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Phillies vs. Reds: July 6-9

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The Phillies (42-37) head into this four-game set with the Cincinnati Reds (40-40) in a much better position than they were in before this weekend.  After sweeping the rival New York Mets, the Phillies now have a one-game lead in first over the Marlins and a four game lead over both the Braves and Mets.  The Reds were not considered contenders by many heading into this season but they are only three games out of a middling NL Central.  That would have been even closer had they not just lost two of three to the Cardinals, who currently lead the Central, but the Reds are certainly within striking distance.


MATCHUPS:
MONDAY, 7:05--
Cole Hamels (L) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)
TUESDAY, 7:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Aaron Harang (R)
WEDNESDAY, 7:05-- Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Homer Bailey (R)
THURSDAY, 7:05-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Micah Owings (R)

After the jump, I preview both teams' players, splits (not including 2009 yet), and the matchups.  Don't forget to vote for me this week in BP Idol!

REDS


LINE UP

1) LF Chris Dickerson (L):
.278/.377/.392

proj: .250/.330/.420
bb: 11%
k: 32%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .330ish which might be a bit high
s/c/z: averag eye, average patient, poor contact skill
r/l: .877 vs .838 ops; 2.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .984 vs .789 ops; 1.7 vs 2.4 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


2) CF Willy Taveras (R): .244/.288/.302

projection average (proj): .270/.330/.340
projected BB/PA (bb): 6.5%
projected K/AB (k): 16.5%
career gb% (gb): 53%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 12%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .320-- does poorly on flyballs & linedrives due to weak power; very high on grounders and hits a lot of

them; .320 might be high be probably is realistic
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): patient, but he gets thrown a lot of strikes; pretty good eye
righty/lefty (r/l): .675 vs .656 ops; 2.9 vs 2.2 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .686 vs .656 ops; 2.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): none


3) 1B Joey Votto (L): .364/.454/.619

proj: .285/.365/.490
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 5%
babip: does well on flyballs because he avoids popups, not particularly fast, spreads ball around well; projected .320-.330 which seems about right
s/c/z: good eye, not particularly patient, not quite average contact skill
r/l: .926 vs .849 ops; 1.4 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .917 vs .884 ops; 1.7 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: great against finesse pitchers


4) 2B Brandon Phillips (R): .268/.337/.460

proj: .270/.320/.440
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 47%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected slightly below average which makes sense given popout rate and mediocre power
s/c/z: free swinger, poor eye, somewhat poor contact skill
r/l: .687 vs .846 ops; 3.5 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .766 vs .700 ops; 2.7 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


5) RF Jay Bruce (L): .217/.295/.462

proj: .275/.330/.500
bb: 7.5%
k: 26.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 17%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected very high despite high popup rate; good power and pretty fast, so maybe not projected all that much higher than it should (.325ish projection, should be .310 or

so, i'd say)
s/c/z: free swinger, poor contact skill
r/l: .907 vs .555 ops; 2.8 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .903 vs .676 ops; 2.1 vs 4.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


6) Edwin Encarnacion (R): .125/.267/.194

proj: .275/.360/.480
bb: 9.5%
k: 19%
gb: 38%
iff: 17%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .300 but i have him at .283.
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, average contact
r/l: .768 vs .834; 2.5 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .832 vs .747 ops; 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better as game goes on against starter


7) C Ramon Hernandez (R): .252/.333/.368

proj: .260/.320/.415
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 46%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, good contact, average patience, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .735 vs .774 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .725 ops; 1.7 both ways
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


8) SS Paul Janish (R): .233/.300/.288

proj: .235/.300/.350
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 34%
iff: 18%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .275-.280, but that seems even too high given popup rate and speed
s/c/z: okay eye but not patient, okay contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .520 vs .768 ops; 4.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .588 vs .637 ops; 4.0 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none


BENCH

C Ryan Hanigan (R): .338/.428/.404

proj: .265/.340/.360
bb: 10%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 16%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around average.  high groundball rate, but high popup rate and weak power indicates this is probably way too high
s/c/z: good eye and contact, very patient
r/l: .801 vs .643 ops; 0.7 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .819 vs .645 ops; 0.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


OF Laynce Nix (L): .251/.301/.497

proj: .250/.300/.350
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected about average which seems reasonable, not much power and pops out a lot, but he still does have decent speed
s/c/z: free swinger, not a great eye, poor contact skill
r/l: .719 vs .486 ops; 5.2 vs 10.0 k/bb
h/a: .703 vs .666 ops; 5.0 vs 6.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers


OF Jonny Gomes (R): 333/.427/.587

proj: .240/.340/.470
bb: 11%
k: 30%
gb: 29%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected just under .300
s/c/z: impatient, so-so eye, below average contact
r/l: .745 vs .898 ops; 3.0 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .795 vs .798 ops; 2.3 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers and finesse pitchers


IF Drew Sutton (S): .000/.000/.000

proj: .240/.340/.410
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: ?
babip: .320 in minors
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: .769 vs .857 ops career in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none


IF/OF Jerry Hairston Jr. (R): .258/.313/.402

proj: .270/.330/.400
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 35%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .300
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, good contact
r/l: .696 vs .709 ops; 1.6 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .719 vs .682 ops; 1.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


DISABLED LIST: SS Alex Gonzalez (R): .214/.256/.302

proj: .255/.310/.410
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 35%
iff: 18%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected only around .290 but given high popup rate, weak power, poor eye, it seems that may be overestimating him
s/c/z: poor eye, impatient, average contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .691 vs .690 ops; 4.0 vs 3.3 k/bb
h/a: .681 vs .701 ops; 3.8 vs 3.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


SENT TO AAA: OF Darnell McDonald (R): .154/.250/.225

proj: .260/.320/.410
bb: 7%
k: 22%
gb: 56%
iff: 20%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected slightly above average (.310ish) which seems possible given high groundball rate.  infield flyrate is high in majors, but that's just 3 popups in 15 flyballs
s/c/z: not all that patient, and bad eye, very bad contact skill too
r/l: .286 vs .571 ops (29 & 47 PA); 4.0 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none


SENT TO AAA: 3B Adam Rosales (R): .197/.286/.276

proj: .250/.320/.430
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 41%
iff: 19%
ifh: 14%
babip: high popup rate so may be overprojected
s/c/z: pretty good eye, patient, not great contact
r/l: .688 vs .842 ops in minors last year
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems to spread ball around well
other: none


ROTATION

MONDAY OPPONENT: Johnny Cueto (R): 2.69 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.08 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 8.1 HR/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% sl, 7% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .768 vs .759 ops; 3.6 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .776 vs .752 ops; 2.7 vs 2.1 k/bb

Cueto: has not played any Phillies


TUESDAY OPPONENT: Aaron Harang (R): 3.86 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.87 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% sl, 3% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .784 vs .735 ops; 3.6 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .757 ops; 2.9 vs 3.1 k/bb

Harang vs Phillies:

Rollins: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/21, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Utley: 7/14, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/11, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/10, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 1/5, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Stairs: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Cairo: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K


WEDNESDAY STARTER: Homer Bailey (R): 5.94 ERA, 8.1 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 5.50 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 71% fb, 11% cb, 10% ch, 8% swl
r/l: .854 vs .817 ops; 1.0 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Bailey vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
victorino: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


THURSDAY OPPONENT: Micah Owings (R): 4.48 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.30 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 HR/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 64% fb, 18% sl, 15% ch, 2% ct, 0.2% cb
r/l: .697 vs .828 ops; 2.7 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .760 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Owings vs Phillies:

Victorino: 1/9, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 3/7, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Howard: 1/7, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


NOT FACING US: Bronson Arroyo (R): 5.85 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.98 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 47% fb, 20% sl, 19% cb, 12% ch, 3% ct
r/l: .709 vs .828 ops; 3.1 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .767 ops; 2.4 vs 2.1 k/bb

Arroyo vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 4/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 2/6, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 SF
Victorino: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Coste: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K


DISABLED LIST: Edinson Volquez (R): 4.35 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.95 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 9% cb, 4% sl
r/l: .767 vs .716 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .752 vs .731 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Volquez vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 3/9, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 0/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 2B, 3 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K


BULLPEN

CL Francisco Cordero (R): 1.80 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.98 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 52% fb, 37% sl, 2% ch, 0.2% sf
r/l: .656 vs .695 ops; 3.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .668 vs .685 ops; 2.3 vs 2.2 k/bb

Cordero vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Dobbs: 0/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


David Weathers (R): 2.63 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.95 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 59% fb, 33% sl, 8% ch
r/l: .737 vs .791 ops; 2.1 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .780 vs .739 ops; 1.5 vs 1.8 k/bb

Weathers vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/10, 2 2B, 4 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 2/2, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


Arthur Rhodes (L): 1.88 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.56 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 69% fb, 28% sl, 3% ch
r/l: .733 vs .611 ops; 2.0 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .705 vs .684 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb

Rhodes vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 2/7, 3 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


Danny Herrera (L): 1.97 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.97 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 60%
pitches: 38% fb, 25% ch, 21% sl, 13% cb, 2% ct
r/l: 1.105 vs .326 ops; 1.6 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.4 k/bb

Herrera vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB (IBB)
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


Nick Masset (R): 1.67 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.88 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 69% fb, 15% sl, 13% cb, 3% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .764 vs .831 ops; 1.4 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .937 vs .637 ops; 1.3 vs 1.2 k/bb

Masset vs Phillies:

Cairo: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
ROllins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Josh Roenicke (R): 0.00 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.76 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 27% thus far, 50% in minors
pitches: 72% fb, 17% ct, 8% sl, 2% cb
r/l: little better against righties in minors but not much
h/a: not enough info

Roenicke: has not faced any Phillies


Carlos Fisher (R): 3.93 ERA, 7.4 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.53 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 37% thus far, 56% in minors
pitches: 61% fb, 34% sl, 4% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 3.0 vs 2.1 k/bb in minors
h/a: not enough info

Fisher: has not faced any Phillies


DISABLED LIST: Mike Lincoln (R): 8.22 ERA, 7.4 BB/9, 3.5 K/9, 2.7 HR/9, 9.21 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 58% fb, 30% cb, 5% sl, 5% ct, 3% ch
r/l: .779 vs .861 ops; 1.7 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .783 vs .850 ops; 1.6 vs 1.8 k/bb

Lincoln vs Phillies:

Cairo: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


SENT TO AAA: Ramon Ramirez (R): 7.71 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 11.6 K/9, 3.9 HR/9, 8.61 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 54% fb, 20% sl, 26% ch, 0.3% sf
r/l: .566 vs .723 ops; 2.8 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .587 ops; 2.3 vs 2.2 k/bb

Ramirez vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


SENT TO AAA: Jared Burton (R): 4.81 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 52% ct, 25% fb, 17% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .654 vs .675 ops; 2.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .662 vs .663 ops; 1.8 vs 2.1 k/bb

Burton vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES


LINE UP


1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .217/.266/.345

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb.  otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.


2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .300/.363/.447

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield

fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year


3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .301/.426/.559

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially

for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters


4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .252/.326/.519

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep.  also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though.  probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes.  however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him.  he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!"  in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably.  his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp.  he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip.  i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road.  very similar hr numbers.  2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position


5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .261/.365/.482

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year


6) LF John Mayberry (R): .209/.244/.535

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none


7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .292/.340/.415

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line

drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes.  swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes

average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home.  likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related


8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .234/.337/.364

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey.  his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good

babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought


BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .248/.345/.386

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat


IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually  average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb.  he should be used as a

counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none


IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.293/.433

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power

hitters.  given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp.  in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp.  he should never see them.  absolutely no power

against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers


OF Matt Stairs (L): .276/.408/.466

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency


C Paul Bako (L): .214/.333/.286

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none


DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none


ROTATION

MONDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant.  ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar.  most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Reds:

Phillips: 1/12, 1 BB, 6 K
Bruce: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Hairston: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Votto: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP


TUESDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.63 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not faced any Reds


WEDNESDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB; in MLB: 6.1 IP, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb


THURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.72 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.69 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Reds:

Hernandez: 5/37, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Hairston: 3/17, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Nix: 1/11, 0 BB, 4 K
Gonzalez: 4/6, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Philips: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K


NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 4.69 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.77 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 3/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 3/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K


BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.06 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 5.73 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 0/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Phillips: 0/7, 1 BB, 2 K
Taveras: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Votto: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Nix: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Arroyo: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruce: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K


Ryan Madson (R): 3.32 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.55 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Taveras: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Nix: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Chad Durbin (R): 4.25 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.19 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Reds:

Hernandez: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Hairston: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
McDonald: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Phillips: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Chan Ho Park (R): 5.79 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.11 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Reds:

Taveras: 3/15, 1 BB, 1 K
Gonzalez: 2/12, 2 BB, 6 K
Hernandez: 4/7, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hairston: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K


J.C. Romero (L): 3.00 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Reds:

Hernandez: 1/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 2/6, 1 BB, 0 K
Nix: 0/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Votto: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruce: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Reds:

Hernandez: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Phillips: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Votto: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 k
Bruce: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Reds:

Phillips: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Taveras: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gonzalez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Votto: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Reds:

Gonzalez: 0/3, 2 BB (IBB), 1 K
Taveras: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Phillips: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K