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9/8 Stat Notes - WPA, Feeble Marquee Stats, Popups

Best offensive performance -- WPA and OPS

JoshuaR had a fanpost a few days ago asking which Phillie has had the single best offensive performance this year.

The list below was in the comments, and I thought I would repeat it here. These are the top games in Win Probability Added. As a reminder, WPA is calculated for each at bat by looking at how that AB changed the team's probabilty of winning the game. For example, the winner is JRoll's game on 6/23, but in his first four at bats, he had WPAs of -.024, -.020, -.035, and -.030 for a total of -.108. His walk-off increased the Phils’ probability of winning by .709 (from .291 to 1.000), for the total of .601.

1. Rollins 6/23 .601 1-5, walk-off HR
2. Howard 4/10 .583 2-4, triple, HR, 3 RBI
3. Ruiz 8/12 .539 3-5, 3 RBIs, walk-off double
4. Ruiz 8/5 .506 3-5, 2 2B’s, HR in 10th
5. Polanco 8/1 .473 2-6, game winner in 11th
6. Ruiz 5/4 .454 2-3, 2B, walk-off HR in 10th
7. Werth 4/24 .451 2-4, 2 solo HR's, including go-ahead run in the top of the 9th in 3-2 win
8. Rollins 7/25 .441 2-4, drives in tying run, scores winning run on WP
9. Ruiz 5/10 .430 4-5, HR — after this game, he led the NL in OBP and was 12th in OPS
10. Howard 7/27 .395 2-4, HR, 3 RBI
11. Victorino 8/28 .388 2-4, go-ahead 3B in 7th
12. Ibanez 8/5 .385 3-4, RBI in the top of the 9th to bring score to 4-3, game tying run
13. Rollins 8/18 .372 3-5, 3 RBI, double short of cycle
14. Werth 6/23 .369 3-3, 2B, HR

This isn't necessarily what most people think of when they consider best offensive performances, but it does factor in timeliness, or "clutch". Also listed in the same fanpost comments are the highest single game OPS's this year:

1. Howard 6/18 4.250 4-4, double, triple, 2 HRs, 3 RBIs, 3 runs
2. Werth, 7/23 3.333 3 for 3, 2B, HR, BB
3. Victorino 5/10 2.833 2 for 3, 2 triples, 3 walks
4. Ruiz 8/23 2.750 1 for 2, HR, 2 walks
4. Ibanez 6/19 2.750 2 for 3, 2B, HR, BB
4. Werth 5/6 2.750 3 for 4, 2 doubles, HR, 3 RBI
4. Utley 5/20 2.750 1 for 2, HR, 2 walks, 3 runs

Marquee Stats

The Phillies have a good chance of making the playoffs, but I got to thinking what the initial TBS broadcasts would look like as batter after batter came up with stats that have been decimated by slumps and injuries. Below are the 2009 full year stats, compared to the 2010 projected ending numbers (extrapolating current stats with essentially full playing time the rest of the way):

2009 Final 2010 Projections Difference
AVG HR RBI AVG HR RBI AVG HR RBI
Rollins .250 21 77 Rollins .240 9 47 1st -.010 -12 -30
Victorino .292 10 62 Polanco .309 7 56 2nd .017 -3 -6
Utley .282 31 93 Utley .270 15 64 3rd -.012 -16 -29
Howard .279 45 141 Howard .277 32 104 4th -.002 -13 -37
Werth .268 36 99 Werth .293 23 76 5th .025 -13 -23
Ibanez .272 34 93 Ibanez .262 15 80 6th -.010 -19 -13
Feliz .266 12 82 Victorino .257 20 71 7th -.009 8 -11
Ruiz .255 9 43 Ruiz .288 7 48 8th .033 -2 5

Kind of funny that Feliz and his .695 OPS would be 2nd in RBIs on the 2010 team.

Infield Popups

Finally, an interesting post by Rob Neyer... He deserves some credit for talking about Howard in a positive light for a change.

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