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The Least Important Probables Chart of the Year (Oct. 1-3)

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So we still have three games left in the season? No kidding.

The chart below reflects the likely starters for this weekend's rather anticlimactic series in Atlanta. The Phillies haven't officially announced their Saturday and Sunday starters yet, but it sounds like they're probably going to use Cole Hamels and Vance Worley, respectively. Hamels will be on a low pitch count for his game. Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt are unlikely to pitch in the series at all. If Charlie elects to have them pitch Games 1 and 2 of the DS, they will do so on eight and nine days' rest, respectively. (Which seems like kind of a long time.)

Worley's and Brandon Beachy's stats below are, of course, meaningless. Tim Hudson's start on Sunday will be his second straight on three days' rest. He threw 100 pitches in his last start, which was on Wednesday against the Marlins.

The Braves enter the series 2.0 games up on the Padres for the wild card. Since the Padres and Giants are playing each other this weekend and since the Braves' record is only 1.0 games behind the Giants' record, the Braves have already clinched at least a tie for the NL wildcard berth, and will clinch the berth outright unless the Phillies sweep them and the Padres win either two or three of their games against the Giants. [Edit: Actually that last point is wrong - see Screen Name 20's comment below.]


Day Pitcher G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP GB% LD% FB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
Friday Kendrick 32 30 175.2 4.20 2.36 1.33 .289 44.8 17.0 38.2 11.3% 4.76 4.92 4.79 4.90
Beachy 2 2 9.1 9.64 5.79 1.67 .355 26.9 34.6 38.5 0.0% 2.89 2.87 4.34 4.22
Saturday Hamels 32 32 206.2 9.10 2.61 1.13 .298 45.4 16.8 37.8 12.4% 3.09 3.69 3.43 3.19
Hanson 33 33 197.2 7.60 2.46 0.64 .293 41.1 16.8 42.2 5.9% 3.41 3.35 4.08 3.76
Sunday Worley 4 1 8.0 10.13 2.25 1.13 .307 42.9 19.0 38.1 12.5% 2.25 3.21 2.95 2.75
Hudson 33 33 221.2 5.52 2.96 0.73 .257 64.7 13.5 21.8 12.4% 2.76 4.01 3.85 3.65