[Part II of a four-part series]
Alright, no more making you read prospect analysis primers or blurbs on guys who missed the cut -- today begins the rolling out of the Phillies Top 30 prospects for the 2010 season. I've structured it as a reverse countdown to, um, build drama*, so you'll see the middle 10 on Wednesday, and the Top 10 on Friday.
*Yeah, I know, everyone knows Domonic Brown is #1.
So go ahead and check below the jump as we get this shindig underway...
30.) Zach Collier, OF-L, Lakewood
How do I put this delicately... Collier had a subpar 2009. He was overmatched at Lakewood (.218/.275/.319, 69 wRC+ in 82 games), demoted to Williamsport, and was overmatched there as well (.226/.280/.336,89 wRC+ in 34 games). The good news is that he was 18 for the entire year, and scouts still see flashes of the potential that made him a first round pick a year and a half ago. I'm willing to give him a mulligan for now and see how he performs in his Age 19 season, but it's pretty clear at this point that Anthony Gose has the lead in the Hewitt/Collier/Gose 2008 draftee race.
29.) Matt Way, LHP, Clearwater
Way is a pitchability lefty drafted by the Phils in the 2009 5th round as an underslot bonus guy. His 2009 split between Williamsport and Lakewood (75.1 IP, 10.2 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.24 HR/9) was incredibly successful, but as a college senior dominating short season and Low-A, it doesn't tell us a whole lot. Still, given the impressive senior season (107.1 IP, 10.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, 2.43 ERA) at Washington St. in the hitter-friendly Pac-10, the athleticism, and the devastating change up, I'm willing to take a flier on him here. The Phillies would be best served by starting him no lower than Clearwater, then moving him quickly to see what they've got.
28.) Jonathan Villar, SS-S, Williamsport
I'm actually a little wary of Villar based on his plate discipline numbers -- between the GCL and Williamsport, he posted an 11.0% BB, 28.6% K, and only an .090 ISO -- but the scouting reports are pretty positive, and as an 18-year old shortstop, he offers both projection and positional value. Villar finished with a 135 wRC+ in the GCL (31 games), and even a slightly above-average 101 wRC+ in the NYPL (11 games), so overall, it was an encouraging stateside debut for the 18-year old Dominican.
27.) Jesus Sanchez, RHP, Clearwater
Despite being 21 coming into 2009, Sanchez had logged a grand total of 1 pro inning as a pitcher -- because he had been a catcher for 4 seasons, a career path he gave up after hitting .220/.295/.274 over 355 plate appearances. Shifted to the mound, Sanchez had a breakout campaign at Lakewood, logging 136 innings with excellent peripherals: 7.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.26 HR/9, 38.6% GB, and a 2.77 FIP. I haven't really seen anything in the way of a scouting report, but Sanchez always had a strong arm, and the fact that his platoon split was miniscule shows precocious pitching aptitude, especially for a conversion project. The organization liked him enough to protect him on the 40-man roster, so clearly there's some upside here.
26.) Kelly Dugan, OF-S, Lakewood
The Phillies' initial selection (in the 2nd round, 75th overall) in 2009, Dugan is a switch-hitting corner outfielder with a bit of power projection. His stint in the Gulf Coast League was hardly a rousing success (.233/.297/.300, 7.2% BB, 20.0% K, 83 wRC+ in 167 PA), but it's tough to put much stock into a high school draftee's first pro numbers unless they're either spectacularly good or alarmingly bad. Dugan could wind up at either Williamsport or Lakewood in 2010, and it will be interesting to see if he's able to adapt as he begins his first full pro season.
25.) Mike Stutes, RHP, Lehigh Valley
The organization was aggressive with Stutes, double-jumping him to Double-A as a 23-year old in his first full pro season. The results were what you might expect for someone facing that big of a challenge -- solid, but hardly awe-inspiring (6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 38.6% GB, 4.40 FIP in 145.2 IP). Between the advanced age, the significant platoon split, better numbers in his first time through a lineup, and a scouting report that indicates a solid slider, I'm thinking Stutes profiles best as a reliever at this point -- and in that capacity, I like him a touch less than the next two guys on the list.
24.) B.J. Rosenberg, RHP, Reading
As Lakewood's closer last year, the hard-throwing Rosenberg simply overmatched younger hitters: his 1.33 FIP, 11.6 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 0.00 HR/9 tell you all you really need to know. He finished his SAL career on a 27.2-inning scoreless streak, then wasn't quite as dominant in a brief promotion to Double-A. The Phillies like him enough that he's a non-roster invitee to spring training this year, and he'll likely head back to Reading to begin 2010. At 24, he's nearly the finished product, and should be ready to help the big league bullpen at some point in 2011.
23.) Michael Schwimer, RHP, Reading
Schwimer (14th) was chosen a round behind Rosenberg (13th) in the 2008 draft, and performed similarly to B.J. this year, albeit at a higher level: in 60.0 innings in Clearwater, Schwimer posted a line of 12.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.30 HR/9, 43.9% GB, and a 1.95 FIP. He has solid but unspectacular velocity, but there's a lot to like beyond that: Schwimer's a big dude (6'8", 240-lbs.), commands all of his pitches, shows little platoon split, and has an advanced approach to pitching (as demonstrated here, in one of the better blog entries I've ever read). He should likewise begin at Reading, with 2011 as the goal for a big league call-up.
22.) Freddy Galvis, SS-S, Reading
Galvis gets on here on the strength of his glove alone, which according to scouting reports is probably major league ready right now. Perhaps that's why the Phillies have rushed him, even promoting him to Reading as a 19-year old last year despite middling numbers in Clearwater (.247/.280/.307, 3.7% BB, 17.1% K, 69 wRC+). The best thing for Galvis' development would be to send him back to Clearwater to start 2010 -- if he's going to stick as a switch-hitter, he needs reps at a level he can handle, especially from the right side (he hit .202/.208/.240 against southpaws last year). Galvis' best case scenario is probably Adam Everett -- a .245/.297/.351 career hitter, yes, but recall that Everett's glove is so good that he posted a series of 2.3-2.6 WAR years earlier in the decade.
21.) Jonathan Pettibone, RHP, Lakewood
Pettibone is Exhibit A for why standard statistics can be misleading. He was just 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA for Williamsport in 2009, but beneath the surface, there was a lot to like: the 9.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, and 49.6% GB in 35.1 IP all added up to a 2.61 FIP. He didn't turn 19 until late July, and a midseason injury limited his innings, so there's reason to move him slowly as we move forward, but young projectable (6'5", 200-lb.) righthanders who throw hard are a nice asset to have on hand.
Be sure to check back on Wednesday for #20 to #11, and again on Friday for the Top 10.