessary to be an asset to a team over the course of the season, it's clear that thus far, something has been working.  Led by Victorino, Rollins, and Bourn, and accompanied by the capable Chase Utley and Aaron Rowand, the Phillies have become a formidable threat on the basepaths, and maybe it's time to give Davey Lopes some credit.  God knows he owes this city after those late 1970s playoff heartbreaks at the hands of his Los Angeles Dodgers.

0 recs  |  Comment 12 comments

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Re: All Your Stolen Base Are Belong to Us
Lopes is the one member of the coaching staff who's clearly helped (though I'm kind of a Milt Thompson fan too). I don't think it's impossible that he could be the next manager of the Phillies.

by dajafi on Jul 5, 2007 9:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: All Your Stolen Base Are Belong to Us
I'd agree on the Thompson bit.  They do have the league's best offense, after all.

He seems content to let the players "be themselves" as it were, and not tinker with their approaches too much if it's working.  If he could only fix Burrell, he'd deserve a plaque in Cooperstown.

by WholeCamels on Jul 6, 2007 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: All Your Stolen Base Are Belong to Us
I note that the Phils have been CS only 10 times this year, which is the fewest CS in the majors. They also are fifth in total SB, with 70. In the top 5 teams, here are the numbers:

Rank/Team/Steals/Caught/Attempts/%success

  1. Mets 102/22/124/82%
  2. Angels 77/27/104/74%
  3. Dodgers 75/25/100/75%
  4. Twins 73/13/86/84.88%
  5. Phillies 70/10/80/87.5%
  6. Orioles 68/16/84/81%
You would tend to figure that the most successful teams would attempt the most steals and be successful most often.

Even so, the Phillies have the fewest CS in absolute numbers while being 5th in the league in steals. Not bad.

I'd like to see how many extra runs the steals might generate, but I do not have the time to run through it right now. Any takers?

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 6, 2007 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: All Your Stolen Base Are Belong to Us
It appears that the Phils are having an historic season with respect to stolen base %. Baseball Prospectus had an article about the teams with the highest stolen base %. As of 2004, the record is 84.15%, set by the 1994 Orioles.

by Celebre Twins on Jul 8, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: All Your Stolen Base Are Belong to Us
Jimy Williams is going to be the next manager. Joy!

by FTN414 on Jul 5, 2007 10:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Because someone has to say it
Somebody set us up the three-run bomb!

by gr on Jul 5, 2007 11:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Because someone has to say it
what you say, chollie?

(it's hard to stop once this train gets goin')

by gr on Jul 6, 2007 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: All Your Stolen Base Are Belong to Us
Actually it seems that Jimy has done a decent job of managing thus far, in those chances he has gotten to after Charlie has gotten himself ejected early. I seem to remember one game in particular when Williams did NOT pull Burrell in the late innings of a game and he came back with a big hit to tie up the game...does anybody know where I can find a list of Manuel ejections to try and find what game that was?

And re: Lopes, so far so good. Now if only they could do something about Steve Smith!

by das411 on Jul 6, 2007 3:21 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: All Your Stolen Base Are Belong to Us
I was pretty worried when I read before the season that Lopes wanted Victorino to run more, and I was in agony when Shane made that out at third in one of the first games of the season. But it seems fairly clear now that this team understands the importannce of efficiency-not-quantity when it comes to stealing bases, and that's pretty cool.

by Seth on Jul 6, 2007 8:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Success %
I think the actual statistical % at which stealing becomes a positive run producer is a fraction above 70%, which is actually significantly lower for especially prolific base-stealers than 75%.... Is my memory faulty? Any sources?

by Alon on Jul 6, 2007 8:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Success %
The break even percentage for beneficial base stealing varies with the situation too.  A guy who gets thrown out for the first out of an inning probably hurts you more than a guy getting thrown out at 2B with two outs.

Teams that run and manage to avoid more double plays by doing so also get a benefit from their moving the runner that doesn't show up in a straight forward evaluation.

Anyway, there is a study in Baseball Between the Numbers (What if Rickey Henderson had Pete Incaviglia's Legs?).  One interesting thing is that the break even point varies from year to year based on the run scoring environment (caught stealing hurts more when more runs are being scored in the league in a given year).  

A stolen base also becomes more valueable based on the run differential and inning.  Dave Roberts stolen base vs. the Yanks in the playoffs was much more valuable than most.  

by smitty on Jul 7, 2007 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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