At the beginning of the season, the Phillies' odds of winning the World Series looked to be around 4%. When Eric Hinske swung and missed at a Brad Lidge slider and Carlos Ruiz squeezed his catcher's mitt around it, those odds peaked at 100%. I decided to pose the question...when did it all go right? I used fangraphs.com reports of Win Percentage Added play by play, and assuming that each game had a 50% chance of going right, I calculated the Top 10 biggest increases in the Phillies' odds of becoming World Champions. Since I assumed that each game had a 50% chance of going right, the odds of winning the World Series were 12.5% (1/8) when we made the playoffs, 25% when we made the NLCS, 50% when we made the World Series. So, for instance, when we won game 1 of the World Series, our odds of winning the World Series went up from 50% to 65.625%. Had we lost, our odds would have been 34.375%. Therefore, when Chase Utley hit a homerun in the 1st inning of Game 1, our odds of winning that game 1 went up from 50.2% to 67.3%. Therefore, our odds of becoming World Series Champions went up from 50.1% to 55.4%. Using that logic, I present the top 10 plays.
10. Shane Victorino's first inning bases loaded, two out, two-run single in the 5th Game of the World Series. Afterwards, the Phillies led the game five 2-0, on their way to winning the World Series 4 games to 1.
Odds of winning Game 5 before: 57.1%
Odds of winning Game 5 after: 72.8%
Odds of winning World Series before: 89.3%
Odds of winning World Series after: 93.2%
Net Change: 3.93%
9. Chase Utley's sixth inning solo homerun in Game 3 of the World Series. Afterwards, the Phillies led the game 3-1, on thier way to taking a 2-1 lead in the series.
Odds of winning Game 3 before: 74.0%
Odds of winning Game 3 after: 84.%
Odds of winning World Serires before: 59.0%
Odds of winning World Series after: 62.9%
Net Change: 3.94%
8. Carlos Ruiz's second solo homerun in Game 3 of the World Series. Afterwards, the Phillies led 2-1, on their way to taking a series lead of 2 games to 1.
Odds of winning Game 3 before: 51.2%
Odds of winning Game 3 after: 62.2%
Odds of winning World Series before: 50.5%
Odds of winning World Series after: 54.6%
Net Change: 4.13%
7. B.J. Upton's eighth inning double play groundout in World Series Game 5, with a man on 1st and nobody out, against J.C. Romero. Afterwards, the Phillies still led 4-3, on their way to winning the World Series 4 games to 1.
Odds of winning Game 5 before: 65.7%
Odds of winning Game 5 after: 83.9%
Odds of winning World Series before: 91.4%
Odds of winning World Series after: 96.0%
Net Change: 4.55%
6. Chase Utley's first inning one-out, two-run homerun of World Series Game 1. Afterwards, the Phillies led 2-0, on their way to taking a 1-0 series lead.
Odds of winning Game 1 before: 50.3%
Odds of winning Game 1 after: 67.3%
Odds of winning World Series before: 50.1%
Odds of winning World Series after: 55.4%
Net Change: 5.31%
5. B.J. Upton's third inning double play groundout with one out and the bases loaded in World Series Game 1. Afterwards, the Phillies still led the game 2-0, on their way to taking a 1-0 series lead.
Odds of winning Game 1 before: 55.6%
Odds of winning Game 1after: 73.4%
Odds of winning World Series before: 51.8%
Odds of winning World Series after: 57.3%
Net Change: 5.56%
4. Shane Victorino's eighth inning two-run homerun in Game 4 of the NLCS, with one out and a man on first. Afterwards, the Phillies had tied the game up at 5-5, on their way to taking a 3-1 NLCS series lead.
Odds of winning Game 4 before: 12.5%
Odds of winning Game 4 after: 45.6%
Odds of winning NLCS before: 54.7%
Odds of winning NLCS after: 67.1%
Odds of winning World Series before: 27.3%
Odds of winning World Series after: 33.6%
Net Change: 6.21%
3. Ryan Howard's fourth inning three-run homerun in World Series Game 4, with men on first and second and one out. Afterwards, the Phillies led the game 5-1, on their way to take a 3-1 series lead.
Odds of winning Game 4 before: 72.0%
Odds of winning Game 4 after: 90.5%
Odds of winning World Series before: 77.0%
Odds of winning World Series after: 83.9%
Net Change: 6.94%
2. Matt Stairs' eighth inning two-run homerun in NLCS Game 4, with a man on first and two out. Afterwards, the Phillies led the game 7-5, on their way to taking a 3-1 NLCS lead.
Odds of winning NLCS Game 4 before: 44.9%
Odds of winning NLCS Game 4 after: 86.7%
Odds of winning NLCS before: 66.8%
Odds of winning NLCS after: 82.5%
Odds of winning World Series before: 33.4%
Odds of winning World Series after: 41.3%
Net Change: 7.84%
1. Eric Bruntlett ninth inning advancement to second on a wild pitch, and subsequent advance to third on a throwing error, with no outs in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th of World Series Game 3.
Odds of winning World Series Game 3 before: 71.4%
Odds of winning World Series Game 3 after: 93.4%
Odds of winning World Series before: 58.0%
Odds of winning World Series after: 66.3%
Net Change: 8.25%
What do people think? Does this jive with reality? Does this seem like the correct order of when it all went right?