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Phillies at Marlins: July 16-19

The Phillies (48-38) hope to maintain the momentum they had going in to the All-Star break when they go up against the second place Florida Marlins (46-44), who trail them by four games ahead of a four game set.  The Phillies, as you probably have heard, have added Pedro Martinez over the break, but he is not ready and won't be pitching this series. Instead, the Phillies have an opportunity to start the four guys that clearly are members of their rotation before figuring out who the 5th starter is against the Cubs next Monday.

Thursday, Jamie Moyer will look to add to his impressive history against the Marlins.  Moyer has not dominated them this year as he has in previous years, and it's natural to wonder whether statistics like 'pitcher vs team X' even do have any predictive information, but Moyer hopes they do.  He Marlins will throw righty Chris Volstad out against the Phillies.  Volstad is a hard throwing righty who does not strike out many batters, but has been pretty effective this year.  He throws primarily fastball/curveball, while mixing in a changeup, and this helps him get a lot of groundballs.

Friday, the Phillies send unlucky ace Cole Hamels to the mound.  Cole has been the victim of a bad BABIP this year, but as I continue to state, his peripheral numbers are too strong to generate concern.  Be ready for a strong second half, and hopefully a shot at being strong again in the playoffs.  The Marlins counter with Ricky Nolasco who was sent to the minors at one point this year despite solid peripheral numbers.  If you looked at his 5.76 ERA, you might not be scared but he has struck out nearly a batter an inning and walked barely two guys per nine innings.  He has a pretty average groundball rate.  You wouldn't know if by the ERAs, but this should be a close game.

Saturday, Josh Johnson pitches for the Marlins.  Johnson has been very strong this year, improving his strikeout rate and walking fewer batters, while also increasing his groundball rate.  He has a good slider, which makes him a bit tougher on righties than lefties.  The Phillies counter with Joe Blanton whose ERA is now starting to improve and approach what his peripherals have been telling us this year.  Blanton has seen an inexplicable increase in strikeout rate without adding a pitch, changing his usage, throwing more strikes, getting more swing-and-misses, or any other normal factor associated with an improved strikeout rate.  He's just pitched effectively and his ERA has yet to reflect thata.

Sunday, the Phillies send lucky lefty J.A. Happ to face the Marlins.  Happ's ERA has creeped under three, but his peripherals show an average pitcher at best.  While that is a pleasant surprise, do not expect him to maintain this pace and beware the commentators who call him an ace in the making.  Aces have better control, miss more bats, and generate more groundballs.  Happ may be someone the Phillies can trade high on if it helps them land a Canadian ace pitcher of some kind.  The Marlins counter with young lefty Andrew Miller.  Miller has done a good job generating groundballs, but he has been wild and hasn't struck out enough batters to be all that effective.  He's very talented, though, and could be very tough to manage, especially for the Phillies left leaning lineup.


The matchups:
Thursday, 7:10--
Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Chris Volstad (R)
Friday, 7:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Ricky Nolasco (R)
Saturday, 7:10--
Joe Blanton (R) vs. Josh Johnson (R)
Sunday, 1:10-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Andrew Miller (L)

After the split, I preview the players, the splits, and the matchups.

MARLINS

LINE UP

1) Chris Coghlan (L): .245/.342/.335

proj: .260/.330/.380
bb: 8.5%
k: 15%
gb: 55%
iff: 30% (in first 10 flyballs)
ifh: 6%
babip: high groundball rate but high popout rate; projected around average
s/c/z: not a great eye, average contact
r/l: not much of a split in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems to be a slight pull hitter but tough to know
other: none


2) 3B Emilio Bonifacio (S): .258/.304/.324

projection average (proj): .260/.315/.340
projected BB/PA (bb): 6.5%
projected K/AB (k): 21%
career gb% (gb): 56%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 5%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 14%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): He gets a lot of infield hits, so the infield has to play in, so his groundballs and line drives find their way through more.  He also avoids infield popups.  So he should be able to hit around .330 on balls in play.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): about average all around
righty/lefty (r/l):  thus far he has 16 K's and 1 BB against LHP as RHB.
home/away (h/a): thus far very poor on the road: 5.0 k/bb instead of 2.0.
pull/opposite (p/o): spreads ball around very well from both sides
anything else (other): none


3) SS Hanley Ramirez (R): .349/.411/.567

proj: .310/.385/.530
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 10%
babip: excellent babip on groundballs with speed, excellent babip on line drives since he has power and hits deep liners
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact
r/l:  .886/.975; 1.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .924/.890
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundballers and relatively weaker against power pitchers than others


4) 1B Jorge Cantu (R): .287/.332/.454

proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 6.5%
k: 19%
gb: 39%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: hacks a lot, makes average contact
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: much better at home, especially in terms of power and babip
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none


5) 2B Dan Uggla (R): .227/.340/.429

proj: .260/.340/.475
bb: 10%
k: 26%
gb: 37%
iff: 8%
ifh: 9%
babip: pretty good on groundballs, projected to be average
s/c/z: pretty good eye but poor contact
r/l: .854/.761
h/a: .830/.833 but slight improvement in k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none


6) LF Jeremy Hermida (L): .255/.345/.399

proj: .270/.355/.445
bb: 11%
k: 25%
gb: 45%
iff: 9%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected pretty high but doesn't seem to profile as such at all
s/c/z: poor eye but average contact
r/l: .793 vs .741; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .729/.828: better on road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none


7) RF Cody Ross (R): .278/.337/.498

proj: .265/.330/.485
bb: 8%
k: 24%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot, but doesn't make good contact
r/l: .729/.941; 3.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: not real splits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


8) C John Baker (L): .258/.332/.421

proj: .265/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 23%
gb: 50%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected to be pretty high (.320ish) but he doesn't seem to profile as a high babip guy to me
s/c/z: swings rarely and makes good contact, okay eye
r/l:  1.3 vs 2.5 k/bb, thus far has made weak contact vs lhp
h/a: .908/.763
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


BENCH

C Ronny Paulino (R): .241/.303/.376

proj: .265/.325/.405
bb: 8%
k: 19%
gb: 47%
iff: 6%
ifh: 8%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: good eye and somewhat good contact
r/l:  .643/.928 career.  2.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .736/.698
p/o: hits to opposite field slightly more
other: struggles against power pitchers

1B Ross Gload (L): .282/.348/.419

proj: .280/.325/.405
bb: 6%
k: 12%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye and good contact but swings a lot, and he sees lots of strikes.
r/l:  does as well against lefties in his experiences against him, but he doesn't bat against them rarely and the lack of splits is probably selection bias as he only gets to face weaker lefties
h/a: .775/.713 but similar k/bb numbers
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


IF Andy Gonzalez (R): .250/.250/.750

proj: .230/.320/.340
bb: 11%
k: 25%
gb: 48%
iff: 17%
ifh: 1%
babip: projected around .285
s/c/z: patient, okay eye, not so great contact
r/l: .499 vs .639 ops; 3.1 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .609 vs .527 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


IF Wes Helms (R): .244/.290/.303

proj: .255/.320/.400
bb: 7%
k: 24%
gb: 40%
iff: 6%
ifh: 6%
babip: a little above average as he avoids infield flies
s/c/z: okay eye poor contact
r/l:  4.0 vs 2.1 k/bb; .712/.815 ops
h/a: .776/.717 ops
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around well
other: none

OF Brett Carroll (R): .267/.329/.467

proj: .235/.290/.400
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 6%
ifh: 14%
babip: not much info to tell; projected  below average
s/c/z: free swinger who makes very bad contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none



ROTATION

THURSDAY STARTER: Chris Volstad (R): 4.44 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.58 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% cb, 9% ch
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but not much info

Volstad vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/13, 2 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 4/12, 3 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Utley: 2/9, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 2/13, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/11, 0 BB, 4 K
Ruiz: 2/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K


FRIDAY STARTER: Ricky Nolasco (R): 5.76 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.53 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 5% fb, 27% cb, 16% sl, 5% sf, 1% ch
r/l: 5.1 vs 2.2 k/bb!  .682 vs .811 ops
h/a: 3.9 vs 2.8 k/bb but .682 vs .811 ops

Nolasco vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Utley: 6/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 3/13, 3 HR, 6 BB (4 IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 3/16, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 3/9, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 2/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Bako: 0/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K


SATURDAY STARTER: Josh Johnson (R): 2.74 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.94 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.7 vs 1.7 k/bb; .666 vs .746 ops
h/a: 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .734 vs .676 ops though

Johnson vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 5/16, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 0 XBH
Victorino: 3/16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 3/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 6 K
Werth: 1/4, 2 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2


SUNDAY STARTER: Andrew Miller (L): 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.05 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 75% fb, 16% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; .841 vs .699 ops though-- probably selection bias as managers avoided putting lefties against him
h/a: .792 vs .823

Miller vs Phillies:

Utley: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/15, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 8/15, 3 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/12, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Ibanez: 1/7, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Ruiz: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 2/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/6, 1 BB, 4 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB


BULLPEN

CL Dan Meyer (L): 1.78 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.52 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 26%
pitches: 64% fb, 17% sl, 19% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; .913 vs .985 ops (selection bias)
h/a: 1.0 vs 1.9 k/bb; .964 vs .908

Meyer vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/6, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Renyel Pinto (L): 2.81 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.16 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% ch, 8% sl
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; .680 vs .744 ops (selection bias again)
h/a: .675 vs .734 ops; 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb

Pinto vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Utley: 5/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 2/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB


Leo Nunez (R): 3.79 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.25 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 61% fb, 20% ch, 19% sl
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.3 k/bb; .727 vs .888 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .731 vs .868 ops

Nunez vs Phillies:

Stairs: 2/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Kiko Calero (R): 1.95 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 11.1 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.26 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 66% fb, 29% sl, 5% ch
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .597 vs .791 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Calero vs Phillies:

Feliz: 3/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB (2 IBB), 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1 SF
Rollins: 1 SF
Victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K


Brian Sanches (R): 1.25 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.43 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 49% fb, 22% sl, 18% sf, 6% ch, 5% cb
r/l: 1.8 vs 1.1 k/bb; .896 ops both ways
h/a: 1.1 vs 2.1 k/bb; 1.004 vs .745 ops

Sanches vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 1 BB


Brendan Donnelly (R): 3 IP with 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 0 HR; 1.75 ERA in 25.2 IP in AAA, 23/7 K/BB; 0 HR

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.7 Bb/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 51% fb, 40% sl, 5% ch, 4% sf
r/l: .626 vs .660 ops; 4.0 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .624 vs .660 ops; 2.6 vs 2.7 k/bb

Donnelly vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 4/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Luis Ayala (R): 4.18 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.40 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 61% fb, 28% sl, 12% ch
r/l: .670 vs .824 ops; 4.2 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .712 vs .762 ops; 3.0 vs 2.8 k/bb

Ayala vs Phillies:

Rollins: 1/14, 1 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Howard: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bruntlett: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 SF
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Burke Badenhop (R): 3.45 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.70 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 71% fb, 15% sl, 14% ch
r/l: 4.8 k/bb vs rhb, 0.7 k/bb vs lhb; also had huge splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Badenhop vs. Phillies;

Bako: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


DISABLED LIST: Christopher Leroux (L): 11.12 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 3.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.42 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.70 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 50% about in minors but just in low minors
pitches: ?
r/l: seems better against righties actually
h/a: not enough info

Leroux: has not faced any Phillies



DISABLED LIST:  Matt Lindstrom (R): 6.52 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.34 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 77% fb, 19% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb; .621 vs .714 ops
h/a: .623 vs .704 ops; 3.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Lindstrom vs Phillies (not updated since last series):

Victorino: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1 BB
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K




DISABLED LIST: Anibal Sanchez (R): 5.55 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.20 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 57% fb, 19% sl, 16% cb, 8% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .653 vs .780 ops; 2.2 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .668 vs .782; 1.9 vs 1.1 k/bb

Sanchez vs Phillies (not updated since last series):

Utley: 5/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 3/12, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 4/8, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Rollins: 4/10, 1 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB





PHILLIES



LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .229/.287/.355

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb.  otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.


2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .309/.375/.464

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year


3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .313/.430/.573

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially

for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters


4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.341/.529

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep.  also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though.  probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes.  however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him.  he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!"  in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably.  his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp.  he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip.  i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road.  very similar hr numbers.  2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position


5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .263/.371/.513

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year


6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .309/.367/.649

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none


7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .293/.338/.418

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes.  swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home.  likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related


8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .235/.335/.367

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey.  his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought


BENCH:

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .139/.207/.208

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually  average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb.  he should be used as acounterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none


IF Greg Dobbs (L): .269/.311/.463

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters.  given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp.  in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp.  he should never see them.  absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers


OF Matt Stairs (L): .283/.434/.517

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency


C Paul Bako (L): .214/.267/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none


LF John Mayberry (R): .184/.231/.469

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none


ROTATION

THURSDAY STARTEr: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.99 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.84 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Marlins:

Ramirez: 12/36, 1 3B, 4 HR, 4 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Uggla: 7/35, 2 2B, 1 BB, 13 K
Ross: 7/32, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Cantu: 7/23, 4 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 4/19, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HBP
Helms: 6/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Paulino: 5/11, 0 BB, 1 K
Baker: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Coghlan: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Carroll: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K



FRIDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.87 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant.  ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar.  most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 9/24, 6 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Uggla: 3/23, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Helms: 6/18, 2 2B, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Ross: 4/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 4/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Cantu: 3/13, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Baker: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K


SATURDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 4.44 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.74 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Marlins:

Cantu: 4/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Bonifacio: 2/11, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Baker: 1/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Uggla: 1/6, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Ross: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Coghlan: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Gload: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Helms: 0/1, 0 Bb, 0 K


SUNDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.90 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Marlins:

Cantu: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Helms: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K


NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB; in MLB: 3.18 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0 HR/9, 2.18 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb



BULLPEN


CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.03 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 10.4 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 5.88 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Marlins:

Helms: 3/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Paulino: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Cantu: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hermida: 2/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Baker: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Uggla: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Carroll: 1 BB


Ryan Madson (R): 3.02 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.40 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Uggla: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Cantu: 2/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/7, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Hermida: 0/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Ross: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K. 1 HBP
Baker: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gload: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Chad Durbin (R): 4.47 ERA, 5.7 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Marlins:

Baker: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Ross: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Gload: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coghlan: 1 BB


Chan Ho Park (R): 5.49 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.00 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Marlins:

Ramirez: 6/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 1/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Cantu: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Baker: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bonifacio: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Paulino: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Coghlan: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Helms: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K


J.C. Romero (L): 3.14 ERA, 7.5 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 6.27 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Marlins:

Helms: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 1 BB
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Tyler Walker (R): 1.64 ERA, 0.8 BB/9, 4.1 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.79 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Marlins:

Helms: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Cantu: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Baker: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Nolasco: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Scott Eyre (L): 2.16 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.17 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Marlins:

Hermida: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 1 BB


Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.54 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hermida: 1/7, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Helms: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Baker: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coghlan: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K