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Phillies at Nationals: May 15-17 (4 games)

The Philadelphia Phillies (16-16) will head to Washington meet President Barack Obama (1-0) and then play four games against the Washington Nationals (11-21) in three days.  The Nationals have not been quite as bad as their record this year, and their offense has actually been quite good.  Their bullpen has been terrible and their starting pitching has beeen bad, too, which explains their terrible record.  The Phillies still should be able to do well against them this weekend.  They face a couple of lefties to start the series, but neither are spectacular, and the Phillies should be able to handle them well this time.  That is, if John Lannan doesn't kill any more of our players.  After putting Chase Utley on the DL with a HBP in 2007 and bunting a ball that caused Cole Hamels to sprain his ankle hard enough to get pulled in the 5th and to miss a start after that, the Phillies should have armed guards against John Lannan.  Lannan has not been great this year.  He has managed an ERA of 3.89, but he has 20 K and 15 BB in 39.1 IP this year.  He has succeeded on the back of a 58% groundball rate.  His start last week against the Diamondbacks seemed like an early Kyle Kendrick start with 0 runs in 6 IP, with a couple double plays.  Lannan will face up against Joe Blanton.  Blanton is coming off a frustrating start where he surrendered six runs in eight innings against the Braves.  He has struggled with the longball this year, despite getting a decent amount of strikeouts and keeping the ball on the ground.


Game one Saturday will put Scott Olsen against Brett Myers.  Olsen has a 7.00 ERA this year, but he has not been quite that bad.  He probably should have an ERA around 5.  He had a very effective start against the Phillies a couple weeks ago, going 5.2 and surrendered just a run thanks to 10 groundballs and 6 strikeouts out of 24 batters faced.  Olsen struggles a lot against RHB, so hopefully Werth has a good game and Rollins and Victorino ought to wake up.  Brett Myers is coming off a no decision against the Braves in which he surrendered only 1 run in 6 innings, but only struck out 3.  He struck out only 1 in 5.1 IP the start beforehand as well, as his K/9 falls.  Myers has struggled, surrendering eight homeruns in the first four games he pitched this year, which made his last two starts seem better.  However, a few bad pitches does not change the fact that he was striking guys out then.  If he could both strike guys out and concentrate enough to avoid throwing meatballs over the middle of the plate, how good could Myers be?  Let's hope we catch a glimpse this Saturday afternoon.

Game two on Saturday should be a fun one, as the Phillies send J.A. Happ on the mound to audition for either Jamie Moyer or Chan Ho Park's rotation spot (whichever frees up first), and Happ should expect lots of run support as the somehow lucky righty Daniel Cabrera and his 0.46 K/BB rate (yes, you read that rate) will pitch to the Phillies mashing lefties on Saturday night.  Cabrera has kept his rotation spot thanks to flyballs not leaving the yard at a normal rate.  That's not his credit.  He's leaving the balls up there and the hitters aren't hitting them far enough.  Cabrera apparently is incredibly talented but has not put it together.

Sunday will put Chan Ho Park in line to try to get his third straight excellent start.  He'll face Jordan Zimmerman, who has been unlucky this year.  Zimmerman has struck out 26 and walked 8 in 29 innings to start his career.  He has only surrendered 29 flyballs out of 85 balls in play (34%), but 5 of those have left the yard.  Zimmerman is bound to pick up some luck soon enough, so Sunday could be difficult if he does.

The series should be a pretty intense one, as the two teams will play 4 games in 46 hours, amounting to around 40% of their waking hours during that time span.

 

EDIT: Andrew Carpenter will start in J.A. Happ's spot against Daniel Cabrera and night game of Saturday's doubleheader.  I've added a brief profile of his below.  Miguel Cairo has been designated for assignment (finally!).


MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton vs John Lannan
Saturday, 1:05-- Brett Myers vs Scott Olsen
Saturday, 7:05-- (EDIT) ANDREW CARPENTER vs Daniel Cabrera
Sunday, 1:35-- Chan Ho Park vs Jordan Zimmerman

EDIT: I thought it would help to see the pitch counts of the relievers from Friday's game to give a sense of who might be available in game two:

PHILLIES:

Durbin: 13; Eyre: 8; Madson: 13; Lidge: 21; Condrey: 5; Happ: 42

NATIONALS:

Mock: 2; Villone: 6; Colome: 11; Beimel: 20; Taverez: 35; Hanrahan: 36; Wells: 51


From this, I'd have to assume that Lidge is unavailable for the Phillies, since he did so poorly and threw 21 pitches.  The Nationals probably don't have Tavarez, Hanrahan, or Wells, and Beimel may or may not be available.  I think other than Beimel, the Nats will have to rely on Mock, Villone, and Colome unless they also make a move overnight as well.


More BABIP details included below, as I do the player by player matchups while using my BABIP projections from my article last week.

NATIONALS

LINEUP

The Nationals' hitters are not their problem.  They are managing 5.3 runs/game, and they have a number of solid hitters.  They are pretty solid from top to bottom.  Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .357 after just ending a 30-game hitting strike.  Like any hitter who has a hitting streak like that, Zimmerman was the beneficiary of a lot of luck.  His BABIP is .394.  He has a pretty normal line drive rate (21.2% line drives), so that is even more surprising.  He also has popped out quite a few times this year, which makes his BABIP all the more improbable.  He has 8 homeruns already, so he's clearly hitting the ball harder than last year in general though.  Nick Johnson has an excellent eye, and is a good unconventional fit for the two hole.  He bats before Zimmerman.  After Zimmerman is power hitter Adam Dunn.  Dunn already has 11 homeruns this year, and is walking at the same pace while cutting back on his strikeouts.  He's had some luck on balls in play too, but his .310 average looks very impressive.  The Nationals have a pretty right-handed lineup othr than Johnson & Dunn, and leadoff hitter Christian Guzman is a switch hitter.


(1) SS Cristian Guzman (S): .390/.390/.500


proj: .295/.335/.420
bb: 5%
k: 12%
gb: 55%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: solid ground ball rate puts him around .315-.320.  My system puts him at .314.
s/c/z: fair strike judgment but plus contact skill
r/l: poorer strike zone judgment as rhb but more power
h/a: .743/.645 career
p/o: more of a pull hitter against rhb, but some pull tendencies against lhb too
other: none


(2) 1B Nick Johnson (L): .333/.411/.447

proj: .270/.410/.470
bb: 17%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: doesn't tend to do well on groundballs in general, but does decently otherwise, about average.  My system does not project him as he had less than 300 PA last year.
s/c/z: does not swing much, but especially good at laying off balls; contact rate about average though
r/l: no major split at all
h/a: no major split at all
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: much better babip with runners on thus far; probably hooks ball in hole a lot


(3) 3B Ryan Zimmerman (R): .357/.408/.608


proj: .285/.350/.475
bb: 8.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: tends to hit around .315 on BIP since he hits a lot of groundballs in the whole.  My system puts him at .314.
s/c/z: about average across the board
r/l: .758/.931; 2.6 k/bb vs rhp, 1.2 vs lhp; and slightly more power against lhp too
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none


(4) LF Adam Dunn (L): .310/.444/.638


proj: .245/.380/.490
bb: 17.5%
k: 31%
gb: 34%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: somewhat low, around .290 career, mostly bc of low babip on groundballs due to the shift.  My system puts him at .278.
s/c/z: good eye, laying off pitches out of the strike zone; poor contact skills but not as bad as you might expect; sees few strikes
r/l: .932/.833; biggest difference is 1.4 k/bb vs rhb and 2.0 k/bb vs lhb
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: definitepull hitter
other: nothing abnormal; power lefties tend to do better with men on, but he hasn't in his career


(5) CF Elijah Dukes (R): .280/.353/.477

proj: .265/.365/.465
bb: 14%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been low but seems to profile as about average according to most systems.  My system actually puts him at about .316.
s/c/z: good eye but poor contact skill
r/l: more power against lhp but not much difference otherwisee
h/a: much better k/bb at home: 1.2 vs 2.0
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none


(6) RF Austin Kearns (R): .229/.373/.446

proj: .260/.350/.410
bb: 11%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: average all around.  My system has him at .299.
s/c/z: very good eye with average contact skill
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhp, 1.1 k/bb vs lhp; only .775/.827 split overall career though
h/a: no major split
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers


(7) C Jesus Flores (R): .311/.382/.522

proj: .245/.305/.410
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 17%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been above average but will probably fall due to high popup rate.  My system puts him at .278.
s/c/z: hacker but pithchers still challenge him
r/l: 5.1 k/bb vs rhp, 3.5 k/bb vs lhp; .633/.802 ops split but mostly due to very high babip vs lhp that probably won't persist. 
h/a: struggles more at home so far in career but probably just noise
p/o: very distinct pull hitter; only rarely goes the other way at all
other: far more successful against finesse pitchers thus far with lots of trouble against power pitchers


(8) 2B Anderson Hernandez (S): .282/.378/.346

proj: .240/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 7%
ifh: 9%
babip: slightly below average due to weak hits and poor contact, but he's bound to be good on groundballs.  My system does not project him since he had less than 300 PA last year.
s/c/z: average thus far
r/l: probably a little better as rhb against lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: so far he seems to be a bit of an opposite field hitter
other: none



BENCH


The Nationals bench is weaker with Lastings Milledge demoted to AAA and subsequently injured.  Josh Willingham has been struggling to get hits, but has hit for power.  He is the Nats best threat on the bench.  The rest of the bench is pretty weak.

C Wil Nieves (R): .276/.300/.310


proj: .245/.290/.325
bb: 5.5%
k: 14%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: lack of power leads to it being below average since its low on flyballs; lack of speed leads to pretty low babip on groundballs too.  My system does not project him.
s/c/z: poor strike zone judgment, but not terrible
r/l: seems typical but not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around evenly
other: none

1B/OF Josh Willingham (R): .194/.324/.484


proj: .265/.355/.485
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: average all around-- my system has him at .305.
s/c/z: low swing rate in general, average contact skill
r/l: better k/bb and power numbers vs lhb but reverse babip split masks that
h/a: seemingly better on the road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers


2B Ronnie Belliard (R): .163/.200/.233


proj: .270/.330/.420
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: below average by a little due to lack of power according to most systems, but my system has him at .308.
s/c/z: average across the board
r/l: .727/.828
h/a: .773/.739
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


IF Alex Cintron (S): .050/.136/.050


proj avg: .270/.310/.380
bb: 5%
k: 14%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: about average overall.  My system does not project him.
s/c/z: free swinger with above average contact and okay eye; thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .694/.757
h/a: .728/.693
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


UTL Willie Harris (L): .226/.359/.387


proj: .255/.345/.390
bb: 10.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 48%
iff: 10%
ifh: 7%
babip: average all around-- my system has him at .302.
s/c/z: does not swing much
r/l: better vs rhp, primarily due to k/bb difference (1.5 vs 3.2)
h/a: not much difference
p/o: pull hitter
other: none



ROTATION


The Phillies will need to stay patient against all three starters they face this series.  John Lannan is probably going to be the hardest since he is better against lefties, and actually better all around.  Scott Olsen will pitch the day game of Saturday's doubleheader.    He has struggled for the most part this year, though he did have a good game a couple weeks ago against the Phillies.  The second game of Saturday's doubleheader will be another shot for Daniel Cabrera.  Cabrera has a 4.98 ERA, but he has surrendered 28 walks and only struck out 13 in 34.1 innings.  He has only survived due to an unsustainably low 5.3% HR/Flyball rate.  The Phillies should be able to score a lot of runs off the struggling righty.  On Sunday, the Phillies will face Jordan Zimmerman.  He has actually been pretty strong this year in terms of strikeouts and walks, but has struggled to have an ERA that reflects this.




FRIDAY STARTER: John Lannan (L): 3.89 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.78 FIP


proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 60% fb, 16% sl, 12% cb, 11% ch, 1% ct
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 2.3 vs lhb; .719/.840 ops
h/a: slightly better on road but not much info

Lannan vs. Phillies:


Rollins: 5/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 8/15, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 0 XBH
Victorino: 6/13, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 3/11, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 5/9, 1 HR, 1 BB,0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K


SATURDAY GAME ONE STARTER: Scott Olsen (L): 7.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.25 HR/9, 4.88 FIP


proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 20% ch, 17% sl
r/l: 1.6 k/bb vs rhb, 2.8 k/bb vs lhb; .827/.686 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Olsen vs. Phillies:


Rollins: 7/40, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 4/27, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
Howard: 13/27, 3 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 7/16, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 4/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 3/5, 1 BB, 1 K


SATURDAY GAME TWO STARTER: Daniel Cabrera (R): 4.98 ERA, 7.3 BB/9, 3.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 5.81 FIP


proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 24% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .681/.827; 1.5 k/bb vs 1.2
h/a: many more hr surrendered at home but slightly better k/bb

Cabrera vs Phillies:


Ibanez: 9/29, 5 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 2 SF
Stairs: 5/23, 1 2B, 5 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Rollins: 4/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 1/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K


SUNDAY STARTER: Jordan Zimmerman (L): 5.90 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.55 HR/9, 4.67 FIP


proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 48% in minors so probably about average in majors perhaps (?)
pitches: ?
r/l: better against righties in minors
h/a: ?

Zimmerman: has not pitched against any Phillies



NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Shairon Martis (R): 4.10 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.35 FIP


proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 20% ch, 10% sl, 9% cb
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Martis vs. Phillies:


Howard: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Marson: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 3/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K




BULLPEN


The Nats lack a dominant arm in the bullpen, but their closer is Joel Hanrahan.  He is a bit wild, and so the Phillies should be patient if he comes in.  The Nats have two lefties in their pen, but none are all that fantastic.  Beimel, a sinkerballing lefty, is probably the better of the two.  The left-handed heart of the Phillies lineup will likely have to face him once or twice, once the starters come out, but he is not the kind of lefties that will dominate them as his K/9 is way below average.  The other lefty is Ron Villone who recently joined the team.  The Nats bullpen overall is full of guys who induce groundballs, but are prone to wildness.  None really has the kind of stuff that blows you away, but scoring off the Nats bullpen will be a matter of putting runners on and hitting line drives, while avoiding the double play ball.  The Nationals bullpen has been in a constant state of change, and each time the Phillies have faced them, I have to redo all of these numbers as they keep cycling in and out new guys.  In fact, the Nationals have already used 12 relief pitchers this year.

CL Joel Hanrahan (R): 6.28 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.79 FIP

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Hanrahan vs Phillies:


Werth: 0/7, 4 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 1/10, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/7, 1 BB, 6 K
Rollins: 2/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Coste: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Joe Beimel (L): 3.97 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.26 FIP


proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 85% fb (sinkers coded as fastballs), 7% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 0.9 vs 2.3 k/bb, platoon splits not even as deep as would be give strength of lhb faced vs rhb
h/a: 1.5 k/bb at home 1.1 k/bb on road, but ops split not different

Beimel vs Phillies:


Rollins: 3/10, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/5, 3 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Cairo: 1/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/,1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K


Julian Tavarez (R): 5.65 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.74 FIP


proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 53% fb, 25% sl, 15% ch, 8% sf
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.0 vs lhb; .734/.827 ops
h/a: 1.75 k/bb at home, 1.3 on road

Tavarez vs Phillies:


Rollins: 10/26, 4 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Cairo: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/6, 0 BB, 4 K
Coste: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Kip Wells (R): 4.40 ERA, 5.7 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.73 FIP

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 70% sl, 12% sl, 10% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .755/.807
h/a: .756/.802

Wells vs Phillies:


Stairs: 3/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/18, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Utley: 4/15, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Cairo: 3/11, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/5, 1 3B, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Ruiz: 0/2, 2 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


Garrett Mock (R): 4.66 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.01 FIP


proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 20% cb, 11% ch, 8% sl, 2% ct
r/l: .689/.704
h/a: .730/.643

Mock vs Phillies:


Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Ron Villone (L): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 2.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.64 FIP


proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 68% fb, 26% sl, 6% ch
r/l: .781 vs .701 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .781 vs .731 ops; 1.5 vs 1.4 k/bb

Villone vs Phillies:


Cairo: 6/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Stairs: 1/7, 6 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 2/6, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/7, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB


Jesus Colome (R): had not played before this series


proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 34%
pitches: 71% fb, 27% sl, 1% ch
r/l: 2.0 vs 0.95 k/bb, .698 vs .817 ops
h/a: .725 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb

Kensing vs Phillies:


Rollins: 3/10, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K




PHILLIES


The Phillies have managed 5.3 runs/game but you wouldn't know it from watching them lately.  Leadoff hitter and former MVP Jimmy Rollins continues to hover around the Mendoza line, and only has two homeruns this year.  Shane Victorino is no longer hitting the ball very well, though overall has likely improved his power skills somewhat this year which is a huge improvement for him.  Chase Utley hurt his foot on a HBP a couple weeks ago and his average has plummeted since.  He still seems to be hitting the ball hard, though, but just missing more and hitting it at people.  His homerun boom this year has come at the expense of a doubles drought, which means he probably isn't actually more powerful than before, but just more deep flyballs are leaving the yard.  His BABIP should pick back up and his HR rate should fall.  That still makes him the most valuable second basemen in the league and one of the most valuable players in the league.  Howard is suddenly striking out more in the past few days.  Werth has been crushing the ball overall recently, and Ibanez has fallen off his pace a little bit but has still hit the ball very well.  Feliz has seen improved patience at the plate but his average is a BABIP mirage.  Carlos Ruiz finally seems to be hitting the ball and reaching base at an incredible pace to catch up for some of his bad luck earlier.  My BABIP models continue to project him to look better than he has been in recent years, so there's a reasonable chance that maybe he is actually the .260-.270 hitter that my computer keeps telling me he is.


LINE UP




1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .200/.238/.296


projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average.  my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb.  otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .252/.296/.424


proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate.  my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .278/.414/.574


proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs.  my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .262/.338/.492


proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep.  also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though.  probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes.  however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him.  he makes terrible contact overall though.  my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!"  in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably.  his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp.  he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip.  i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road.  very similar hr numbers.  2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .288/.394/.541


proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average.  my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .336/.403/.672


proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand.  my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .283/.355/.396

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls.  my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes.  swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home.  likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related


8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .257/.409/.371


proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey.  his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot.  my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers






BENCH


Matt Stairs has been the hero of the Phillies bench, hitting the ball very hard all year, managing a ridiculous 1.257 OPS.  Dobbs was the superstar pinch hitter last year but is hitting .138 with no extra base hits this year.  Bruntlett is doig terribly, hitting .130.  If Manuel would commit to just using him against LHP, he would find that Bruntlett is actually a league average hitter against lefties.  He just hits worse than many left-handed pitchers against righties.  Cairo and Coste have been pretty useless this year from the right side.

C Chris Coste (R): .204/.316/.367


proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches.  my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat


IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .130/.214/.261


proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually  average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb.  he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .138/.219/.138


proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters.  given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp.  in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp.  he should never see them.  absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .368/.520/.737


proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around.  my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

DESIGNATED FOR ASSIGNMENT: IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R): .125/.125/.125


proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none



ROTATION


I keep saying the Phillies' starters will be fine and they do keep improving.  Moyer will not start this series, which is good, because he's the one I'm most concerned about.  The strikeout and walk numbers for these guys have been fine.  Friday's starter, Joe Blanton, has had struggles but they have been just bad luck on HR/Flyball rates, which will normalize.  His 6.82 ERA should get down into the 4's soon enough.  Myers could stand to improve his strikeout rate a little bit, but he hasn't been terrible.  His recent strikeout numbers have been much better, but he still seems to have problems with consistency and concentration on the mound.  He will start the day game of Saturday's doubleheader.  Game two of the doubleheader will be started by J.A. Happ, who will make his first start of the year.  Happ was many people's choice for the fifth starter instead of Chan Ho Park, though with Moyer's struggles, this may be an audition for a couple of roles.  Happ is a mediocre pitcher in reality, but the grass tends to be greener on the other side, and he does seem appealing from afar.  He does struggle with control and keeping the ball on the ground and getting people to swing and miss at his offspeed and breaking stuff is essential for his success.  Sunday will be Chan Ho Park, who looks to put together a third start in a row.  I championed him at the end of Spring Training, saying that his K/BB numbers warranted giving him a shot.  I've tempored that excitement somewhat, though his performances in the last two games indicate that he is a five-hole starter in reality.


FRIDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.82 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 5.66 FIP, 35% GB


proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Nationals:


Dukes: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Zimmerman: 5/11, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Dunn: 3/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Guzman: 3/9, 0 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Flores: 1/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Kearns: 2/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Harris: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cintron: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K


SATURDAY GAME ONE STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 4.81 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 6.30 FIP, 45% GB


proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does.  My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments.  If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up.  However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take.  For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming.  A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Nationals:


zimmerman: 12/32, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Kearns: 7/25, 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Johnson: 5/23, 3 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 8 K, 1 HBP
Guzman: 9/25, 0 BB, 4 K
Dunn: 3/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 6 K
Belliard: 4/18, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Willingham: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3K, 1 HBP
Harris: 0/13, 3 BB, 4 K
Flores: 2/15, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Cintron: 4/10, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 5/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dukes: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K


SATURDAY GAME TWO STARTER: Andrew Carpenter: AAA numbers-- 4.72 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.68 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.7 HR/9

gb: 40% in minors

pitches: last year in 1 inning of work in MLB, he threw 73% fb, 13% sf, 7% sl, 7% ch

r/l: seems better against righties in minors

h/a: not enough info

Carpenter: has not pitched against any Nationals (unless it was in the minors)

 



SUNDAY STARTER: Chan Ho Park (R): 6.00 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.48 FIP, 43% GB


proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Nationals:


Belliard: 3/16, 0 BB, 5 K
Guzman: 1/11, 2 BB, 1 K
harris: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Dunn: 0/1, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Willingham: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 1/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 1/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K


NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 8.15 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 2.8 HR/9, 7.63 FIP, 38% GB


proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Nationals:


Guzman: 14/43, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Belliard: 8/30, 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 Sac
Zimmerman: 4/24, 1 2B, 4 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 2/23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Johnson: 1/15, 4 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Flores: 6/18, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Harris: 4/15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Kearns: 5/14, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 5/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Dukes: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Dunn: 1/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cintron: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K


NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 5.04 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 36% GB


proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant.  ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar.  most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Nationals:


Zimmerman: 11/39, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Kearns: 6/23, 2 2B, 5 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Belliard: 6/25, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Willingham: 3/13, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K
Flores: 1/14, 0 BB, 8 K
Johnson: 3/13, 3 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Dunn: 1/9, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
Dukes: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Guzman: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 0/6, 1 BB, 4 K
Hernandez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K



BULLPEN


The Phillies bullpen has obviously been disappointing thus far this year.  Lidge has given up an incredible number of homeruns (5) for just 14.2 IP.  Hitters have been hitting the ball hard off him, and partly due to his poor control, walking a number of hitters as well.  Ryan Madson has been very good thus far, striking out hitters at quite the pace.  He will eventually start giving up homeruns, but his ERA should stay low.  The rest of the bullpen is a question mark.  Eyre and Taschner have both been very bad, struggling to strike guys out and walking many.  Durbin has been up and down, and Condrey is pitching over his head thus far.

CL Brad Lidge (R): 8.59 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 3.1 HR/9, 7.32 FIP, 27% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Nationals:


Dunn: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB (1 IBB), 9 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Kearns: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Belliard: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 2/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Harris: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 0/3, 1 Bb, 0 K
Zimmerman: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Dukes: 0/2, 1 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Flores: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Guzman: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Ryan Madson (R): 2.35 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.08 FIP, 34% GB


proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Nationals:


Zimmerman: 7/16, 3 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 5/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 6/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 3/6, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 HBP
Belliard: 1/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Guzman: 5/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 3/4, 1 HR, 1 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Flores: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Harris: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Dukes: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K


Scott Eyre (L): 5.14 ERA, 7.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.78 FIP, 41% GB


proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Nationals:


Dunn: 5/18, 3 HR, 2 Bb, 9 K, 1 SF
Johnson: 2/13, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Guzman: 1/7, 2 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Zimmerman: 0/2, 1 Bb, 0 K
Harris: 1/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Hernandez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
WIllingham: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 0/1 , 0 BB, 0 K
Dukes: 1 BB
Flores: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Jack Taschner (L): 4.50 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 6.09 FIP, 37% GB


proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Nationals:


Dunn: 1/8, 2 BB, 3 K
Johnson: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Zimmerman: 1/3, 2 BB (1 HBP), 1 K
Guzman: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Harris: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Dukes: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Flores: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 3/3, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K


Chad Durbin (R): 4.19 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 30% GB


proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Nationals:


Guzman: 5/20, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Belliard: 2/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 1/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Kearns: 1/6, 1 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dukes: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Harris: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Dunn: 2/2, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Flores: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Clay Condrey (R): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 B/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.74 FIP, 48% GB


proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Nationals:


Zimmerman: 2/15, 0 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 2/8, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Dukes: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 4/6, 2 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Kearns: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/6, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Flores: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Harris: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Guzman: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cintron: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


J.A. Happ (L): 2.75 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.67 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Nationals:


Belliard: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dukes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Flores: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Harris: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1 BB
Johnson: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zimmerman: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)


proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Nationals:


Belliard: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Harris: 0/8, 0 BB, 5 K
Johnson: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Cintron: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Guzman: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 2 BB
Flores: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K