It was a month ago that I wrote that the Marlins, then 11-4, were a fluke and due for a regression. They were in first place and the Phillies were a measly 6-8. The Phillies swept the Marlins and are now 24-18, in first place themselves, and the Marlins have barely won any games at all since then and sit in fourth place at 20-25. This article will not have quite the detail of that article, as I'm in the Baseball Prospectus Idol competition and need to start preparing for next week's submission (don't forget to vote!), but I'll link to that old article here. A number of the players have changed, but I think I have the current rosters right. I've also updated the season stats.
Monday will pit Jamie Moyer against Chris Volstad. Volstad has been solid this year, with an ERA of 3.64. He has had significant BABIP luck (.244) but also been unlucky with homeruns (18% HR/Flyball), so overall he probably should be in the low 4's. That will be the toughest game of the series given Moyer's recent struggles. On Tuesday, the Phillies send Joe Blanton to the mound against Andrew Miller. Miller has been wild this year walking over 5 per 9, without striking out many more than 6 per 9. He's been lucky on homeruns per flyball, and will regress...hopefully against us! On Wednesday, the Phils sent Brett Myers out against Hayden Penn. Hayden Penn has only started one game this year (a disastrous start against the Diamondbacks five days ago), but with Nolasco sent to AAA and Anibal Sanchez on the disabled list, Penn will get another shot.
MATCH-UPS:
Monday, 7:05-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Chris Volstad (R)
Tuesday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Andrew Miller (L)
Wednesday, 7:05-- Brett Myers (R) vs Hayden Penn (R)
See below the jump for detailed player statistics and splits, as well as updated batter/pitcher matchups.
LINE UP
1) 3B Emilio Bonifacio (S): .258/.296/.311
projection average (proj): .260/.315/.340
projected BB/PA (bb): 6.5%
projected K/AB (k): 21%
career gb% (gb): 56%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 5%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 14%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): He gets a lot of infield hits, so the infield has to play in, so his groundballs and line drives find their way through more. He also avoids infield popups. So he should be able to hit around .330 on balls in play.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): about average all around
righty/lefty (r/l): thus far he has 16 K's and 1 BB against LHP as RHB.
home/away (h/a): thus far very poor on the road: 5.0 k/bb instead of 2.0.
pull/opposite (p/o): spreads ball around very well from both sides
anything else (other): none
2) LF Jeremy Hermida (L): .271/.383/.387
proj: .270/.355/.445
bb: 11%
k: 25%
gb: 45%
iff: 9%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected pretty high but doesn't seem to profile as such at all
s/c/z: poor eye but average contact
r/l: .793 vs .741; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .729/.828: better on road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none
3) SS Hanley Ramirez (R):
proj: .310/.385/.530
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 10%
babip: excellent babip on groundballs with speed, excellent babip on line drives since he has power and hits deep liners
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact
r/l: .886/.975; 1.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .924/.890
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundballers and relatively weaker against power pitchers than others
4) 1B Jorge Cantu (R): .276/.335/.487
proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 6.5%
k: 19%
gb: 39%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: hacks a lot, makes average contact
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: much better at home, especially in terms of power and babip
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none
5) C John Baker (L): .284/.371/.509
proj: .265/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 23%
gb: 50%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected to be pretty high (.320ish) but he doesn't seem to profile as a high babip guy to me
s/c/z: swings rarely and makes good contact, okay eye
r/l: 1.3 vs 2.5 k/bb, thus far has made weak contact vs lhp
h/a: .908/.763
p/o: pull hitter
other: none
6) 2B Dan Uggla (R): .205/.328/.424
proj: .260/.340/.475
bb: 10%
k: 26%
gb: 37%
iff: 8%
ifh: 9%
babip: pretty good on groundballs, projected to be average
s/c/z: pretty good eye but poor contact
r/l: .854/.761
h/a: .830/.833 but slight improvement in k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none
7) RF Cody Ross (R): .239/.292/.426
proj: .265/.330/.485
bb: 8%
k: 24%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot, but doesn't make good contact
r/l: .729/.941; 3.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: not real splits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none
8) Chris Coghlan (L): .191/.291/.255
proj: .260/.330/.380
bb: 8.5%
k: 15%
gb: 55%
iff: 30% (in first 10 flyballs)
ifh: 6%
babip: high groundball rate but high popout rate; projected around average
s/c/z: not a great eye, average contact
r/l: not much of a split in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems to be a slight pull hitter but tough to know
other: none
BENCH
C Ronny Paulino (R): .232/.348/.357
proj: .265/.325/.405
bb: 8%
k: 19%
gb: 47%
iff: 6%
ifh: 8%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: good eye and somewhat good contact
r/l: .643/.928 career. 2.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .736/.698
p/o: hits to opposite field slightly more
other: struggles against power pitchers
1B Ross Gload (L): .279/.375/.377
proj: .280/.325/.405
bb: 6%
k: 12%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye and good contact but swings a lot, and he sees lots of strikes.
r/l: does as well against lefties in his experiences against him, but he doesn't bat against them rarely and the lack of splits is probably selection bias as he only gets to face weaker lefties
h/a: .775/.713 but similar k/bb numbers
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none
IF Wes Helms (R): .212/.276/.250
proj: .255/.320/.400
bb: 7%
k: 24%
gb: 40%
iff: 6%
ifh: 6%
babip: a little above average as he avoids infield flies
s/c/z: okay eye poor contact
r/l: 4.0 vs 2.1 k/bb; .712/.815 ops
h/a: .776/.717 ops
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around well
other: none
C Brett Hayes (R): 1 for 1 (single)
proj: .230/.280/.350
bb: 5%
k: 21%
gb: about 40% in minors
iff: low 20% range in minors
ifh: ?
babip: seems to hit the ball hard but make poor contact and pop out a lot; probably below average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none
DISABLED LIST: UTL Alfredo Amezaga (S): .217/.261/.261
proj: .260/.320/.355
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 49%
iff: 14%
ifh: 8%
babip: speedy but doesn't make really solid contact; average overall
s/c/z: average eye but above average contact
r/l: .692 vs .519; 1.8 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split
p/o: definite pull hitter as righty; slight pull hitter as lefty
other: none
SENT TO AAA: OF Brett Carroll (R): .143/.217/.143
proj: .235/.290/.400
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 6%
ifh: 14%
babip: not much info to tell; projected below average
s/c/z: free swinger who makes very bad contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none
SENT TO AAA: CF Cameron Maybin (R): .202/.280/.310
proj: .275/.345/.430
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 5%
ifh: 9%
babip: very speedy so probably above average but not as above average as the projections suggest
s/c/z: average eye, poor contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none
ROTATION
MONDAY OPPONENT: Chris Volstad (R): 3.64 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.45 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.64 FIP, 47% GB
proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% cb, 9% ch
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but not much info
Volstad vs Phillies:
Rollins: 4/9, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Utley: 2/7, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Victorino: 1/10, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Ruiz: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
TUESDAY STARTER: Andrew Miller (L): 4.94 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 4.12 FIP, 50% GB
proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 75% fb, 16% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; .841 vs .699 ops though-- probably selection bias as managers avoided putting lefties against him
h/a: .792 vs .823
Miller vs Phillies:
Utley: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/11, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/10, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Victorino: 5/11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB
WEDNESDAY STARTER: Hayden Penn (R): 6.97 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.50 FIP, 52.5% GB
proj avg: 5.20 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 67% fb, 17% ch, 15% cb
r/l: 0.8 vs 0.9 k/bb; 1.135 vs .825 ops (151 vs 172 pa)
h/a: 1.1 vs 0.7 k/bb; 1.003 vs .948 ops (127 vs 196 pa)
Penn vs. Phillies:
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 HBP
Dobbs: 1 BB
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
NOT FACING US: Josh Johnson (R): 2.67 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.92 FIP, 55% GB
proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.7 vs 1.7 k/bb; .666 vs .746 ops
h/a: 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .734 vs .676 ops though
Johnson vs. Phillies:
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 5/16, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 0 XBH
Victorino: 3/16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 3/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 6 K
Coste: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 2 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2
NOT FACING US: Sean West (L): 3.60 ERA, 7.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.55 FIP, 40% GB
proj avg: 6.00 ERA, 6.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40-50% in minors, 40% higher up
pitches: ?
r/l: seems to have pretty deep split in minors but tough to know
h/a: not enough info
West: has not faced any Phillies
BULLPEN
CL Matt Lindstrom (R): 6.50 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.09 FIP, 47% GB
proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 77% fb, 19% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb; .621 vs .714 ops
h/a: .623 vs .704 ops; 3.2 vs 1.5 k/bb
Lindstrom vs Phillies:
Victorino: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1 BB
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Leo Nunez (R): 3.63 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.25 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.89 FIP, 44% GB
proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 61% fb, 20% ch, 19% sl
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.3 k/bb; .727 vs .888 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .731 vs .868 ops
Nunez vs Phillies:
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB
Kiko Calero (R): 2.42 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.39 FIP, 25% GB
proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 66% fb, 29% sl, 5% ch
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .597 vs .791 ops
h/a: not much of a split
Calero vs Phillies:
Feliz: 3/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB (2 IBB), 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 SF
Rollins: 1 SF
Victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dan Meyer (L): 2.79 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.72 FIP, 23% GB
proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 26%
pitches: 64% fb, 17% sl, 19% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; .913 vs .985 ops (selection bias)
h/a: 1.0 vs 1.9 k/bb; .964 vs .908
Meyer vs Phillies:
Ibanez: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke Badenhop (R): 5.75 ERA, 3.5 BB/9 ,8.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.74 FIP, 50% GB
proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 71% fb, 15% sl, 14% ch
r/l: 4.8 k/bb vs rhb, 0.7 k/bb vs lhb; also had huge splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
Badenhop vs. Phillies:
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Brian Sanches (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.81 FIP, 37.5% GB
proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 49% fb, 22% sl, 18% sf, 6% ch, 5% cb
r/l: 1.8 vs 1.1 k/bb; .896 ops both ways
h/a: 1.1 vs 2.1 k/bb; 1.004 vs .745 ops
Sanches vs Phillies:
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Christopher Leroux (R): no major league statistics
proj avg: 5.70 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 50% about in minors but just in low minors
pitches: ?
r/l: seems better against righties actually
h/a: not enough info
Leroux: has not faced any Phillies
DISABLED LIST: Renyel Pinto (L): 2.53 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.32 FIP, 30% GB
proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% ch, 8% sl
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; .680 vs .744 ops (selection bias again)
h/a: .675 vs .734 ops; 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb
Pinto vs Phillies:
Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Utley: 5/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 2/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB
DISABLED LIST: Anibal Sanchez (R): 5.79 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.65 HR/9, 5.38 FIP, 39% GB
proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 57% fb, 19% sl, 16% cb, 8% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .653 vs .780 ops; 2.2 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .668 vs .782; 1.9 vs 1.1 k/bb
Sanchez vs Phillies:
Utley: 5/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 3/12, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 4/8, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Rollins: 4/10, 1 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB
DEMOTED TO AAA: Ricky Nolasco (R): 9.07 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 7. K/9, 1.65 HR/9, 4.80 ERA, 32% GB
proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 5% fb, 27% cb, 16% sl, 5% sf, 1% ch
r/l: 5.1 vs 2.2 k/bb! .682 vs .811 ops
h/a: 3.9 vs 2.8 k/bb but .682 vs .811 ops
Nolasco vs Phillies:
Rollins: 5/19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Utley: 6/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 3/13, 3 HR, 6 BB (4 IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 3/16, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 3/9, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 2/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
PHILLIES
LINE UP
1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .233/.280/.344
projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.
2) 2B Chase Utley (L): .297/.434/.580
proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters
3) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .352/.412/.739
proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none
4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.333/.512
proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position
5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .262/.358/.490
proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year
6) CF Shane Victorino (S): .269/.313/.429
proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year
7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .295/.367/.410
proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related
8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .302/.421/.444
proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought
BENCH
C Chris Coste (R): .250/.319/.393
proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat
IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .118/.179/.235
proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none
IF Greg Dobbs (L): .143/.250/.229
proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers
OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.474/.536
proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency
OF John Mayberry (R): .250/.250/.750
proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none
ROTATION
MONDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 7.62 ERA, 3.05 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 7.21 FIP, 35% GB
proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets
Ramirez: 12/34, 1 3B, 4 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Uggla: 7/32, 2 2B, 1 BB, 12 K
Ross: 6/29, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Cantu: 6/21, 3 BB, 2 K
Hermida: 3/16, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Helms: 4/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Baker: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Paulino: 4/8, 0 BB, 1 K
TUESDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 7.11 ERA, 3.45 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.40 FIP, 40% GB
proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games
Blanton vs Marlins:
Cantu: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Baker: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Uggla: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
WEDNESDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 4.34 ERA, 2.95 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.22 FIP, 48% GB
proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.
Myers vs. Marlins:
Uggla: 12/33, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
Ramirez: 10/28, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 Sac
Hermida: 3/17, 3 BB, 7 K
Ross: 2/13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Cantu: 5/10, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 2/6, 2 BB, 3 K
Helms: 0/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Baker: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
NOT STARTING THIS WEEKEND: Cole Hamels (L): 4.68 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 38% GB
proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.
Hamels vs Marlins:
Ramirez: 9/24, 6 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Uggla: 3/23, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Helms: 6/18, 2 2B, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Ross: 4/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 4/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Cantu: 3/13, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Baker: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
J.A. Happ (L): 2.60 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.65 HR/9, 3.65 FIP, 38% GB
proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info
Happ vs Marlins:
Cantu: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Helms: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
BULLPEN
CL Brad Lidge (R): 9.15 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.75 HR/9, 6.96 FIP, 36% GB
proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007
Lidge vs Marlins:
Helms: 3/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Paulino: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Cantu: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ramirez: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Uggla: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 2/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Baker: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ryan Madson (R): 2.95 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.83 FIP, 39% GB
proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all
Madson vs Marlins:
Ramirez: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Uggla: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Cantu: 2/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Ross: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Baker: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gload: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott Eyre (L): 3.48 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.92 FIP, 38% GB
proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split
Eyre vs Marlins:
Hermida: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 1 BB
Jack Taschner (L): 3.66 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.89 FIP, 35.5% GB
proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb
Taschner vs Marlins:
Cantu: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1 BB
Chad Durbin (R): 4.32 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.99 FIP, 33% GB
proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise
Durbin vs Marlins:
Ramirez: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Baker: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Clay Condrey (R): 2.19 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 50% GB
proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb
Condrey vs Marlins:
Ramirez: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 0/8, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hermida: 1/6, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Helms: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Baker: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Chan Ho Park (R): 6.88 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 43% GB
proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops
Park vs. Marlins:
Ramirez: 5/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/6, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Baker: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bonifacio: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Paulino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)
proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops
Romero vs Marlins:
Helms: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 1 BB
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K