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A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade

I'm guessing that most Phillies fans took the news of the Cardinals-Blue Jays trade that sent Scott Rolen north of the border with some degree of satisfaction. Rolen, of course, is notorious in Philadelphia for his fights with manager Larry Bowa, and his statements disdain for the organization and the fans on his way out of town in 2002 and periodically thereafter. His gushing delight at playing for St. Louis--or, as he called it, "Heaven"--has long grated on Phillies diehardsl there's more than a little schadenfreude to be enjoyed from the fact that Rolen's relationship with Tony LaRussa went so far south that he's willing to brave the artificial turf of Toronto just to get away.

But it's the other guy in the trade whom I'm thinking about. Troy Glaus isn't the defender Rolen is, but his right-handed power has produced 95 home runs in the last three seasons even as a series of nagging injuries kept Glaus on the sidelines for 70 games over that span. (Yes, he was involved in steroid allegations--but that was during his Angels tenure, which ended in 2004. He's clean now.) Glaus has a reasonable contract--he's owed $24 million for the next two years.

Why weren't the Phillies in on him? I guess it could be argued that they didn't have a match; obviously they had no third baseman to send back, unless Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi has an as-yet unannounced love for Wes Helms. But there could have been a deal with a third team, and I for one think Rolen is a worse health risk going forward than Glaus: his back won't hold up well on that turf, and this is after missing about 170 games over the last three seasons. His contract is also more onerous than the one Toronto is shedding: Rolen is owed: three years, $36 million. That could be a lot of dead money sitting in the trainer's office.

Maybe this is unfair on my part: it's more than possible that Ricciardi figured Rolen's upside was worth the risk, or that the Phillies considered Glaus's health issues and decided he didn't merit serious pursuit. But while Pat Gillick and Ruben Amaro blithely prepare to go into 2008 with the less than formidable Helms/Dobbs/Bruntlett job-share at the hot corner--or ponder whether to ink the out-tastic Pedro Feliz--it's frustrating to see a legit 30-homer solution like Glaus change uniforms without any indication the Phils so much as nibbled.

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Who could the Phils trade that the Jays would want
Unless we are willing to further strip the farm system of better prospects, it would have to be something like Helms or Dobbs plus Madson and Jaramillo -- an offering which though rather thin on talent would benefit the Jays in salary relief.  But the Jays think they can contend this year, and I can't see them accepting a downgrade from Glaus in their daily (well, kinda)lineup.  Obviously, salary is not the issue, since they took on the full weight of Rolen's deal.

by Chris R on Jan 15, 2008 1:13 PM EST reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
We just had nothing to give for Glaus except for pitching in the minors.

I think our best bets are Inge and Crede as we head into Spring Training.

I also think that Dobbs has earned another shot, he is young and Helms could bounce back a bit, we will still lead the league in runs, getting Inge or Crede just makes our bench that much better by placing Dobbs there as the Lefty pinch hitter with men on base.

by SirAlden on Jan 15, 2008 2:06 PM EST reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Honestly, I don't think Glaus would be that much better than the Helms/Dobbs platoon we have. I peg Helms having a better season in '08 and Dobbs to produce around the same.

I guess a Glaus-to-Phillies move would've also produced the benefit of dealing Helms for a reliever and/or pushing a nobody like So Taguchi off the roster.

Do the Phillies even have $13 million available?

Either way, I don't think he's worth it. We don't need more offense. I'd rather see the Phillies either keep that money available for an in-season trade or spend it on another starting pitcher. There are worse ways to spend $10 million than on a 3-year/$30 million deal for Kyle Lohse.

by Baerwcb on Jan 15, 2008 3:45 PM EST reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I wish I shared your optimism on Dobbs; I think 2007 will prove to have been his career year. And while I think Helms will be better than he was last year, I don't think that combined they'll come close to what Glaus is likely to do, even if you figure he'll miss a quarter of the season.

As for "not that much better," Glaus is a career 121 OPS+ hitter and is regarded as average or slightly above defensively. Helms and Dobbs are both butchers with the glove; Helms' career OPS+ is 96 (68 last year), and Dobbs is 87 (96 last year). Glaus is superior, and it's not close.

I think the budget and "what could they have dealt?" arguments are totally valid, but it requires near-opaque rose-colored glasses to see Dobbs/Helms as even close to Glaus.

by dajafi on Jan 15, 2008 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Well, neither of us can say definitively what's going to happen in the future. I guess I am optimistic about Helms/Dobbs.

Here's what all of the projections have for the three third basemen (from FanGraphs)...

Greg Dobbs

Bill James: .335/.416 (.751)
CHONE: .328/.409 (.736)
Marcel: .331/.435 (.765)

Wes Helms

Bill James: .334/.430 (.764)
CHONE: .332/.421 (.753)
Marcel: .335/.440 (.775)

Troy Glaus

Bill James: .360/.490 (.850)
CHONE: .364/.490 (.854)
Marcel: .356/.479 (.835)

I agree with you that a .100 difference in OPS is nothing to sneeze at. The gap between Helms/Dobbs and Glaus is bigger than I thought.

I'd still rather see that money spent on pitching, though.

by Baerwcb on Jan 15, 2008 6:48 PM EST reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Thanks for posting those numbers. I'll actually be pretty pleased if Helms/Dobbs combines for a .750 OPS... still doesn't take the defense into account, but then again, they'll combine to cost less than a quarter of what Glaus will pull down in '08. And one probably can make the argument that the 100 points of OPS plus the defensive gap isn't worth an extra $9 million.

The opportunity cost of not getting more pitching help is a legit point too. I'm just not convinced there's a good use for that money currently available. Maybe Lohse; I go back and forth on that one.

by dajafi on Jan 15, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
In theory, if you just pocket the $9 million this year, you can sign someone to an $18 million deal next year. I know that's an oversimplification of how things really work, but if there are no really good options out there this year, then there are no good options.

by taco pal on Jan 15, 2008 11:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Weren't the Phillies initially pleased with what they saw out of Kris Benson? What made them sour on him?

I think signing Benson would be a great low-risk, high-reward move, and I can't think of a reason why they wouldn't at least offer him a one-year incentive-laden contract with mutual options.

Bartolo Colon is another low-risk, high-reward type of pitcher the Phillies should be looking at. According to Ruben Amaro, his "overall health" is a concern, despite the guy winning the Cy Young award as recently as 2005.

I will cry if Pat Gillick ends up signing Pedro "71.2% outs" Feliz.

by Baerwcb on Jan 16, 2008 9:04 AM EST reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I have not seen any reports that the Phils "soured" on Benson. last I heard (Olney, 1/12) they were still watching him pitch and considering signing him.

on Colon, reportedly several teams, including the Mets, don't think his arm's in good shape. scouts say he hasn't topped 90 in winter ball.

by perfectdepth on Jan 16, 2008 9:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I know I read somewhere that the Phillies lost interest in Benson... I couldn't find it rummaging around Rotoworld or MLB.com's Hot Stove stuff.

I hadn't heard anything about Colon, that certainly is concerning then, if he can't get any velocity on his fastball and it now makes sense why the Phillies have backed off.

Thanks.

by Baerwcb on Jan 16, 2008 9:34 AM EST reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Feel like I saw somewhere a couple days back that they're still potentially in on Benson.

The rumor this morning though is that they're seriously talking with Lohse again. Presumably that would put the kibosh on Benson.

by dajafi on Jan 16, 2008 10:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I read that the Phillies no longer have much interest in Kris Benson.  They did like what they saw but do not feel he will be ready to contribute anything the first couple months of the season.
This is from 2 mailbag's ago on phillies.com

The team's interest has cooled somewhat. General manager Pat Gillick said the organization felt Benson was "still a couple months" away, meaning that it was too early to get a proper gauge on how he was doing in his recovery from right shoulder surgery. He's still a possibility, just not a very likely one, since they've subsequently went in a different direction with Chad Durbin.

by schrifty on Jan 16, 2008 10:54 AM EST reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I'm not sure how Mandel's comments on 1/7 mesh with Olney's comments on 1/12 that (paraphrased from MLBTR):

"The Phils may send people to watch Kris Benson throw next week. I believe this would be the second time they've observed him, so maybe it's getting serious."

I've never thought that Mandel had really great sources, but Olney's not really plugged into Philly. so who knows.

by perfectdepth on Jan 16, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Also, I'd hope the phillies and Benson would consider a shot at the bullpen if nothing else.  He has never come out of the bullpen but, coming back from injury maybe thats what he needs to strengthen back up for next year.  He also is a nice groundball pitcher which is perfect for this park.  Lastly, if by june one of our starters is struggling, Benson may be healthy enough to step in to his natural role.

by schrifty on Jan 16, 2008 11:00 AM EST reply actions  

Benson to show Phils his fastball, wife, this week
...so it is written in this blog (which also plumps for the acquisition of Feliz):
http://phillies.scout.com/2/720314.html
Actually no mention of Anna, dammit.

by Chris R on Jan 16, 2008 11:10 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Benson to show Phils his fastball, wife, this
"The former Giants third baseman has been a consistent 20-plus home run hitter for the past four seasons but was regularly stationed in the middle of the order in San Francisco. This undoubtedly contributed to his low base on balls totals and hurt his OBP. This undoubtedly contributed to his low base on balls totals and hurt his OBP. ... This would probably cause his OBP to rise to a more acceptable plus .300 number."

this is just flat out wrong. Feliz hit mostly seventh the last two years. his actual (as opposed to theoretical) walk rate lower in the order is worse than higher. and there's quite literally nothing on the face of the earth that could cause Feliz's OBP to go north of .295 or so.

(also, Cincinnati, Texas, and the Mets all had 20+ HR from the 8th spot in the lineup last year, which means that "the only 20-plus home run hitting threat in baseball hitting eighth in the batting order" is not really all that impressive.)

by perfectdepth on Jan 16, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Benson to show Phils his fastball, wife, this
The author is known to some of us. He's a very nice man who has a long and colorful history of being spectacularly wrong about a great many things.

That said, it's possible that Feliz would improve his OBP with the Phillies. With him in mind, I looked at some numbers the other night of players' on-base percentages before and after joining the Charlie Manuel-era Phillies, and in a lot of cases this has happened--whether because of an improved walk rate (Rod Barajas), higher average (David Dellucci) or both (Aaron Rowand). I'll probably post that in a couple days.

by dajafi on Jan 16, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Benson did not break 70 mph in his trial, his arm was fluid, Colon has not broken 90 and has stopped pitching in the Dominican.

Sign them now? Silly.

by SirAlden on Jan 17, 2008 6:17 AM EST reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
So, Moyer hasn't broken 70mph in years ;)

by Homer on Jan 17, 2008 9:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
Isn't another way to look at this to ask whether the Phils should have traded the closest player they have to (equal value of Rolen and Glaus) instead of some package of prospects?

Wouldn't that then have been...Burrell? And a  Burrell for Glaus deal, while perhaps tempting during Pat's annual cold months, doesn't really fill any holes without adding another one, does it?

Unless...when exactly was the last time he played 3B? And with Jenkins, Victorino and Werth in the OF....hmm.....

by das411 on Jan 22, 2008 12:19 AM EST reply actions  

Re: A thought on the Rolen/Glaus trade
I don't believe Toronto had a need for Pat

by Homer on Jan 22, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

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