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Revisiting My Phillies Innings Pitched Projections

Worley has filled in nicely, averaging 5.8 innings per start. It's the glasses. Has to be.
Worley has filled in nicely, averaging 5.8 innings per start. It's the glasses. Has to be.

Back before the season started, I did a couple of posts in which I attempted to project how many innings per game the starters could be expected to pitch this season and, in turn, how many innings the bullpen could be expected to pitch. I thought now would be as good a time as any (okay, the midpoint of the season probably would have been a better time) to revisit these projections and see just how wrong I was.

Using Bill James' 2011 player projections, back in December I came up with these innings pitched per start numbers for the "Big Four":

[H]ere are the projected IP/S for next year:

Halladay: 7.66

Hamels: 6.64

Oswalt: 6.90

Lee: 7.45

So how have they actually done? Well, everyone but Hamels has come in a bit under their projected marks:

Halladay: 7.37

Hamels: 6.82

Oswalt: 5.49

Lee: 7.17

In the second article, I concluded that Phillies starting pitchers could reasonably have been expected to pitch about 7 innings per start and 1134 innings on the season. Assuming that the team would pitch a total of 1458 innings on the season, this left about 324 innings for the bullpen--an awesomely small total.

Let's see where things stand after 97 games.

Keep in mind, though, that Oswalt and Blanton have missed significant time and the team has relied on Worley and Kendrick to fill in more than I anticipated when I did my original projections.

On the season, Phillies starters have pitched a total of 633.31 innings, or 6.53 innings per start (for comparison's sake, the Braves currently sit at 6 IP/S and the Giants are at 6.1). Thus, with 883.33 total innings pitched on the season, the bullpen has pitched 250 innings so far.

At this pace, the Phillies will pitch a total of 1475.48 innings this season. 1057.86 of them will be pitched by starters. 417.62 will be pitched by the bullpen. So they are well behind the 324 bullpen innings pace I projected in February, but they are still on pace to improve on their league-leading 2010 total of 420 bullpen innings--and the team is on pace to pitch about 20 more innings in 2011 than they did in 2010.

Oh, and in closing, this little tidbit from February is amusing:

On the outside chance that Lidge, Madson, and Contreras manage to combine for 200 innings, that would leave just 123 and 2/3 innings to be split by the rest of the pen.

To date, Lidge, Madson and Contreras have pitched a combined 47.66 innings. 200 innings? Imagine that!