1 run madness

There is a fair amount of evidence that the outcome of 1 run games is almost pure luck.  The contrarian will state that good teams know how to win close games.  That FEELS like it should be accurate, but I think good teams tend to win more blowouts than they lose and just hope they are lucky in one run games.  While it would appear that your bullpen would have a large say in the outcome of 1 run games, I think it is quite overstated as the offense has just as much input as does the starting pitcher.  

Right now, the Phils are 56-51 and in the playoff race despite bucking some of the worst 1 run luck in baseball.  

The Phillies are 6-17 in 1 run games.  That is 3 fewer wins than the next team (3 have 9 wins) and only one has more losses (Baltimore).  The Yankees and ex-Champion Cardinals are the other 9 win teams.  Does that mean these are all bad teams?  Of the 6 cellar dwellers, 3 of them have winning records in 1 run games (Tampa, Texas and Washington).  Definitely not good teams.  Only 1 division leader has a losing record (Milwaukee) though Boston is .500 despite having the best record in the league.  

Good teams tend to have good records in 1 run games because of the benefit of winning them. Seems obvious enough. Colorado and Atlanta are getting hurt in that respect just as the Dodgers have been getting helped. In the AL, the Yanks and Orioles are getting crushed by 1 run lossed while teams like Texas and KC are performing better than they do normally.

This table gives us the Jimmy Stewart, what if there were no 1 run games scenario. In the AL, the Red Sox would still be king, but the Yankees and Baltimore enter the picture as top tier teams. In the NL The Phils vault all the way to first and it isn't even close. They are close to a .600 winning percentage while the Mets are barely keeping their head above .500. Run differentials certainly show that the Phillies and Mets are closer than this would indicate, but we certainly have not had any favors from the baseball gods and it appears with Utley and Victorino out, that we shouldn't be expecting any for a while.