clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Phillies at Rays: June 23-25

New, 4 comments

The Philadelphia Phillies (36-31) and the Tampa Bay Rays (37-34) face off this week in a rematch of the 2008 World Series.  Both teams return 18 of their 25-man playoff rosters, though the Rays return one of the Champions in the person of Pat Burrell.  Since we last saw Pat the Bat, he has not exactly lit the American League on fire.  He has struggled through injuries and a major power outage which has left him with an anemic .296 SLG and only a single homerun.  Burrell was supposed to be the right-handed power threat that was going to fill in the Rays' weakness that may have cost them the title.  The lack of major right-handed power left the Rays somewhat vulnerable to Phillies lefties, Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, who helped the Phillies win three of their four World Series victories.

The Phillies enter Tuesday's action just barely holding on to a 1.5 game lead in the NL East, after dropping six in a row and eight of nine games on an ugly homestand.  The Phillies are without Raul Ibanez, Brett Myers, Scott  Eyre, Clay Condrey, Brad Lidge for at least some of the some the series, and possibly Ryan Howard who is overcoming acute sinusitis.  The Rays enter the series barely over .500 and six full games behind the Red Sox and in fourth place in the AL East.

Neither team enters into the series in great shape.  When Jimmy Rollins stepped into the batters box last October against Scott Kazmir to ignite last year's World Series, both men were on top of the world.  Kazmir had overcome arm troubles by focusing on his changeup and Rollins was coming off a strong season and a leadoff homerun in each of the clinching games in the Phillies' earlier playoff series.  Now, Kazmir has been on the disabled list for over a month with a strained oblique and Rollins is hitting just .217.

The Phillies will send Jamie Moyer to the mound against the Rays on Tuesday night.  Moyer has struggled this season, but has managed to recover a bit in a recent starts.  The Rays counter with David Price, who the Phillies last saw in the bullpen last fall.  Price has gotten off to a pretty good start this year in 26 innings though he has been very wild.  The lefty will be tough on the Phillies, and they'll need to be patient and draw walks to succeed.

On Wednesday, Joe Blanton will take another shot at the Rays, though in an AL park, he will not have the opportunity to do so using his mighty bat.  The Rays counter with Matt Garza who has been effective this season.

Thursday night, the Phillies send rookie lefty Antonio Bastardo to the mound.  He has been up and down in a few starts this year.  The Rays counter with Andy Sonnanstine.  Sonnanstine has been pretty hittable this year, though has suffered some bad luck as well, putting up a very high 6.60 ERA thanks to a high BABIP and HR/FB rate.  Still, the right-hander should be very hittable.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday, 7:08--
Jamie Moyer (L) vs. David Price (L)
Wednesday, 7:08-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Matt Garza (R)
Thursday, 7:08-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (R)



After the jump, I preview the players, the splits, and the matchups.

RAYS


LINE UP

1) CF B.J. Upton (R): .240/.322/.359

projection average (proj): .275/.380/.430
projected BB/PA (bb): 13%
projected K/AB (k): 26%
career gb% (gb): 49%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 6%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 9%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .350; i have him at .319
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, patient, slightly below average contact
righty/lefty (r/l):  .748 vs .816 ops; 2.3 vs 1.5 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .761 vs .774 ops; 2.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around very well
anything else (other): gets much better against a starter as game goeson


2) LF Carl Crawford (L): .307/.367/.435

proj: .290/.330/.400
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 8%
ifh: 10%
babip: i have him at .327 which is similar to what other systems say
s/c/z: impatient, okay eye, slightly above average contact
r/l:  .796 vs .701 ops; 2.5 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .794 vs .745 ops; 2.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: none


3) 3B Evan Longoria (R): .309/.392/.594

proj: .275/.345/.490
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 38%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .310.  i have him at .302.
s/c/z: not a great eye, not impatient, slightly below average contact
r/l: .908 vs .905 ops; 2.6 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .862 vs .952 ops; 2.5 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitching


4) 1B Carlos Pena (L): .235/.371/.567

proj: .255/.370/.500
bb: 15%
k: 30%
gb: 36%
iff: 9%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .300; i have him at .283
s/c/z: very good eye and pretty patient, pretty poor contact
r/l: .903 vs .751 ops; 1.6 vs 3.3 k/bb
h/a: .882 vs .831 ops; 2.0 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: significant pull hitter
other: none


5) 2B Ben Zobrist (S): .293/.400/.644

proj: .250/.335/.410
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7.5%
babip: projected around .285
s/c/z: good eye, very patient, above average contact
r/l: .755 vs .786 ops; 1.7 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .739 vs .786 ops; 1.5 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter from both sides
other: none


6) DH Pat Burrell (R): .240/.351/.296

proj: .245/.370/.465
bb: 17%
k: 26%
gb: 33%
iff: 12%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .285; i have him at .275
s/c/z: good eye (but less than before), very patient, average contact skill for last few years
r/l: .815 vs .942 ops; 1.9 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .847 vs .847 ops; 1.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


7) SS Jason Bartlett (R): .373/.414/.589

proj: .275/.335/.370
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 9%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .320, but i have him at .302
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, pretty good contact
r/l: .679 vs .860 ops; 2.1 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .713 vs .747 ops; 1.9 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none


8) RF Gabe Gross (L): .266/.372/.419

proj: .255/.345/.425
bb: 12%
k: 23%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: i have him at .304 which is where most systems have him
s/c/z: good eye, patient, average contact
r/l: .779 vs .587 ops; 1.5 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .831 vs .685 ops; 1.4 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: better against starter as game goes on


9) C Dioner Navarro (S): .218/.242/.322

proj: .263/.335/.380
bb: 9%
k: 15%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .300; i have him at .278
s/c/z: average patience, good eye, average contact
r/l: .658 vs .766 ops; 2.0 vs 1.25 k/bb
h/a: .695 vs .674 ops; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


BENCH

C Michel Hernandez (R): .270/.292/.349

proj: .250/.305/.335
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 53% in minors
iff: 14% in mionrs
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .280
s/c/z: poor eye, impatient, okay contact
r/l: .857/.643 ops split in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none


IF Willy Aybar (S): .273/.379/.445

proj: .265/.340/.405
bb: 9.5%
k: 14%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .290; i have him at .285
s/c/z: good eye, good patience, good contact
r/l: .764 vs .792 ops; 1.1 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .798 vs .760 ops; 1.0 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter as righty, pull hitter as lefty too but not as much
other: none


IF Joe Dillon (R): .348/.444/.478

proj: .250/.330/.400
bb: 10%
k: 19%
gb: 41%
iff: 15%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: patient without a good eye, pretty good contact
r/l: in mionrs, better eye vs lefties, but hits better vs righties
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


OF Gabe Kapler (R): .237/.318/.484

proj: .275/.325/.420
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: good eye, good patience, pretty good contact
r/l: .717 vs .827 ops; 1.8 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .806 vs .695 ops; 1.6 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none


ROTATION

TUESDAY OPPONENT: David Price (L): 3.46 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.75 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 72% fb, 26% sl, 1% ch, 1% cb
r/l: little better against lefties in minors
h/a: not enough info

Price vs Phillies:

Utley: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K


WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Matt Garza (R): 3.83 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.48 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 69% fb, 15% sl, 10% cb, 7% ch
r/l: .711 vs .725 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .693 vs .745 ops; 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb

Garza vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/10, 2 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 4/9, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Rollins: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K


THURSDAY OPPONENT: Andy Sonnanstine (R): 6.60 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.35 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 37% fb, 25% ct, 21% sl, 11% cb, 6% ch
r/l: .840 vs .767 ops; 3.7 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .795 vs .809 ops; 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb

Sonnanstine vs Phillies:

Stairs: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K


NOT FACING US: Jeff Niemann (R): 4.23 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 71% fb, 14% sl, 10% cb, 3% ch, 2% sf
r/l: .817 vs .767 ops; 2.4 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .788 vs .797 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Niemann: has not played any Phillies


NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: James Shields (R): 3.36 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.59 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 42% fb, 24% ch, 17% cb, 16% ct, 1% sl
r/l: .737 vs .726 ops; 4.3 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .682 vs .788 ops; 4.1 vs 3.4 k/bb

Shields vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/20, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 0/11, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K


BULLPEN

CL: Dan Wheeler (R): 4.24 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.43 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 59% fb, 23% sl, 9% ch, 6% cb, 3% sf
r/l: .645 vs .839 ops; 3.8 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .744 vs .714 ops; 3.0 vs 2.5 k/bb

Wheeler vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 3/9, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/3, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K


Grant Balfour (R): 5.01 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.74 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 3.00 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 83% fb, 11% sl, 5% cb, 1% ch, 0.2% ct
r/l: .677 vs .677 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .636 vs .716 ops; 2.6 vs 1.8 k/bb

Balfour vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sf
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Werth: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB (IBB)
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB (IBB)


J.P. Howell (L): 1.82 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 10.9 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.31 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 48% fb, 36% cb, 16% ch, 0.2% sl
r/l: .736 vs .698 ops; 2.2 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .709 vs .739 ops; 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb

Howell vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 2/6, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


Joe Nelson (R): 4.70 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 69% fb, 29% ch, 2% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .774 vs .686 ops; 1.9 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .752 vs .710 ops; 1.9 vs 2.1 k/bb

Nelson vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cotse: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Randy Choate (L): 1.93 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 10.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.06 FIP, 79% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 84% fb, 16% sl
r/l: .734 vs .665 ops; 0.8 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .672 vs .735 ops; 1.8 vs 1.3 k/bb

Choate vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Lance Cormier (R): 2.57 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 3.23 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 47% ct, 30% cb, 18% fb, 4% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .858 vs .818 ops; 1.4 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .904 vs .787 ops; 1.3 vs 1.2 k/bb

Cormier vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Utley: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 0/10, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 2 BB (2 IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K


Winston Abreu (R): 9.00 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 0.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 6.0 FIP, 0% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 41% in minor leagues, 30% in brief major league experience
pitches: 50% fb, 45% sl, 5% ch
r/l: much better vs rhb in minors; wild against lefties
h/a: not enough info

Abreu vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K


DISABLED LIST: Jason Isringhausen (R): 2.25 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.19 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% ct, 11% cb, 3% sl
r/l: .649 vs .693 ops; 2.1 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .644 vs .701 ops; 2.1 vs 1.8 k/bb

Isringhausen vs Phillies:

Bako: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Utley: 3/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

 

 

PHILLIES




LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .217/.261/.338

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb.  otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.


2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .304/.365/.465

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year


3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .297/.428/.547

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters


4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.332/.558

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep.  also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though.  probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes.  however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him.  he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!"  in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably.  his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp.  he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip.  i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road.  very similar hr numbers.  2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position


5) LF Jayson Werth (R): .256/.343/.456

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year


6) RF Greg Dobbs (L): .215/.278/.431

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters.  given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp.  in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp.  he should never see them.  absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers


7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .294/.339/.409

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes.  swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home.  likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related


8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .260/.377/.415

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey.  his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought


BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .244/.343/.407

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat


IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .157/.250/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually  average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb.  he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none


OF Matt Stairs (L): .277/.424/.489

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .333/.333/.333

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none


OF John Mayberry (R): .300/.300/.700

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none


ROTATION

TUESDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.35 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.77 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Rays:

Kapler: 6/26, 2 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
Pena: 10/22, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
Crawford: 10/21, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Upton: 4/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Aybar: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Longoria: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF


WEDNESDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.28 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.04 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Rays:

Crawford: 9/25, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Upton: 3/14, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Pena: 4/9, 1 2B, 3 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Burrell: 1/6, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Navarro: 3/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Aybar: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Longoria: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Zobrist: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


THURSDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 5.21 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.96 FIP, 27% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Rays


NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 3.47 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Rays


NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.24 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant.  ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar.  most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Rays:

Kapler: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Aybar: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Crawford: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dillon: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Shields: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gross: 1 BB
Upton: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Pena: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Longoria: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Navarro: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Zobrist: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K



BULLPEN

Ryan Madson (R): 3.06 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.12 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Rays:

Aybar: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Crawford: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Isringhausen: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Upton: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Pena: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Longoria: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K


Jack Taschner (L): 5.26 ERA, 6.3 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Rays:

Aybar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dillon: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kapler: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K


Chad Durbin (R): 3.47 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.35 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise


Durbin vs Rays:

Pena: 1/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Crawford: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Upton: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Gross: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Aybar: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K


Chan Ho Park (R): 5.90 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Rays:

Burrell: 2/13, 1 2B, 3 BB, 8 K
Crawford: 3/11, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Aybar: 2/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), o K
Pena: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Gross: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K


J.C. Romero (L): 1.00 ERA, 10.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 6.28 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Rays:

Pena: 2/11, 1 3B, 1 BB, 5 K
Crawford: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Aybar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Navarro: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Longoria: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Upton: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 43%

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Rays:

Burrell: 1/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Crawford: 1 BB
Dillon: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Sergio Escalona (L): 4.15 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.75 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not played any Rays


DISABLED LIST (COULD RETURN WED OR THU): Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.15 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007


Lidge vs Rays:

Burrell: 1/3, 2 BB, 2 K
Gross: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Aybar: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dillon: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Pena: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Longoria: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Crawford: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zobrist: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Rays:

Gross: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Crawford: 1/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 3/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Navarro: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Longoria: 1 SF
Upton: 1/1, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K


DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Rays:

Aybar: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Burrell: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Cormier: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Gross: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kapler: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K