clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Phillies at Reds: May 19-21

The Phillies (20-16) take on the Reds (20-17) in Cincinnati this week for a three game series.  In this article, I'll break down the detials on the individual player, but due to Baseball Prospectus Idol demands (as well as working on finishing my PhD!), I do not have time to go into as much depth as I usually do in my series previews.  I did almost all the number gathering for this series and the next, but I just didn't have time to make comments and highlight certain players like I have in my previous work.  I have updated all the player's stats at least and you can see the hitter's splits, batted ball information, etc. as before.


MATCHUPS:
TUESDAY, 7:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Johnny Cueto (R)
WEDNESAY, 7:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Aaron Harang (R)
THURSDAY, 12:35-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Micah Owings (R)

 

REDS


LINE UP

1) CF Willy Taveras (R): .293/.351/.376

projection average (proj): .270/.330/.340
projected BB/PA (bb): 6.5%
projected K/AB (k): 16.5%
career gb% (gb): 53%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 12%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .320-- does poorly on flyballs & linedrives due to weak power; very high on grounders and hits a lot of

them; .320 might be high be probably is realistic
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): patient, but he gets thrown a lot of strikes; pretty good eye
righty/lefty (r/l): .675 vs .656 ops; 2.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .686 vs .656 ops; 2.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): none

2) 3B Jerry Hairston, Jr. (R): .247/.298/.433

proj: .265/.330/.400
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 37%
iff: 16%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected slightly below average, but given lack of significant power, high popup rate, and mediocre groundball rate, that may be too high
s/c/z: patient, with pretty good eye, good contact skill, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .702 ops; 1.6 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .715 vs .683 ops; 1.3 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

3) 1B Joey Votto (L): .366/.470/.589


proj: .285/.365/.490
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 5%
babip: does well on flyballs because he avoids popups, not particularly fast, spreads ball around well; projected .320-.330 which seems about right
s/c/z: good eye, not particularly patient, not quite average contact skill
r/l: .926 vs .849 ops; 1.4 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .917 vs .884 ops; 1.7 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: great against finesse pitchers

4) 2B Brandon Phillips (R): .262/.336/.454


proj: .270/.320/.440
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 47%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected slightly below average which makes sense given popout rate and mediocre power
s/c/z: free swinger, poor eye, somewhat poor contact skill
r/l: .687 vs .846 ops; 3.5 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .766 vs .700 ops; 2.7 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Jay Bruce (L): .231/.309/.507


proj: .275/.330/.500
bb: 7.5%
k: 26.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 17%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected very high despite high popup rate; good power and pretty fast, so maybe not projected all that much higher than it should (.325ish projection, should be .310

or so, i'd say)
s/c/z: free swinger, poor contact skill
r/l: .907 vs .555 ops; 2.8 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .903 vs .676 ops; 2.1 vs 4.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

6) C Ramon Hernandez (R): .283/.349/.354


proj: .260/.320/.415
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 46%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, good contact, average patience, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .735 vs .774 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .725 ops; 1.7 both ways
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

7) LF Laynce Nix (L): .294/.338/.603


proj: .250/.300/.350
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected about average which seems reasonable, not much power and pops out a lot, but he still does have decent speed
s/c/z: free swinger, not a great eye, poor contact skill
r/l: .719 vs .486 ops; 5.2 vs 10.0 k/bb
h/a: .703 vs .666 ops; 5.0 vs 6.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers


8) SS Alex Gonzalez (R): .171/.225/.280


proj: .255/.310/.410
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 35%
iff: 18%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected only around .290 but given high popup rate, weak power, poor eye, it seems that may be overestimating him
s/c/z: poor eye, impatient, average contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .691 vs .690 ops; 4.0 vs 3.3 k/bb
h/a: .681 vs .701 ops; 3.8 vs 3.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none




BENCH


C Ryan Hanigan (R): .311/.360/.333


proj: .265/.340/.360
bb: 10%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 16%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around average.  high groundball rate, but high popup rate and weak power indicates this is probably way too high
s/c/z: good eye and contact, very patient
r/l: .801 vs .643 ops; 0.7 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .819 vs .645 ops; 0.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

3B Adam Rosales (R): .271/.353/.407


proj: .250/.320/.430
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 41%
iff: 19%
ifh: 14%
babip: high popup rate so may be overprojected
s/c/z: pretty good eye, patient, not great contact
r/l: .688 vs .842 ops in minors last year
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems to spread ball around well
other: none


IF Paul Janish (R): .313/.389/.406


proj: .235/.300/.350
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 34%
iff: 18%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .275-.280, but that seems even too high given popup rate and speed
s/c/z: okay eye but not patient, okay contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .520 vs .768 ops; 4.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .588 vs .637 ops; 4.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

OF Chris Dickerson (L): .230/.356/.365


proj: .250/.330/.420
bb: 11%
k: 32%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330ish which might be a bit high
s/c/z: averag eye, average patient, poor contact skill
r/l: .877 vs .838 ops; 2.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .984 vs .789 ops; 1.7 vs 2.4 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


OF Darnell McDonald (R): .212/.257/.273


proj: .260/.320/.410
bb: 7%
k: 22%
gb: 56%
iff: 20%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected slightly above average (.310ish) which seems possible given high groundball rate.  infield flyrate is high in majors, but that's just 3 popups in 15 flyballs
s/c/z: not all that patient, and bad eye, very bad contact skill too
r/l: .286 vs .571 ops (29 & 47 PA); 4.0 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


ROTATION


TUESDAY OPPONENT: Johnny Cueto (R): 1.93 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.69 FIP, 42% GB


proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 8.1 HR/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% sl, 7% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .768 vs .759 ops; 3.6 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .776 vs .752 ops; 2.7 vs 2.1 k/bb

Cueto: has not played any Phillies



WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Aaron Harang (R): 3.44 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.62 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% sl, 3% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .784 vs .735 ops; 3.6 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .757 ops; 2.9 vs 3.1 k/bb

Harang vs Phillies:


Rollins: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/21, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Utley: 7/14, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/11, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/10, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 1/5, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Cairo: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K


THURSDAY OPPONENT: Micah Owings (R): 3.95 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.03 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 HR/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 64% fb, 18% sl, 15% ch, 2% ct, 0.2% cb
r/l: .697 vs .828 ops; 2.7 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .760 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Owings vs Phillies:


Victorino: 1/9, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 3/7, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Howard: 1/7, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


NOT FACING US: Edinson Volquez (R): 4.25 ERA, 5.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 5.19 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 9% cb, 4% sl
r/l: .767 vs .716 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .752 vs .731 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Volquez vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 3/9, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 0/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 2B, 3 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K


NOT FACING US: Bronson Arroyo (R): 6.56 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 6.45 FIP, 42% GB


proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 47% fb, 20% sl, 19% cb, 12% ch, 3% ct
r/l: .709 vs .828 ops; 3.1 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .767 ops; 2.4 vs 2.1 k/bb

Arroyo vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 4/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 2/6, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 SF
Victorino: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Coste: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K


BULLPEN


CL Francisco Cordero (R): 2.40 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.49 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 52% fb, 37% sl, 2% ch, 0.2% sf
r/l: .656 vs .695 ops; 3.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .668 vs .685 ops; 2.3 vs 2.2 k/bb

Cordero vs Phillies:


Ibanez: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Dobbs: 0/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


David Weathers (R): 2.70 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.65 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 59% fb, 33% sl, 8% ch
r/l: .737 vs .791 ops; 2.1 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .780 vs .739 ops; 1.5 vs 1.8 k/bb

Weathers vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/10, 2 2B, 4 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 2/2, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


Jared Burton (R): 4.67 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.38 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 52% ct, 25% fb, 17% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .654 vs .675 ops; 2.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .662 vs .663 ops; 1.8 vs 2.1 k/bb

Burton vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


Arthur Rhodes (L): 0.75 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.97 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 69% fb, 28% sl, 3% ch
r/l: .733 vs .611 ops; 2.0 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .705 vs .684 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb

Rhodes vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 2/7, 3 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


Mike Lincoln (R): 9.64 ERA, 7.1 BB/9, 3.2 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 8.29 FIP, 45 % GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 58% fb, 30% cb, 5% sl, 5% ct, 3% ch
r/l: .779 vs .861 ops; 1.7 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .783 vs .850 ops; 1.6 vs 1.8 k/bb

Lincoln vs Phillies:

Cairo: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Danny Herrera (L): 1.80 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.75 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 60%
pitches: 38% fb, 25% ch, 21% sl, 13% cb, 2% ct
r/l: 1.105 vs .326 ops; 1.6 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.4 k/bb

Herrera vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB (IBB)
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ramon Ramirez (R): 0.86 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.79 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 54% fb, 20% sl, 26% ch, 0.3% sf
r/l: .566 vs .723 ops; 2.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .587 ops; 2.3 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ramirez vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Nick Masset (R)

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 69% fb, 15% sl, 13% cb, 3% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .764 vs .831 ops; 1.4 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .937 vs .637 ops; 1.3 vs 1.2 k/bb

Masset vs Phillies:

Cairo: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
ROllins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K



PHILLIES


LINE UP



1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .222/.268/.320

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average.  my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb.  otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .256/.304/.417

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate.  my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .291/.443/.590


proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs.  my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.346/.517

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep.  also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though.  probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes.  however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him.  he makes terrible contact overall though.  my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!"  in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably.  his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp.  he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip.  i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road.  very similar hr numbers.  2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .294/.396/.540

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average.  my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .357/.425/.714

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand.  my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .308/.380/.425

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls.  my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes.  swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home.  likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related


8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .255/.397/.340

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey.  his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot.  my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers






BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .236/.333/.400

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches.  my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat


IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .138/.206/.276

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually  average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb.  he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .125/.200/.125

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters.  given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp.  in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp.  he should never see them.  absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .318/.500/.636

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around.  my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency




ROTATION


TUESDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 5.04 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant.  ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar.  most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Reds:

Phillips: 1/12, 1 BB, 6 K
Bruce: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Hairston: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Votto: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP


WEDNESDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 8.15 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 2.8 HR/9, 7.64 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Reds:

Hernandez: 5/37, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Hairston: 3/17, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Nix: 1/11, 0 BB, 4 K
Gonzalez: 4/6, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Philips: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K



THURSDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.86 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.56 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games


Blanton vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 3/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 3/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K


NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Brett Myers (R): 4.50 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 6.20 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does.  My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments.  If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up.  However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take.  For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming.  A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 7/23, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Phillips: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Taveras: 3/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Hairston: 0/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Hernandez: 2/5,1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Votto: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Volquez: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Bruce: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K


 



NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.49 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.20 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not faced any Reds






BULLPEN


CL Brad Lidge (R): 8.31 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 6.80 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 0/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Phillips: 0/7, 1 BB, 2 K
Taveras: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Votto: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Nix: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Arroyo: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruce: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K



Ryan Madson (R): 3.57 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.20 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Taveras: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Nix: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K







Scott Eyre (L): 4.00 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 7.44 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Reds:

Phillips: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gonzalez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K






Jack Taschner (L): 3.86 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.95 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Reds:

Votto: 4/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruce: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dickerson: 1 BB
Phillips: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K




Chad Durbin (R): 4.03 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.33 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Reds:

Hernandez: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Hairston: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K



Clay Condrey (R): 2.61 ERA, 2.6 B/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.43 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 0/3, 2 BB (IBB), 1 K
Taveras: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 7.08 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops


Park vs Reds:

Taveras: 3/15, 1 BB, 1 K
Gonzalez: 2/12, 2 BB, 6 K
Hernandez: 4/7, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hairston: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K









Sergio Escalona (L): (1 inning with a hit and a strikeout)

proj avg: unprojected
gb: around 50% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: some of a LOOGY type split in the minors but not strong
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Reds


SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Reds:

Hernandez: 1/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 2/6, 1 BB, 0 K
Nix: 0/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Votto: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruce: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K