FanPost

Stat Notes - June 3

[Ed. Note. - delayed front pag'd, but really good stuff here.]

First, the obligatory "it's not as bad as it feels" note:

Record through game 52 in the past 3 years...

2008 2009 2010
Wins 28 32 28
Lead -2.5 4 -2.5
Runs 260 290 238
Runs Allowed 227 254 205
Diff 33 36 33
pythag wins 29.5 29.4 29.9

- same wins (28) and lead (2.5 behind) as in 2008
- in spite of the offensive drought, the same run differential as in 2008 and only slightly below 2009's
- pythagorean formula projects slightly more wins

Hitting
Actually, this really is as bad as it feels:
- 26 runs in the last 15 games
- fewest runs in any 15 games in 2009: 42 (8/24-9/8 and 8/25-9/9)
- fewest runs in any 15 games in 2008: 46 (8/2-8/17)

Thru 5/17 (37 G, 1465 PAs): .280/.349/.465 (.815 OPS) - 5.73 R/G
Since 5/18 (15 G, 532 PAs): .202/.282/.288 (.569 OPS) - 1.73 R/G

Selected ratios (% of PAs):

Games Total
2008 2009 1-37 38-52 2010
BABIP .283 .286 .313 .243 .294
Singles 13.8% 13.7% 15.2% 13.0% 14.6%
Doubles/Triples 5.2% 5.5% 6.3% 3.9% 5.7%
HRs 3.4% 3.5% 3.1% 1.1% 2.6%
XBH as % of H 38.5% 39.7% 38.2% 28.1% 36.1%
P/PA 3.84 3.86 3.85 3.98 3.89
BB 9.3% 9.3% 9.1% 9.0% 9.1%
K 17.8% 18.2% 17.1% 18.8% 17.6%


- BABIP was unusually high in games 1-37, and very low in the last 15
- no surprises: fewer hits, and fewer of those hits are extra base hits
- HRs were already lower than in 08-09
- More P/PA in the last 15 (3.98 vs. 3.85), keeping the walk rate around 9%

Carlos Ruiz
For the Phillies' last 128 games (more than 3/4 of a season), you can arguably call Chooch the 2nd best hitter on the team. OPS since Aug 1, including 15 postseason games:

Werth .934
Ruiz .924
Howard .907
Utley .857
Rollins .798
Victorino .749
Ibanez .745
Feliz/Pol. .698