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Playoff Odds

Even the most cynical of statistical analysis has to agree that odds are what keep people involved.  If your team has a 1% chance of making the playoffs, well, then you probably are watching football on Sunday afternoon.  Now, how do we get the odds and are the different versions out there really all that, um, different?  I don't think it matters as long as the basic rules are the same.

Baseball Prospectus updates their odds report every morning, so, I may add an update to this post because the Met's loss has not been factored in.

The basic Post Season Odds are here with an explanation:

Phillies            34.02 Div   25.309 WC   59.33 PO    28.04 1D  31.54 7D

The Phils had a 34% chance of winning the division, a 25% chance at the WC and a 60% chance of making the playoffs.  Sunday increased our odds of making the playoffs by 28%, quite a huge jump (it is obvious why).  They have increased their odds by 31.5% over the last 7 days.  I'd suspect with the Mets loss, our odds of the division will increase to around 42% and our overall odds to around 66% (I am not sure how WC odds canabalize division odds and vice versa).

ELO (Electric Lights Orchestra) odds love us more:

Phillies           38.16 Div   29.345 WC   67.51 PO


Phillies          33.40 Div  26.25 WC   59.64 PO

All much better than a week ago, we'll all agree on.

Looking at just the remaining schedules of the Mets, Phils and Brewers, we get this:

Mets: 3 @ Was, 3 @ Atl, 4 vs Chi and 3 vs FLA

Brewers: 3 @ Chi, 3 @ Cin, 3 vs Pit, 3 vs Chi

Phils: 3 @ Atl, 3 @ Fla, 3 vs Atl, 3 vs Was

Ignoring the possibility that the Cubs mail it in when they win the division, the winning percentages for opponents look like this:

Mets: .497 OPP Win %
Brewers: .523 OPP Win %
Phillies: .4478 OPP Win %

Thanks to the Cubs (as WholeCamels points out), the Phillies have a significant edge in their opponents for the rest of the year.  The upconing series is interesting for the Brewers and the Cubs.  If the Cubs sweep the Brewers (and lets presume that Houston and Stl are out of it) then the Phils probably have an easy walk to the Wild Card.  If the Brewers somehow sweep the Cubs, then the Cubs probably have something to play for when they face the Mets and maybe the Brewers at the end of the year. 

I am by no means stating that I want the Brewers to sweep the Cubs to have the Cubs worry a bit and then have to play hard against the Mets.  I'd rather the Cubs just knock them out. 

The Phillies have 83 wins.  I think 90 will get them at least a tie for the division or the WC.  That means going 7-5 over the last 12 against weak divisional foes.  8-4 will probably mean that they are almost assured of tie.

Of course, we could hope for the Mets and the Brewers to win out and the Cubs to get swepts by the Cardinals and the Phils win 9 games to beat out the Cubs for the WC spot, but that would be as ridiculous as making up 7 games in the last 2 weeks of the season.