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When Did It All Go Right?

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At the beginning of the season, the Phillies' odds of winning the World Series looked to be around 4%.  When Eric Hinske swung and missed at a Brad Lidge slider and Carlos Ruiz squeezed his catcher's mitt around it, those odds peaked at 100%.  I decided to pose the question...when did it all go right?  I used fangraphs.com reports of Win Percentage Added play by play, and assuming that each game had a 50% chance of going right, I calculated the Top 10 biggest increases in the Phillies' odds of becoming World Champions.  Since I assumed that each game had a 50% chance of going right, the odds of winning the World Series were 12.5% (1/8) when we made the playoffs, 25% when we made the NLCS, 50% when we made the World Series.  So, for instance, when we won game 1 of the World Series, our odds of winning the World Series went up from 50% to 65.625%.  Had we lost, our odds would have been 34.375%.  Therefore, when Chase Utley hit a homerun in the 1st inning of Game 1, our odds of winning that game 1 went up from 50.2% to 67.3%.  Therefore, our odds of becoming World Series Champions went up from 50.1% to 55.4%.   Using that logic, I present the top 10 plays.

 

10. Shane Victorino's first inning bases loaded, two out, two-run single in the 5th Game of the World Series.  Afterwards, the Phillies led the game five 2-0, on their way to winning the World Series 4 games to 1.

Odds of winning Game 5 before: 57.1%

Odds of winning Game 5 after: 72.8%

Odds of winning World Series before: 89.3%

Odds of winning World Series after: 93.2%

Net Change: 3.93%

 

9. Chase Utley's sixth inning solo homerun in Game 3 of the World Series.  Afterwards, the Phillies led the game 3-1, on thier way to taking a 2-1 lead in the series.

Odds of winning Game 3 before: 74.0%

Odds of winning Game 3 after: 84.%

Odds of winning World Serires before: 59.0%

Odds of winning World Series after: 62.9%

Net Change: 3.94%

8. Carlos Ruiz's second solo homerun in Game 3 of the World Series.  Afterwards, the Phillies led 2-1, on their way to taking a series lead of 2 games to 1.

Odds of winning Game 3 before: 51.2%

Odds of winning Game 3 after: 62.2%

Odds of winning World Series before: 50.5%

Odds of winning World Series after: 54.6%

Net Change: 4.13%

 

7. B.J. Upton's eighth inning double play groundout in World Series Game 5, with a man on 1st and nobody out, against J.C. Romero.  Afterwards, the Phillies still led 4-3, on their way to winning the World Series 4 games to 1.

Odds of winning Game 5 before: 65.7%

Odds of winning Game 5 after: 83.9%

Odds of winning World Series before: 91.4%

Odds of winning World Series after: 96.0%

Net Change: 4.55%

 

6. Chase Utley's first inning one-out, two-run homerun of World Series Game 1.  Afterwards, the Phillies led 2-0, on their way to taking a 1-0 series lead.

Odds of winning Game 1 before: 50.3%

Odds of winning Game 1 after: 67.3%

Odds of winning World Series before: 50.1%

Odds of winning World Series after: 55.4%

Net Change: 5.31%

 

5. B.J. Upton's third inning double play groundout with one out and the bases loaded in World Series Game 1.  Afterwards, the Phillies still led the game 2-0, on their way to taking a 1-0 series lead.

Odds of winning Game 1 before: 55.6%

Odds of winning Game 1after: 73.4%

Odds of winning World Series before: 51.8%

Odds of winning World Series after: 57.3%

Net Change: 5.56%

 

4. Shane Victorino's eighth inning two-run homerun in Game 4 of the NLCS, with one out and a man on first.  Afterwards, the Phillies had tied the game up at 5-5, on their way to taking a 3-1 NLCS series lead.

Odds of winning Game 4 before: 12.5%

Odds of winning Game 4 after: 45.6%

Odds of winning NLCS before: 54.7%

Odds of winning NLCS after: 67.1%

Odds of winning World Series before: 27.3%

Odds of winning World Series after: 33.6%

Net Change: 6.21%

 

3. Ryan Howard's fourth inning three-run homerun in World Series Game 4, with men on first and second and one out.  Afterwards, the Phillies led the game 5-1, on their way to take a 3-1 series lead.

Odds of winning Game 4 before: 72.0%

Odds of winning Game 4 after: 90.5%

Odds of winning World Series before: 77.0%

Odds of winning World Series after: 83.9%

Net Change: 6.94%

 

2. Matt Stairs' eighth inning two-run homerun in NLCS Game 4, with a man on first and two out.  Afterwards, the Phillies led the game 7-5, on their way to taking a 3-1 NLCS lead.

Odds of winning NLCS Game 4 before: 44.9%

Odds of winning NLCS Game 4 after: 86.7%

Odds of winning NLCS before: 66.8%

Odds of winning NLCS after: 82.5%

Odds of winning World Series before: 33.4%

Odds of winning World Series after: 41.3%

Net Change: 7.84%

 

1. Eric Bruntlett ninth inning advancement to second on a wild pitch, and subsequent advance to third on a throwing error, with no outs in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th of World Series Game 3.

Odds of winning World Series Game 3 before: 71.4%

Odds of winning World Series Game 3 after: 93.4%

Odds of winning World Series before: 58.0%

Odds of winning World Series after: 66.3%

Net Change: 8.25%

 

What do people think?  Does this jive with reality?  Does this seem like the correct order of when it all went right?