Rox Girl
Mar 23, 2008 Aug 06, 2008 1857 8313
Hey there, it's me Rox Girl. After being raised by coyotes on the Western Slope, I grew fond of baseballs, howling, tasty sheep and small rodents. Luckily, I've lost the last habit and no longer eat prairie dogs, but I still love baseball and howling.
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Friday Rockpile:
After debacles like yesterday play out, there's just not much left to say. Were the Rockies terrible? Sure. Any worse than they've been earlier this season? Not really. This team doesn't hit new lows anymore than it sort of scoots and bumps along the bottom like some long dead corpse as the tide brings it further out to sea. That the team doesn't know it's dead yet:
"It's tough to lose two games in one day - especially, going into the day, you feel like you can win both of them, gain some ground," Troy Tulowitzki said. "But we dug ourself a hole. Now we're going to have to get back out of it like we've been doing it all year. There is enough time. We're making it tough on ourself, very tough, but there's always time."
is probably some credit to them, but I'm suspecting any signs of life left this season are just the movements caused by crabs or other sea creatures feeding off 2008's cold, lifeless internal organs and not some sign that the Rockies are ready to once again rise from the deep.
The one solace would be that questions for 2009 are answered as we bump along. So far, while I'm more optimistic about the state of our position players than I was with the center field, catcher and second base issues looming for the start of 2008, the rotation still bugs me. The team, and us as fans, would really like to count on Jeff Francis to be a third stable force, but yesterday's start sent some mixed messages in that regard. For four innings he looked like vintage Francis, but for the last two, he looked like his 2008 version. Let's hope that those last two innings were just a glitch in the machine.
I won't be around until the end of tonight's game thread as I'm heading to Lexington for the Tourists game shortly, but Jake Peavy versus Glendon Rusch is just the sort of matchup that fosters my rotation queasiness for next season. While our hope is that Franklin Morales or Jason Hirsh or Greg Reynolds or any combination of the three with maybe even a Jorge De La Rosa thrown in will have learned and developed enough to give us at least some mild hope for down rotation match-ups next year, the fact is that as of right now there are still far too many maybe's and projections that haven't yet translated into their performance this season. Hoping that they will for next season is easy enough, but expecting them to is another matter. Failing that, it's pretty clear that the caliber of fallback starter we will wind up with will be closer to the Rusch/Livan Hernandez level than whatever level it is we as fans aspire to. In other words, our bets are still going to be on the development of our own farm raised young guns than on any outside hired thug, and having been burned by that bet this season, I'm nervous about rolling the dice on it again for 2009.
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Friday Pebble Report:
Colorado Springs: Off
Tulsa: L 1-5
Former Rockies farmhand Zach Parker shut down the Drillers yesterday. Brian Esposito had half of Tulsa's hits with his pair of singles and he scored the only Driller run. Andrew Johnston pitched two scoreless innings in relief, and the two strikeouts to zero walks helps to start reversing a negative ratio in that column. Of course, Johnston's calling card is his GB%, and that remains as high as ever.
Modesto: L 7-9
A's first base/DH prospect Chris Carter hit his 31st homerun of the season last night for the Ports (one of two HR's given up by Nuts starter Esmil Rogers in a poor outing) while our Modesto first base prospect, Michael Paulk, hit his fifth. Paulk also hit a pair of doubles and had a really solid game, so I don't mean to disparage him, it's just that the Rockies system has a glaring need for middle of the lineup run producers, and the contrast when our affiliates go up against teams that legitimately have that makes it kind of discouraging at times.
Fourth round draft pick Chris Dominguez has as good a chance as anybody to fit in that category. He leads the Cape Cod League this summer in homers and is known in Louisville for some mammoth blasts. With the draft signing deadline less than a week away, I really am wishing for some sort of miraculous turnaround on that front, but I wouldn't hold my breath, it seems that the Rockies will be missing out on Dominguez.
Asheville: W 5-1
I really wish more readers would have a chance to watch Robinson Fabian pitch. I got the opportunity to do so last night, and I really don't know if he's going to make it to the majors, but he's a fun pitcher to watch and it won't be for a lack of stuff. He has some sharp movement on a fastball that sits mostly in the 88-92 range according to the Lexington ballpark gun. His secondary offerings are erratic at best and he was somehat lucky that Lexington's a free swinging club. Don't be fooled by the lack of walks, he had fits of wildness as the three HBP's in the box should show. He also has quite a bit of effort to his delivery and seems to me an injury risk. It seems to me that he's eventually a reliever or JDLR type of pitcher that doesn't quite have a secure spot on an MLB roster despite flashing impressive stuff at times if he makes it to the show.
Lars Davis has looked a lot better the last couple of times I've seen him from earlier in the season at the plate. Bo Bowman looked pretty good in the first look I got of him, but I'll give a more complete scouting report of the batters after I see a couple more games this weekend. I'll be watching Shane Lindsay tonight, I'm hoping to see some more dominance from T's pitching.
Tri-City: L 0-2
Jonnathan Aristil has been one of our system's more unlucky pitchers when it comes to run support this season, and the loss he took in yesterday's shutout continued that trend. Aristil has the lowest ERA among DustDevils starters but just one win to show for it thus far. That said, it's not as if he's been the most dominating mound presence this summer, either. After a long absence from the system due to TJ surgery near the beginning of 2007, Zach McClellan started the live game throwing portion of his rehab and pitched a scoreless inning in the loss.
Casper: L 0-1
Speaking of unlucky, Jeff Fischer sort of wrote the book on that early in his professional career, and there was some carryover yesterday as he took the loss despite pitching brilliantly into the sixth inning. Fischer struck out nine and allowed just three hits and a walk. Offensively, the Ghosts just couldn't get anything going, however, as Delta Cleary was the only batter with two hits.
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Game #117: Jimenez vs Perez
Barring a big comeback in the last two innings of game one this afternoon, it looks like we'll need some better mojo for game number two. So let this GameThread be the bearer of better mojo and let's take down this pesky Nationals team, please.
Go Rockies!
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Game #116: Francis vs Bergmann
I'm not exactly sure why the Nationals feel better off with a Francis/Bergmann, Perez/Jimenez card today than the way things were originally scheduled, but that's the way it appears. At any rate, the Rockies need to start showing they're up to a chase in earnest, and a home doubleheader sweep would be a strong play in that regard.
Go Rockies!
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Thursday Morning Rockpile:
Don't trouble yourselves on our account, San Diego, if Jake Peavy wants to pitch against Johan Santana, I say by all means go ahead and let him.
I think the magic words that sell me on Livan Hernandez are in this paragraph:
De La Rosa would give the Rockies a left-hander in the bullpen other than closer Brian Fuentes - as well as a reliever capable of working multiple innings - which would seem to make veteran Kip Wells, who is on a $3.1 million contract, expendable when Hernandez is added to the roster.
Tracy Ringolsby's article indicates that the Rockies are willing to sink more costs into the bottom of the rotation by clearing out Wells in favor of Hernandez. While I certainly would not mind getting as fat a paycheck as these guys are getting, being able to write off the loss and eat these contracts shows the kind of financial flexibility the Rockies will need to stay competitive over coming seasons. There are going to be bad decisions made at times when building the team, that's a given anywhere. It's key to keep commitments small so that backing out of those bad decisions always remains an option. Think of the headache Los Angeles now has with Andruw Jones, for instance. The problem I have is that the Rockies seem too stubborn to admit sometimes when they've made their mistakes, even if the ones they've made of late have been relatively small compared early this decade.
Two games this afternoon, it should be a fun time, particularly if it turns out as well as the last three Coors Field double dips. Counting the day/night kick-off of last September's miracle run against the Dodgers, the Rockies have swept both games of the last three double headers at home.
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Thursday Pebble Report:
Colorado Springs: L 4-6
Ryan Shealy did to the Sky Sox what he used to do for them, hitting a two run homer off Josh Hall as part of a four run second inning that in effect put this game out of reach early. Sean Barker had a pair of doubles in the loss.
Tulsa: L 3-10
Keith Weiser's debut for the Drillers didn't go quite the way he intended, and while he was left in long enough to see some success with a scoreless sixth and seventh, the six runs he gave up in the first five innings show the distance he has to bridge to make a successful jump to AA. Speaking of jumps, in a small detail, you might notice that Dexter Fowler missed last night's game, and his name no longer appears on Tulsa's roster.
Modesto: W 6-2
The Nuts offense woke up just in time for Jhoulys Chacin to record another win, scoring three after he had already finished his work for the night -and left trailing 1-00 in the top of the sixth. Chacin's outing wasn't particularly dominant by his standards, but it was effective nonetheless, allowing no extra base hits and just one run from seven baserunners in all. Daniel Mayora's two run homer keyed the sixth inning rally, and the Michaels Paulk and McKenry each had a pair of hits.
Asheville: Off
In my most recent farm report for the Rocky, I tried to look for some prospects that aren't getting any notice this season. In my research, the Tourists actually came out looking relatively dismal right now in terms of future MLB players when you go by the statistics. You have one bat in Darin Holcomb that seems likely to make it, one pitcher in Connor Graham (two if you count Shane Lindsay) and then several players who grade out as merely organizational filler with a few that might, if they're lucky, crack the bigs as fringe replacements for a cup of coffee. Now before everybody jumps on me, this isn't necessarily what I believe of these papers, it's just the cold objectivity of the statistical record at the moment. Of the position players, the three besides Holcomb that are closest to being on an MLB trajectory are Jeff Cunningham, Kevin Clark and David Christensen. As corner pleyers, they're going to need to step up their play a couple of degrees to start getting real notice, but it won't hurt to keep an eye on how these three finish out the year.
Tri-City: L 3-6
There isn't much difference from the five innings Parker Frazier threw and the five innings of Chacin's stint other than that Frazier was unfortunate to clump all of his bad stuff into one inning rather than spreading it out. Four runs scored in the third, but in the other four innings, Parker had a one hit shutout and looked very good. Thomas Field remains a clutch RBI machine, driving in all three Dust Devil runs while Scott Robinson scored a pair of them.
Casper: Off
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Sunday Morning Rockpile:
With Tulo starting to hit, Iannetta starting, our lineup is currently fine for the National League, our bullpen currently fine for the NL. The one glaring and obvious team weakness lies in three fifths of the starting rotation. By breaking down what it's taken teams to get quality starting help this July, namely the deals the Cubs, Brewers and Phillies have made, you can see that the decision of O'Dowd's to not get a starter boils down to large long term bets on two specific players, Ian Stewart and Dexter Fowler.
Stewart, in particular, seems to have been the key figure in keeping the Rockies from buying in 2008. For this point, it's helpful to go back to the offseason and look also at the Matt Garza/Delmon Young and Edinson Volquez/Josh Hamilton trades where it becomes clear that the best way to get a quality young cost controlled starter is to offer a quality young cost controlled power bat in return. It's become clear that nobody was offering starters of the caliber that O'Dowd's looking for (and should be looking for) in exchange for a reliever, no matter how good they are.
So unless O'Dowd plans on hunting up a similar trade to the Minnesota/Tampa Bay or Cincinnati/Texas deals by using Stewart this winter, it seems that the team is putting him into 2009's lineup in pencil already. Fowler might be in that category as well. In this case the wager made on Thursday was that a starting eight that included Dex and Stew in 2009 trumps the starting five getting rid of them would have brought. Looking at the numbers bears this out. Stewart this season, with a 138 OPS+ (compared to 105) and superior defense is already outperforming Atkins at third base. He'd be a downgrade offensively from Matt Holliday in left field, but not by much if he improves at the palte next season. Fowler, for his part, should be a better option than Taveras or Podsednik or Spilly by next April if he isn't already, but certainly by mid-summer at the latest.
So what we're left with is that the lot is basically cast here that the rotation problem and the extra parts we have are two distinct issues that are going to have to be solved separately if we want to put the best possible team on the field. Unless you're wearing a Pirates cap, you don't want us to give up Franklin Morales for Ian Snell when we all know that Morales could and should be better than Snell over the long haul. Nobody should want to give up Stewart for Duchsherer or Fowler for Washburn when Stewart and Fowler should be playing everyday in 2009 versus the once ever five day contribution those two starting pitchers will bring and the mediocrity that they'd bring at that.
So what O'Dowd ends up doing is kicking around the tires on guys like Livan Hernandez, somebody who's obviously not ideal, clearly only a National League bottom of the rotation starter at best (for more of that discussion check out Pioneer Skies diary on the right) but who might nonetheless be better than options we are currently using.
With fifteen strikeouts racked up in their loss yesterday, the Rockies continue a disturbing trend on offense. For the week they have 62 K's in 275 PA's as a team (22.5%,) compared to a season average of 18.6% and a NL average of 17.9%. Strikeouts by themselves aren't necessarily a bad thing, so long as there is a corresponding increase in other offensive categories, in fact, they could indicate either more patience or power and you should see a higher OBP or SLG, but we aren't exactly seeing that. What's actually happening is that the Rockies are striking out more, but also getting a little luckier with their balls hit into play so their overall offensive stats are basically the same. The problem is that once the luck with BABIP fades, the increasing lack of contact will take the team's offensive numbers down quickly.
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Sunday Pebble Report:
Colorado Springs: W 9-5
Two homeruns and four RBI by Joe Koshansky and a quality start by Jason Hirsh were the keys to this win.
Tulsa: L 3-5
All three of the Drillers runs were scored by solo homerun off Jess Todd, so the game may have had abetter result had they been able to get a few more runners on base. Chaz Roe's start was marred by a terrible fourth inning that saw him give up two doubles, two singles, and HBP and three runs, but otherwise he was pretty sound.
Modesto: L 3-9
Esmil Rogers lasted just four innings, giving up three of San Jose's runs, but the game sort of fell apart when he left as James Burok gave up four more runs and an anemic Nuts offense couldn't keep close. Michael McKenry and Jay Cox both doubled, but they were the only Nuts to record hits.
Asheville: L 7-12
Shane Lindsay made a rehab appearance, getting through two and two thirds innings with one run allowed and two hits and two walks. Sheng An Kuo came on in relief of Lindsay and got blistered for nine runs an inning and two thirds, including four on a fourth inning grand slam. Bo Bowman hit his first Asheville homer, and Brian Lapin homered in his second straight game.
Tri-City: W 7-4
Andy Goff had a .493 OPS at Casper, so you had to wonder why management chose to move him to Tri-City, where hitting will typically be more difficult, but his debut yesterday had to put some of those questions to rest. Goff doubled and homered in four at bats, while Chad Lembeck also knocked one out of the yard at Boise (okay, so they were at the one NWL stadium that would be more suited to the Pioneer League,) Jordan Pacheco drove in four, and Jonnathan Aristil had a quality start in the victory.
Casper: L 9-11
After combining for three runs on Friday, the same two teams broke out the bats for twenty on the day after. Chad Jacobsen had three hits, while six other Ghosts had two apiece and everybody in the lineup had at least one. The only Ghost who failed to reach base at least twice was Shane Lowe, who did get a single in five at bats. Maikol Gonzalez and Wilin Rosario tripled, while Gonzalez, Jacobsen, Tyler Massey and Mike Zuanich all doubled. Marco Duarte and Edwar Cabrera faltered on the mound, however, allowing all eleven runs in their combined six innings.
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Game #112: De Los Santos vs Nolasco
Nolasco seems to me to be somewhat of a home field/team creation this year, a pitcher that might not be as good as he looks if he played in one of the NL's less flyball pitcher friendly stadiums. Not that it matters, we're playing this game at Dolphin Stadium, and Valerio De Los Santos is our starter, so it's not like we're going to be able to find any advantage in that.
Go Rockies.
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