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Full Circle

The Phillies had six starters in March. Now they're going to have six starters in September. It's like nothing has happened since...

Okay, maybe not. The only guy who's made it all the way through is Jamie Moyer, and since Cole Hamels and Adam Eaton are members of both sextets, we'll put them to the side right now as well. That means the Phils have swapped out Brett Myers, Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber--who entered 2007 with a combined 705 career starts and 296 wins--for Kyle Lohse, Kyle Kendrick, and J.D. Durbin. Before this season, that trio had 164 starts and 54 wins--all but one start of which was Lohse.

Kendrick is probably the biggest single reason why the Phillies are still relevant to the playoff conversation, and Durbin and Lohse have helped as well. But soon it's going to be decision time; either the team will go with a six-man rotation--which I suspect might be totally unprecedented in a pennant race--or someone is getting sent to the bullpen. We know it won't be Hamels, the ace of the staff. And I don't think it will be Lohse, because he's pitched well since joining the team and has pennant-race experience. (I'm not arguing that this means anything; I just believe the team thinks it does.)

Star-divide

But among the other four guys, there's a fair debate to be had.  You can make a case for or against any of them. Kendrick and Durbin have been the best of the group this month. But Kendrick is about to pass his previous career high in innings, and the combination of fatigue and his lack of swing-and-miss stuff could prove telling as he faces teams seeing him for the second and third times. Durbin's command remains spotty, he isn't striking many guys out either, and of the four he's probably the most likely to be effective in a relief role.

Gramps Moyer might have saved his job with a winning performance against the Mets Wednesday night. I'll be honest: I was only able to watch the first two innings of the game, and he was getting cuffed around badly enough in the early going that I thought there was no way he'd make it through the 4th, let alone finish six innings. But he did, and if there is a case to be made for experience as an input to winning, that has to be it. Moyer has now pitched 164.2 IP this season, which is a lot for a 44 year-old but not so much for a guy who has thrown at least 200 innings in eight of the last nine seasons. At the least, I'm less sure he's cooked than I was six hours ago.

Then there's Adam Eaton. I think it's fair to say that if Eaton had been bombed by the Mets in his return Tuesday night, he'd be gone from the rotation. Eaton brought a career 5-0 record and 1.89 ERA against the Mets into the game, and he was good enough to earn consideration going forward. But I'd still be inclined to pull him.

A look at Eaton's career ERA against each of the Phils' remaining opponents, aside from the Mets, might explain why:

Florida (6.53, 6 starts)
Atlanta (6.14, 8 starts)
Colorado (6.29, 24 starts)
St. Louis (6.82, 7 starts)
Washington (4.80, 5 starts)

That just ain't right. Eaton's ill-starred deal still has two years and a bit more than $17 million to go. That should bring enough pain that there's no particular need to inflict him on the fans in what should be an exciting final month of the regular season.  

0 recs | Comment 6 comments

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Re: Full Circle
The Phillies transferring Myers to the bullpen was as idiotic as Atlanta doing the same with John Smoltz.  We all know how the Braves have been bashed for winning just one World Series while being in contention 15 years in a 16-year stretch.  The primary reason for this "failure" is the extremely ill-advised dropping of arguably the best #3 starting rotation pitcher in baseball over a multi-year period, to a lesser-impact (albeit closer) role in the mix.

Myers is in the pen because of the short-sighted signing of Gordon, who needed to be covered, starting a year ago this month, when he (predictably) hit the career brick wall.  So the Gordon signing triggered: A. a weaker bullpen, starting in the second year of his three-year deal; and, B. led to a weaker starting rotation, once the Phillies derricked their ace starter to bullpen pergatory.

Myers, recall, was asked to take on the added pressure of the role change at a time when he was also burdened with a physical/injury recovery challenge, plus distracting legal ramifications - as though he didn't have enough on his table, already.

The Phillies have compounded their starting rotation problems with this tampering and gimmicry with their own starting staff.  Just think, at times when Hamels is healthy, this club could be leading off the rotation with a Myers-Hamels one-two punch.  So that right now the club, has no lights-out starter at the top of the rotation.  

The Phillies get what they deserve all too often, the fall-out from their own futility.

by Grass Cutter on Aug 30, 2007 4:30 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Full Circle
I go back and forth on whether I agree with your basic premise here, but in the case Smoltz (whom I dislike) and the Braves (whom I detest), they made the move for health reasons. If you remember, Smoltz missed an entire season, and when he came back it was determined that he would be at less risk closing than starting. If the choice is between, not Smoltz starting and Smoltz closing, but Smoltz closing versus no Smoltz, I think the Braves chose wisely.

by dajafi on Aug 30, 2007 10:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Full Circle
I disagree that moving Myers to the 'pen was idiotic.

Since becoming a reliever, he has pitched 34.1 innings with an ERA of just 2.88 and only allowed an OPS of .599.

And at the time they made Myers switch roles, they had 6 legitimate starting pitchers, and a slapstick bullpen. 2 + 2 = 4, so they moved Myers to the 'pen, where he's been nearly flawless (one blown save).

As for what the postseason rotation should be -- don't teams usually use a 3-man rotation in a 5-game series, and a 4-man rotation in a 7-game series?

Hamels is obviously in, so is Lohse, and so is Moyer (I couldn't imagine him coming out of the 'pen). That's fine for a five-game series.

For a seven-game series, it's a toss-up between Eaton, Kendrick, and Durbin for the final slot. And personally, I'd give it to Kendrick because he can definitely keep the ball on the ground.

by Baerwcb on Aug 30, 2007 10:10 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Full Circle
I've been a huge critic of his all year, but I'd give Eaton one more start.  If he shows signs of more progress, like Tuesday night, I'd keep him.  The team ERAs you posted are small sample size things that are more interesting than they are useful.  If he is recovered from his "ineffective arm syndrome," then we should use him.

by David S. Cohen on Aug 30, 2007 11:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Full Circle
Good point re Smotz's health.  Let's agree that his dropping out of the rotation for valid, or for weak philosophical reasons cost that team an extra championship or two.  Leading off the post-season with a rotation of Maddux - Glavine - Smoltz was really hard to match up with for opponents.

I don't care how many starters the Phillies had - dropping your ace out of the rotation at any time is suicidal.  And Lieber, for Christ sake, no option at all, was one of the six.  Give me a break - you want Myers in the pen to accomodate Lieber in the rotation???

by Grass Cutter on Aug 30, 2007 3:12 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: Full Circle
Maybe you're right about the Smoltz move, valid or not, costing them additional titles. I just know that the Braves' early-round playoff exits became one of my favorite annual October events...

Give me a break - you want Myers in the pen to accomodate Lieber in the rotation???

No, but if the choice is Myers starting/Lieber closing (or Alf, or anyone other than Gordon, whom they already knew was hurt) versus Lieber starting/Myers closing, that second option is better. It's easy to forget now, but Lieber had stretches in all three of his Phillies seasons where he was really, really good. His problem was always the one awful inning in which he'd allow five runs. If not for the injury, which was flukish, maybe he would have corrected whatever was causing that, maybe not... but given his September track record I wouldn't mind having him in the rotation right now.

At any rate, this six-man issue is going to be around for awhile. I didn't see the Lohse part of today's game, but it doesn't sound like he was very good. So now it could be argued that we have Hamels, assuming he's healthy, and five questionable guys.

by dajafi on Aug 30, 2007 5:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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