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Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats

If you've been following closely this season, you've noticed that Pat Burrell rarely finishes a game he starts. Many of us let out a sigh (or worse) when he's removed from a relatively close game in the 6th or 7th inning, fearing that our gascan carrying bullpen will cough up the lead and thrust Burrell's defensive caddy into action with the lumber. So, I decided to take a look at all of the instances in which Burrell has departed early and how it's affected our team. All of the details below the fold...

Star-divide

First, the basics.

Complete Games Played: 38
Games Replaced Early: 73
Used as a pinch hitter: 10

First, let's take a moment to appreciate that....he's only played 38 complete games all season. Staggering really. Now, on to the goodness.

Burrell has departed from 56 games in which the team  had the lead. The Phillies are 49-7 in those games. Burrell has left with the team trailing in 13 games (2-11 record), and with the team tied in 4 games, in which they ended up going 2-2.

His replacements, overall, have posted this line

49 AB, .204/.277/.367

6 singles, 1 double, 2 triples, 1 HR, and 5 BB

In the games where he's come out early and the team lost, his replacements have been even worse

1/8, 0 BB and 0 extra base hits. The only hit came from Michael Bourn on 7/26 against Washington.

Well, that's the offensive aspect, but what about the defense? In the 73 games where Burrell has come out, his replacements have racked up a total of 37 putouts, with 0 assists. In the games the team had the lead and lost, 4 assists in 7 games, and 2 of those came in one game, July 6th at Colorado by Bourn.

If you calculate Burrell's season averages and add in his missing 49 AB, he'd be at 24 HR and 82 RBI. It's impossible to say "taking him out cost us X games", but Manuel should not be putting the team in that situation, especially with our bullpen being what it is.

UPDATE: I forgot to include this information in my original reply, but I also noted in what inning Burrell was removed in the games he's come out early

6th inning: 7 times

7th inning: 26 times

8th inning: 24 times

9th inning: 14 times

10th or later: 2 times

0 recs  |  Comment 27 comments

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Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Does this also account for possible other moves AFTER he was taken out?  Just this past weekend he was double switched out and Nunez was batting third and then they pinch hit for Nunez with Coste.  I know it would be hard to add that type of stuff in, but it is a cascading effect.  Not to mention other instances that the replacement couldn't be used as well.

by jonk on Aug 28, 2007 6:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Yes, it includes those AB's.

by FTN414 on Aug 28, 2007 9:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Bingo, if the team had even an average bullpen, you could almost justify it, but knowing how incendiary your relief pitching is, you'd think you'd want to keep your absolute best offensive players on the field, especially in one of the least-demanding defensive positions on the field.

Also, I could see removing him later in the game -- the 9th inning maybe -- but these constant, repeated substitutions in the 6th and 7th innings are really hurting this team's ability to score runs, while only marginally improving it defensively.

by WholeCamels on Aug 28, 2007 11:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Yes, the ninth inning would be fine. The sixth is nuts.

I must say, however, that to the naked eye, Burrell looks way slower this year than he was in the past. He was never a great fielder or anything, but it sure seems like he's suddenly gotten a whole lot worse.

by taco pal on Aug 28, 2007 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
For what it's worth, FRAA agrees with you. He'd always been about average until this year, but so far in 2007 he's been 15 runs below average, a number so bad that it actually makes me wonder if Charlie's got it right.

by Seth on Aug 28, 2007 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
It's funny. Burrell had already acquired such a bad reputation for fielding when he was in the minors that when he made it to the bigs, my first reaction to him was: hey, he's really not that bad! Now, I'm feeling something similar in reverse.

by taco pal on Aug 28, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Bake, I updated the original post with the actual inning he left the game. 33 times he's been taken out before the 8th inning :(

by FTN414 on Aug 28, 2007 11:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
And if they're interested in giving him rest by not forcing him to play nine innings every day, I'd rather they keep him out of the starting lineup once or twice a week, which would at least leave a potent bat on the bench for pinch hitting duties in late, high-leverage situations.

I don't see how playing 6-7 innings instead of the full nine would provide sufficient rest with regard to protecting from the worsening of chronic injuries.

by WholeCamels on Aug 28, 2007 12:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
This seems especially apt given that Werth has mutated into SuperWerth. One could make a case that the Phils have five outfielders who could start for a contender, including the currently injured Bourn and the currently half-strength Victorino.

Unfortunately, roster expansion probably will mean that Cholly has more options to serve as Burrell's Legs: Roberson, maybe Moran?

by dajafi on Aug 28, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Burrell's FRAR, by year
  1. +6
  2. +13
  3. +12
  4. +13
  5. +7
  6. +6
  7. -8
A major dropoff. Then again, FRAR uses total putouts in their equation, I believe, and his putout number has been reduced due to reduced chances. I'd think that has something to do with his lower number.

by FTN414 on Aug 28, 2007 12:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
It's got to prorate by innings in the field, right? Otherwise, bench players who come in as defensive replacements would all have horrible numbers.

by taco pal on Aug 28, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
I don't know if it prorates by innings, it probably does, I was just thinking out loud.

by FTN414 on Aug 28, 2007 12:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
I'm pretty much sure that it does prorate by innings.

I think FRAR/FRAA are done very sloppily and chances do play a role.  Last year, the Phillies had two bizarre changes in those fielding numbers-- everyone on the left side of the field saw their FRAR/FRAA shoot up, and everone on the right side of the field saw their FRAR/FRAA go down.  This was especially pronounced for players who played more during the second half of the season.  Only Rollins seems to have maintained similar fielding numbers.

by Matt Swartz on Aug 28, 2007 1:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Amazing that he was drafted as a third baseman, isn't it?

by das411 on Aug 29, 2007 3:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Not necessarily. You don't need speed to be good at 3B. You just need good reflexes, consistency, and a strong arm. Burrell at least has a strong arm.

It's ironic that the Phils went out of their way to move him to left now that 3B is the weakest spot in the lineup. It's all Scott Rolen's fault.

by taco pal on Aug 29, 2007 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
I can't recall the scouting reports, but did people really think when he was drafted that he'd be able to stay at third? The Phils put him at first base as soon as he got to Clearwater, and given his college career, it seems like a "his bat will play anywhere" kind of pick.

by Seth on Aug 29, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Yeah, I don't remember either. According to Bill Conlin, Burrell wouldn't have been a "butcher", but who knows.

by taco pal on Aug 29, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I seem to remember ...
I recall reading somewhere that during Burrell's days at Miami, a scout was asked how Burrell was as a fielder. He replied, "He's a great hitter."

by phatj on Aug 29, 2007 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Good article. I've always been of the opinion that a run saved is more valuable than a run scored, but I don't even think that line of thinking can justify taking Burrell out of games so early.

From HardballTimes.com's Revized Zone Ratings (RZR):

Werth: .905 in 108 innings, 9 Out of Zone (OOZ) plays
Bourn: .884 in 185 innings, 8 Out of Zone plays
Burrell: .779 in 797 innings, 16 Out of Zone plays
Dobbs: .778 in 82 innings, 4 Out of Zone plays

I don't know how many runs you save by using Werth or Bourn defensively over Burrell, but I'm pretty sure it's not even close to replacing Burrell's offensive runs created (76).

--

On a side note, I read that Marcus Hayes is being relieved of his Phillies-covering duties after the season. Is this true? If so, is there any legitimate article on the Internet about it?

by Baerwcb on Aug 29, 2007 12:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Sorry for the double-post, but I would just like to point out that Burrell's 7.6 runs created per game ranks 11th in the National League, and, contrary to what Marcus Hayes says, Burrell is tied with the great Carlos Lee in that respect.

by Baerwcb on Aug 29, 2007 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Often Burrell is replaced by a pinch runner after getting on base late in the game.  It would be interesting to see how much benefit the Phils get from improved baserunning in these cases.  

Last night's game is a good example.  After replacing Burrell as a pinch runner, Victorino stole second and went to third on an error to get into position to score the tying run on Rowand's dribbler.  

by JimQ on Aug 29, 2007 2:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
I remember an article on Baseball Prospectus last year or the year before that listed Burrell as one of the worst base runners in baseball (taking all aspects of baserunning into account).  I think he was either first or second, with Thome the other one in the top-two tandem.

by David S. Cohen on Aug 29, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Burrell and Howard are among the most productive batters in MLB, since the All Star Game, while gumming it up on defense and on the bases.  How much does THIS cost the team by way of give-back?

by Grass Cutter on Aug 29, 2007 9:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
I'm glad he didn't lose a late inning at bat today!
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Aug 30, 2007 6:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
clearly, the solution is for him to only hit home runs. no pesky pinch running problems!

by perfectdepth on Aug 30, 2007 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Lost At Bats
Unless it is Shane or Werth.

by jonk on Aug 30, 2007 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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