Reasons to Be Unhappy

by David S. Cohen on Sep 13, 2007 2:17 PM EDT in News

In the last two days, the Phillies playoff chances have gone from 26.5% to 11.9%. They are now statistically irrelevant in the NL East race (0.5% chance, compared with a 17.6% chance after sweeping the Mets). And all four of the competitive NL West teams have a better chance than the Phils at taking the Wild Card (Diamondbacks 19.0%, Padres 41.1%, Dodgers 12.9%, and Rockies 12.9%).

Graphically, the NL East race has looked like this all year. The trend is not good for the Phillies (in red). (Click on the image for a clearer graph.)

(Thanks to Baseball Prospectus for the data and graph.)

They have one more game against the Rockies tonight. They need to reverse the trend immediately.

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Re: Reasons to Be Unhappy

Rationally, I'm thinking they're dead in the water; Francis throttles them tonight, they get swept (or win one) at Shea this weekend, and by then whatever happens after is irrelevant.

In my gut, I feel like they have one charge remaining, which will get them to the brink before they fall just short like every other year.

Either way, it's hard to see how they get in.

by dajafi on Sep 13, 2007 5:32 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Reasons to Be Unhappy

The thing is, this offense can carry awful pitchers for 10 games or so. That may be all that we need.

by jonk on Sep 13, 2007 6:56 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Reasons to Be Unhappy

The Phillies aren't dead yet. A game and half back with 16 to go isn't outrageous. The schedule isn't awful, though it's more on the road than I'd like. The MO for the last few years is to choke painfully closer to the end.

I think we have some excitement left, plus I'm not convinced that this team won't somehow find a way to get it done. They are capable of bludgeoning their way to an 8-2 or 9-1 stretch.

Even going 1-2 vs. the Mets doesn't do 'em in. After the Mets, there isn't much on the schedule in terms of quality opponents. I'd settle for a 1-2 split. If they win 2 (or, god forbid, sweep again), it's gravy. I have a feeling that this wild card run (for the Phillies) is going at least 160 games. Could go the distance.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 14, 2007 1:00 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Reasons to Be Unhappy

I disagree, I think they usually choked at the beginning of the month, like they have this month, then played great baseball to the end just to watch the other WC team play even greater baseball.

by jonk on Sep 14, 2007 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions