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Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?

[Also posted at HTM]

King Felix is going to have to wait in line, it just ain't his turn.  King Cole Hamels has had his say, and he says that Felix Hernandez just isn't worthy of the `King' moniker...Cole's gonna take it for himself.

Star-divide

 The numbers won't lie baby:

Felix:


    * 4-4,  4.11 ERA  1.45 WHIP  .295 opponent avg
    * 76.2 IP,  78 Ks, 22 BB, 8 homers
    * 9.16 K per 9,  3.55 K:BB ratio, 2.55 GB/FB ratio

Cole:

    * 10-4, 3.72 ERA  1.21 WHIP  .254 opponent avg
    * 118.2 IP, 124 Ks, 29 BB, 20 homers
    * 9.40 K per 9,  4.28 K:BB ratio, 0.95 GB/FB ratio

OK, so Cole is better in every stat possible except for homers given up and ground ball/fly ball ratio, and those obviously correlate to one another.  Cole's been slightly better in every other category.  But then you look at their BABIPs and the image gets cloudier.  Basically, this stat considers the  batting average on balls put into play, and the theory behind it holds that balls hit into play (excluding homers) are largely out of the pitcher's hands; it's luck.  This doesn't differentiate between screaming line drives and lazy pop flies, but it's still proven to be a fairly decent stat.  The higher it is, the less lucky the pitcher's been, and the average is about .290.

    * Cole: .304
    * Felix: .375

Uh oh.  This isn't looking good for Cole.  Felix has been extremely unlucky, and no doubt this partly has to do with where he pitches half his games (Safeco is HUGE according to Wheels).  Balls fall in front of outfielders far more often there than in Citizen's Bank Park, but that's the tradeoff one makes for less homers.  In any event, Felix's numbers are likely to improve as the season goes along, provided he pitches in a similar way to how he has thus far.  Cole's been much closer to the average for balls in play, and so his output is likely to be far more in line with what he's already done.

So who to dethrone?  Well, neither.  Felix missed a couple start, is still younger by 2 years, and has been fairly unlucky with balls in play.   Cole and Felix are both Kings awaiting their thrones.

But hell, Cole has a cool website.  He wins!

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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Re: Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?
Yeah, I think they're both pretty damn good.

What's kind of interesting is that if one had asked at the beginning of 2006 who was the riskier proposition in terms of health, everyone would have answered, "Cole." That's much less clear now... though risk is always inherent with young pitchers anyway.

If Hernandez does fall victim to the Mariners Curse (all the great arms they've seen get blown to bits from about 1997 onward), there won't be an obvious scapegoat. He's 92nd on BP's Pitcher Abuse Points list, and hasn't thrown more than 111 in any game this season.

by dajafi on Jul 6, 2007 12:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?
TINSTAAPP, right?

Tangentially, I think there should be another related term - TINSTAACR ("pitching prospect" replaced by "consistent reliever").  Have you seen Ryan Franklin's stats recently?  Unbelievable for the Cards this year - 1.29 ERA, 0.83 WHIP.  Good for him it got him a two year contract extension.  I'm betting it's bad for the Cardinals though.  Why?  TINSTAACR.

by David S. Cohen on Jul 6, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?
On raw talent alone, Hernandez gets the edge. He's extremely unique, in that he has dominant groundball tendencies while also striking out a lot of hitters. However, his mechanics are poor, and his injury earlier this year is probably an indication of something bigger.

by FTN414 on Jul 6, 2007 1:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?
Yeah, Felix was certainly injured early in the year and he might not be fully recovered yet.  I saw him pitch in June vs. the Orioles and he was hit very hard.  He was lucky to escape with only four runs allowed in 5 2/3 IP.  His velocity was down and his command was way off.

He came back a couple of starts later and was brilliant, throwing very hard again.  He hasn't been very consistent after his brilliant start of the season.  

As James points out, the poor mechanics may very well get him before he even has much of a career.

by smitty on Jul 6, 2007 3:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?
If Cole got to start half of his games in Safeco though, imagine all of the cheap CBP homers he would no longer give up!

by das411 on Jul 6, 2007 4:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?
Of the top of my head, I think Hamels has given up just as many HR on the road as he does at home. He'd still have a high total, maybe not quite as many.

by FTN414 on Jul 6, 2007 5:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?
10 HR in 55 IP at home, 10 HR in 63 IP away

by pacino on Jul 6, 2007 5:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?
Does this mean that some of those homeruns weren't CBP aided?  

by jonk on Jul 7, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?
pacino everyone, pacino.

by FTN414 on Jul 6, 2007 7:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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