The late 1990s were a dark time for the Philadelphia Phillies and their fans. Which is to say, rather than watch the game, most of us just got blackout drunk and checked the box scores the next morning.
One of the good things that putrid baseball gets you is some sweet draft positioning. After blowing it in 1997 and selected J.D. Drew (boo) second overall, only to not sign him, the Phillies fouled the bed so badly in the 1997 season that they earned the first overall draft pick in the 1998 amateur draft.
Some years there is a consensus first overall pick. 1998 was one of those years. And that pick was Pat Burrell.
Burrell, the 1998 Golden Spikes Award winner at the University of Miami, would go on to have a productive Major League career, winning a World Series with the Phillies in 2008, and the Giants in 2010, but there will always be talk that he failed to live up to his potential as a first overall pick. But did he?
Year | Tm | | Pos | WAR ▾ | Type | Drafted Out of |
1993 |
Mariners |
Alex Rodriguez (minors) |
SS |
104.6 |
HS |
Westminster Christian (Miami, FL) |
1990 |
Braves |
Chipper Jones (minors) |
SS |
82.7 |
HS |
Bolles HS (Jacksonville, FL) |
1987 |
Mariners |
Ken Griffey (minors) |
OF |
78.6 |
HS |
Moeller HS (Cincinnati, OH) |
1980 |
Mets |
Darryl Strawberry (minors) |
OF |
42.9 |
HS |
Crenshaw HS (Los Angeles, CA) |
2001 |
Twins |
Joe Mauer (minors) |
C |
40.3 |
HS |
Cretin HS (St. Paul, MN) |
1977 |
White Sox |
Harold Baines (minors) |
1B |
37.0 |
HS |
St. Michael's HS (Easton, MD) |
1985 |
Brewers |
B.J. Surhoff (minors) |
SS |
34.4 |
4Yr |
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Chapel Hill, NC) |
1965 |
Athletics |
Rick Monday (minors) |
OF |
32.7 |
4Yr |
Arizona State University (Tempe, AZ) |
1988 |
Padres |
Andy Benes (minors) |
RHP |
29.6 |
4Yr |
University of Evansville (Evansville, IN) |
2000 |
Marlins |
Adrian Gonzalez (minors) |
1B |
28.2 |
HS |
Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA) |
1995 |
Angels |
Darin Erstad (minors) |
OF |
27.8 |
4Yr |
University of Nebraska at Lincoln (Lincoln, NE) |
1981 |
Mariners |
Mike Moore (minors) |
RHP |
24.9 |
4Yr |
Oral Roberts University (Tulsa, OK) |
1983 |
Twins |
Tim Belcher (minors) |
RHP |
24.6 |
4Yr |
Mount Vernon Nazarene University (Mount Vernon, OH) |
1976 |
Astros |
Floyd Bannister (minors) |
LHP |
24.1 |
4Yr |
Arizona State University (Tempe, AZ) |
1978 |
Braves |
Bob Horner (minors) |
3B |
21.0 |
4Yr |
Arizona State University (Tempe, AZ) |
1999 |
Devil Rays |
Josh Hamilton (minors) |
OF |
20.2 |
HS |
Athens Drive HS (Raleigh, NC) |
1989 |
Orioles |
Ben McDonald (minors) |
RHP |
19.8 |
4Yr |
Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, LA) |
1998 |
Phillies |
Pat Burrell (minors) |
3B |
18.7 |
4Yr |
University of Miami (Coral Gables, FL) |
1969 |
Senators |
Jeff Burroughs (minors) |
OF |
17.2 |
HS |
Woodrow Wilson HS (Long Beach, CA) |
1992 |
Astros |
Phil Nevin (minors) |
3B |
15.9 |
4Yr |
California State University Fullerton (Fullerton, CA) |
1986 |
Pirates |
Jeff King (minors) |
SS |
14.7 |
4Yr |
University of Arkansas (Fayetteville, AR) |
2005 |
Diamondbacks |
Justin Upton (minors) |
SS |
11.5 |
HS |
Great Bridge HS (Chesapeake, VA) |
1996 |
Pirates |
Kris Benson (minors) |
RHP |
11.0 |
4Yr |
Clemson University (Clemson, SC) |
2007 |
Devil Rays |
David Price (minors) |
LHP |
10.4 |
4Yr |
Vanderbilt University (Nashville, TN) |
1982 |
Cubs |
Shawon Dunston (minors) |
SS |
10.0 |
HS |
Thomas Jefferson HS (Brooklyn, NY) |
1967 |
Yankees |
Ron Blomberg (minors) |
1B |
8.7 |
HS |
Druid Hills HS (Decatur, GA) |
1970 |
Padres |
Mike Ivie (minors) |
C |
7.2 |
HS |
Walker HS (Decatur, GA) |
1974 |
Padres |
Bill Almon (minors) |
SS |
2.7 |
4Yr |
Brown University (Providence, RI) |
2009 |
Nationals |
Stephen Strasburg (minors) |
RHP |
2.1 |
4Yr |
San Diego State University (San Diego, CA) |
1968 |
Mets |
Tim Foli (minors) |
SS |
1.2 |
HS |
Notre Dame HS (Sherman Oaks, CA) |
2006 |
Royals |
Luke Hochevar (minors) |
RHP |
1.1 |
|
|
1994 |
Mets |
Paul Wilson (minors) |
RHP |
0.5 |
4Yr |
Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) |
1973 |
Rangers |
David Clyde (minors) |
LHP |
0.4 |
HS |
Westchester HS (Houston, TX) |
2003 |
Devil Rays |
Delmon Young (minors) |
OF |
-0.2 |
HS |
Adolfo Camarillo HS (Camarillo, CA) |
2002 |
Pirates |
Bryan Bullington (minors) |
RHP |
-0.4 |
4Yr |
Ball State University (Muncie, IN) |
1979 |
Mariners |
Al Chambers (minors) |
OF |
-0.7 |
HS |
John Harris HS (Harrisburg, PA) |
1972 |
Padres |
Dave Roberts (minors) |
3B |
-0.7 |
4Yr |
University of Oregon (Eugene, OR) |
1984 |
Mets |
Shawn Abner (minors) |
OF |
-1.3 |
HS |
Mechanicsburg Area HS (Mechanicsburg, PA) |
1997 |
Tigers |
Matt Anderson (minors) |
RHP |
-1.4 |
4Yr |
Rice University (Houston, TX) |
1975 |
Angels |
Danny Goodwin (minors) |
C |
-1.4 |
4Yr |
Southern University and A&M College (Baton Rouge, LA) |
1971 |
White Sox |
Danny Goodwin (minors) |
C |
-1.4 |
HS |
Peoria Central HS (Peoria, IL) |
2011 |
Pirates |
Gerrit Cole (minors) |
RHP |
|
4Yr |
University of California, Los Angeles (Los Angeles, CA) |
2010 |
Nationals |
Bryce Harper (minors) |
OF |
|
JC |
College of Southern Nevada (Henderson, NV) |
2008 |
Rays |
Tim Beckham (minors) |
SS |
|
HS |
Griffin HS (Griffin, GA) |
2004 |
Padres |
Matt Bush (minors) |
SS |
|
HS |
Mission Bay HS (San Diego, CA) |
1991 |
Yankees |
Brien Taylor (minors) |
LHP |
|
HS |
East Carteret HS (Beaufort, NC) |
1966 |
Mets |
Steven Chilcott (minors) |
C |
|
HS |
Antelope Valley HS (Lancaster, CA) |
There are all of the first overall amateur draft picks since the introduction of the June draft in 1965, ranked by order of rWAR. Bask in it. Can we really conclude anything?
There's obviously a "top tier" here -- Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, and Ken Griffey, Jr. -- three Hall of Fame talents with a pile of MVP awards between them.
Also: B.J. Surhoff had himself a pretty nice career, huh?
Burrell occupies a no-man's land between the productive regulars on the list and the washouts/disappointments. And if you think about it, Burrell's career was injury-shortened/plagued, and just a little disappointing. But he was no Steven Chilcott, Antelope Valley High School Class of 1966. Also incidentally, the alma mater of Frank Zappa and Don Vilet, aka Captain Beefheart. The more you know...
Maybe the important question to ask is whether the Phillies could have done better selecting someone else from that draft class. Who's been the best player from the 1998 draft? Here's the first round, ranked by rWAR.
Year | OvPck | Tm | | Pos | WAR ▾ | Type | Drafted Out of |
1998 |
20 |
Indians |
CC Sabathia (minors) |
LHP |
49.8 |
HS |
Vallejo HS (Vallejo, CA) |
1998 |
5 |
Cardinals |
J.D. Drew (minors) |
OF |
45.9 |
4Yr |
Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) |
1998 |
35 |
White Sox |
*Aaron Rowand (minors) |
OF |
20.2 |
4Yr |
California State University Fullerton (Fullerton, CA) |
1998 |
1 |
Phillies |
Pat Burrell (minors) |
3B |
18.7 |
4Yr |
University of Miami (Coral Gables, FL) |
1998 |
2 |
Athletics |
Mark Mulder (minors) |
LHP |
16.3 |
4Yr |
Michigan State University (East Lansing, MI) |
1998 |
7 |
Reds |
Austin Kearns (minors) |
OF |
15.8 |
HS |
Lafayette HS (Lexington, KY) |
1998 |
10 |
Rangers |
Carlos Pena (minors) |
1B |
15.2 |
4Yr |
Northeastern University (Boston, MA) |
1998 |
43 |
Yankees |
*Mark Prior (minors) |
RHP |
13.7 |
HS |
University HS (San Diego, CA) |
1998 |
14 |
Tigers |
Jeff Weaver (minors) |
RHP |
13.3 |
4Yr |
California State University Fresno (Fresno, CA) |
1998 |
33 |
Expos |
*Brad Wilkerson (minors) |
OF |
10.3 |
4Yr |
University of Florida (Gainesville, FL) |
1998 |
22 |
Mariners |
Matt Thornton (minors) |
LHP |
9.4 |
4Yr |
Grand Valley State University (Allendale, MI) |
1998 |
17 |
Astros via Rockies
|
*Brad Lidge (minors) |
RHP |
8.3 |
4Yr |
University of Notre Dame (South Bend, IN) |
1998 |
12 |
Red Sox |
Adam Everett (minors) |
SS |
7.9 |
4Yr |
University of South Carolina (Columbia, SC) |
1998 |
8 |
Blue Jays |
Felipe Lopez (minors) |
SS |
7.1 |
HS |
Lake Brantley HS (Altamonte Springs, FL) |
1998 |
3 |
Cubs |
Corey Patterson (minors) |
OF |
6.2 |
HS |
Harrison HS (Kennesaw, GA) |
1998 |
16 |
White Sox |
Kip Wells (minors) |
RHP |
6.2 |
4Yr |
Baylor University (Waco, TX) |
1998 |
9 |
Padres |
Sean Burroughs (minors) |
3B |
1.1 |
HS |
Woodrow Wilson HS (Long Beach, CA) |
1998 |
21 |
Mets |
Jason Tyner (minors) |
OF |
0.1 |
4Yr |
Texas A&M University (College Station, TX) |
1998 |
34 |
Tigers |
*Nate Cornejo (minors) |
RHP |
0.1 |
HS |
Wellington HS (Wellington, KS) |
1998 |
27 |
Marlins |
Chip Ambres (minors) |
OF |
-0.1 |
HS |
West Brook HS (Beaumont, TX) |
1998 |
28 |
Rockies via Braves
|
*Matt Roney (minors) |
RHP |
-0.1 |
HS |
Edmond North HS (Edmond, OK) |
1998 |
42 |
Phillies |
*Eric Valent (minors) |
OF |
-0.1 |
4Yr |
University of California, Los Angeles (Los Angeles, CA) |
1998 |
19 |
Giants via Astros
|
*Tony Torcato (minors) |
3B |
-0.2 |
HS |
Woodland HS (Woodland, CA) |
1998 |
18 |
Angels |
Seth Etherton (minors) |
RHP |
-0.7 |
4Yr |
University of Southern California (Los Angeles, CA) |
1998 |
25 |
Giants |
Nate Bump (minors) |
RHP |
-0.7 |
4Yr |
Pennsylvania State University (State College, PA) |
1998 |
32 |
Cardinals |
*Ben Diggins (minors) |
1B |
-0.8 |
HS |
Bradshaw Mountain HS (Dewey, AZ) |
1998 |
23 |
Dodgers |
Bubba Crosby (minors) |
OF |
-1.0 |
4Yr |
Rice University (Houston, TX) |
1998 |
31 |
Royals |
*Chris George (minors) |
LHP |
-1.0 |
HS |
Klein HS (Spring, TX) |
1998 |
4 |
Royals |
Jeff Austin (minors) |
RHP |
-1.1 |
4Yr |
Stanford University (Palo Alto, CA) |
1998 |
36 |
Rockies |
*Choo Freeman (minors) |
OF |
-1.5 |
HS |
Dallas Christian HS (Rowlett, TX) |
1998 |
6 |
Twins |
Ryan Mills (minors) |
LHP |
|
4Yr |
Arizona State University (Tempe, AZ) |
1998 |
11 |
Expos |
Josh McKinley (minors) |
SS |
|
HS |
Malvern Prep HS (Malvern, PA) |
1998 |
13 |
Brewers |
J.M. Gold (minors) |
RHP |
|
HS |
Toms River North HS (Toms River, NJ) |
1998 |
15 |
Pirates |
Clint Johnston (minors) |
LHP |
|
4Yr |
Vanderbilt University (Nashville, TN) |
1998 |
24 |
Yankees |
Andy Brown (minors) |
OF |
|
HS |
Richmond HS (Richmond, IN) |
1998 |
26 |
Orioles |
Rick Elder (minors) |
OF |
|
HS |
Spayberry HS (Marietta, GA) |
1998 |
29 |
Giants via Devil Rays
|
*Arturo McDowell (minors) |
OF |
|
HS |
Forest Hill HS (West Palm Beach, FL) |
1998 |
30 |
Royals via Diamondbacks
|
*Matt Burch (minors) |
RHP |
|
4Yr |
Virginia Commonwealth University (Richmond, VA) |
1998 |
37 |
Astros |
*Mike Nannini (minors) |
RHP |
|
HS |
Green Valley HS (Henderson, NV) |
1998 |
38 |
Giants |
*Chris Jones (minors) |
LHP |
|
HS |
South Mecklenburg HS (Charlotte, NC) |
1998 |
39 |
Orioles |
*Mamon Tucker (minors) |
OF |
|
HS |
S. F. Austin HS (Austin, TX) |
1998 |
40 |
Rockies |
*Jeff Winchester (minors) |
C |
|
HS |
Archbishop Rummel HS (Metairie, LA) |
1998 |
41 |
Giants |
*Jeff Urban (minors) |
LHP |
|
4Yr |
Ball State University (Muncie, IN) |
So there's what whole matter of CC Sabathia, then there's J.D. Drew. Sabathia was an unusual prospect due to his size, and there's no way they were drafting Drew again. Other notables in later rounds include Adam Dunn (2nd round, 50th - 24.0 rWAR); Matt Holliday (7th round, 210th - 30.9 rWAR); and the second highest rWAR total (46.3) from the 1998 draft comes from none other than Mark Buehrle, selected in the 38th round, 1139th overall.
The amateur draft is not a crapshoot per se, but with Buehrle more than doubling Burrell's rWAR total (and counting), it's obvious that draft remains somewhat unpredictable. Burrell was the clear "consensus" pick. And while Burrell didn't become the same caliber of player as Alex Rodriguez or Chipper Jones, he also wasn't Shawn Abner. He was still a productive contributor on two World Championship teams.
For your consideration: If you were Ken Griffey, Jr., would you trade your career for Pat Burrell's? Personal accolades, hardware, and a ticket to the Hall of Fame, or two World Series rings?