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Phillies at Mets: May 6-7

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The first place Phillies (14-10) take on the Mets (12-13) yet again Wednesday and Thursday, this time in new Citi Field.  The pitching matchup does not look good for Wednesday, with the Phillies sending out Chan Ho Park for what very well might be the last start of his career if it does not go well, and the Mets sending out Johan Santana.  The Phillies have been known to win games against the Mets that they were supposed to lose, so this is certainly still worth watching.  Thursday the matchup is much more even with the Phillies sending out the 46 year old Jamie Moyer and the Mets sending out 25 year old Mike Pelfrey.  Both of them got hit pretty hard their last time out, and both will be looking for redemption.  It should be a quick exciting series.

 

MATCHUPS:

Wednesday 7:10:  Chan Ho Park vs. Johan Santana

Thursday 7:10: Jamie Moyer vs. Mike Pelfrey

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Should these guys have waited to make three shirts all at once?  (via pompomflipflop)


 

I'm going to mostly just copy and paste what I did last Friday for the Phillies/Mets matchups.  I'll update the summary paragraphs a little, the 2009 stats, and the pitcher vs. hitter stats, but I'll leave the career stats in for them.  I'll also fix the rosters because I made a couple mistakes, and I'll demote Oliver Perez to the bullpen for kicks.

METS

 

LINE UP

The Mets have a few superstars in their lineup, and mediocre talent elsewhere.  Jose Reyes and David Wright remain the best left side of an infield of any pair in the game.  Both have struggled in the early going, but should expect great seasons again.  David Wright may be one of the very best players in baseball, and despite the Mets' fans irrational claims of choking, Wright is an excellent hitter in all situations.  Daniel Murphy is the second hitter in the lineup and is an awkward bridge from Reyes to Wright/Delgado/Beltran.  Murphy is a mediocre players in reality, whose great average last season and early this season is belied by incredible and unsustainable luck on balls in play.  Delgado is not the hitter he once was, and is showing signs again early of hitting for less power.  Beltran has been excellent in the five hole, as expected.  Passed that point, Ryan Church is only okay, and Castillo and Castro are pretty weak hitters.  Castillo seemingly has become healthy this year, and thus improved on his awful 2008, but he's still a powerless hitter.


1) SS Jose Reyes (S): .257/.342/.343

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar,  babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

2) LF Daniel Murphy (L): .313/.379/.470

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average.  last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise.  does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l:  some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .299/.389/.454

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well.  expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well.  just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .250/.346/.471

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) CF Carlos Beltran (S): .404/.504/.606


proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

6) RF Ryan Church (L): .272/.355/.383

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

7) 2B Luis Castillo (S): .328/.403/.391

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none


8) C Ramon Castro (R): .286/.348/.476

proj: .250/.315/.450
bb: 8.5%
k: 25%
gb: 35%
iff: 16%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he pops up a lot, doesn't beat out infield hits, and is a very strong pull hitter
s/c/z: good eye but below average contact
r/l: .710 vs .765 ops; 2.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .759; a lot more doubles on road
p/o: very disticnt pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers, specifically a babip issue-- probably hits fewer popups against them




BENCH


The  Mets bench is not particularly good, especially from the left side where they only have Cora and Reed.  Tatis was bound to regress this year after a revival in 2008, but he has hit the ball well so far.  Sheffield seems to be just barely holding on.

IF Alex Cora (L): .321/.412/.464

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .313/.378/.531

proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .273/.333/.455


proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Gary Sheffield (R): .167/.324/.367


proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

C Omir Santos (R): .276/.290/.517


proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: C Brian Schneider (L): .143/.250/.190


proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none



ROTATION

The Mets have what may be the best pitcher in baseball in Johan Santana.  He has been even better than his normal self this year with an ERA barely over 1.  The rest of the Mets rotation has been terrible. Unlike this past weekend, the Phillies will not miss Santana.  Instead, they will have to take him on with Park behind them tonight.  The Phillies managed 2 wins in 5 games in which they played Santana in 2008.  Ironically they were 0-2 when Hamels pitched, and 2-1 when other pitchers pitched.  They won games that Happ and Blanton pitched, and lost one that Kendrick pitched.  The Mets throw Pelfrey out there on Thursday night against the Phils.  He has struggled mightily this year, and precisely because he has been unable to strike guys out while no longer maintaining the low walk rate that sustained him last year.  Sounds Kendrickesque to me.

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 1.10 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 12.1 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.10 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies

Ibanez: 12/34, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 3/19, 0 BB, 6 K
Rollins: 1/17, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/18, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Werth: 5/16, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Howard: 6/14, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Cairo: 3/12, 2 2B, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Victorino: 1/12, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K

 


THURSDAY OPPONENT: Mike Pelfrey (R): 6.00 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 2.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 6.47 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 3/11, 4 BB, 2 K, 0 XBH
Utley: 3/12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/12, 0 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 5/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K,
Rollins: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/8, 1 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/4, 1 BB

Ruiz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

Ibanez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K


NOT FACING US: John Maine (R): 5.20 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.59 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


NOT FACING US: Livan Hernandez (R): 5.53 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.39 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Cairo: 2/19, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K


NOT FACING US: Ken Takahashi (L): 0.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.56 FIP, 42 GB%

Takahashi has --yet to pitch-- barely pitched in the majors and only has thrown to 48 hitters in the minors this year.  So there is not much MLB or MiLB information on him.  In Japan, he seemed to be an aging mediocre pitcher, but I imagine he's there to --retire the lefties when the Mets are hoarding Pedro Feliciano-- punish Oliver Perez.



BULLPEN

The revitalized Mets bullpen has been less than shut down thus far.  K-Rod has been pretty decent so far, although it is early, and he almost blew a save yesterday.  Putz has been wild and failed to strike many people out early on.  Certainly, this does not mean that the moves failed, but that won't stop Mets fans from overreacting.  Other than those two, the Mets bullpen is pretty average.  Feliciano is a very good LOOGY who gives Ryan Howard fits, and has struck Utley out plenty as well.  The Mets add a new lefty to their pen in the form of Oliver Perez this week.  Well played, New York.


CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 1.54 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 12.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.10 ERA, 19% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:


Ibanez: 7/22, 1 BB, 9 K, 0 XBH
Stairs: 0/6, 3 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1 IBB

Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 1 BB

Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K



J.J. Putz (R): 3.38 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.12 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Cairo: 1/2 0 BB, 0 K, 1 sac
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Coste: 0/1

Victorino: 0/1

Feliz: 0/1

Ibanez: 0/1

Werth: 0/1, 1 K

Howard: 0/1, 1 K

Ruiz: 0/1


Pedro Feliciano (L): 4.50 ERA, 21.8 BB/9, 11.7 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 3.78 FIP, 64% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb!  .787 vs .569 ops!  major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/24, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/23, 1 HR, 0 BB, 8 K
Rollins: 5/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 1/16, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ibanez: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K


Sean Green (R): 8.76 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.69 FIP, 61% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Cairo: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Coste: 0/1, K

Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Bobby Parnell (R): 1.38 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies

Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 6.18 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Feliz: 1/17, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K

Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 2/6, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K



Brian Stokes (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.64 FIP, 60% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 69% fb, 21% cb, 10% ch
r/l: .763 vs .921 ops; 2.3 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .850 vs .825 ops; 1.6 vs 2.2 k/bb

Stokes vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 1 BB
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

 

 


PHILLIES



LINE UP

The heart of the Phillies lineup leans further to the left than Ralph Nader.  The rest of the lineup is pretty well balanced, but with Utley hitting 3rd, Howard hitting 4th, and Ibanez hitting 6th, managers have an advantage to use lefties against the Phillies in key situations.  Both of the switch hitters atop the lineup hit lefties a little better than righties, and the bottom of the lineup has two righties.  The Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz is back in the lineup, but struggling again.  Utley and Ibanez have both been on fire and have carried the team, though Utley has been battling a sore foot after being hit by a pitch last weekend.  Overall, the offense has been spectacular thus far, mostly because of those two, and as Howard continues to hit the ball hard, the team is probably going to see a breakout from him soon too.  I think Howard is swinging well, and he's come close to a lot of homeruns already this year despite hitting five anyway.  He could easily be ready for a hot streak.

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .210/.252/.290

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb.  otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .308/.353/.529


proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .346/.485/.667

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .295/.385/.526

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep.  also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though.  probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes.  however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him.  he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!"  in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably.  his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp.  he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip.  i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road.  very similar hr numbers.  2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .264/.375/.506

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .351/.417/.702

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .325/.383/.458

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes.  swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home.  likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .238/.333/.286

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey.  his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

 




BENCH

Like their lineup, the Phillies' bench is much better from the left side.  Dobbs and Stairs are two solid lefthanded pinch hitters with power.  Stairs is by far more patient and is much more successful against lefties than Dobbs.  From the right side, the Phillies have superutility man Eric Bruntlett.  Bruntlett struggles mightily against RHP, but actually has very solid numbers against LHP.  Bruntlett can be used as a counterswitch when managers bring in lefties to face Dobbs or Stairs.  The Phillies other RHB on the bench is Miguel Cairo.  He is not a very good hitter, but is flexible and can play many positions.  Cairo has only managed a single hit thus far in twelve chances, and his time is bound to be limited.  The backup catching duties fall to Chris Coste who has also struggled.



IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .150/.240/.300

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually  average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb.  he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .143/.217/.143

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters.  given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp.  in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp.  he should never see them.  absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.412/.714

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R): .083/.083/.083

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Chris Coste (R): .182/.280/.273

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat









ROTATION

The Phillies rotation has struggled a lot early, though they seem to be mostly struggling with bad luck rather than bad performances.  Their walk and strikeout rates across the board are indicative that we should expect similar performances to last season, and their groundball rates haven't been out of the norm either.  However, all of them seem to struggling on homeruns per flyball.  This is known to be a luck based statistic, with little variance in skill level, so it is somewhat hard to believe that they would necessarily continue to perform this badly.  However, it does seem coincidental that all of them would struggle with it at once.  The Phillies go with Chan Ho Park Wednesday, in what is a very important fifth start for him.  He has been poor in two starts and mediocre in the other two, and the Phillies do have J.A. Happ ready to replace him if they want.  His strong Spring Training performance was so good that it shattered any argument of "small sample size" and instead calls into question a biased sample, where he may have faced some weaker hitters.  I was an advocate of putting him in the rotation in case he could maintain his torrid performance.  It was statistically significant and given the Phillies 3-1 record in his four starts, it was certainly worth checking.  But now, it seems pretty clear that the Phillies should replace him with Happ, and this might be what does it.  On Thursday, the Phillies will turn to Jamie Moyer.  Moyer certaily is going to show his age at some point, and he really can't be expected to pitch until he's 50, but his poor performance this year also seems luck driven as his core statistics of strikeouts, walks, and groundballs seem in line with recent tendencies. 


WEDNESDAY STARTER: Chan Ho Park (R): 8.57 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 7.87 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/15, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/15, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 3/12, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 7/12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 2/8, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Delgado: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (2 IBB), 1 K
Reyes: 0/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K

Santos: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP

Murphy: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K


THURSDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.65 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 6.43 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Delgado: 31/81, 7 2B, 8 HR, 8 BB (2 IBB), 9 K, 3 HBP
Beltran: 12/57, 3 2B, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Reyes: 11/41, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 14/36, 4 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Sheffield: 14/29, 2 2B, 4 HR, 8 BB, 2 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 4/14, 2 2B, 3 BB,0 K
Castro: 2/13, 1 HR, 1 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Cora: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP

Tatis: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K

Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF




NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R):6.84 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.65 FIP, 36% GB


proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Castro: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K


NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 7.27 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 5.89 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant.  ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar.  most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/20, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 5/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Delgado: 7/15, 1 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K



NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Brett Myers (R): 5.35 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.61 FIP, 45% GB


proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does.  My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments.  If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up.  However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take.  For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming.  A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs. Mets:


Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Castillo: 6/37, 4 BB, 11 K
Beltran: 10/32, 4 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Wright: 5/27, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 5 K, 2 HBP
Church: 3/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 10 K, 1 Sac
Cora: 2/12, 4 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Sheffield: 5/9, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Castro: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 2/3, 2 2B, 1 K
Reed: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K


BULLPEN

Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but has gotten through a few tough saves anyway.  However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball if he is healthy.  His health itself has been in question as he has recently took a weak off to heal a sore knee.  In his stead, Ryan Madson was very good.  Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009.  He has had a few bad moments and a few moments of dominance thus far.  The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May.  Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen.  Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man.  Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB, especially Taschner who exemplified that inability well against the Nationals on Thursday.  Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while.  He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times.  Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible.  However, he has been extremely good this year and may deserve a little more exposure than I give him credit for.  The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far.  It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R): 6.75 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 3.4 HR/9, 7.87 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Delgado: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Castro: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Ryan Madson (R): 2.70 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.13 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Delgado: 3/17, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K, 2 HBP
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/8, 1 BB,0 K, 1 HBP
Castro: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Tatis; 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Cora: 1 Sac


Scott Eyre (L): 7.20 ERA, 7.2 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 3.6 HR/9, 8.78 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Delgado: 4/11, 1 2B, 4 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Jack Taschner (L): 4.76 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 7.09 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs. Mets:

Reyes: 2/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Beltran: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Cora: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Chad Durbin (R): 4.20 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 6.51 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Delgado: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Beltran: 3/12, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/10, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/7, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Church: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Castro: 0/5, 0 BB,1 K
Cora: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K


Clay Condrey (R): 1.80 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.45 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:


Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Delgado: 3/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Castillo: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Sheffield: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


J.A. Happ (L): 3.52 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.83 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/5, 1 Bb, 1 K
Beltran: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 1/4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Delgado: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Castro: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Church: 0/1

Murphy: 0/1


SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 4/25, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K