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Phillies vs Nationals: April 13, 15, and 16

We know who the Phillies are, but in case you need a recap of our splits, check out the article from the opener here.

As far as the Nationals, they are 0-6 so far, and the Phillies hope they can make them 0-9.  They have a few solid players but are definitely a beatable team overall.  Their pitching is really suspect, and none of their pitchers really seem likely to dominate us.  Here is my preview of the splits and breakdowns of the Washington Nationals:


The Nationals have a decent lineup, but they have not exactly managed their resources perfectly meaning that they have five guys who could legitimately play LF/RF/1B, and two are on the bench.  They have two solid lefties with great eyes right in the middle of their lineup, and it will be important for the Phillies to get past them.  The Nationals do not have much power outside of these guys and Zimmerman though and they don't have very good contact hitters either. Other than Johnson and Dunn in the middle of their lineup, the rest of their lineup is actually right-handed or switch-hitters.

CF Lastings Milledge (R)

projection average (proj): .280/.350/.435
projected BB/PA (bb): 7.5%
projected K/AB (k): 20%
career gb% (gb): 46%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 15%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 11%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): average in general
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): tends to swing at pitches out of strike zone more than others
righty/lefty (r/l): 3.2 k/bb vs rhp, 2.3 k/bb vs lhp; otherwise similar
home/away (h/a): .793/.657; 2.3 k/bb at home, 3.7 k/bb on road
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): struggles a lot against power pitchers

SS Cristian Guzman (S)

proj: .295/.335/.420
bb: 5%
k: 12%
gb: 55%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: solid ground ball rate puts him around .315-.320
s/c/z: fair strike judgment but plus contact skill
r/l: poorer strike zone judgment as rhb but more power
h/a: .743/.645 career
p/o: more of a pull hitter against rhb, but some pull tendencies against lhb too
other: none

3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)

proj: .285/.350/.475
bb: 8.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: tends to hit around .315 on BIP since he hits a lot of groundballs in the whole
s/c/z: about average across the board
r/l: .758/.931; 2.6 k/bb vs rhp, 1.2 vs lhp; and slightly more power against lhp too
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

LF Adam Dunn (L)

proj: .245/.380/.490
bb: 17.5%
k: 31%
gb: 34%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: somewhat low, around .290 career, mostly bc of low babip on groundballs due to the shift
s/c/z: good eye, laying off pitches out of the strike zone; poor contact skills but not as bad as you might expect; sees few strikes
r/l: .932/.833; biggest difference is 1.4 k/bb vs rhb and 2.0 k/bb vs lhb
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: definitepull hitter
other: nothing abnormal; power lefties tend to do better with men on, but he hasn't in his career

1B Nick Johnson (L)

proj: .270/.410/.470
bb: 17%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: doesn't tend to do well on groundballs in general, but does decently otherwise, about average
s/c/z: does not swing much, but especially good at laying off balls; contact rate about average though
r/l: no major split at all
h/a: no major split at all
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: much better babip with runners on thus far; probably hooks ball in hole a lot

RF Austin Kearns (R)

proj: .260/.350/.410
bb: 11%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye with average contact skill
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhp, 1.1 k/bb vs lhp; only .775/.827 split overall career though
h/a: no major split
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

2B Ronnie Belliard (R)

proj: .270/.330/.420
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: below average by a little due to lack of power
s/c/z: average across the board
r/l: .727/.828
h/a: .773/.739
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Jesus Flores (R)

proj: .245/.305/.410
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 17%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been above average but will probably fall due to high popup rate
s/c/z: hacker but pithchers still challenge him
r/l: 5.1 k/bb vs rhp, 3.5 k/bb vs lhp; .633/.802 ops split but mostly due to very high babip vs lhp that probably won't persist
h/a: struggles more at home so far in career but probably just noise
p/o: very distinct pull hitter; only rarely goes the other way at all
other: far more successful against finesse pitchers thus far with lots of trouble against power pitchers


The Nats should have a solid couple of hitters on the bench every day, so they do have some pinch hitting threats.

C Josh Bard (S)

proj: .265/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: about average overall; a little below average on groundballs since he doesn't get many infield hits and a bit high on flyballs since he doesn't pop out in the infield much
s/c/z: above average contact skill, average strike zone judgment
r/l: no major split
h/a: better k/bb at home (1.3 vs 1.8) and more power at home, but babip higher on road; probably still better at home despite babip causing reverse platoon split
p/o: spreads ball around as lhb but slight pull hitter as rhb
other: none

C Wil Nieves (R)

proj: .245/.290/.325
bb: 5.5%
k: 14%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: lack of power leads to it being below average since its low on flyballs; lack of speed leads to pretty low babip on groundballs too
s/c/z: poor strike zone judgment, but not terrible
r/l: seems typical but not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around evenly
other: none

IF Alberto Gonzalez (R)

proj: .260/.310/.380
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: low due to high infield fly rate and low infield hit rate
s/c/z: patient but not especially good discipline; good contact skill though
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: tends to be a pull hitter but not much info
other: none

1B/OF Josh Willingham (R)

proj: .265/.355/.485
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: low swing rate in general, average contact skill
r/l: better k/bb and power numbers vs lhb but reverse babip split masks that
h/a: seemingly better on the road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Elijah Dukes (R)

proj: .265/.365/.465
bb: 14%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been low but seems to profile as about average
s/c/z: good eye but poor contact skill
r/l: more power against lhp but not much difference otherwisee
h/a: much better k/bb at home: 1.2 vs 2.0
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

UTL Willie Harris (L)

proj: .255/.345/.390
bb: 10.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 48%
iff: 10%
ifh: 7%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: does not swing much
r/l: better vs rhp, primarily due to k/bb difference (1.5 vs 3.2)
h/a: not much difference
p/o: pull hitter


The Phillies will need to stay patient against all three starters they face this series.  John Lannan is probably going to be the hardest since he is better against lefties, and actually better all around.  Daniel Cabrera has major control problems and major troubles with lefties.  The Phillies should be able to hit him well if they are patient and wait on their pitches.  Martis seems somewhat prone to wildness as well, and as a mediocre righty, he does not seem like a great threat to the Phillies.  Lannan is actually a pretty decent pitcher, and as a groundball inducing lefty, he will be tough for the Phils to face.  He does not strike out many guys and he does struggle a lot against righties.

MONDAY STARTER: Daniel Cabrera (R)

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 24% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .681/.827; 1.5 k/bb vs 1.2
h/a: many more hr surrendered at home but slightly better k/bb


proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 20% ch, 10% sl, 9% cb
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info


proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 60% fb, 16% sl, 12% cb, 11% ch, 1% ct
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 2.3 vs lhb; .719/.840 ops
h/a: slightly better on road but not much info


proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 20% ch, 17% sl
r/l: 1.6 k/bb vs rhb, 2.8 k/bb vs lhb; .827/.686 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb


proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 48% in minors so probably about average in majors perhaps (?)
pitches: ?
r/l: better against righties in minors
h/a: ?


The Nats lack a dominant arm in the bullpen, but their closer is Joel Hanrahan.  He is a bit wild, and so the Phillies should be patient if he comes in.  The Nats have three lefties in their pen, but none are all that fantastic.  Beimel, a sinkerballing lefty, is probably the best of the bunch.  The left-handed heart of the Phillies lineup will likely have to face these guys once the starters come out, but these are not the kind of lefties that will dominate them.  The Nats bullpen overall is full of guys who induce groundballs, but are prone to wildness.  None really has the kind of stuff that blows you away, but scoring off the Nats bullpen will be a matter of putting runners on and hitting line drives, while avoiding the double play ball.

CL Joel Hanrahan (R)

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Joe Beimel (L)

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 85% fb (sinkers coded as fastballs), 7% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 0.9 vs 2.3 k/bb, platoon splits not even as deep as would be give strength of lhb faced vs rhb
h/a: 1.5 k/bb at home 1.1 k/bb on road, but ops split not different

Saul Rivera (R)

proj avg: 3.90 EAR, 3.9 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 45% fb, 34% sl, 19% ct, 2% ch
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: much better at home (2.1 k/bb vs 1.2)

Michael Hinckley (L)

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 67% fb, 33% cb
r/l: major loogy probably, but tough to tell from limited info
h/a: not enough info

Steven Shell (R)

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 28% cb, 7% sl, 4% ch, 2% sf
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Julian Tavarez (R)

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 53% fb, 25% sl, 15% ch, 8% sf
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.0 vs lhb; .734/.827 ops
h/a: 1.75 k/bb at home, 1.3 on road

Wil Ledezma (L)

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 68% fb, 18% sl, 14% ch
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.9 vs lhb; not much of a split on ops, but that's due to higher quality lhb faced
h/a: nothing abnormal