The Phillies (35-23) come back home to face the Boston Red Sox (36-24) for a three game weekend series. Both the 2007 and the 2008 World Series Champions play this exciting series after beating up on their rivals. The Phillies have just taken two of three from the Mets at CitiField, and the Red Sox have just swept the Yankees in Boston. The Red Sox now have a two game lead over the Yankees, and the Phillies now have a four game lead over the Mets. The Mets and Yankees will face off against each other this weekend as well.
On Friday night, the Red Sox send the unlucky Jon Lester to the mound, who has dominated this year, despite having an ERA over 5. The chief culprit in Lester's bad luck has been his .353 BABIP, but an oddly high 14.5% HR/Flyball rate isn't helping either. In reality, Lester's peripheral statistics look more like a sub-4 ERA pitcher's this year. The Phillies send fellow unlucky pitcher Joe Blanton to the mound. Blanton has finally found some luck in recent starts, but he still has a .331 BABIP and a 16.0% HR/FB, both well above average, leading to a 5.46 that would probably be in the low 4's without bad luck.
On Saturday night, the Red Sox will send another unlucky righty to the mound in the person of Daisuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka has only thrown 27 innings this year, and has been wild on them, but his .453 BABIP belies a pitcher who has shown a good bit of skill at striking guys out with 29 in those 27 innings. The Phillies send young lefty Antonio Bastardo on the mound Saturday night. He has put together two solid starts and earned a third one in Philadelphia, but with call-up Kyle Kendrick today to replace to newly injured Scott Eyre, Bastardo probably needs to continue pitching well to keep that spot.
On Sunday afternoon, the Red Sox send ace Josh Beckett to the mound who has put together a strong season thus far. Beckett also has been a little vulernable to walks, but has also struck out a batter per inning this year. The Phillies respond with J.A. Happ, who has generally been strong since joining the rotation, but struggled against the Mets at CitiField on Tuesday night. Happ will look to rebound against the Red Sox this weekend.
MATCHUPS:
Friday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Jon Lester (L)
Saturday, 7:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
Sunday, 1:35-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Josh Beckett (R)
After the jump, I preview the players, the splits, and batter/pitcher matchups of both rosters.
LINE UP
1) CF Jacoby Ellsbury (L): .302/.343/.370
projection average (proj): .290/.350/.415
projected BB/PA (bb): 7.5%
projected K/AB (k): 14%
career gb% (gb): 51%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 16%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .325; i projected him around .300. my system was conservative based on limited data available, since he's fast and has an ability to hit the ball hard.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): not a great eye but patient, very good contact skill, sees a lot of strikes
righty/lefty (r/l): .770 vs .689 ops; 1.8 vs 2.4 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .818 vs .684 ops; 1.3 vs 3.0 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): spreads ball around well
anything else (other): extremely fast; good against groundball pitchers
2) 2B Dustin Pedroia (R): .306/.401/.406
proj: .310/.370/.465
bb: 8%
k: 8%
gb: 43%
iff: 24%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .320; i have him around .310; he does pop out a lot
s/c/z: okay eye, okay patience, great contact
r/l: .829 vs .832 ops; 1.0 vs 0.6 k/bb
h/a: .899 vs .763 ops; 0.9 vs 0.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none
3) RF J.D. Drew (L): .267/.393/.500
proj: .270/.385/.470
bb: 15%
k: 21%
gb: 39%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: projected around .310 which is exactly where i have him.
s/c/z: very good eye and patient, average contact skill
r/l: .922 vs .798 ops; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .926 vs .860 ops; 1.1 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against SP as game goes on
4) 1B Kevin Youkilis (R): .350/.472/.631
proj: .285/.380/.475
bb: 12%
k: 20%
gb: 33%
iff: 5%
ifh: 9%
babip: i have him around .329 which is similar to where other systems have him. he hits the ball hard and oesn't pop up.
s/c/z: good eye and very patient, decent contact
r/l: .870 vs .884 ops; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .890 vs .858 ops; 1.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none
5) LF Jason Bay (R): .277/.399/.592
proj: .270/.360/.500
bb: 12%
k: 26%
gb: 38%
iff: 7%
ifh: 12%
babip: projected around .325
s/c/z: good eye and patient, below average contact
r/l: .888 vs .932 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .893 vs .905 ops; 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: very distinct pull hitter
other: none
6) DH David Ortiz (L): .203/.299/.338
proj: .270/.380/.500
bb: 15%
k: 19.5%
gb: 34%
iff: 8%
ifh: 3%
babip: i have him at .296 which is about where everyone else does
s/c/z: great eye, somewhat patient, slightly below average contact, sees few strikes
r/l: .965 vs .823 ops; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .945 vs .902 ops; 1.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers moreso than others, better against groundball pitchers
7) 3B Mike Lowell (R): .292/.325/.502
proj: .275/.340/.450
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: i projected him at .300 but other systems have him slightly below.
s/c/z: good eye, patient, above average contact
r/l: .800 vs .851 ops; 1.7 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .845 vs .780 ops; 1.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none
8) C Jason Varitek (S): .236/.328/.497
proj: .235/.330/.385
bb: 11.5%
k: 27%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290 but i had him around .280
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, somewhat bad contact
r/l: .767 vs .839 ops; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .815 vs .761 ops; 1.9 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter both ways but not extreme
other: none
(9) SS Julio Lugo (R): .256/.330/.341
proj: .260/.330/.370
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: i projected him around .308 which other systems were similar to.
s/c/z: patient with good eye, decent contact
r/l: .832 vs .628 ops; 2.5 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .805 vs .747 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none
BENCH
C George Kottaras (L): .212/.271/.346
proj: .235/.330/.405
bb: 10%
k: 25%
gb: 34%
iff: 6%
ifh: 0%
babip: projected all over the place but averages about average
s/c/z: good eye, poor contact
r/l: .660 vs .419 ops thus far
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none
SS Nick Green (R): .279/.336/.419
proj: .240/.290/.390
bb: 7%
k: 26%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around average
s/c/z: okay eye but not patient, below average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .642 vs .732 ops; 4.0 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .674 vs .66 ops; 3.3 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none
1B/OF Mark Kotsay (L): .286/.333/.500
proj: .270/.330/.385
bb: 8%
k: 12%
gb: 42%
iff: 6%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: good eye, pretty good patience, good contact skill, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .758 vs .731 ops; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .761 vs .742 ops; 1.2 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none
OF Rocco Baldelli (R): .259/.306/.414
proj: .280/.330/.470
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 50%
iff: 15%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .320 whcih might be a bit high
s/c/z: somewhat poor eye and a little impatient; not good contact skill
r/l: .739 vs .836 ops; 4.8 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .771 vs .761 ops; 2.8 vs 5.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none
ROTATION
FRIDAY OPPONENT: Jon Lester (L): 5.09 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.85 FIP, 44% GB
proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 57% fb, 22% ct, 17% cb, 4% ch, 0.2% sl
r/l: .756 vs .734 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .727 vs .774 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
Lester vs Phillies:
Ibanez: 3/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
SATURDAY OPPONENT: Daisuke Matsuzaka (R): 7.33 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 36% GB
proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 52% fb, 23% sl, 15% ct, 4% cb, 4% ch, 2% sf
r/l: .684 vs .744 ops; 2.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .755 vs .673 ops; 1.9 vs 2.1 k/bb
Matsuzaka vs Phillies:
Ibanez: 2/11, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 4/7, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
SUNDAY OPPONENT: Josh Beckett (R): 3.77 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 3.45 FIP, 46% GB
proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% cb, 7% ch, 2% ct
r/l: .668 vs .724 ops; 3.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .688 vs .705 ops; 2.9 vs 3.2 k/bb
Beckett vs Phillies:
Rollins: 11/43, 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 4 K
Utley: 6/22, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
Stairs: 2/14, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ibanez: 3/11, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 4/9, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
NOT FACING US: Tim Wakefield (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.68 FIP, 36% GB
proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 81% kn, 13% fb, 6% cb
r/l: .761 vs .717 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .737 vs .744 ops; 1.9 vs 1.6 k/bb
Wakefield vs Phillies:
Stairs: 14/52, 5 2B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 7 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 8/28, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 4/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
NOT FACING US: Brad Penny (R): 5.32 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.37 ERA, 40% GB
proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 16% cb, 10% sf, 4% ch
r/l: .751 vs .728 ops; 2.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .710 vs .770 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
Penny vs Phillies:
Rollins: 9/47, 2 2B, 1 3B, 4 BB, 9 K
Feliz: 5/36, 2 2B, 2 BB, 9 K
Utley: 4/16, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HBP
Stairs: 3/13, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 3/12, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Victorino: 1/7, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
BULLPEN
CL Jonathan Papelbon (R): 2.00 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.05 FIP, 32% GB
proj avg: 2.50 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 81% fb, 13% sf, 6% sl
r/l: .563 vs .550 ops; 6.4 vs 3.8 k/bb
h/a: .571 vs .541 ops; 4.5 vs 4.8 k/bb
Papelbon vs Phillies:
Stairs: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Hideki Okajima (L): 2.42 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.62 FIP, 26% GB
proj avg: 3.40 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 54% fb, 25% cb, 21% ch, 0.1% sf in 2008; 62% fb, 21% sf, 17% cb in 2009
r/l: .586 vs .583 ops; 2.5 vs 4.0 k/bb
h/a: .677 vs .498 ops; 3.1 vs 2.9 k/bb
Okajima vs Phillies:
Ibanez: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorion: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramon Ramirez (R): 1.86 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.36 FIP, 36% GB
proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 48% fb, 19% sl, 33% ch, 0.4% sf
r/l: .565 vs .716 ops; 2.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .677 vs .577 ops; 2.3 vs 2.3 k/bb
Ramirez vs Phillies:
Feliz: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Manny Delcarmen (R): 2.08 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.35 FIP, 44% GB
proj avg: 3.40 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 67% fb, 18% cb, 15% ch
r/l: .660 vs .652 ops; 3.6 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .619 vs .693 ops; 1.9 vs 3.0 k/bb
Delcarmen vs Phillies:
Ibanez: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Takashi Saito (R): 2.53 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.60 FIP, 22% GB
proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 65% fb, 26% sl, 9% cb, 0.1% ch
r/l: .486 vs .578 ops; 5.0 vs 4.2 k/bb
h/a: .517 vs .548 ops; 4.4 vs 5.1 k/bb
Saito vs Phillies:
Feliz: 1/8, 1 BB, 4 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Daniel Bard (R): 0.82 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.08 FIP, 29% GB
proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 51% in minors
pitches: 77% fb, 20% sl, 3% ch early in 2009
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
Bard: has not played any Phillies
Justin Masterson (R): 4.14 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.80 FIP, 53% GB
proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 69% fb, 28% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .619 vs .783 ops; 2.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
Masterson vs Phillies:
Ibanez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
LINEUP
1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .226/.262/.333
projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.
2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .288/.336/.450
proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year
3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .302/.438/.588
proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters
4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .253/.331/.567
proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position
5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .255/.351/.425
proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year
6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .322/.377/.674
proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none
7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .312/.362/.427
proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related
8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .287/.410/.475
proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought
BENCH:
C Chris Coste (R): .253/.356/.440
proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat
IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .152/.226/.239
proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none
IF Greg Dobbs (L): .196/.276/.353
proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers
OF Matt Stairs (L): .306/.479/.583
proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency
IF Paul Bako (L): .000/.000/.000
proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none
ROTATION
FRIDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.46 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.78 FIP, 40% GB
proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games
Blanton vs Red Sox:
Lugo: 7/26, 2 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Ortiz: 6/20, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Varitek: 5/22, 2 2B, 1 BB, 6 K
Youkilis: 6/18, 1 3B, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Lowell: 4/20, 1 BB, 4 K
Pedroia: 3/12, 2 2B, 3 BB, 0 K
Drew: 4/12, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Ellsbury: 2/11, 0 BB, 2 K
Baldelli: 0/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Green: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Kotsay: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
SATURDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 2.45 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.45 FIP, 32% GB
proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control
Bastardo: has not faced any Red Sox
SUNDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.98 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.41 FIP, 35% GB
proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info
Happ: has not played any Red Sox
NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.62 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.00 FIP, 41% GB
proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.
Hamels vs Red Sox:
Lugo: 3/5, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Drew: 1/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ellsbury: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Pedroia: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bay: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Kotsay: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Baldelli: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.11 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.74 FIP, 40% GB
proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets
Moyer vs Red Sox:
Ortiz: 13/36, 6 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 4 HBP
Varitek: 8/34, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 9 K
Moyer: 19/33, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Lugo: 7/15, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Baldelli: 1/10, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Youkilis: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Bay: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Lowell: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Pedroia: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
BULLPEN
Ryan Madson (R): 2.08 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.87 FIP, 44% GB
proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all
Madson vs Red Sox:
Lowell: 0/7, 1 BB, 2 K
Drew: 2/6, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
Green: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Lugo: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Bay: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Youkilis: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotsay: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Pedroia: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Jack Taschner (L): 3.74 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.62 FIP, 35% GB
proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb
Taschner vs Red Sox:
Kotsay: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bay: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 1 BB
Pedroia: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Youkilis: 1 BB
Chad Durbin (R): 4.22 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.52 FIP, 36% GB
proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise
Durbin vs Red Sox:
Varitek: 2/8, 1 BB, 3 K
Lowell: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ortiz; 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Drew: 3/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Pedroia: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Youkilis: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotsay: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Bailey: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bay: 1 BB
Clay Condrey (R): 2.27 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 50% GB
proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb
Condrey vs Red Sox:
Drew: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ellsbury: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bay: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Pedroia: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Condrey: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Youkilis: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Chan Ho Park (R): 6.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.87 FIP, 43% GB
proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops
Park vs Red Sox:
Kotsay: 10/32, 2 2B, 1 3b, 1 HR, 4 BB, 3 K
Drew: 6/20, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
Ortiz: 1/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Lugo: 1/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Lowell: 0/8, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Varitek: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Bay: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Baldelli: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.28 FIP, 39% GB
proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops
Romero vs Red Sox:
Kotsay: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/6, 2 BB, 3 K
Ortiz: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Baldelli: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Lugo: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ellsbury: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Green: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 1 BB
Pedroia: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kyle Kendrick (R): AAA STATS: 4.03 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 53% GB
proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45.5%
pitches: 72% fb, 21% sl, 6% ch, 0.5% cb for 2007-08 (allegedly has been working on changeup in AAA this year)
r/l: .704 vs .937 ops; 3.0 vs 0.7 k/bb
h/a: .791 vs .852 ops; 1.6 vs 1.25 k/bb
Kendrick vs. Red Sox:
Kotsay: 1/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Bay: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Drew: 2/2, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ellsbury: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Lowell: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Lugo: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Pedroia: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Varitek: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
DISABLED LIST: Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.20 FIP, 38% GB
proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007
Lidge vs Red Sox:
Bay: 6/15, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Drew: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Lowell: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Varitek: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Baldelli: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Lugo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 1 BB
DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.97 FIP, 32% GB
proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split
Eyre vs Red Sox:
Varitek: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 4 K
Kotsay: 2/8, 5 BB, 0 K
Ortiz: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Drew: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Lowell: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Lugo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K