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Phillies at Dodgers: June 4-7

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The Phillies (31-20) head to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers (37-18), on the heels of two sweeps.  The Dodgers continue to surge as well, having taken two of three from the Diamondbacks and winning eight of the their last ten games.  The Phillies now have the second best record in the majors, but the Dodgers have the best record.  Both teams send three lefties to the mound in four games. 

 

MATCHUPS:

Thursday, 10:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Clayton Kershaw (L)

Friday, 10:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Eric Milton (L)

Saturday, 4:10-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Hiroki Kuroda (R)

Sunday, 8:00-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs Randy Wolf (L)

 

Below the jump, I preview all the players, splits, and matchups.

DODGERS


LINE UP

1) OF Juan Pierre (L): .371/.434/.483

proj: .285/.325/.360
bb: 5.5%
k: 7%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: he's projected around average (.300) but my research puts him closer to .310  he's very fast though not powerful and does popout a little.  however, he spreads the ball around pretty well.
s/c/z: quite bad eye the past few years despite having a good eye early in career, somewhat impatient, great contact skill
r/l: .726 vs .694 ops; 0.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .735 vs .700 ops; 0.9 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: slight opposite field hitter
other: none


2) SS Rafael Furcal (S): .244/.308/.301

projection average (proj): .285/.355/.410
projected BB/PA (bb): 10%
projected K/AB (k): 13.5%
career gb% (gb): 50%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 7%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected slightly above average due to speed; he spreads the ball around well and gets a decent number of infield hits so the .315-ish BABIP projection makes sense
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye and patient, good contact
righty/lefty (r/l):  .749 vs .801 ops; 1.4 k/bb both ways; more power as RHB
home/away (h/a): .821 vs .705 ops; 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; much more power at home
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other):


3) 2B Orlando Hudson (S): .329/.410/.468

proj: .280/.355/.415
bb: 16%
k: 15%
gb: 49%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected above average (.315-ish)-- pretty good at avoiding infield flies and has done very well on line drives historically despite unamazing power; my research indicates he should be around .323
s/c/z: very good eye and pretty patient; pretty good contact skill too
r/l:  .808 vs .709 ops; 1.6 k/bb both ways
h/a: .824 vs .745 ops; 1.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter as RHB but opposite field hitter as LHB
other: better against groundball pitchers (.835 vs .703 ops)


4) RF Andre Ethier (L): .262/.363/.435

proj: .295/.365/.470
bb: 9.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected high (.330-ish) which makes sense given that he rarely pops out, and hits his flyballs far; my research suggests he should be around .335
s/c/z: pretty good eye and good contact skill (especially high given high strikeout rate)
r/l: .882 vs .758 ops; 1.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .889 vs .822 ops; 1.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


5) C Russell Martin (R): .267/.377/.318

proj: .285/.380/.430
bb: 12.5%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .315, but my research sees him around average (.301) since he pops out a lot and isn't especially fast
s/c/z: very patient, pretty good eye, average contact
r/l: .762 vs .900 ops; 1.3 vs 0.8 k/bb
h/a: .803 vs .786 ops; 1.1 vs 1.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


6) 1B James Loney (L): ..284/.350/.379

proj: .295/.350/.455
bb: 8%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .320, probably because he hits a lot of balls hard.  my research suggest around .309.
s/c/z: not so great eye but close to to average, good contact skill, thrown a lot of pitches out of the strike zone
r/l: .865 vs .731 ops; 1.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .729 vs .925 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers


7) CF Matt Kemp (R): .310/.376/483

proj: .300/.350/475
bb: 7%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 3%
ifh: 10%
babip: extremely high BABIP on groundballs which makes sense somewhat given infield hit rate, but .354 career seems high.  however, my research sees him coming in around .352.  Avoiding popouts explains why his BABIP is high on flyballs and he hits balls hard, so he should be good on flyballs.  projected .360 BABIP isn't all that ridiculous, but probably should be lower.
s/c/z: good eye, poor contact
r/l: .782 vs .930 ops; 4.1 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .865 vs .787 ops; 3.7 vs 3.4 k/bb; much power at home
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers (do the dodgers play the same terrible groundball pitcher or something?)


8) 3B Casey Blake (R): .295/.368/.542

proj: .265/.335/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 22%
gb: 40%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .310.  my research puts him around .315.  he doesn't popout much and gets a decent number of infield hits.
s/c/z: patient hitter with okay eye and slightly below average contact skill
r/l: .765 vs .822 ops; 2.8 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .726 vs .832 ops; 2.4 k/bb both ways
p/o: pull hitter
other: none



BENCH

C Brad Ausmus (R): .314/.368/.343

proj: .220/.300/.290
bb: 9.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 51%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .270, which makes sense given his mediocre strikeout rate, weak power, his propensity to pop out, and his slow speed.
s/c/z: good eye, patient, decent contact
r/l:  .653 vs .729 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .700 vs .641 ops; 1.4 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


IF Mark Loretta (R): .288/.408/.339

proj: .275/.340/.365
bb: 9%
k: 11%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around average which seems about right.
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, very good contact
r/l: .742 vs .805 ops; 1.4 vs 0.7 k/bb
h/a: .802 vs .722 ops; 0.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


IF Juan Castro (R): .326/.396/.435

proj: .220/.270/.320
bb: 5.5%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected very low (around .260).  he doesn't have much power and isn't particularly fast, so this could be right.
s/c/z: good eye, not very patient, average contact
r/l: .605 vs .582 ops; 4.1 vs 1.8 k/bb; much more power against RHB though
h/a: .600 vs .598 ops; 3.3 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


OF Jamie Hoffman (R): .167/.150/.144

proj: .250/.305/.360
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 37% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: looks like he's projected to be average but not much info
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: better eye against lefties in minors so better but tought to tell
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none




ROTATION

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Clayton Kershaw (L): 4.34 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.11 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% cb, 5% ch, 0.3% sl
r/l: .752 vs .741 ops; 1.8 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .667 vs .843 ops; 2.9 vs 1.4 k/bb

Kershaw vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/7, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 2/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 2/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K


FRIDAY STARTER: Eric Milton (L): 3.14 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 66% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 6% sl, 0.2% ct
r/l: .775 vs .807 ops; 2.4 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: .779 vs .784 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb

Milton vs Phillies:

Stairs: 4/23, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K
Feliz: 6/11, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 4/12, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 3/6, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
WertH: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K


SATURDAY STARTER: Hiroki Kuroda (R): 2.53 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.77 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 59% fb, 26% sl, 12% sf, 2% ct, 0.2% cb
r/l: .605 vs .703 ops; 3.7 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .615 vs .688 ops; 4.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Kuroda vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Utey: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K


SUNDAY OPPONENT: Randy Wolf (L): 3.21 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.03 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 18% cb, 13% sl, 9% ch
r/l: .761 vs .706 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .724 vs .776 ops; 2.4 vs 2.1 k/bb

Wolf vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/16, 3 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Ibanez: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/6, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/3, 2 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K


NOT FACING US: Chad Billingsley (R): 2.59 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 2.85 FIP, 49% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 59% fb, 19% ct, 18% cb, 2% ch, 2% sl
r/l: .634 vs .766 ops; 2.8 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .702 vs .695 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Billingsley vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/12, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/8, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 SF
Utley: 2/7, 3 BB (2 IBB), 4 K
Victorino: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Werth: 2/7, 2 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 3/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K



BULLPEN

CL: Jonathan Broxton (R): 1.33 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 14.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.26 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 3.00 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 75% fb, 22% sl, 3% ch
r/l: .539 vs .694 ops; 7.7 vs 1.7 k/bb (major difference is walks)
h/a: .559 vs .671 ops; 3.5 vs 2.9 k/bb

Broxton vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 4 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Ronald Belisario (R): 2.23 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.61 FIP, 59% GB

proj avg: 6.00 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 81% fb, 18% sl, 0.4% ch
r/l: .533 vs .862 ops; 8k/0bb vs rhb, 9k/7bb vs lhb
h/a: .769 vs .615; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb

Belisario vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1 BB
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Cory Wade (R): 4.82 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.20 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 56% fb, 28% cb, 16% ch
r/l: .588 vs .584 ops; 2.3 vs 8.7 k/bb (not much data)
h/a: .421 vs .730 ops; 6.2 vs 2.2 k/bb (not much data)

Wade vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Guillermo Mota (R): 6.53 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.47 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 55% fb, 25% sl, 20% ch, 0.3% sf
r/l: .678 vs .727 op; 2.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .720 vs .680 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Mota vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 3/9, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/4, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Utley: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Brent Leach (L): 5.63 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 11.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.15 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 50% in minors last year
pitches: ?
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.6 k/bb in minors last year
h/a: not enough info

Leach vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Ramon Troncoso (R): 1.83 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.77 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% ch, 4% sl, 0.5% ct
r/l: .647 vs .633 ops; 2.6 vs 4.5 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .617 ops; 3.5 vs 2.9 k/bb

Troncoso vs Phillies:

Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB


Jeff Weaver (R): 4.05 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.57 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 5.15 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 50% fb, 20% sl, 16% cb, 7% ct, 8% ch
r/l: .687 vs .858 ops; 3.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .770 vs .785 ops; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb

Weaver vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 13/34, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 5/21, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Stairs: 7/17, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 5/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/5, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K


Travis Schlichting (R): has not played

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 40% in mionrs
pitches: ?
r/l: better control against RHB in minors
h/a: not enough info

Schlichting: has not played any Phillies

PHILLIES


LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .229/.270/.336

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average.  my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb.  otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.


2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .300/.349/.465

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate.  my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year


3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .298/.437/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs.  my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters


4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.348/.591

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep.  also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though.  probably above average overall-- my system sees him at .310.
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes.  however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him.  he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!"  in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably.  his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp.  he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip.  i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road.  very similar hr numbers.  2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position


5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .251/.346/.448

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average.  my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year


6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .337/.395/.703

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand.  my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none


7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .298/.356/.421

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls.  my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes.  swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home.  likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related


8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .291/.419/.477

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey.  his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot.  my system sees him at .288, but he seems to have trouble matching projections for him.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought


BENCH

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .135/.190/.243

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually  average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb.  he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none


IF Greg Dobbs (L): .200/.288/.378

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters.  given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp.  in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp.  he should never see them.  absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers


OF Matt Stairs (L): .303/.477/.606

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around.  my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency


OF John Mayberry Jr. (R): .222/.222/.667

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none


C Chris Coste (R): .246/.364/.446

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches.  my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat


ROTATION

THURSDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 5.21 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.45 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant.  ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar.  most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Dodgers:

Blake: 4/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Hudson: 2/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Kemp: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Loney: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Pierre: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Ethier: 0/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Ausmus: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K


FRIDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.75 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.56 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Dodgers:

Loretta: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Hudson: 6/22, 3 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Blake: 3/19, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Ausmus: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Pierre: 3/13, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Furcal: 4/10, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Kemp: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF


SATURDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.86 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1/21, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 Sac
Kemp: 2/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 4/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Hudson: 2/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Frucal: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K


SUNDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 1.50 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.65 FIP, 19% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played Padres



NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.48 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1 SF
Kemp: 1 BB
Loney: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K



BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.40 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 5.94 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Dodgers:

Pierre: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 0/8, 1 BB, 4 K
Castro: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Loretta: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Hudson: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Kemp: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Martin: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K


Ryan Madson (R): 2.39 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.93 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Dodgers:

Furcal: 3/18, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
Pierre: 3/14, 1 3B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Hudson: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 1/7, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Loney: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 1 BB, 2 Sac
Kemp: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K


Scott Eyre (L): 2.84 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 6.31 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Dodgers:

Loretta: 4/15, 2 BB, 4 K
Furcal: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Pierre: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac
Ausmus: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hudson: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Martin: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K


Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.81 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Dodgers:

Ethier: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Loney: 2/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Furcal: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Blake: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ausmus: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Chad Durbin (R): 4.23 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.03 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Dodgers:

Blake: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Kemp: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Martin: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Loretta: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 0/1, 0BB, 0K
Pierre: 1 BB


Clay Condrey (R): 2.20 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Dodgers:

Ethier: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 7/8, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 4/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Furcal: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Blake: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ausmus: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 1 BB


Chan Ho Park (R): 7.32 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.23 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Dodgers:

Pierre: 13/28, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 Sac
Furcal: 8/25, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Loretta: 7/23, 0 BB, 5 K
Ausmus: 4/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 Sac
Hudson: 5/14, 2 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Ethier: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Castro: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Martin: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Kemp: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Loney: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K


J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 25% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1/10, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Ausmus: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 2/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/1, 3 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Furcal: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K