Overall Picture

by David S. Cohen on Sep 27, 2007 11:22 AM EDT in News

Right now, without counting the Braves, who are virtually out of it, and ignoring the battle in the Central, where no team will get the Wild Card spot, there are 5 teams in the NL fighting for 3 playoff spots. I really like looking at the overall standings for the NL, because it shows you just how bunched up everything is:

NATIONAL	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	STRK	L10
Arizona	88	70	0.557	-	696	715	Lost 3	5-5
San Diego	87	71	0.551	1	709	634	Won 2	6-4
NY Mets	87	71	0.551	1	786	732	Lost 3	4-6
Philadelphia	86	72	0.544	2	872	812	Won 1	7-3
Colorado	86	72	0.544	2	824	738	Won 10	10-0

It's very likely (although not necessarily the case) that the top three teams in Sunday evening's version of this chart will be going to the playoffs. Right now, that would leave the Rockies and the Phillies on the outside looking in, but they are the teams with the most momentum (for whatever that's worth) based on how they've been playing over the last 10 games.

In this five team race for three spots, the Phillies and the Mets are at a slight advantage because they are two teams fighting for the NL East spot (plus the Wild Card) compared to the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Rockies being three teams fighting for the NL West spot (plus the Wild Card).

The Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report puts the teams' playoff chances as follows (with overall odds first and division and wild card chances, respectively, in parenthesis):

1. Mets - 86% (77/8)
2. Diamondbacks - 83% (62/21)
3. Padres - 57% (22/35)
4. Phillies - 42% (22/19)
5. Rockies - 32% (15/17)

What's great about this is that the Phillies fan dream scenario is entirely possible: the Phillies could end the season with the best record in the NL and the Mets could fail to make the playoffs. I'll take simply the Phillies making the playoffs, but dreaming ain't bad either.

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Re: Overall Picture

It's to the point that, in certain scenarios, I'm not sure what to root for. Arizona could remove the threat from Colorado this weekend, particularly now that Brandon Webb is pitching Friday night. But if the Padres lose tonight, and the Diamondbacks take a two-game lead into the weekend, maybe they let up just a bit and the scalding-hot Rockies take them out. So does that mean I should root for the Padres tonight? I don't think so, but...

Either way, it seems like most years we're all-but-dead by Thursday of the final week, so this is progress of a sort.

by dajafi on Sep 27, 2007 3:35 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Overall Picture

I guess the easiest thing for the Phillies and the simplest thing to keep track of for Phillies fans is to root for the Diamondbacks to win out and the rest of the teams to lose out.

All in all, if the Phillies win out, I think they're in the playoffs. It would take take the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Mets all going at least 3-1 for a Phillies 4-0 run not to mean making the playoffs, and I don't think all of them are going to do that. Even at 3-1, the Padres and Mets would be forced into a one-game playoff against the Phils.

So, no more losses. That's the key.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 27, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Overall Picture

How do they figure only 22% for the division? 1 game back and almost identical records. To say that the Phils are 5:1 underdogs to win the division (does this include a tie?) seems a bit extreme.

by jonk on Sep 27, 2007 5:04 PM EDT reply actions