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Reasons to Be Unhappy

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In the last two days, the Phillies playoff chances have gone from 26.5% to 11.9%.  They are now statistically irrelevant in the NL East race (0.5% chance, compared with a 17.6% chance after sweeping the Mets).  And all four of the competitive NL West teams have a better chance than the Phils at taking the Wild Card (Diamondbacks 19.0%, Padres 41.1%, Dodgers 12.9%, and Rockies 12.9%).

Graphically, the NL East race has looked like this all year. The trend is not good for the Phillies (in red). (Click on the image for a clearer graph.)

(Thanks to Baseball Prospectus for the data and graph.)

They have one more game against the Rockies tonight. They need to reverse the trend immediately.