Whenever we talk about whether the Astros can continue to climb the standings during the remainder of this season, Carlos Lee's injury last weekend always comes up.  And for good reason.  Lee's offensive performance was excellent and will be irreplaceable.

Rather than just speculating, let's put some numbers to it.

Surprisingly, whomever has played LF in Lee's absence has been hitting very well...so far. We can use baseballmusing's day by day data base to find that out. Prior to Lee's injury, the Astros' left field position produced a .308 batting average and a .903 OPS.  All very good, of course.  In the short period subsequent to Lee's injury, the LF position has produced a .429 batting average and 1.169 OPS.  Wow, I didn't realize the left field replacements had been that good.  Of course, we are seeing a very brief time frame, and we can't expect the LF replacement to continue that rate of offense.

In evaluating the future impact of Lee's absence on the Astros, we must evaluate both offense and defense.  While the loss of Lee will hurt badly on the offensive side, the Astros should gain some on the defensive side.

For the defensive measurement, I use the Baseball Think Factory's defensive runs saved (above/below average for the position) here and here.  BBTF's calculation is one of several range based metrics which are available, and I'm not saying it is necessarily the best one.  But it does produce a "runs" calculation, and it is openly available on BBTF's web site. 

Cecil Cooper appears to favor a lefty / righty platoon of Wigginton and Erstad in LF, with Blum used at 3d base when Wiggy is the LFer.  In effect, the offensive differential, resulting from Lee's absence, is between Blum and Erstad versus Carlos Lee.  I assume that Wigginton is about the same as Carlos Lee defensively.  When Erstad plays, he is much better than Lee as a fielder.  When Wiggy plays LF, Blum provides a defensive improvement at 3d base.  So, the defensive improvement is based upon Erstad vs. Lee in LF, and Blum vs. Wigginton at 3d base. 

I used Erstad's defensive runs saved in both LF and CF this season (in order to get a larger sample size).  BBTF's defensive calculation overstates how bad Lee is on the fielding side, because of peculiarities related to MMP's high left field wall.  Therefore, to be conservative, I adjusted Lee's terrible negative "runs saved" value, nearly -20, to -15 runs saved. 

For offensive performance, I used Runs Created from the Hardball Times stats, and turned the defensive and offensive runs into rate stats (per inning and per plate appearance).  Here are some results.

Runs Created Per 100 Plate Appearances

Lee  17.9

Blum  12.4

Erstad  12.95

Defensive Runs Saved Per 100 Innings

Lee  -1.7

Erstad  +1.2

Wigginton (3d base)  -0.1

Blum (3d base) +0.67

For guesstimate sake, I assumed 369 innings and 164 plate appearances  remain this season.  With the "Wiggy in LF/ Blum at 3d base" configuration, the Astros lose 6.14 net runs for the remainder of the season.  With Erstad replacing Lee, the Astros actually gain 2.5 runs over the remainder of the season.  That's because the defensive improvement of 10.63 runs saved exceeds the offensive loss of 8.1 runs scored.  If you assume a platoon in which Erstad plays 70% and Blum 30%, the net runs lost due to Lee's absence is minimal (less than 1 run).

Of course, this ignores the fact that Lee was blazing hot when he went down.  His OPS in August was over 1.5.  But, then again, how long could we have expected Carlos Lee to stay THAT hot?

I realize that a large margin of error surrounds this type of calculation; so I'm not going to try and convince you that the Astros won't miss Carlos Lee (even if these numbers say so).  Moreover, it is possible that the performance of Erstad and Blum will decline if they are over-exposed (meaning that they won't produce well if they are overused).  On the other hand, Cooper's platoon scheme may prevent either player from being over-exposed.  However, I think the exercise demonstrates that the Astros may not be hurt by Lee's absense as much as we think.  Runs which are allowed or saved by the defense count just as much as runs scored by the offense.

I had to laugh when I saw Richard Justice's Houston Chronicle column, suggesting that McLane should sign Bonds to replace Lee for the rest of year.  Here is an excerpt of what he says:

The Astros need a left fielder. I know the name of a good one. He's rested and ready. He'll bring a buzz to the ballpark, too. He'd suddenly make the Astros baseball's most interesting team.

What's wrong with having a little buzz? Why should the Dallas Cowboys have all the fun?

Barry Lamar Bonds would be a perfect fit for the Astros.

Our local nine has been winning some games lately. Just as they're closing in on .500, one of their two best players, Carlos Lee, goes down with a broken finger.

If the goal is to win, Drayton McLane will make that call to Barry. What would the Rockets do? They just went for a guy that has done far worse things than Barry.

Trust me when I tell you Barry is vastly overrated as a bad guy in the clubhouse. He's a little prickly at times, a little standoffish, but who among us isn't? Jeff Kent didn't always whistle when he walked in the clubhouse, and he has turned out to be one of the all-time best guys to have on a baseball team.

Besides, Barry would be absolutely thrilled to get another shot. He thinks he has been black-balled. Maybe he has.

That's beside the point. Even if the commissioner doesn't want him in the game, it's Drayton's job to do what's best for his club.

Go for it, Drayton. He might just be the best offensive player of all-time. Since he got big, there's almost no argument about that. No one has done the things Barry has done.

He changes games unlike any other. Opposing pitchers began preparing for him an inning before he was scheduled to hit. If Cecil Cooper batted Barry third, Lance Berkman suddenly would be leading the world in RBI opportunities.

The Astros wouldn't have an empty seat in the house, and you know how many hot dogs that will sell. Hear that sound? That's the cash register ringing. See the standings? The Astros would be moving up.

 

I doubt that this would ever happen.  But it is sure to generate much comment and discussion among Astros' fans, many of whom dislike Bonds immensely.  I wouldn't mind seeing it happen, just to see what everybody's reaction would be.

The Chronicle's game article said that Backe is the first Astros pitcher to give up 11 runs since Jason Jennings.  The story below it says, "Astros sign Independent League Pitcher."  The juxtaposition had to make me laugh.  One might think that the Astros were reacting to Backe's implosion by picking up whomever they could in the independent league.

The independent league player (Texarkana Gunslingers!!), however, is 21 years old and will be assigned to Class A ball.   The kid, Jack Tighlman, is intriguing because he throws 100 mph and leads his independent league in saves.  He also has an unidentified off the field issue, and will be given a fresh start, according to Bobby Heck.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/5928451.html

Another interesting development in the minors...Bogusevic.  Brian Bogusevic, the Astros former No. 1 draft pick, a lefthand pitcher, was shifted in mid-season from pitcher to hitter.  He was moved down from AA Corpus to A Salem, but quickly showed enough offensive ability to be promoted back to AA Corpus a week or so later.  This note from the Chronicle is interesting:

Former first-round pick Brian Bogusevic is hitting .295 with three homers and 10 RBIs through 20 games as an outfielder at Corpus Christi. He homered twice on July 31.

Before I am too far removed from the episodes which prompted this article, I will interrupt our contemplation of the Cubs' series with a look back at Astros' base running this year.  During the New York Mets series in Houston, Hunter Pence made a couple of gaffes on the base paths which were consequentlal in shutting down potential scoring threats by the Astros.  In the game threads on both this web site and the Astrosdaily forum, Pence's base running drew sharp, frustrated comments.  I don't mean to pick on Pence; at other times this year, base running mistakes by other Astros' players have been the subject of similar comments.

The topic is interesting for a couple of reasons.  First, Ed Wade and Cecil Cooper said that an important objective this season is to improve the Astros' base running.  Second, base running is a difficult skill to measure, and I am fascinated by Bill James' attempt to statistically capture individual base running performance.  Third, I like to surprise those people who think that sabermetric analysts don't care about base running.  I have seen that myth spouted by many talking heads; yet it is clear that Bill James, who is the dean of modern sabermetrics, has always shown an interest in the subject.

Bill James' base running index shows that Wade and Cooper were right when they said that the Astros' base running in 2007 left a lot to be desired. As this baseball analysts article indicates, the 2008 Bill James Handbook placed the 2007 Houston Astros as the worst base running team in the major leagues. As noted in the article, base running is difficult to measure because it involves many actions: stealing bases; avoiding double plays; runners going from first to third on a single, scoring from second on a single and from first on a double; moving up on a wild pitch, passed ball, balk, sac fly, or defensive indifference; runs scored as a percentage of times on base; and baserunning outs  Bill James' base running index attempts to quantify bases gained or lost compared to the average.

I will use 2008 base running stats from billjames-online.net.  Because this is a subscription web site, I will group data results in order to avoid disclosing all of the actual numerical results.

Best Astros Base Running Scores (+18 - +22)

1. Berkman

2. Matsui (tie)

3. Bourn (tie)

Worst Astros Base Running Scores (worse than -10)

Worst: Carlos Lee

Next Worse: Hunter Pence

Positive Scores

Blum, Loretta, Towles

Negative Scores

Ausmus, Wigginton, Tejada, Quintero, Erstad

The sum for the players above nets out to +21.  That means the Astros gained 21 more bases than the average team with their running.  That is a substantial improvement.  However, the vast majority of the positive base running was performed by just three base runners, Matsui, Bourn, and Berkman.  Matsui was one of the best base runners in baseball last year with +41, and Matsui's base running skill is surely a major reason Wade acquired him.  Bourn is just plain old fast.  Shockingly, Berkman has been the team's most productive base runner.  This is surprising because Berkman's base running scores for previous years have not been good.  Just as Berkman has seemingly turned around his defense this year, from bad to great, he has done the same thing running the bases.  Could Berkman, who often looks somewhat awkward on the base paths, become another Jeff Bagwell?

I started out the article mentioning Hunter Pence.  And it is disappointing that Pence scores so poorly on the base running index.  One of the biggest issues for him is a lack of success stealing bases.  Because Pence is relatively speedy, you really hope to see a positive base running score.  However, this lends proof to the adage that speed, alone, does not make a good base runner.  Fortunately, players can improve their base running ability, and hopefully Pence will improve over time.

The double play ratio is an interesting component of James' base running index.  The Astros ground into a lot of double plays.  This happens when you have slow runners with good bat contact ability.  The DP% is based on DP opportunities:

Best to Worst

Blum (3% best)

Matsui, Bourn (tie)

Erstad

Ausmus, Wigginton, Lee (tie-10%)

Pence

Loretta

Berkman

Tejada

Quintero (worst- 19%)

Are you surprised that Ausmus and Lee aren't the worst?  Are you surprised that Blum is the best?  (maybe small sample size for Geoff?)

The Twins called up Francisco Liriano and released Livan Hernandez.  My question is this: if Livan Hernandez is available for league minimum salary, would you sign him?  Hernandez was eating up innings in Minnesota but producing a bad ERA, 5.48, in the AL.  His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is significantly better than his ERA, though, suggesting that his ERA may be inflated by bad luck.  It is plausible that could produce a low 4's ERA in the NL, based upon his FIP and the change in leagues.  I suppose part of my reluctance in signing him is that it's not clear who you would remove from the rotation, since Backe and Moehler have pitched well lately. At the least, Livan Hernandez could be pretty good depth for the rotation, in the event someone goes down.

The Astros' pitching has been weak, ranking in the lower third of the league.  However, most of us expected the pitching to be weak, at least relative to the offense.  The pitching has been approximately what we expected, but the offense hasn't been as good as we anticipated.

During the off-season, I said that I expected the Astros' pitching to be somewhat better than in 2007.  Some were skeptical of that contention.  However, so far the pitching performance in 2008 is better than the 2007 pitching.  If you said that shows how bad the pitching was in 2007,  I wouldn't argue with you.  But the Astros' overall ERA of 4.52 in 2008 is an improvement over the 4.70 ERA in 2007.  The performance of starting pitchers in 2008 has been approximately the same as last  year (4.74 in 08 vs. 4.70  in 07).  However, the relief pitching in 2008 is significantly improved over 2007, with a current ERA of 4.17 compared to 4.69 in 2007.  The bullpen has been used for a larger proportion of the innings pitched in 2008 (37%) than 2007 (33%).  This raises the question whether the bullpen can continue to shoulder that large a burden in the future without its performance deteriorating.

On to the grades.  In case you're wondering, I leave out Chacon and Villareal, who might get a "withdrawn/incomplete" grade.

Starters

Roy Oswalt. C.  Oswalt leads the team in wins and innings pitched.  Most pitchers might get better than a C grade.  But, in his case, the expectations for an ace of his quality are much greater.  Oswalt has gone through streaks in which he has pitched either very poorly or very well.  I suspect that  periodic problems with his hip injury may have led to this pattern.  If and when he gets healed up, I anticipate he will give us another streak of well pitched games.  Roy's ERA of 4.56 is almost one full run higher than his norm.  His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) result (4.28) indicates that he has pitched somewhat better than his ERA indicates.

Brian Moehler. B+.  Moehler has an ERA of 3.97 as a starter and 7.45 as a relief pitcher in 2008.  Since most of his innings have been as a starter, his overall ERA is 4.28.  Any way one looks at it, Moehler has outperformed expectations by a wide margin. Moehler's FIP is 4.77, which could indicate that his below-3 ERA as a starter may not be sustainable in the future.  The only down side to Moehler's performance as a starter is that he is averaging less than 6 innings per start.

Wandy Rodriguez. B.  A pitcher with Wandy's 3.48 ERA might normally get a better grade than a B.  However, his time off due to injuries has prevented him from being as great a force as he should be in the rotation. He also has averaged less than 6 innings per start.  Wandy's 3.70 ERA FIP shows that his performance is no fluke, though. 

Brandon Backe. C+. Backe's 4.76 ERA isn't much higher than I would have expected, based on his career performance.  But he has some ugly numbers too: like a 1.56 WHIP, 22 HR allowed, and 124 hits in 112 innings.  His 5.51 FIP might suggest that his ERA is "lucky."  Given that Backe's outings often are either very good or very bad, you wonder which Backe you will see before any given start.  An optimistic view is that he is slowly making his way back from arm surgery, and will improve in the second half.

Chris Sampson. B-.  Which Chris Sampson do we grade?  Sampson, the reliever, with a 1.61 ERA and microscopic 0.63 WHIP?  Or, Sampson, the starter, with a 5.66 ERA and 1.46 WHIP?  Sampson's overall FIP of 3.65 is the best of his short ML career, and significantly better than overall ERA of 4.50.  If he stays in the bullpen, Sampson's grade may go to the head of the class.

Jack Cassel. incomplete.  His 5.59 ERA isn't good, but his 9 innings pitched aren't enough to evaluate him.

R. Hernandez. D-.  With more lenient grading, his 14 innings pitched could result in an incomplete too.  However, his 10.29 ERA leads one to believe that he won't be any further help to the major league team this year. 

Relievers

A- Grades:

Jose Valverde and Doug Brocail.  Overall both late inning relievers have done their jobs.  Valverde settled in to become a tough as nails closer after a shaky start to the season.  Brocail had his ups and downs, too, but basically he has been better than we have a right to expect from a 40 year old relief pitcher on a pace to pitch 85 or so innings.  Overwork may become the issue for Brocail in the future.  Some of the bad outings by each pitcher have occurred when they were asked to peform the other's role (i.e., Valverde in the 8th inning or Brocail in the 9th inning).

B+ Grades:

Tim Byrdak and Geoff Geary.  Both have fine ERAs (Byrdak at 1.71 and Geary at 2.25).  However, ERA is limited as a means of evaluating middle relievers.  That's because the pitchers' good or bad performances may have more impact upon the ERA of the pitcher who preceded them in an inning.  Both pitchers walk too many batters (Byrdak is over 6 BB/9 and Geary is over 4 BB/9.)  Both pitchers have exceeded our expectations out of the pen, though.  Byrdak's FIP is much more out of line with his ERA, than Geary's.  This may indicate that the odds of Geary continuing his excellent pitching are better than Byrdak's.

C Grade:

Wesley Wright.  A reliever with a 5.03 ERA and 1.53 WHIP often gets a grade below C.  But I adjust my grade to reflect our legitimate expectations for a AA relief pitcher working in the majors for the first time.  As a Rule 5 acquisition, one might have expected Wright would be assigned to mop up relief roles.  Instead, Wright has been used in many critical high leverage situations.  On some occasions he has come through with flying colors. On other occasions he has failed.  His biggest failing is his control (over 6 BB/9).  However, his 8.47 K/9 is excellent, and indicates that his performance this season may hold promise for the future.

D Grade:

Dave Borkowski.  7.45 ERA. 6.25 FIP. 1.90 WHIP. 45 hits in 29 innings.  Average fastball velocity below 90 for the first time.  Yikes!

COACHES AND FRONT OFFICE

Anyone care to give their grade for Cooper, his coaches, or Ed Wade?  I'll cop out on these questions and leave it to you.

The All-Star Break is a good time to look at the grades for the Astros' players.  These are my opinions, and I'm sure some of you will disagree.  Well, jump in and give your grades, if you like.

1b. Lance Berkman. A+

I shouldn't have to explain this much.  Berkman leads all NL players with 23 Win Shares.  By comparison, Carlos Lee, who is having a nice year himself, has 13 Win Shares.  He leads all NL players in Runs Created, with 86.  On top of his obvious excellence in hitting, Berkman's defense has been superb.  He leads all NL 1st baseman in Revised Zone Rating (RZR).

2b. Kaz Matsui  B-. 

If not for his lengthy absences, I would have given Matsui a regular B, because he has done pretty much what the Astros expected.  His OPS is a bit light (low .700's), but he is slightly above average for NL 2d basemen in Runs Created.  He is one of the few Astros hitters who shows patience at the plate.  His base running is every bit as good as advertised.  He isn't the best 2d baseman in the league, but he isn't what's wrong with the team either.

SS. Miguel Tejada.  C+

I wouldn't have guessed in May that this would be my grade for Tejada.  We can only hope the end of season grade is much better.  Tejada's .739 OPS is a big disappointment  and makes him an average-to-below-average offensive shortstop.  If he continued that offensive pace, it would be the worst offensive season of his career.  This all might justify a C or C-, but I gave him a C+ because his defense has been outstanding.    He leads NL shortstops in RZR.

3b. Wigginton. B.

His .838 OPS is just about even with expectations.  He is at least average, offensively, as a third baseman.  His fielding is below average for a 3d baseman, but that is what the Astros should have expected.  His RZR is worse than the range he exhibited for Houston in 07, but very similar to his RZR at 3d base during other seasons in his career.  Since Wiggy has produced as expected, I think he deserves a B.

LF. Carlos Lee. B+

Lee's .899 OPS is slightly above expectations, and puts him in the top 5 NL LFers, in terms of OPS.  LF is an offensive position, and Lee leads all LFers with 76 RBIs.  His defense has been poor.  He is last among starting NL starting LFers in RZR.  But, then again, that kind of fielding is what was expected from him, given his history of declining range.

CF. Michael Bourn. D.

Bourn is dead last among NL CFers with a .564 OPS.  That isn't just garden variety bad, it's very bad.  The best we can say is that, hopefully, he will show offensive improvement in the second half.  Despite the fact that he has been the lead off hitter most of the time this season, he only scored 39 runs, which is less than almost any other full time CFer.  Bourn's saving grace is that he has played good defense in CF, and his speed has allowed him to make spectacular plays at times.

RF. Hunter Pence. C+..

Pence's .732 OPS is well below what we expected, and puts him in the lower third of RFers, offensively.  Despite the generally low offensive performance, Pence still has managed 46 RBIs, which ranks him 4th among NL RFers.  Pence's defense in RF has been very good, and his RZR ranks among the top 3 NL RFers.

C. J.R. Towles. D.

Towles .148 batting average and .528 OPS speaks for itself.  He was supposed to be the starting catcher.  His defense at catcher has been fine.  But the offense has been a huge disappointment.

Reserves:

Loretta B+. He is the consummate professional, and has handled his reserve role well.  He has proven to be a clutch hitter, and a low .700's OPS for a reserve middle infielder is good.

Erstad. A-.  The same could be said about Erstad.  He has been better than expected.  He has been a clutch hitter, run the bases well, and played very good outfield defense.

Blum. C+..  Blum's offense has not been good, with a .599 OPS.  However, that should have been expected to some extent, because Blum has not been a good offensive player for several years.  He has played good defense at 3d base; and if his primary role is a defensive one, he has done that well.

Ausmus. C. Ausmus signed on for a different role: mentor and reserve catcher.  At times, he has been forced back into the primary catcher position.  Ausmus' offense hasn't been good, as indicated by a .222 batting average and .570 OPS.  Taking into account his reserve role, and his history of sub-par offense, I view him in a light similar to Blum: his offense isn't much different than expected.  His defense is declining with age, but he still provides important intangible on the field, particularly when it comes to working with pitchers.

I will address pitchers' grades in a later article.