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From First Place Over the Mets to First Place Over the Marlins: How We Got Here

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The Phillies high water mark for the season came on June 4.  They had just beaten the Dodgers for their seventh win in a row, fourth in a row on the road.  They were 42-30, four games up on the Mets.  The Braves were 6 games behind, playing .500 ball.  The Marlins were 7.5 games behind, 3 games under .500.

Fast forward to the start of play today.  The Phillies are still in first place, but this time only one game up on the Marlins.  The Mets are still four games back, but so are the Braves.  And they're both 3 games under .500.

How'd we get here, despite a horrible interleague stretch?  The standings below, for games from June 5 to July 5 (inclusive), tell the story:

W L Win % RS RA Diff.
FLA 17 11 0.607 123 114 9
ATL 13 16 0.448 116 122 -6
NYM 11 18 0.379 109 145 -36
PHL 10 17 0.370 117 134 -17
WAS 10 17 0.370 98 128 -30

Since June 4, the Phillies have been terrible. In fact, they've been as bad as the Nationals. But, lucky for the Phils, the Mets have been almost equally as bad.

The Marlins, on the other hand, picked a great time to get hot. However, their 9 run differential over the past 28 games does not indicate the Marlins are clobbering their opposition. Rather, they're getting lucky in close games. Their success shouldn't be sustainable.

Just like the Phillies' failure.